#cashrate — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #cashrate, aggregated by home.social.
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#RichardDenniss from the #AustralianInstitute talks about the RBA and its role in our economy in plain language that everyone will understand. It cannot be said often enough that the RBA’s obsession with controling inflation is a two-edged sword which, if you listen to Denniss, hurts the most vulnerable in our society and about a third of Australians who rent (because landlords put up their rents when mortgage rates go up) and another third of Australians because their own morgage rates also go up. On top of that, fighting inflation also causes higher unemployment. Denniss does a good job explaining all of that here, have a listen:
Another conversation could be had about whether the RBA should be independent of govt (Finance and Treasury) given that the govt is the only authority for issueing and removing currency.
#Inflation #RBA #NAIRU #Unemployment #ProfitLedInflation #Banking #CashRate #TaxReform #TaxSuperProfits #TaxTheRich #MMT #NeoLiberalEconomics
More on Employment from the RBA:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/pdf/assessing-full-employment-in-australia.pdf -
🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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Rather not! I don’t know! What do you think? 🤷♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑 My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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It’s a RAISE! And maybe for the better! Inflation readings consistently outside of RBA’s target convinced everybody about the inevitability of the RAISEs. That’s what my forecasts capture. The current cash rate value is decisively outside of the predictive interval and the mean indicates an increase in its value. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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It's definitely a possibility! 🤷♀️ That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. 🤷♂️ And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain 🤷
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This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀 The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value, but they include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease.
My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣
⭐ My system predicted last twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐
This time it predicted a decisive CUT but the RBA kept the cash rate at the current level. That's OK!
After another cut, I'll write more about the mid-to-long-term trajectories for cash rate.
In the meantime, enjoy my gif 💜 💙
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👽 Third time lucky! The forecasts from my predictive system indicate another 3️⃣ CUT. The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value. 🤖 They include a 25bp cut, though. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease. 📉
👾 My system predicted correctly last 12 decisions. Will 13 become my lucky number? 🚀
🌐 These forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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😎 In line with expert opinions and market expectations, the combined forecasts from my models indicate a decisive CUT 📉 of the cash rate in May. The predictive intervals do not include the rate’s current value and include a 25bp cut ✅ All the bond yield curve models’ predictions align with these projections, and those that rely more on exchange rates or cash rate persistence do not.
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Having correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. Regarding the interest rate’s values for the next year’s horizon, one needs to consider the world’s political uncertainty and its impact on inflation and economic activity in Australia. Providing the mid-term cash rate trajectory will not be possible before another two or three rate cuts. 📉
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I have been forecasting RBA's decisions about the cash rate since October 2022⏳ answering the survey by https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate The 3️⃣ major wins were that my forecasting system predicted:
+ 9 months ahead that the cash rate will be up to 4.1% by mid-2023 📈
+ 20 out of 24 RBA's decisions correctly ✅
+ identified the first CUT after over a year of no movements on the cash rate 📉Good time series econometrics is working! Find my forecasts at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my #forecasting system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on #cashrate. But it managed: https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
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The cash rate has not moved since October 2023. So, how come the forecasts may indicate a CUT for the February meeting?❓❓
https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
✨ That's bc bond yield curve modelling includes rates on bonds of different maturities that contain whole lot of information, also about market participant expectations. And it seems, we all expect a CUT. 📉✅
This or the next time 😎
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Cherish the day! ✨💫 My forecasting system indicates a decisive CUT 📉. The predictive intervals from the pooled forecast, including from all bond yield curve models, for the first time in years, do not include the current value of the cash rate. This seems in line with what the newest data releases, including inflation readings, suggest. ✅
You can access these forecasts at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Greg Jericho explains: the #RBA now has no excuse, it must lower the #CashRate at its next meeting.
“Not only are the annual inflation figures showing prices are rising at the pace the RBA aims for – within 2% and 3% – but the December quarter itself had prices growing slower than that associated with 2% annual inflation.”
#aupol
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/jan/29/rba-interest-rates-decision-australia-inflation? -
Expect no changes in the cash rate for now. One should add “unsurprisingly” because all the statistical data releases and RBA’s communication indicate an extension of the wait for the first cut. My forecasts from statistical modelling confirm this. The next board meeting in February will be held after some political changes worldwide, and for now, it is impossible to tell if the monetary policy stance will be affected. So, we keep waiting.
https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats -
WOW! I have been doing the 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 for two years now! And it's been so much fun! 🚀
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We're over it! ⭐ ... and we're going down soon! ✨ My forecasts are centred at HOLD for this month. We have just pasted the times of a high probability of RAISE as it went down from over 70 per cent in July to less than 50 per cent for the upcoming meeting. For the first time, my forecasts indicate a decisive CUT for December, as the predictive interval for that month does not include the current cash rate level. 💫
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You can access these forecasts at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Yeah, nah! It’s interesting! 🤣 🤓 👻
My forecast shows only a 60% probability of the cash rate increase in June but as much as a 75% chance in July. Additionally, the multivariate models for weekly data have the cash rate’s current level out of the forecast intervals, indicating a decisive increase. However, the pooled forecast of weekly and monthly data using multi- and uni-variate models says 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗. 👫 👬 👭
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Yet unlikely! 👻 👾 👽
My forecasts indicate the beginning of a downward trend in the cash rate. However, the uncertainty around this trend remains large enough to suggest a 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 decision. 🛑
For the first time in my forecasting exercise bond yield curve models for monthly data exclude the hold decision from the forecast interval in favour of a cut. 📉 Other groups of models balance this effect out in my pooled forecast, though.
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Oh boi! I forgot to post my forecasts a week ago! 🛑
My short-term forecasts are clearly centred about the current cash rate value. My reading of these results is that the RBA will 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 the cash rate at the current value to push the inflation down more. I expect the first interest rate cuts by mid-2024.
See more at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/2024_01.html
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My forecasts hardly contain the current cash rate value within the forecast interval, with most of the forecast density mass indicating downward movements. 📉 My reading of these results is that the RBA will 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗🛑 the cash rate at the current value to push the inflation down more. I expect the 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗺𝗶𝗱-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰. 🚀
My forecasts are available at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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After last month's forecasts indicating both HOLD and RAISE decisions, this month, they settled quite firmly on 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗. The level of 4.35% is likely to stay unchanged by the second quarter of next year. This seems in line with Michele Bullock's communication, although the domestic sources of inflation talk could indicate otherwise. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
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And here comes the HEX sticker of my cash rate forecasting website, where I provide codes and forecasts from the predictive system!
That's a hydra plot!
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Not too many changes this month in the cash rate forecasts! It's a 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 from me!
The 68% forecasting interval from my predictive system containing over two hundred models of weekly and monthly data spans the cash rate values from 4.09 to 4.25 per cent. Therefore, it includes both the HOLD and RAISE decisions. Despite the latest reading of quarterly inflation, and given RBA's communication, my choice is to indicate HOLD.
https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/