#gulfofmexico — Public Fediverse posts

#Isaias #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx #SCwx #NCwx

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Storm Isaias Update: Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening over the Gulf this afternoon and is forecast to become a Hurricane on Thursday, and it looks like it will. It remains about 520 Miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River; it'll bring significant impacts to parts of Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and the Eastern Louisiana Coast. These areas should be preparing for a hurricane. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass.

📌North Carolina impacts? The center will not move directly over NC, but as the system moves northward, it'll interact with a frontal system, which will bring indirect outbands and impacts from Isaias to NC. I know there is a lot of concern and a lot of PTSD; this is not a repeat of Helene by any means at all. Let's talk about it; I know everyone has plans outside it appears this weekend. I don't expect an all-weekend washout at all. Thursday and Friday will be very nice, no weather impacts.

The wildcards are Saturday and Sunday, and timing remains really all over the place, and I'm not committing to rainfall amounts right now either. Right now, it looks like rain chances are hit or miss, and bands will move in on Saturday from south to north, becoming more numerous by the afternoon and into the overnight Saturday. Rainfall amounts: It'll be bands and not even, but some spots will pick up 1-3 inches; the higher odds right now look to be in Eastern/Coastal NC and parts of the mountains. We could see if some higher bands set up some localized flooding that looks to be in the Blue Ridge Escarpment and maybe Eastern NC. However, the situation is fluid, so stay tuned as we fine-tune the amounts.

There could be some gusty winds Saturday into Sunday 25-35MPH statewide from the low level jet above with some locally higher gusts in the higher terrains of the mountains; can't rule out some isolated to scattered power outages in the mountains.

There could be a low/spotty tornado threat Sunday, but that is fluid, and we are not sure about that yet. Will know more in the next 48 hours.

The Bottom Line: The world is not ending in NC; don't fall for hype trying to scare you. We will have scattered, hit-or-miss rain chances this weekend; it won't be a nice, sunny weekend, but it also won't be a complete washout. The greatest period for showers, hit or miss, looks to be Saturday PM into Sunday midday, becoming more isolated Sunday afternoon. The Flash Flooding threat is overall low, but given we're still 36 hours out it could ramp up some or ramp down, so stay aware for some localized stuff, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and mainly isolated chance along the coast. We will check back on the Tornado threat; it'll be just fine. I'll hopefully be able to give you even more weekend thoughts over the next 24 hours, as more data is just being fed into the models from recon planes. There is no reason to say something now and change it 100 times. I'll keep you posted.

-Ethan

@AE4WX @DismalManorGang @ai6yr @firefly @uccawx

Updates on Isaias continue. Latest, 10am EST

Trop Storm Isaias gathering energy, getting stronger, as anticipated.

Surge hazard from W Ms coast, throughout La and Al coast to W Fl Panhandle coast. peak expected Ms coast, 5-7ft.

Rainfall won't be storm's strongest suit, early Friday on, avg 3-6in along watch area, with maximum projected 10in core.

Pressure drop remains unimpressive. No well defined eye, still.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071453.shtml?

#Weather #TropicalStormIsaias #GulfOfMexico #NHC #NOAA

Slides in the Sky

Waterslides on the cruise ship Carnival Magic as it sails in the Gulf of Mexico.

#photo #photooftheday #abstract #atlanticocean #bluesky #carnivalcruiselines #carnivalmagic #color #cruiseships #gulfofmexico #ocean #ships #sky #transportation #waterparks #waterslides

So far, Isaias looks like a strong Tropical Storm, but not particular large or well formed.

TS strength winds expected to about 45miles/75km from core. Pressure not too low, and no defined eye.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070852.shtml?

#Weather #GulfOfMexico #TropicalStormIsaias #NHC #NOAA

Now dubbed "Isaias" the system is bubbling East of its previous position.

Strong, but still not as well formed. Core of the storm continues to be a collection of vortices, dancing around a center, but no defined eye, yet.

Landfall seems to shift E a bit, Over or E of Mobile, and projected post-tropical remainder depression falling shorter now SW Indiana instead of NE Illinois, may indicate weaker projection.

https://goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ga&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&src=nhc

#Weather #GulfOfMexico #TropicalStormIsaias #NHC #NOAA

#Isaias #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico #NCwx

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Update: Here we go. Tropical Storm Isaias developed this morning 580 miles Southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows it rapidly strengthening to a strong Category 2 Hurricane with 110 MPH winds by Friday, then weakening somewhat before making landfall somewhere along the Mississippi/Louisiana line and the Florida Panhandle late Friday into Saturday. Hurricane & Storm Surge Watches should go up there later today; folks with interests along the Northern Gulf Coast should begin preparing for an impactful hurricane. NC will see limited/direct/indirect impacts to NC late Saturday into Sunday; uncertainties remain, but significant impacts are NOT expected!

