As it is, Isaias still shows no well defined eye (see IR img), its vortex is a blob, with lots of top shearing (see trail of rain ENE)
#Weather #HurricaneIsaias #Ms #Al #Florida #GulfOfMexico #NHC #NOAA
#gulfofmexico — Public Fediverse posts
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At around 1600hrs L, Hurricane Isaias crossed into Cat2 (sustained over 96mph), spinning at 100mph (155kmh) and linear movement NNE 13mph/20kmh. pressure is 974mb/28.77in
This is likely peak for Isaias. Storm is slatted to make landfall mid day Friday, slightly E of its initial projected track, near Pensacola.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/082351.shtml?
#Weather #HurricaneIsaias #Ms #Al #Florida #GulfOfMexico #NHC #NOAA
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#Isaias #Hurricane #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Hurricane Isaias is located 385 SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River this Thursday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and higher gusts; the pressure is down to 975 mb. Additional strengthening is possible later today into Friday. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL. A Hurricane Warning is in effect fo Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft
Mobile Bay...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ftI’m reviewing the data this morning and looking at the atmospheric conditions. I’ll have a full update later this morning on the indirect outer impacts and the front-related impacts expected from this system to NC for the weekend. I'll post the update by 12PM. Stay tuned. I know there are a million questions, and my goal is to answer as many as possible.
-Ethan
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#Isaias #Hurricane #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx
BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT ISAIAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFOLOCATION...23.3N 91.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for: Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS; East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for: Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL…
…Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK: At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 91.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today followed by a turn northward on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast
within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure measured recently by NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data 979 mb (28.91 inches)…
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft
Mobile Bay...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves...
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night.
Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula later today.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through today across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan.
From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far
southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible…TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday for
eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.
SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office…
NEXT ADVISORYNext intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin -
#Isaias #Hurricane #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 NEW: Isaias rapidly strengthens into the first Hurricane of the 2026 season this evening. Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was 982 mb (29.00 inches). Pressure is dropping fast as well.
@AE4WX @DismalManorGang @firefly @ai6yr @uccawx -
#Isaias #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx #SCwx #NCwx
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Storm Isaias Update: Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening over the Gulf this afternoon and is forecast to become a Hurricane on Thursday, and it looks like it will. It remains about 520 Miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River; it'll bring significant impacts to parts of Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and the Eastern Louisiana Coast. These areas should be preparing for a hurricane. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass.
📌North Carolina impacts? The center will not move directly over NC, but as the system moves northward, it'll interact with a frontal system, which will bring indirect outbands and impacts from Isaias to NC. I know there is a lot of concern and a lot of PTSD; this is not a repeat of Helene by any means at all. Let's talk about it; I know everyone has plans outside it appears this weekend. I don't expect an all-weekend washout at all. Thursday and Friday will be very nice, no weather impacts.
The wildcards are Saturday and Sunday, and timing remains really all over the place, and I'm not committing to rainfall amounts right now either. Right now, it looks like rain chances are hit or miss, and bands will move in on Saturday from south to north, becoming more numerous by the afternoon and into the overnight Saturday. Rainfall amounts: It'll be bands and not even, but some spots will pick up 1-3 inches; the higher odds right now look to be in Eastern/Coastal NC and parts of the mountains. We could see if some higher bands set up some localized flooding that looks to be in the Blue Ridge Escarpment and maybe Eastern NC. However, the situation is fluid, so stay tuned as we fine-tune the amounts.
There could be some gusty winds Saturday into Sunday 25-35MPH statewide from the low level jet above with some locally higher gusts in the higher terrains of the mountains; can't rule out some isolated to scattered power outages in the mountains.
There could be a low/spotty tornado threat Sunday, but that is fluid, and we are not sure about that yet. Will know more in the next 48 hours.
The Bottom Line: The world is not ending in NC; don't fall for hype trying to scare you. We will have scattered, hit-or-miss rain chances this weekend; it won't be a nice, sunny weekend, but it also won't be a complete washout. The greatest period for showers, hit or miss, looks to be Saturday PM into Sunday midday, becoming more isolated Sunday afternoon. The Flash Flooding threat is overall low, but given we're still 36 hours out it could ramp up some or ramp down, so stay aware for some localized stuff, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and mainly isolated chance along the coast. We will check back on the Tornado threat; it'll be just fine. I'll hopefully be able to give you even more weekend thoughts over the next 24 hours, as more data is just being fed into the models from recon planes. There is no reason to say something now and change it 100 times. I'll keep you posted.
