#natesilver — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #natesilver, aggregated by home.social.
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Reminder to anyone still listening to anything Nate Silver says... for whatever reason.
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Reminder to anyone still listening to anything Nate Silver says... for whatever reason.
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Reminder to anyone still listening to anything Nate Silver says... for whatever reason.
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Non-Gambling Mormon Cuts Loose With $10K Stake
It wasn’t the most typical of assignments: McKay Coppins got dispensation from his bishop along with a…
#NewsBeep #News #Mentalhealth #AU #Australia #GamblingAddiction #Health #MentalHealth #NateSilver #predictionmarkets #SportsBetting #SuperBowl
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/543966/ -
Non-Gambling Mormon Cuts Loose With $10K Stake
It wasn’t the most typical of assignments: McKay Coppins got dispensation from his bishop along with a…
#NewsBeep #News #Mentalhealth #AU #Australia #GamblingAddiction #Health #MentalHealth #NateSilver #predictionmarkets #SportsBetting #SuperBowl
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/543966/ -
Non-Gambling Mormon Cuts Loose With $10K Stake
It wasn’t the most typical of assignments: McKay Coppins got dispensation from his bishop along with a…
#NewsBeep #News #Mentalhealth #GamblingAddiction #Health #MentalHealth #NateSilver #predictionmarkets #SportsBetting #SuperBowl #UK #UnitedKingdom
https://www.newsbeep.com/uk/478467/ -
Are liberals abandoning #BlueSky for #X?
That’s what the headline reads in this #NewYorker article which forces the reader to consume #NateSilver musings before approaching the headline subject
Alternative #SocialMedia such as BlueSky or #Mastodon has seen a decline in posting volume following an initial anti #Twitter surge
The big question is why many liberals remained or have chosen to return to X given #Musk toxicity. Is it simply the #NetworkEffect?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/social-media-is-navigating-its-sectarian-phase
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I see a claim on Twitter that Americans reporting poor mental health are much more likely to be Ds, and those reporting excellent mental health are much more likely to be Rs. (The claim is from #NateSilver, but I've seen it elsewhere.)
1. Can't believe everything you read on the Internet.
2. Might be true.
3. I wonder if there's a relationship between mental health and party affiliation in Canada.
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Okay...
I've spent some time doing my own analysis on this, here are a few things.1. Yes, there are a lot of bad low quality #right leaning #polls showing up that are making it look like there's been a huge (as in, 7 point according to RCP) swing. This is all nonsense. However, it's moving reliable poll aggregators (#NateSilver, #538, #SilverBulliten, #FiveThirtyEight) about half a point more than it would otherwise.
2. #Polymarket numbers have everything to do with wishful thinking from #techbros, and I would 100% make money off it if I could be bothered to go through their asinine process of betting on their platform. (It involves #crypto)
3. Regardless of all that the polls, even high quality ones, have been more favorable to #Trump than to #Harris. Particularly in #SwingStates. (E.g. #Pennsylvania, #Michigan, #Wisconsin, #NorthCarolina, #Nevada, #Arizona)
4. This has been shown more from Trump gaining than in Harris losing any support. This means that some of the #undecided #voters are finally starting to say they'll support Trump.
5. Given that polls are typically off by 4.3%, anything, that puts the range of national polls at from 50.5:44.2 in favor of Harris to 45.9:48.6 in favor of Trump. The .5 to 1 point shift is not a game changer.
6. The one thing that is really significantly altered by the right-leaning polls is Pennsylvania, which goes from .1 in favor of Harris to .9 in favor of Harris.
7. Polls can shift dramatically. It would be totally normal for the polls to shift five points in one direction or the other in the coming weeks.Summary:
Polls have gone from an #ElectoralCollege dead heat to an #ElectoralCollege dead heat.
Polls are mostly tracking PA, meaning winning PA wins the race, which is the state most likely to be underreporting Harris support.
There is a significant chance that the only purpose of the polls was to make a case for challenging an #election #Republicans think they're going to lose.
Harris is substantially more likely to destroy Trump than vice versa.
I would say Harris remains the slight favorite, but every single actions - and every #vote - is massively important to winning in #November.
#Election2024 #2024Election #Harris2024 #HarrisWalz #HarrisWalz2024
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[Video] #NateSilver: #Democrats more than #doubled their #chance of #winning overnight.
Silver on Monday released an updated #forecast for the #presidential #election, and he has #KamalaHarris as a slight #favorite over Donald #Trump.
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‘Between The Temples’ Review: Nathan Silver Drama Finds Harmony In Healing – Sundance Film Festival
#Festivals #Reviews #BetweenTheTemples #CarolKane #JasonSchwartzman #NateSilver #Sundance #SundanceFilmFestival -
Fetterman mocks Nate Silver over Senate dress code: ‘I dress like you predict’
#Fetterman #NateSilver #SenateDressCode #Mocking #Predict #DressLike #Politics #News
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I’m the one talking above the blacked out parts. A college friend is pretty sure he knows what Mastodon is all about. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t. 🙄 #NateSilver #AntiFragility