#natesilver — Public Fediverse posts

Nate Silver’s model is screaming: Trump is underwater, the House is slipping, and gas is at $4.11. Approval at 41.8%, disapproval at 56.1%. The forecast pegs a Democratic flip at 85–90%.

The numbers don’t lie, even when the press corps tries to grade them on a curve. The empire is sweating, and the spreadsheet is the only thing telling the truth.

#Election2026 #NateSilver #Midterms #Politics #Data #Trump #GasPrices #Democracy #Voting #News #Georgia #Michigan
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https://www.fogolf.com/1316466/trumps-entire-plan-fell-apart-in-iran/ Trump’s Entire Plan FELL APART In Iran… #AirForceOne #AntiTrump #AssassinationThreat #BreakingNews #Denmark #Donald #DonaldTrump #DonaldTrumpGolf #Greenland #IranCeasefire #IranDeal #IranMou #IranWar #liberal #NateSilver #NatoSummit #PoliticalCommentary #Politics #PoliticsToday #progressive #ProgressiveNews #QatarPlane #rof #SpainTrade #TheRingOfFire #trofire #trump #TrumpApproval #TrumpForeignPolicy #TrumpGolf #TrumpIran #Türkiye #UsNews #WhiteHouseNews #WorldCup

So, Ben Welsh made a list of #FiveThirtyEight articles on the Internet Archive. 🎉🚀 Wow, how groundbreaking! Because everyone was just dying to read 21,350 pages of Nate Silver predicting the obvious... over and over. 📈🔮 Who knew indexing old blog posts could be the pinnacle of internet innovation? 🤦‍♂️
https://fivethirtyeightindex.com/ #InternetArchive #NateSilver #BloggingInnovation #InternetHistory #HackerNews #ngated

New York Times: Thousands of FiveThirtyEight Articles Seemingly Vanish From the Internet . This link goes to a gift article. “An archived website of FiveThirtyEight, a data journalism publication known for its polling analysis and election models, is now redirecting readers to ABC News, its owner and former host. As a result, many thousands of articles stretching back to FiveThirtyEight’s […]

Why You Should Never, Ever Listen To #NateSilver

via @wallabag

https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver

Are liberals abandoning #BlueSky for #X?

That’s what the headline reads in this #NewYorker article which forces the reader to consume #NateSilver musings before approaching the headline subject

Alternative #SocialMedia such as BlueSky or #Mastodon has seen a decline in posting volume following an initial anti #Twitter surge

The big question is why many liberals remained or have chosen to return to X given #Musk toxicity. Is it simply the #NetworkEffect?

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/social-media-is-navigating-its-sectarian-phase

Email subscription pop-ups need to not be a thing on webpages.

I'm always mistaking them for paywalls, assuming the page isn't accessible, and moving on.

I *just* discovered that #NateSilver's "Silver Bulletin" *isn't* for paying subscribers only.... just because it kept asking for my email which looked like a "present your login" demand.

🤣 Oh no, #FiveThirtyEight is getting the axe! But fear not, Nate Silver's data crystal ball will soon grace us with riveting Trump approval #ratings. 📉 Because that's exactly what the world needs more of, right? 🤦‍♂️
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-few-words-about-fivethirtyeight #NateSilver #TrumpApproval #DataAnalysis #NewsHumor #HackerNews #ngated

A few words about FiveThirtyEight — https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-few-words-about-fivethirtyeight
#HackerNews #FiveThirtyEight #NateSilver #DataJournalism #Analytics #Media

FiveThirtyEight, the website started by Nate Silver in 2007, and which shot to fame after its model predicted the 2008 U.S. election results in 49 of 50 states, is closing. This is a result of company Disney making cuts across ABC News, which acquired FiveThirtyEight in 2018 (Silver departed to start his own Silver Bulletin Substack in 2023). Here's more from NiemanLabs about what this all means.

https://flip.it/kj9UnO

#News #Media #Elections #Polling #NateSilver #FiveThirtyEight #Journalism #DataJournalism

@DemocracyMattersALot Eat dirt #NateSilver

You know who's not fooling anyone? Nate Silver.

Nate Silver Blasts Dems Supporting Hunter Pardon: ‘You’re Not Fooling Anyone’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-blasts-democrats-supporting-hunter-biden-pardon-youre-not-fooling-anyone/

#NateSilver

to their credit, the modelers wrote copious articles explaining this and try to warn people but it’s TL;DR so someone just asks #natesilver what his guy says and his guy gives disclaimers but those get ignored too..

BREAKING NEWS: #NateSilver panics his poll numbers look bad; calls Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to provide him 11,580 votes. #FiveThirtyEight #NationalPolls

Nate Silver's gut doesn't contain a uterus. He is catastrophically ignorant about how half the electorate feel about the prospect of having Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas decide what must emerge from their vaginas.

Imagine the arrogance of writing about feelings in your abdomen at a time like this. Breathtaking arrogance. #NateSilver

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20241026&instance_id=137902&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=70901772&segment_id=181465&user_id=e37619d81706c20f3a1394495a2de52c

If the election is a tossup, and the model can't offer any insight other than to forecast the race with a 50-50 chance to break in either direction, then how do I get people to pay attention to me?

Nate Silver has published a piece in The New York Times that clearly explains why people should continue to give me lots of attention and money despite being unable to provide them with any meaningful prediction.

#election2024 #poll #natesilver

https://defector.com/no-matter-what-happens-in-this-election-nobody-is-allowed-to-get-mad-at-me

Okay...
I've spent some time doing my own analysis on this, here are a few things.

1. Yes, there are a lot of bad low quality #right leaning #polls showing up that are making it look like there's been a huge (as in, 7 point according to RCP) swing. This is all nonsense. However, it's moving reliable poll aggregators (#NateSilver, #538, #SilverBulliten, #FiveThirtyEight) about half a point more than it would otherwise.
2. #Polymarket numbers have everything to do with wishful thinking from #techbros, and I would 100% make money off it if I could be bothered to go through their asinine process of betting on their platform. (It involves #crypto)
3. Regardless of all that the polls, even high quality ones, have been more favorable to #Trump than to #Harris. Particularly in #SwingStates. (E.g. #Pennsylvania, #Michigan, #Wisconsin, #NorthCarolina, #Nevada, #Arizona)
4. This has been shown more from Trump gaining than in Harris losing any support. This means that some of the #undecided #voters are finally starting to say they'll support Trump.
5. Given that polls are typically off by 4.3%, anything, that puts the range of national polls at from 50.5:44.2 in favor of Harris to 45.9:48.6 in favor of Trump. The .5 to 1 point shift is not a game changer.
6. The one thing that is really significantly altered by the right-leaning polls is Pennsylvania, which goes from .1 in favor of Harris to .9 in favor of Harris.
7. Polls can shift dramatically. It would be totally normal for the polls to shift five points in one direction or the other in the coming weeks.

Summary:

Polls have gone from an #ElectoralCollege dead heat to an #ElectoralCollege dead heat.

Polls are mostly tracking PA, meaning winning PA wins the race, which is the state most likely to be underreporting Harris support.

There is a significant chance that the only purpose of the polls was to make a case for challenging an #election #Republicans think they're going to lose.

Harris is substantially more likely to destroy Trump than vice versa.

I would say Harris remains the slight favorite, but every single actions - and every #vote - is massively important to winning in #November.

#Election2024 #2024Election #Harris2024 #HarrisWalz #HarrisWalz2024

@GreenFire

#natesilver has become just another clout chasing asshole for the 'relevancy' of licking #plutocrat boots to get amplified on plutocrat media

only #poll that counts is on nov 5 #electionday #election2024

#vote!

also these forecasters are a bunch of fucking sleazy trolls:

"#Democrats accused #NateSilver of being in the pocket of #PeterThiel, the billionaire #Republican donor who has invested in the prediction marketplace #Polymarket, which brought in Silver as an investor... has little to do with his role advising a betting platform and more to do with the fact that he can move betting markets with a tweet"

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-will-win-election-trump-harris-model-wars-nate-silver.html

BREAKING NEWS: #NateSilver admits “I don’t care about any of this shit”; the model is just me guessing numbers between rounds of video games and porn.

😂 🤣 😂 🤣 😂 😅

Can we flush #NateSilver down the toilet yet?

#EricAdams #ACAB

The Guardian trying to make Nate Silver out to be balanced and fair when really he's in the pocket of Peter Thiel (no mention of that in the article as far as I can see)

Also, is it me or is this protected White Boy gloating over the prospect of Minorities having to flee the country?

Creeper....

#NateSilver #USPOL