#globalcarbonbudget — Public Fediverse posts

Emissions from land use change represent about 10% of global CO₂ emissions.

"Brazil, Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo make up more than half of global emissions.
China used to be a source of CO₂ from land use change, now a sink, thanks to large reforestation programmes"

wrote Pierre Friedlingstein lead of the study: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-659/

#GlobalCarbonBudget #CO2 #carbon #deforestation #beef #meat #palmOil #emissions #forests #agriculture #Brazil #Congo #Indonesia #climateChange

Global fossil fuel emissions are set to hit a new high in 2025 and curbing warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels would now be essentially “impossible,” according to new research. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2025/11/13/climate-change/global-fossil-fuel-emisisons/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #environment #climatechange #emissions #climatechange #parisagreement #globalcarbonbudget #earthsystemsciencedata #elnino

@christianschwaegerl Thanks, but surely we need to consider the whole energy system, not just electricity. What does the S-curve look like for that? Are renewables displacing oil and gas use in transport, heating and industry, or is fossil fuel consumption failing to decline?

Wish I knew when #GlobalCarbonBudget 2025 will be published.

Insights from the pros https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1PLYYAB8u4

@Peters_Glen and his colleagues are presenting their well-known charts, but with various little surprises in background information I hadn't heard of yet, despite following their feed on Twix and Bluesky. Well worth my time and hopefully yours too.

Glen speaks about the latest #GlobalCarbonBudget report, especially about the carbon sinks.
Robby Andrews then talks about sector emissions globally, USA, EU, and Norway.

Then comes sector emissions in China,
followed by UNEP Gap report.

I skipped the Gap report, so can't say good or boring. But the other 3 are interesting with all the facts on trends and background on things like economic evolution versus legislation in the regions.

Eg, China's growth in energy production year on year is twice the Norwegian annual demand. Renewables are growing fast but are still miles away from growing more than the energy growth.
Enjoy!

Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth

#CarbonDioxide (#CO2) #emissions from #FossilFuels and #cement will rise around 0.8% in 2024, reaching a record

> 37.4bn tonnes

of CO2 (GtCO2), according to the 2024 #GlobalCarbonBudget report by the Global Carbon Project.
This is 0.4GtCO2 higher than the previous record, set in 2023.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-will-reach-new-high-in-2024-despite-slower-growth/

#ClimateCatastrophe

CO2-Emissionen 2024 auf Rekordhoch

Die weltweiten #CO2-Emissionen durch #fossileEnergiet'räger wie #Kohle, #Erdöl und #Erdgas steigen im Jahr 2024 auf ein #Rekordhoch.
Sie erreichen heuer voraussichtlich

> 37,4 Milliarden Tonnen,

wie ein Forschungsteam im Bericht zum globalen Kohlenstoffbudget (#GlobalCarbonBudget) schreibt – ein Anstieg von 0,8 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Fachleute sehen aber auch positive Entwicklungen. [Aha...]

https://science.orf.at/stories/3227537/

#Klimakatastrophe
#COP29

In June, SOCATv2024 was released. 🌊 This surface ocean #CO2 database is crucial for quantifying #ocean #carbon uptake, providing vital information for climate policy.

⚠️ SOCAT reveals that ocean CO2 monitoring is down to levels from a decade ago. 📉 This reduces the accuracy of SOCAT-based estimates of ocean CO₂ uptake in the #GlobalCarbonBudget.
⚠️ SOCAT is at risk due to chronic funding shortfalls, now relying on a single regional hub.

👉 https://socat.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024_Poster_SOCATv2024.pdf
👉 https://socat.info

I am excited that this year #GlobalCarbonBudget for the first time included our prediction of next year atmospheric CO2.

Such predictions are based on initialized by observations Earth System Models with interactive carbon cycle. They account for changes in carbon sinks in response to climate variability, allowing to predict whether atmospheric CO2 changes faster or slower then expected from changes in emissions alone.