-Ethan
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Updates on Isaias continue. Latest, 10am EST
Trop Storm Isaias gathering energy, getting stronger, as anticipated.
Surge hazard from W Ms coast, throughout La and Al coast to W Fl Panhandle coast. peak expected Ms coast, 5-7ft.
Rainfall won't be storm's strongest suit, early Friday on, avg 3-6in along watch area, with maximum projected 10in core.
Pressure drop remains unimpressive. No well defined eye, still.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071453.shtml?
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Slides in the Sky
Waterslides on the cruise ship Carnival Magic as it sails in the Gulf of Mexico.
#photo #photooftheday #abstract #atlanticocean #bluesky #carnivalcruiselines #carnivalmagic #color #cruiseships #gulfofmexico #ocean #ships #sky #transportation #waterparks #waterslides
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So far, Isaias looks like a strong Tropical Storm, but not particular large or well formed.
TS strength winds expected to about 45miles/75km from core. Pressure not too low, and no defined eye.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070852.shtml?
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Now dubbed "Isaias" the system is bubbling East of its previous position.
Strong, but still not as well formed. Core of the storm continues to be a collection of vortices, dancing around a center, but no defined eye, yet.
Landfall seems to shift E a bit, Over or E of Mobile, and projected post-tropical remainder depression falling shorter now SW Indiana instead of NE Illinois, may indicate weaker projection.
https://goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ga&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&src=nhc
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#Isaias #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico #NCwx
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Update: Here we go. Tropical Storm Isaias developed this morning 580 miles Southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows it rapidly strengthening to a strong Category 2 Hurricane with 110 MPH winds by Friday, then weakening somewhat before making landfall somewhere along the Mississippi/Louisiana line and the Florida Panhandle late Friday into Saturday. Hurricane & Storm Surge Watches should go up there later today; folks with interests along the Northern Gulf Coast should begin preparing for an impactful hurricane. NC will see limited/direct/indirect impacts to NC late Saturday into Sunday; uncertainties remain, but significant impacts are NOT expected!
1. Isaias is strengthening this morning in a favorable pocket of warm Gulf waters and low wind shear; it is expected to become a hurricane, and model guidance is pretty robust on this happening, but the extent to which how strong is still fluid. Wind shear is expected to increase on approach to the Northern Gulf Coast late Fri/Sat, which will weaken it; it is still expected to be a strong Cat 1, low-end Cat 2 at landfall. There is a
2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind & storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. NC Impacts: Limited. We will have very nice weather through Friday night enjoy. On Saturday, as the system approaches the coast, it'll interact with a frontal system over the SE, allowing it to expand as it moves northward. The current forecast puts the system center over the Tennessee Valley late Sat/Sun, but the rain shield should expand east. At this point, scattered/isolated shower chances increase across the state late Saturday & into Sunday. Still too much uncertainty to say exact amounts or if it's a washout. So stay tuned; a limited localized flood threat can't be ruled out, mainly west if models shift. Nothing too concerning right now. Some breezy condtions and maybe an isolated tornado threat could develop?? No reason to panic at all in NC!
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#Isaias #ServereWeather #LAwx #MSwx #ALwx #FLwx #gulfofmexico #TNwx #NCwx #SCwx
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATIONLOCATION...22.0N 94.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the U.S. northern
Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane Watches will likely be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK: At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or
two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of
Campeche and western Yucatan.From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the northern U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far
southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
SURF: Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY: Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin -
THUS FAR, doesn't seem particularly bad. They are slapping a up-to-Cat2 on this one out of prudence. Too early to place a sure bet, but it's looking like a Cat1.
System organized quickly, but not particularly well. So far, no defined eye, for instance, just a collection of vortices dancing around a proto eye/focus, that you can only really discern in IR. See Sat Imagery for details.
https://goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ga&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&src=nhc
#Weather #GulfOfMexico #TropicalDepressionNine #HurricaneIsaias #NHC #NOAA
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TD1 now Trop Depression Nine, slatted to become up to Cat1-2 hurricane by late Thursday. Likely landfall, so far, between Ms and Al.
Edit: storm dubbed "Isaias"
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070254.shtml?
#Weather #TD9 #GulfOfMexico #Caribbean #Louisiana #Mississippi #Alabama #Florida #NHC #NOAA
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Gulf Storm Threat Could Put 3 Million Bpd of Refining Capacity at Risk
By ZeroHedge – Oct 06, 2026, 11:00 AM CDT The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was…
#EuropeSays #Headlines #News #Europe #Europa #EU #PersianGulf #gas #GulfofMexico #Louisiana #Oil #refining #TropicalStorm
https://www.europesays.com/iran/320270/ -
https://www.europesays.com/iran/320270/ Gulf Storm Threat Could Put 3 Million Bpd of Refining Capacity at Risk #gas #GulfOfMexico #Louisiana #Oil #PersianGulf #refining #TropicalStorm
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Ah joy, just in time to go camping this weekend near central Illinois...
https://m.ai6yr.org/@BakerRL75/117395990141163171 -
#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico
From meteorologist Matt DiNardo WRIC on FB: Tropical Depression #9 forms.... At 4:40pm Tuesday, the tropical disturbance that we were watching is now Tropical Depression #9. This could become Tropical Storm Isaias in the next 24 hours and then possibly hurricane Isaias by Thursday.
wwric.com/weather #8News #RVA #VAWX
@DismalManorGang @AE4WX @firefly @ai6yr @uccawx -
#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Invest 92L soon to be Isaias has become better defined this afternoon, and should become a Tropical Depression or Storm soon. I’m starting to see signs of low-level circulation, which suggests it’s on its way to becoming a Tropical Storm or Depression over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 100% chance of development.
I’ll have more thoughts later; enjoy the gorgeous weather here in NC.
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#TropicalOutlook #SevereWesther #GulfofMexico
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: 🌀 Tropical Update: Well, even though it is October, if you’ve been around long enough, tropical storms/ hurricanes can still develop! All eyes are on the Southwestern Gulf, where Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure this morning. The National Hurricane Center has raised the odds of development to 90%; the system is already looking better today. I think it will develop into at least a Tropical Storm over the next 48-72 hours, and I can’t rule out a Hurricane before landfall along the Gulf Coast at this point. The next name is Isaias.
1. The system is facing some obstacles; the faster it develops and moves northeastward, the stronger it’ll get. Why? Well, it’ll have warm oceans to work with and a break in wind shear. Which should allow it to develop quickly. A slower system will feel more impacts from wind shear.
2. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system.
3. I’m monitoring the progress of this system closely too; it could bring leftover impacts to parts of the Southeast, including NC Sunday into Monday. However, details are unclear, and nothing is set in stone. We will watch to see if rain works in and, being on the east/right side of the storm somethings severe weather develops. I’ll have more thoughts later today! Nothing to panic about right now; just keep an eye out. We all know things change!
👀 The Bottom Line: It is likely to become a Tropical Storm/Depression over the next 48 hours, and turn northeastward into the middle of the Gulf. Impacts are possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida late week into the weekend. Hurricane Hunters will begin heading into the system later today. It is too soon to know whether it'll bring any real impacts to North Carolina, but there's potential for at least some direct/indirect impacts, including rain, Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned; I'll be providing regular updates until further notice.
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#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico
From Chief Meteorologist Jamie Arnold WMBF on FB: TUESDAY AM TROPICAL UPDATE - Chances of development are now at a 90% with this area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf. Continued development is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form later today or by tomorrow.
Hurricane Hunters will begin investigating this system later today.
While no direct impacts are expected in our area, an increase in tropical moisture and rain chances are likely as the system moves into the Deep South this weekend.
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I didn't realize that #theweatherchannel is using #GulfOfAmerica instead of #gulfofmexico until this morning when I checked on a tropical depression. Disgusting. Now I have to give up using that channel because they're Trump sycophants. I really hate what's happening to this country #weather #news #cowards
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#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Good morning!! If you know me anytime there’s even a remote chance of something tropical impacting or near by, it is time to lock in. So it’s an early-morning hand analyzing the model data and atmospheric conditions in the Gulf and downstream from it. After this past weekend's model and forecasting failure, I’m not taking any chances. Invest 92L, located in the southern Gulf, has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 48 hours. The next name on the list is Isaias 🫠. Interest along the Gulf Coast states should monitor the progress of this system closely.
North Carolina could see the remnants, along with a front, late this weekend that could bring at least rain chances, but nothing is set in stone. I’ll have more thoughts later today; you know I’ll keep you updated.
-Ethan
