#cashrate — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #cashrate, aggregated by home.social.
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@InsurgoFormica
Well, I think we’re going to have to disagree on that because I think that the Board is captivated by the ‘job market’ figures as unemployment is deemed too high for #NeoLiberal #MonetaryPolicy (paraphrasing from Greg Jericho’s observations of the RBA). And, as I tooted before, the current economic data do not yet reflect any impact of the previous #CashRate rise.But, I guess time will tell (6 months at least by my reckoning) if the RBA made the right or wrong decision this time around.
No worries dude, we have a different opinion that’s all. -
It’s all laid for you all right here…
The #RBA is freeking useless and guess who’s going to pay that bill… -
“14.30 AEST
Of course the #RBA did… against the better judgement of economists who are not died-in-the-wool #NeoLiberals. This rise will do nothing to stop inflation due to Stupid #tRump and his mate #Netanyahu military fling. The underlying inflation does not warrant this (according to Greg Jerocho — one of the more sensible economist driven by facts rather than mad theories). Further more, the lasat #CashRate rise has yet to show its effect on the economic numbers FFS.“RBA raises interest rates for third time in 2026
reported by Luca IttimaniThe Reserve Bank has increased its official interest rate to 4.35%, as prices rise at their fastest pace since 2023.
The RBA’s board today hiked rates for a third consecutive meeting in 2026 after increases in February and March. Rates are now back where they were at the start of 2025, with each of that year’s three rate cuts now unwound.
Today’s hike was widely expected, picked by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But financial markets had not fully priced in an increase, with some thinking the RBA might wait and see what the federal government does with its budget next week.” (Source: The Guardian Live)
#AusPol #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Recession #MonetaryPolicy
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“14.30 AEST
Of course the #RBA did… against the better judgement of economists who are not died-in-the-wool #NeoLiberals. This rise will do nothing to stop inflation due to Stupid #tRump and his mate #Netanyahu military fling. The underlying inflation does not warrant this (according to Greg Jerocho — one of the more sensible economist driven by facts rather than mad theories). Further more, the lasat #CashRate rise has yet to show its effect on the economic numbers FFS.“RBA raises interest rates for third time in 2026
reported by Luca IttimaniThe Reserve Bank has increased its official interest rate to 4.35%, as prices rise at their fastest pace since 2023.
The RBA’s board today hiked rates for a third consecutive meeting in 2026 after increases in February and March. Rates are now back where they were at the start of 2025, with each of that year’s three rate cuts now unwound.
Today’s hike was widely expected, picked by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But financial markets had not fully priced in an increase, with some thinking the RBA might wait and see what the federal government does with its budget next week.” (Source: The Guardian Live)
#AusPol #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Recession #MonetaryPolicy
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“14.30 AEST
Of course the #RBA did… against the better judgement of economists who are not died-in-the-wool #NeoLiberals. This rise will do nothing to stop inflation due to Stupid #tRump and his mate #Netanyahu military fling. The underlying inflation does not warrant this (according to Greg Jerocho — one of the more sensible economist driven by facts rather than mad theories). Further more, the lasat #CashRate rise has yet to show its effect on the economic numbers FFS.“RBA raises interest rates for third time in 2026
reported by Luca IttimaniThe Reserve Bank has increased its official interest rate to 4.35%, as prices rise at their fastest pace since 2023.
The RBA’s board today hiked rates for a third consecutive meeting in 2026 after increases in February and March. Rates are now back where they were at the start of 2025, with each of that year’s three rate cuts now unwound.
Today’s hike was widely expected, picked by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But financial markets had not fully priced in an increase, with some thinking the RBA might wait and see what the federal government does with its budget next week.” (Source: The Guardian Live)
#AusPol #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Recession #MonetaryPolicy
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“14.30 AEST
Of course the #RBA did… against the better judgement of economists who are not died-in-the-wool #NeoLiberals. This rise will do nothing to stop inflation due to Stupid #tRump and his mate #Netanyahu military fling. The underlying inflation does not warrant this (according to Greg Jerocho — one of the more sensible economist driven by facts rather than mad theories). Further more, the lasat #CashRate rise has yet to show its effect on the economic numbers FFS.“RBA raises interest rates for third time in 2026
reported by Luca IttimaniThe Reserve Bank has increased its official interest rate to 4.35%, as prices rise at their fastest pace since 2023.