A news piece (German only for now).
https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/de/about-cliccs/news/2023-news/2023-12-05-global-carbon-ilyina.html

Fossile CO2-Emissionen erreichen neues Rekordhoch.
CLICCS : Universität Hamburg
#GlobalCarbonBudget
#klimawandel
https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/de/about-cliccs/news/2023-news/2023-12-05-global-carbon-ilyina.html

🌍 Yesterday the #GlobalCarbonBudget released its 2023 edition (complete data to 2022 and projections for 2023) with contributions of #MPIM_scientists. It estimates #CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use change, atmospheric CO2 increase, and CO2 uptake by land and sea. 📊

🔍 Read more: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5301/2023/
Or find the key messages here: https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-at-record-high-in-2023/

"Global #carbon #emissions from #FossilFuels have risen again in 2023 – reaching record levels, according to new research from the Global Carbon Project science team.

The annual Global #Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide ( #CO2) emissions of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, up 1.1% from 2022.

Fossil CO2 emissions are falling in some regions, including #Europe and the #USA, but rising overall – and the scientists say global action to cut fossil fuels is not happening fast enough to prevent dangerous #ClimateChange.

#Emissions from land-use change (such as #deforestation) are projected to decrease slightly but are still too high to be offset by current levels of #reforestation and #afforestation (new forests).

The report projects that total global #CO2 #emissions (fossil + land use change) will be 40.9 billion tonnes in 2023.

This is about the same as 2022 levels, and part of a 10-year “plateau” – far from the steep reduction in emissions that is urgently needed to meet global #climate targets."

https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-at-record-high-in-2023/

#Klima #Klimakrise #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Cop28
#GlobalCarbonBudget

This year's Global Carbon Budget is released today.

Find out where did the carbon go in 2022 and what are the projections until the end of 2023.

In a nutshell:
- Fossil CO2 emissions up by 1.1%, record high in 2023.
- Land use change emissions somewhat smaller then last year.
- Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks are maintained, despite negative impact of climate change on their strength.
- CO2 concentrations continue to increase.

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5301/2023/

#GlobalCarbonBudget
#climatechange

Das Global Carbon Project (GCP) stellt seine alljährliche Bilanz der Kohlendioxid-Emissionen und der atmosphärischen CO2-Werte vor.

Neues Rekordhoch bei den CO2-Emissionen - Bilanz für 2023 zeigt steigende Emissionen und schwindende natürliche Puffer.

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/neues-rekordhoch-bei-den-co2-emissionen/

#kohlenstoff
#GlobalCarbonBudget
#GCB

We just finished the #GlobalCarbonBudget workshop. Three intensive days (online for me) of learning new research insights on #CarbonSinks, land and ocean carbon cycle, #CDR, methodologies to track #carbon in the #EarthSystem, atmospheric inversions, carbon cycle predictions.

This, initially a purely academic project, is building profile and reaching out to wider audiences.
Thanks to organizers @pfriedling Pep Canadell and everyone involved!
@abastos @jhauck @chrisd_jones https://globalcarbonbudget.org

Gleichzeitig häufen sich die #Klimaschulden in Form von #Emissionen immer weiter an:

Der aktuelle Bericht zur globalen #CO2-Bilanz sieht keine Wende hin zur Klimaneutralität.

https://riffreporter.de/de/umwelt/klimawandel-umwelt-co2-emissionen-treibhausgase-carbon-budget-energie

@riffreporter
@elena_matera #GlobalCarbonBudget

I was frustrated with record-breaking global CO2 emissions, so I created a bunch of charts and wrote about it. Discovered the fascinating simplicity of the Kaya identity and the only real solution it points to: shrinking our economies! Hope I didn't mess up the data too much 🤞😅

https://blog.datawrapper.de/global-carbon-emissions-what-to-do/

#Datavis #ClimateChange #GlobalCarbonBudget

I'm wondering now, whether what I had learned in #1 about nutrients accumulating on winter sea ice and providing feed to ocean creatures in spring melt in Antarctica isn't also true in the Arctic.