1. Isaias is strengthening this morning in a favorable pocket of warm Gulf waters and low wind shear; it is expected to become a hurricane, and model guidance is pretty robust on this happening, but the extent to which how strong is still fluid. Wind shear is expected to increase on approach to the Northern Gulf Coast late Fri/Sat, which will weaken it; it is still expected to be a strong Cat 1, low-end Cat 2 at landfall. There is a

2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind & storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

3. NC Impacts: Limited. We will have very nice weather through Friday night enjoy. On Saturday, as the system approaches the coast, it'll interact with a frontal system over the SE, allowing it to expand as it moves northward. The current forecast puts the system center over the Tennessee Valley late Sat/Sun, but the rain shield should expand east. At this point, scattered/isolated shower chances increase across the state late Saturday & into Sunday. Still too much uncertainty to say exact amounts or if it's a washout. So stay tuned; a limited localized flood threat can't be ruled out, mainly west if models shift. Nothing too concerning right now. Some breezy condtions and maybe an isolated tornado threat could develop?? No reason to panic at all in NC!

@AE4WX @DismalManorGang @ai6yr @uccawx

#Isaias #ServereWeather #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx #gulfofmexico #TNwx #NCwx #SCwx

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...22.0N 94.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the U.S. northern
Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane Watches will likely be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK: At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or
two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of
Campeche and western Yucatan.

From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the northern U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far
southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

SURF: Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY: Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

@AE4WX #Firefly @DismalManorGang @ai6yr @uccawx

THUS FAR, doesn't seem particularly bad. They are slapping a up-to-Cat2 on this one out of prudence. Too early to place a sure bet, but it's looking like a Cat1.

System organized quickly, but not particularly well. So far, no defined eye, for instance, just a collection of vortices dancing around a proto eye/focus, that you can only really discern in IR. See Sat Imagery for details.

https://goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ga&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&src=nhc

#Weather #GulfOfMexico #TropicalDepressionNine #HurricaneIsaias #NHC #NOAA

TD1 now Trop Depression Nine, slatted to become up to Cat1-2 hurricane by late Thursday. Likely landfall, so far, between Ms and Al.

Edit: storm dubbed "Isaias"

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070254.shtml?

#Weather #TD9 #GulfOfMexico #Caribbean #Louisiana #Mississippi #Alabama #Florida #NHC #NOAA

Gulf Storm Threat Could Put 3 Million Bpd of Refining Capacity at Risk

By ZeroHedge – Oct 06, 2026, 11:00 AM CDT The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was…
#EuropeSays #Headlines #News #Europe #Europa #EU #PersianGulf #gas #GulfofMexico #Louisiana #Oil #refining #TropicalStorm
https://www.europesays.com/iran/320270/

https://www.europesays.com/iran/320270/ Gulf Storm Threat Could Put 3 Million Bpd of Refining Capacity at Risk #gas #GulfOfMexico #Louisiana #Oil #PersianGulf #refining #TropicalStorm

Ah joy, just in time to go camping this weekend near central Illinois...
https://m.ai6yr.org/@BakerRL75/117395990141163171

#ilwx #illinois #hurricane #tropicaloutlook #gulfofmexico

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico

From meteorologist Matt DiNardo WRIC on FB: Tropical Depression #9 forms.... At 4:40pm Tuesday, the tropical disturbance that we were watching is now Tropical Depression #9. This could become Tropical Storm Isaias in the next 24 hours and then possibly hurricane Isaias by Thursday.
wwric.com/weather #8News #RVA #VAWX
@DismalManorGang @AE4WX @firefly @ai6yr @uccawx

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Invest 92L soon to be Isaias has become better defined this afternoon, and should become a Tropical Depression or Storm soon. I’m starting to see signs of low-level circulation, which suggests it’s on its way to becoming a Tropical Storm or Depression over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 100% chance of development.

I’ll have more thoughts later; enjoy the gorgeous weather here in NC.

@ai6yr @AE4WX @firefly @DismalManorGang @uccawx

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWesther #GulfofMexico

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Update: Well, even though it is October, if you’ve been around long enough, tropical storms/ hurricanes can still develop! All eyes are on the Southwestern Gulf, where Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure this morning. The National Hurricane Center has raised the odds of development to 90%; the system is already looking better today. I think it will develop into at least a Tropical Storm over the next 48-72 hours, and I can’t rule out a Hurricane before landfall along the Gulf Coast at this point. The next name is Isaias.

1. The system is facing some obstacles; the faster it develops and moves northeastward, the stronger it’ll get. Why? Well, it’ll have warm oceans to work with and a break in wind shear. Which should allow it to develop quickly. A slower system will feel more impacts from wind shear.

2. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. I’m monitoring the progress of this system closely too; it could bring leftover impacts to parts of the Southeast, including NC Sunday into Monday. However, details are unclear, and nothing is set in stone. We will watch to see if rain works in and, being on the east/right side of the storm somethings severe weather develops. I’ll have more thoughts later today! Nothing to panic about right now; just keep an eye out. We all know things change!

👀 The Bottom Line: It is likely to become a Tropical Storm/Depression over the next 48 hours, and turn northeastward into the middle of the Gulf. Impacts are possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida late week into the weekend. Hurricane Hunters will begin heading into the system later today. It is too soon to know whether it'll bring any real impacts to North Carolina, but there's potential for at least some direct/indirect impacts, including rain, Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned; I'll be providing regular updates until further notice.