The RBA’s board today hiked rates for a third consecutive meeting in 2026 after increases in February and March. Rates are now back where they were at the start of 2025, with each of that year’s three rate cuts now unwound.
Today’s hike was widely expected, picked by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But financial markets had not fully priced in an increase, with some thinking the RBA might wait and see what the federal government does with its budget next week.” (Source: The Guardian Live)
#AusPol #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Recession #MonetaryPolicy
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“14.30 AEST
Of course the #RBA did… against the better judgement of economists who are not died-in-the-wool #NeoLiberals. This rise will do nothing to stop inflation due to Stupid #tRump and his mate #Netanyahu military fling. The underlying inflation does not warrant this (according to Greg Jerocho — one of the more sensible economist driven by facts rather than mad theories). Further more, the lasat #CashRate rise has yet to show its effect on the economic numbers FFS.“RBA raises interest rates for third time in 2026
reported by Luca IttimaniThe Reserve Bank has increased its official interest rate to 4.35%, as prices rise at their fastest pace since 2023.
The RBA’s board today hiked rates for a third consecutive meeting in 2026 after increases in February and March. Rates are now back where they were at the start of 2025, with each of that year’s three rate cuts now unwound.
Today’s hike was widely expected, picked by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But financial markets had not fully priced in an increase, with some thinking the RBA might wait and see what the federal government does with its budget next week.” (Source: The Guardian Live)
#AusPol #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Recession #MonetaryPolicy
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https://www.europesays.com/uk/938330/ RBA interest rate decision: Economists tip hike to 4.35 per cent #Asia #Australia #AustraliaAndNewZealand #AustraliansBrace #Business #CashRate #CashRateSits #ConsumerPriceIndex #CrucialInterestRate #Economy #HikeWarning #InterestRate #InterestRateDecision #Iran #JimChalmers #Michele #Oceania #PaulMurray #ReserveBankOfAustralia #RoyMorgan #SouthernAsia #UK #UnitedKingdom
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🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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This statment by the CEO of the Business Council Association is exactly what our #AlboPM is parroting publically:
“Mr Black gave evidence to the Senate inquiry on its second day of public hearings, arguing a levy would be “counterproductive” at a time when Australia needs more investment. […] Energy investors are like butterflies – if they are scared, they fly away,” he said, citing the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).”
Which, of course, is absolute BS. All that investors need for incentive is a sound #BusinessCase that promisses #Profit. ANY PROFIT above the #CashRate will do. It doesn’t have to be the promisse of #Pilfering or #Sacking an economy FFS. ANy fool understands this. WHY doesn’t the #PM get it? If #AlboPM is not fool (and I have no reason to think he is), then HE IS COMPLICIT in the rape and sacking of the country by #Multinationals and the #ExtractiveIndustries - pure and simple (Because based on numbers, it’s not about jobs). And the #NationalSecurity ballon won’t fly here either.
I’m getting fed up hearing this neoliberal lie over and over and over again…
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CW: Coarse language
#MayTheFourth is just around the corner and with it the prospect of yet another ill conceived #CashRate rise… That is what the #RBA will deliver, if you’re to believe the majority of economic punters — not that I have much faith in economists’ speculations given they build their career on theorising about the past.
Still, if this does occur, I’d imagine it would be the equivalent of stomping on the gas pedal on the wrong side of the road to avoid an accident. Meanwhile, #JimChalmersMP driving behind it all will be squirming in his seat stomping on the brake pedal to avoid the mess created by the #RBA.
Much is going to be written about the RBA May and July meetings because, well…#Trump the well know insider traders and general fucktard.
#AusPol #Economics #StagflationFears #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy
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CW: Coarse language
#MayTheFourth is just around the corner and with it the prospect of yet another ill conceived #CashRate rise… That is what the #RBA will deliver, if you’re to believe the majority of economic punters — not that I have much faith in economists’ speculations given they build their career on theorising about the past.
Still, if this does occur, I’d imagine it would be the equivalent of stomping on the gas pedal on the wrong side of the road to avoid an accident. Meanwhile, #JimChalmersMP driving behind it all will be squirming in his seat stomping on the brake pedal to avoid the mess created by the #RBA.
Much is going to be written about the RBA May and July meetings because, well…#Trump the well know insider traders and general fucktard.
#AusPol #Economics #StagflationFears #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy
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CW: Coarse language
#MayTheFourth is just around the corner and with it the prospect of yet another ill conceived #CashRate rise… That is what the #RBA will deliver, if you’re to believe the majority of economic punters — not that I have much faith in economists’ speculations given they build their career on theorising about the past.
Still, if this does occur, I’d imagine it would be the equivalent of stomping on the gas pedal on the wrong side of the road to avoid an accident. Meanwhile, #JimChalmersMP driving behind it all will be squirming in his seat stomping on the brake pedal to avoid the mess created by the #RBA.
Much is going to be written about the RBA May and July meetings because, well…#Trump the well know insider traders and general fucktard.
#AusPol #Economics #StagflationFears #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy
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CW: Coarse language
#MayTheFourth is just around the corner and with it the prospect of yet another ill conceived #CashRate rise… That is what the #RBA will deliver, if you’re to believe the majority of economic punters — not that I have much faith in economists’ speculations given they build their career on theorising about the past.
Still, if this does occur, I’d imagine it would be the equivalent of stomping on the gas pedal on the wrong side of the road to avoid an accident. Meanwhile, #JimChalmersMP driving behind it all will be squirming in his seat stomping on the brake pedal to avoid the mess created by the #RBA.
Much is going to be written about the RBA May and July meetings because, well…#Trump the well know insider traders and general fucktard.
#AusPol #Economics #StagflationFears #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy
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Watching The Business on the ABC and…
I have to ask a few questions:WIth so many neo-liberal economists taking up #Stagflation, #Inflation and #CashRate increases whether or not the war on #Iran comes to an end soon - are we looking at a self-fulfilling prophesy? Helped along by businesses raising prices ahead of the curve in a attempt to head off increasing #FossilFuel costs?
No one is talking about how well or otherwise the Australian economy is poised to cushion the predicted global economic shocks (Ie. The penetration of Renewables, rail transport, EVs, HousePV/btty systems, ICE Gas conversions, Fuel stocks and supply lines in Asia, price controls, etc.). Maybe because that’s harder to do than hitting the panic button.
Stock markets and shareholders ought not to be the be-all and end-all of economic life!
There are no hard, written in stone, rules about how to run an economy but for neo-classical (read neoliberal) stranglehold on economic thinking and political will or the lack thereof.
Yee gods help us all… -
A thoughtful piece from #AmyRemeikis in The Point.
I would only argue that #fuel prices were not the main reason for the #RBA disastrous decision to raise the #CashRate to 4.1%. Bullock herself started her press conference with “the labour market’ is too tight. IOW, the RBA is considering low empoyment figures (seemingly arbritrarily so, the same as their arbitrary acceptable inflation window percentage) to be the cause for the underlying inflation (which is nowhere to be seen in the latest data, see Greg Jericho’s many articles on the matter).
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Yes, Fuel prices at the pump have soared — partially due to greed — and this is precicely why the latest #RBA #CashRate rise was a complete ballsup and a failure to apply basic experiencial #economics (as opposed to debunked theoretical #neoliberal claptrap). Consumers will, as a result of fuel costs, spend less on non-essential goods and services, therefore the #inflation beast will retreat somewhat.
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Reserve Bank of Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.10% in split 5-4 decision, marking second consecutive monthly increase amid persistent inflation concerns and Middle East conflict uncertainties, causing Australian bond yields and currency to decline on heightened policy uncertainty.
#YonhapInfomax #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #InterestRateHike #InflationPressures #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=110374 -
Reserve Bank of Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.10% in split 5-4 decision, marking second consecutive monthly increase amid persistent inflation concerns and Middle East conflict uncertainties, causing Australian bond yields and currency to decline on heightened policy uncertainty.
#YonhapInfomax #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #InterestRateHike #InflationPressures #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=110374 -
Reserve Bank of Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.10% in split 5-4 decision, marking second consecutive monthly increase amid persistent inflation concerns and Middle East conflict uncertainties, causing Australian bond yields and currency to decline on heightened policy uncertainty.
#YonhapInfomax #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #InterestRateHike #InflationPressures #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=110374 -
Reserve Bank of Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.10% in split 5-4 decision, marking second consecutive monthly increase amid persistent inflation concerns and Middle East conflict uncertainties, causing Australian bond yields and currency to decline on heightened policy uncertainty.
#YonhapInfomax #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #InterestRateHike #InflationPressures #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=110374 -
[edited for typos]
#GregJericho lays into the #RBA ‘s latest gaffe.[The RBA said] “in addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen. As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.” This is a total failure of basic economics, and suggestive of a panicked RBA board.
The impact on oil prices is due to the attacks on Iran and the blockage of cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing the RBA does will affect that.”
Read that again: “NOTHING the RBA does” will mitigate fuel cost increases due to the crisis in the MIddel East.
It couldn’t be clearer. An Economics 101 student would not even need the clarification. What is the RBA doing FFS? It seems clueless at times.
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Aussie households to pay extra $272 in monthly mortgage repayments if major banks’ interest rate forecast is right
Australian households will have to pay an extra $272 per month compared to the start of the year…
#NewsBeep #News #Economy #AU #Australia #Business #cashrate #inflation #interestrates #NAB #RBA #ReserveBankofAustralia #unemployment
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/536478/ -
Aussie households to pay extra $272 in monthly mortgage repayments if major banks’ interest rate forecast is right
Australian households will have to pay an extra $272 per month compared to the start of the year…
#NewsBeep #News #Economy #AU #Australia #Business #cashrate #inflation #interestrates #NAB #RBA #ReserveBankofAustralia #unemployment
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/536478/ -
Rather not! I don’t know! What do you think? 🤷♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑 My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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I never get tired of tooting #GregJericho ‘s articles, because what he says, most of the time, is not just informative, it’s a booster shot against the #FakeNews and #EconomicMisInformation the #msm spews out — unfortunately with that much misinformation being the main narrative of all but a few news outlets and the #FifthEstate, a lot of it is bound to be believed as truth: like the furphy about increasing wages driving up inflation — everyone should know by now the inflationary dragon is #GreedFlation.
“There hasn’t been a wage breakout since I was in primary school but do not worry – the RBA is still on the watch, ever on alert to raise interest rates in an effort to increase unemployment and lower wage growth.”
Read more:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2026/feb/18/real-wages-fall-australia-workers-economyBut the RBA is not about to let a debuked economic theory go to waste. So Greg is warning us of another rate rise likely to come if the RBA stays true to form — and why shouldn’t it?
Read more:
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260220-dont-panic-rba-low-unemployment-is-a-good-thing#RBA #NeoClassicalEconomics #NeoLiberalEconomics #AusPol #CashRate #Inflation #WageGrowth
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It’s a RAISE! And maybe for the better! Inflation readings consistently outside of RBA’s target convinced everybody about the inevitability of the RAISEs. That’s what my forecasts capture. The current cash rate value is decisively outside of the predictive interval and the mean indicates an increase in its value. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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RBA ‘wild card’ that could derail unanimous interest rate hike call from Big Four banks
The RBA is widely expected to hike the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points on Tuesday, with all…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Economy #BelindaAllen #BigFour #Business #cashrate #commonwealthbank #InterestRates #NAB #ratehike #Ratehikes #ReserveBankofAustralia #westpac
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/442480/ -
RBA ‘wild card’ that could derail unanimous interest rate hike call from Big Four banks
The RBA is widely expected to hike the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points on Tuesday, with all…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Economy #BelindaAllen #BigFour #Business #cashrate #commonwealthbank #InterestRates #NAB #ratehike #Ratehikes #ReserveBankofAustralia #westpac
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/442480/ -
NAB joins Commonwealth Bank in ditching further RBA interest rate cuts: ‘No longer expect’
NAB and Commonwealth Bank economists are both no longer forecasting further interest rate cuts from the RBA. (Source:…
#NewsBeep #News #Business #AU #Australia #cashrate #CommonwealthBank #interestrate #unemploymentrate
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/282197/ -
It's definitely a possibility! 🤷♀️ That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. 🤷♂️ And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain 🤷
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This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀 The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value, but they include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease.
My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣
⭐ My system predicted last twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐
This time it predicted a decisive CUT but the RBA kept the cash rate at the current level. That's OK!
After another cut, I'll write more about the mid-to-long-term trajectories for cash rate.
In the meantime, enjoy my gif 💜 💙
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👽 Third time lucky! The forecasts from my predictive system indicate another 3️⃣ CUT. The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value. 🤖 They include a 25bp cut, though. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease. 📉
👾 My system predicted correctly last 12 decisions. Will 13 become my lucky number? 🚀
🌐 These forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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😎 In line with expert opinions and market expectations, the combined forecasts from my models indicate a decisive CUT 📉 of the cash rate in May. The predictive intervals do not include the rate’s current value and include a 25bp cut ✅ All the bond yield curve models’ predictions align with these projections, and those that rely more on exchange rates or cash rate persistence do not.
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Having correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. Regarding the interest rate’s values for the next year’s horizon, one needs to consider the world’s political uncertainty and its impact on inflation and economic activity in Australia. Providing the mid-term cash rate trajectory will not be possible before another two or three rate cuts. 📉
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I have been forecasting RBA's decisions about the cash rate since October 2022⏳ answering the survey by https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate The 3️⃣ major wins were that my forecasting system predicted:
+ 9 months ahead that the cash rate will be up to 4.1% by mid-2023 📈
+ 20 out of 24 RBA's decisions correctly ✅
+ identified the first CUT after over a year of no movements on the cash rate 📉Good time series econometrics is working! Find my forecasts at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my #forecasting system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on #cashrate. But it managed: https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
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The cash rate has not moved since October 2023. So, how come the forecasts may indicate a CUT for the February meeting?❓❓
https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
✨ That's bc bond yield curve modelling includes rates on bonds of different maturities that contain whole lot of information, also about market participant expectations. And it seems, we all expect a CUT. 📉✅
This or the next time 😎
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Cherish the day! ✨💫 My forecasting system indicates a decisive CUT 📉. The predictive intervals from the pooled forecast, including from all bond yield curve models, for the first time in years, do not include the current value of the cash rate. This seems in line with what the newest data releases, including inflation readings, suggest. ✅
You can access these forecasts at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Greg Jericho explains: the #RBA now has no excuse, it must lower the #CashRate at its next meeting.
“Not only are the annual inflation figures showing prices are rising at the pace the RBA aims for – within 2% and 3% – but the December quarter itself had prices growing slower than that associated with 2% annual inflation.”
#aupol
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/jan/29/rba-interest-rates-decision-australia-inflation? -
Expect no changes in the cash rate for now. One should add “unsurprisingly” because all the statistical data releases and RBA’s communication indicate an extension of the wait for the first cut. My forecasts from statistical modelling confirm this. The next board meeting in February will be held after some political changes worldwide, and for now, it is impossible to tell if the monetary policy stance will be affected. So, we keep waiting.
https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats -
WOW! I have been doing the 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 for two years now! And it's been so much fun! 🚀
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We're over it! ⭐ ... and we're going down soon! ✨ My forecasts are centred at HOLD for this month. We have just pasted the times of a high probability of RAISE as it went down from over 70 per cent in July to less than 50 per cent for the upcoming meeting. For the first time, my forecasts indicate a decisive CUT for December, as the predictive interval for that month does not include the current cash rate level. 💫
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You can access these forecasts at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Yeah, nah! It’s interesting! 🤣 🤓 👻
My forecast shows only a 60% probability of the cash rate increase in June but as much as a 75% chance in July. Additionally, the multivariate models for weekly data have the cash rate’s current level out of the forecast intervals, indicating a decisive increase. However, the pooled forecast of weekly and monthly data using multi- and uni-variate models says 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗. 👫 👬 👭
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Yet unlikely! 👻 👾 👽
My forecasts indicate the beginning of a downward trend in the cash rate. However, the uncertainty around this trend remains large enough to suggest a 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 decision. 🛑
For the first time in my forecasting exercise bond yield curve models for monthly data exclude the hold decision from the forecast interval in favour of a cut. 📉 Other groups of models balance this effect out in my pooled forecast, though.
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And here comes the HEX sticker of my cash rate forecasting website, where I provide codes and forecasts from the predictive system!
That's a hydra plot!