While the verdict on Antarctica's sea ice growth or shrinkage is still uncertain, the Arctic sea is in adaption mode for sure, ie., it is shrinking in age, in area covered and in thickness. Surely, the nutrient accumulation process on sea ice that impacts the ocean carbon sink, is also active in the Arctic. And ice IS shrinking there.
The Global Carbon Project reports a 4% lower growth of the ocean sink for 2021. (And 17% lower growth of the land carbon sink.) (Note, the sinks still grew in tandem with anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but they grew less. As if they were approaching some saturation threshold.)

And also worrying to the Carbon experts is that they find a now seemingly persistent trend of a negative imbalance in the carbon budget.
The imbalance is the calculation result of CO2 sources minus carbon sinks. If the imbalance is negative it can be due to CO2 sources being higher than estimated, or due to sinks being smaller than estimated - or both.

So, I'm all the more curious whether the nutrients-seaice process in the Arctic does exist and whether less ice growth in winter already negatively affects the ocean carbon sink.
... indeed, the cryosphere report states that on page 34. Well, there you go. Mystery solved.

On the side: sea ice-free Arctic will occur at least once before 2050. And the Arctic is now officially warming 4 times faster than global average, not 2-3 times faster as the previous official figure.
Depending on our leaders' emission policies, or rather, depending on our determination as climate activists to pressure our leaders to sufficient action wrt degrowth,
the Arctic summer can be ice free from June to November by 2040 or 2050.

Which lets me wonder how that'll impact Northern Hemisphere weather. Which path will a jetstream choose that is no longer "fuelled" by an ice-cold Arctic sea? Where will the highs and lows in air pressure form which in recent years caused stationary heatwaves or the very slow-moving deep Bernd in July 2021 with torrential rain over Belgium, Switzerland and Germany.
I can probably scholar-google that answer.
But getting my curiousity triggered is a gift on its own.

Maybe, by 2030, the lack of summer sea ice will create jetstream patterns every year like the one in 2019 when the french farmer burnt to death during harvest on his wheat field.

#Antarctica #Arctic #OceanCarbonSink #CarbonSink #SeaIce #GlobalCarbonBudget #GlobalCarbonProject

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/declining-antarctic-sea-ice-could-disrupt-a-major-carbon-sink/
#SeaIce #Antarctica #CarbonSink #OceanSink #GlobalCarbonProject #GlobalCarbonBudget

That's an old-ish article about Antarctic sea ice from 2020. It's mainly about a process that lets AA sea ice grow when Northern Hemisphere warms, like during deglaciation.
The bigger area of winter sea ice then accumulates more nutrients on its surface and when it melts in spring, the nutrients feed ocean creatures. The more ocean creatures, the bigger the ocean carbon sink. This process is thought to be responsible for a CO2 plateau at 240ppm lasting 2000 years during the last warming of the Northern Hemisphere, the last deglaciation.
And nowadays, lower sea ice expansion in AA winters might shrink the ocean carbon sink in spring due to lower nutrient availability.

The article mentions a few other then-recent papers on the ocean sink.

Just thought it might interest some if you because of the 2 updates this week, one update of the Global Carbon Project, and the other an update of the 2019 IPCC report on cryosphere and ocean.

This looks like great inspiration + #Data for #30DayMapChallenge from the #GlobalCarbonBudget report... https://fediscience.org/@jhauck/109325411493784530

Der Bericht zum #GlobalCarbonBudget liefert alarmierende Zahlen: Die globalen #CO2-Emissionen erreichen einen neuen Höchststand. Die Autorïnnen fordern drastische Veränderungen, um die #Erderwärmung auf unter 2 Grad zu begrenzen. (€)
@elena_matera @riffklima
https://www.riffreporter.de/de/umwelt/klimawandel-umwelt-co2-emissionen-treibhausgase-carbon-budget-energie

So today the #GlobalCarbonBudget report is being launch for 2022 @jhauck is doing some nice summary posts.. #FF
https://fediscience.org/@jhauck/109324375992388882