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @firefly @DismalManorGang

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

From Chief Meteorologist Jamie Arnold WMBF on FB: TUESDAY AM TROPICAL UPDATE - Chances of development are now at a 90% with this area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf. Continued development is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form later today or by tomorrow.

Hurricane Hunters will begin investigating this system later today.

While no direct impacts are expected in our area, an increase in tropical moisture and rain chances are likely as the system moves into the Deep South this weekend.

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang @firefly

I didn't realize that #theweatherchannel is using #GulfOfAmerica instead of #gulfofmexico until this morning when I checked on a tropical depression. Disgusting. Now I have to give up using that channel because they're Trump sycophants. I really hate what's happening to this country #weather #news #cowards

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Good morning!! If you know me anytime there’s even a remote chance of something tropical impacting or near by, it is time to lock in. So it’s an early-morning hand analyzing the model data and atmospheric conditions in the Gulf and downstream from it. After this past weekend's model and forecasting failure, I’m not taking any chances. Invest 92L, located in the southern Gulf, has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 48 hours. The next name on the list is Isaias 🫠. Interest along the Gulf Coast states should monitor the progress of this system closely.

North Carolina could see the remnants, along with a front, late this weekend that could bring at least rain chances, but nothing is set in stone. I’ll have more thoughts later today; you know I’ll keep you updated.

-Ethan

@ai6yr @AE4WX @DismalManorGang @uccawx

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift east-northeastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang @firefly

#PublicRadio Station Forced to Call #GulfOfMexico the #GulfOfAmerica

The #UniversityOfAlabama at #Birmingham is rolling over to #Trump and his acolytes in the state, rather than stand up for editorial independence.

Seth Stern, Clayton Weimers
October 2 2026

"The Alabama legislature passed a bill in late March requiring all state and local entities to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the 'Gulf of America,' in line with one of the many executive orders Trump signed on his first day in office. The legislation does not set forth penalties for noncompliance, but its sponsor, state Rep. David Standridge, called it 'an opportunity to make a patriotic statement' on the House floor in January. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, a Trump ally, signed the bill into law.

"Birmingham public radio station WBHM told its listeners in a letter from Will Dahlberg, the station’s executive director and general manager, that due to the law, which took effect October 1, the University of Alabama at Birmingham is forcing it to use the legislature’s preferred language in its reporting. The move puts it at odds with #NPR, of which it is a member station; The #AssociatedPress, which publishes the style guide used by newsrooms across the country; and other journalistic institutions. The station is licensed to the university, making its employees both state and #UAB employees. Still, #WBHM ’s Journalism Code of Integrity emphasizes the newsroom’s independence and states that the university 'should not — and cannot — expect to exert influence on WBHM’s journalists and its independent editorial process.'

"Dahlberg wrote that not implementing the new language 'may result in disciplinary action or termination of employees and affect WBHM’s relationship and support from UAB.' But nothing in the law requires the university to discipline or fire anyone. In other words, the university took a toothless stunt of a law, gave it teeth, and used them to take a bite out of #PressFreedom."

Read more:
https://theintercept.com/2026/10/02/gulf-america-university-alabama-birmingham-wbhm/

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/Mw0Ls

#SilencingDissent #PressFreedom #FirstAmendment #CollegeRadio #PublicRadio #USPo #CharacteristicsOfFascism

Uh oh

TD1 is organizing better and faster than what I'd like to see. TD1 is moving N,expected to shift NNE within 24-48hrs and inshallah doesn't come to pass, but the stream of winds would strengthen shift it further to ENE.

There is no advisory, yet, for TD1, but keep an eye on it.

#Weather #GulfOfMexico #Caribbean #Mexico #US #NHC #NOAA

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Tropical Update: All eyes will be on the Gulf this week. We are monitoring a developing low-pressure system in the Southwestern Gulf over the Bay of Campeche that has a growing potential to become a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 5-7 days. This morning, the National Hurricane Center raised the odds of development to 70%. Environmental condtions are complex over the Gulf over the next few days and will not be a slam dunk, as considerable uncertainty remains.

A cold front over the Gulf Coast will enhance wind shear, which would favor a weaker system. However, this setup also favors shortwave troughs over that area at times, which would allow for lower wind shear, and the system could quickly get its act together over very warm Gulf waters. Models are all over the place, shocker; some get it's act together quickly and develop it into a Tropical Storm or even Hurricane by late week into the weekend before bringing it into parts of the Gulf Coast Saturday. Others are much weaker and manader it around in the Gulf with high wind shear (which tropical systems don't like).

The Bottom Line: There is significant uncertainty about the final outcome of this system, but folks interested along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress over the coming days. Here in NC, some models try to bring leftover moisture/ cirlcation north Sunday into Monday. So we will keep an eye on it to see if we get a surge of moisture. There is no reason to stress about it, but the forecast for the weekend after Saturday will remain complex here and along the Gulf until we get a better handle on this system. Stay tuned!

-Ethan
@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

Note: Here we go folks…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

@ai6yr @uccawx @DismalManorGang @AE4WX

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America:
A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of
Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang