#vawx — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #vawx, aggregated by home.social.
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605141451-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605141451-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605141451-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605141451-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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[Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=LWX&sts=202605140000&ets=202605140000
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[Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=LWX&sts=202605140000&ets=202605140000
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[Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=LWX&sts=202605140000&ets=202605140000
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[Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=LWX&sts=202605140000&ets=202605140000
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.
South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.
Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.
South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.
Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.
South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.
Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.
The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.
The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.
The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.
The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.
A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.
The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.
The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
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Good morning from Caroline County Virginia! Current temperature is 55 degrees Fahrenheit on the way up to 63 F. Dew Point is 53 F, and humidity is 62%. Mainly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Air quality is Low (20 AQI).
#VAwx Data by NWS Wakefield, data table by WeatherMate App, Air quality info by Plume Air
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Good morning from Caroline County Virginia! Current temperature is 55 degrees Fahrenheit on the way up to 63 F. Dew Point is 53 F, and humidity is 62%. Mainly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Air quality is Low (20 AQI).
#VAwx Data by NWS Wakefield, data table by WeatherMate App, Air quality info by Plume Air
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Good morning from Caroline County Virginia! Current temperature is 55 degrees Fahrenheit on the way up to 63 F. Dew Point is 53 F, and humidity is 62%. Mainly cloudy with slight chance of showers. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Air quality is Low (20 AQI).
#VAwx Data by NWS Wakefield, data table by WeatherMate App, Air quality info by Plume Air
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LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140911-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
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LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140911-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
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LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140911-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
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LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140911-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140801-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140801-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140801-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140801-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140631-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIHGR
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HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140631-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIHGR
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HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140631-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIHGR
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HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140631-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIHGR
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140130-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202605140130-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX