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#publicdebt — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #publicdebt, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Borrowing Dips, But Future Gloom Looms

    UK government borrowing fell in the last financial year, but higher spending and economic issues could increase it again soon. Find out why.

    #UKBorrowing, #PublicDebt, #EconomicNews, #GovernmentSpending, #UKEconomy

    newsletter.tf/uk-government-bo

  2. UK government borrowing for the year ending March 2026 fell by £19.8 billion to £132 billion. This is lower than the previous year but higher than expected for March.

    #UKBorrowing, #PublicDebt, #EconomicNews, #GovernmentSpending, #UKEconomy
    newsletter.tf/uk-government-bo

  3. The immediate impact of investors (including Central Banks) selling off US Treasury Bills (US public Debt), often to fund state expenditure in light of increased energy costs, are of little political importance (they're being bought by other investors), but does confirm a continuing global shift from US public debt as a safe asset.

    Fewer buyers for TBills will eventually raise the US cost of borrowing, which may have long(er) term negative effects for the USA.

    #PublicDebt #USPolitics
    h/t FT

  4. #IMF: #Global #publicdebt climbed to 93.9 percent of GDP in 2025 and is on track to breach 100 percent by 2028—levels never seen in peacetime—marking a turning point for #economicpolicy and #politics

  5. Public debt: A ticking time bomb about to explode?

    Countries have sharply increased the money they owe to the markets, putting their own spending policies at risk in an increasingly unstable world.

    mediafaro.org/article/20260208

    #PublicDebt #Politics #Economics #Economy #Deficit #GDP #IMF #OECD #France #Germany #UK #Spain

  6. Well, at least there are still true libertarians in the U.S. Not that I condone their economic policies but at least they're intellectually honest.

    "Recent increases in immigration have rekindled concerns about their effects on government budgets. This paper updates a model of these effects first developed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) to shed light on how immigrants, both legal and illegal, and their children affect government budgets. This analysis is the first to estimate the cumulative fiscal effect of immigrants on federal, state, and local budgets over 30 years.

    The government first began gathering detailed information on benefits use by citizenship status in 1994. The data show:

    - For each year from 1994 to 2023, the US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government.

    - Over that period, immigrants created a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion in real 2024 US dollars, including $3.9 trillion in savings on interest on the debt.

    - Without immigrants, US government public debt at all levels would be at least 205 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—nearly twice its 2023 level.

    - These results, which do not account for any of immigration’s indirect, tax-revenue-boosting effects on economic growth, represent the lower bound of the positive fiscal effects. Even by this conservative analysis, immigrants may have already prevented a fiscal crisis."

    cato.org/white-paper/immigrant

    #USA #Immigration #PublicDebt

  7. "According to the study, tax rates that are increased or newly introduced during rearmament phases generally remain in place at least in part even after these phases end. Fully repealing newly introduced taxes is the exception rather than the rule.

    As a result, average tax revenues more than a decade after the start of a rearmament phase were still 20 to 30 percent above their original level, while top marginal tax rates were around 15 percentage points higher.

    “The current rearmament in NATO countries is among the largest in Western industrialized countries over the past 150 years, comparable to the rearmament phases prior to the World Wars or after the Korean War. A look at history suggests that this will also entail long-term financial burdens for taxpayers,” says Christoph Trebesch, Director of the Research Center International Finance at the Kiel Institute and co-author of the study “Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War.”

    In wartime, governments have predominantly financed sharply rising military spending through higher public debt. In addition, new taxes are introduced or existing ones increased, for example to finance rising interest payments.

    A similar pattern can also be observed in rearmament phases during peacetime, such as periods of geopolitical threat without direct warfare on a country’s own territory, conditions currently faced by many NATO members. While debt issuance and tax increases are smaller in such threat scenarios than in wars, they have nevertheless often led to noticeable changes in tax systems, including higher income or consumption tax rates."

    kielinstitut.de/publications/n

    #War #PublicDebt #Taxes #Rearmament #NATO #Warfare #Austerity

  8. Part 1 of this 2-part series looked at the costs of the Russia-Ukraine war and and US pressure to end it, even at a disadvantage for Ukraine. Whatever the outcome, Europe now faces tough choices that go beyond the fate of the two countries. Part 2 explores this.

    Read on the free HT news app: hindustantimes.com/editors-pic

    #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #PublicDebt #NATO #OldAgeDependency #Demographics #Growth #Economy #GDP

  9. "A libertarian would never espouse that logic, which is in my view largely responsible for Argentina’s never-ending crisis.

    In other words, if you truly believe that prices for medicines, bread, petrol and iPhones must be left to the ruthless but ultimately wiser forces of demand and supply, you must surely believe the same thing about the price or exchange rate of the peso. You would surely believe that pricier imports would help the peso to recover automatically and strengthen your prized disinflation process in an organic, rational manner.

    As a libertarian, Milei should also know that propping up the peso is a fool’s wager. When your central bank’s dollar stash runs out, you need to do what no self-respecting libertarian does: enter into an unwinnable chicken game against merciless financiers who can always amass a war chest larger than any credit card the IMF or US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will provide you with. Bessent knows this better than anyone: as George Soros’s deputy, the pair of them broke the Bank of England playing exactly this type of game.

    Unwilling to assume that Milei is a fool, the only remaining explanation is that he knew damn well what he was doing. Argentina is a highly unequal society combining mass poverty, a sophisticated polity, and an antiquated industrial sector alongside a rich, highly competitive export-oriented agricultural and mineral sector whose dollar proceeds allow first-world living standards to a small segment of society. Its oligarchic segment would love it if the peso were replaced, as it was in Ecuador, with the dollar, so that their domestic assets could be infinitely transferable to New York or Geneva. Otherwise, they demand a strong peso whenever they feel like liquidating a domestic asset and transferring its value abroad. Argentine Presidents have seldom failed to do this."

    unherd.com/2025/10/javier-mile

    #Argentina #Milei #Libertarianism #PoliticalEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #PublicDebt

  10. The US debt has reached levels it was previously not expected to reach till the next decade. This raises questions such as who owns this debt? When will it mature? And how does US compare against other advanced economies? Today's Number Theory explores all this in detail.

    Read on HT app: hindustantimes.com/editors-pic

    #USDebt #Debt #PublicDebt #Economy #FiscalDeficit #DataViz #US

  11. "“The IMF’s maximum credit to Argentina… is projected to reach 1,352% of the country’s quota in 2026. This would be the Fund’s largest exposure in absolute terms in its history.”

    Before we get to the meat of this story, let’s begin with a wee refresher. On April 11, as readers may recall, Argentina’s faux libertarian President Javier Milei gave a televised address to the nation. Flanked by his senior cabinet members, Milei told the Argentine people that his government had finally lifted the currency controls that had plagued the economy since 2011 so that people can once again buy dollars unhindered.

    Economic stability, he said, had finally returned to the country — all thanks to another, ahem, IMF bailout, Argentina’s 23rd since becoming a member of the fund in 1956.

    The latest $42 billion injection — $20 billion from the IMF, $12 billion from the World Bank and $10 billion from the Interamerican Development Bank — was intended to artificially prop up the peso in the months leading up to mid-term elections in October. But the peso is already in freefall, and the elections are just two months away."

    nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/le

    #Argentina #Milei #IMF #Neoliberalism #Austerity #Debt #PublicDebt

  12. Here's @RichardJMurphy pointing out the socially positive role that public debt plays in a modern capitalist society... so ignore the headlines & read Murphy's alternative Govt. press release on todays news of 'record' borrowing.

    Good sense is easy to find once you step away from the mainstream media.

    #politics #media #PublicDebt #economics

    taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/0

  13. "What happens when you crush the spending power of the people and you give lots of money to big business? Big business collects this money — of course, it’s free money; why wouldn’t they take it? But they look outside the window of their skyscraper in Paris or Frankfurt, and all they see are impecunious masses.

    They’re not going to invest, because the many out there can’t afford to buy high value-added goods. But they have this money that has been printed and given to them, so what do they do? They go to the stock exchange and they buy back their own shares.

    Their share price goes through the roof, and their bonus is connected to their share price, so they are laughing all the way to the bank. They go and buy a new apartment, a new yacht, more Bitcoins, a work of art. Asset prices go up, while the many are still impecunious and there’s no investment.

    After fifteen years of that, it’s the end of Europe. It is the reason why Germany is now deindustrializing. It is deindustrializing because it did not invest anything in the last fifteen years. The managing directors and the members of the board of directors were doing splendidly, but they were not investing.

    While the Chinese were investing their heads off and Elon Musk was investing in Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, and so on, Europe had zero net productive investment for something like sixteen or seventeen years. That is preposterous. The result is that now, Europe is dying. If people ask — and they should ask — why it is that fascism is having a second or third wind, it is because this is what happens when you have something like 1929."

    jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varo

    #EU #Greece #Euro #EuroCrisis #OxiReferendum #Democracy #PublicDebt #Austerity

  14. Also of course bringing "freedom & democracy to the world at the point of a gun" plus lots of other disruptive shit.

    Like, you know, crashing the #GlobalEconomy plus exploding the #PublicDebt.

    .. and all that while still being in the midst of a #Coup_d_Etat.

    🤔🤔

    I wouldn't bet money on team #Trump.

  15. LoL - Where there's smoke, there's fire and we all know that for the foreseeable future the US will need to continue to buy lots of weapons to send for free to Israel :-D

    "Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has insisted the US would never default on its debt as he sought to assuage Wall Street concerns over the state of the country’s public finances.

    “The United States of America is never going to default, that is never going to happen,” Bessent told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. “We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall.”

    Investor jitters over the size of the US federal debt have mounted as President Donald Trump has urged Congress to push through his “big beautiful” budget bill, which is expected to ratchet up the federal deficit.

    Bessent dismissed concerns raised by JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon on Friday that the US bond market would “crack” under the weight of the country’s rising debt."

    ft.com/content/9c652f09-cfca-4

    #USA #Trump #Debt #PublicDebt #FederalDeficit

  16. John Harwood: "House Speaker Mike Johnson calls government debt the number one threat facing America. Now he's working to make it bigger with Trump's budget-busting tax cuts":
    zeteo.com/p/dont-fall-for-repu
    #greed #PublicDebt #TaxCutsForTheRich #politics

  17. For example, Malpass uncritically parrots the NatACT talking point that public debt needs to be "brought under control". Never noting that NZ public debt is low by OECD standards;

    briefingpapers.co.nz/public-de

    Nor that public debt isn't necessarily the existential crisis it's made out to be. Nor that private debt to foreign lenders is just as much a potential risk to public finances as public debt, which is at least under some level of democratic control;

    scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2010/S00

    (2/2)

    #PublicDebt

  18. "Since the Seventies, America’s deficits have provided East Asia (first Japan, then China) and Europe (primarily Germany) the demand for their factories’ manufactures. In return, the European Union, Japan and later China sent their accumulated profits to Wall Street to be recycled into US private and public debt, some equities, and real estate. A Chinese official once described this mechanism to me as a “dark deal”. “Our Dark Deal with the Americans,” the official explained, “turns on the US trade deficit, which keeps demand for our manufactures high. In return, our capitalists invest the bulk of their dollar superprofits into America’s FIRE”. (The acronym stands for “Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.”) “Once this process got underway, America shifted much of its industrial production to our shores.”

    The problem with this global recycling mechanism was that, to function smoothly, it had to generate larger and larger imbalances: greater trade deficits for the US and more accumulated savings for Northern Europe and East Asia. But there are limits to how large imbalances can grow. Ruptures are inevitable. The longer they are delayed, the greater the pain they inflict — a truth that centrists never acknowledged, not even when it was tearing down their houses.

    Trump’s greatest strength comes from asking the pressing question that the centrists refuse to countenance: what comes after the Dark Deal? What comes after the imbalances built on the US trade deficit have proven unsustainably massive? Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, put it succinctly in a recent speech at the IMF: “Everywhere we look across the international economic system today, we see imbalance… This status quo of large and persistent imbalances is not sustainable… The persistent over-reliance on the United States for demand is resulting in an evermore unbalanced global economy.”"

    unherd.com/2025/05/the-centris

    #Centrism #Liberalism #USA #Trump #FreeTrade #PoliticalEconomy #TradeDeficit #PublicDebt

  19. "Japan’s finance minister has publicly identified the country’s more than $1tn holdings of US Treasuries as a “card” in its trade negotiations with the Trump administration, in a rare baring of teeth by America’s closest ally in Asia.

    Speaking during a television interview on Friday, Katsunobu Kato was asked whether Japan would use its traditional stance as a non-seller of Treasuries as a tool in trade talks with Washington.

    “It does exist as a card,” said Kato, adding that “whether or not we use that card is a different decision”.

    Japanese holders, including the government, own $1.13tn of Treasuries, the largest hoard held by a foreign nation.

    There is no suggestion that Tokyo is considering any sales of official Treasury holdings. But traders said that even the reference to such an action as a “card” could add to volatility in a US bond market that has lurched violently since April 2 when Donald Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on US trade partners."

    ft.com/content/912f861f-26c8-4

    #USA #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar #Protectionism #Japan #PublicDebt #USTreasuries

  20. Hmmm... I see that Japan, the largest holder of US T-bills (US public debt), now sees them as a 'card' in their negotiations with the US over tariff levels. They claim they are not considering divesting, but even to call it a card must put their holdings 'into play'....

    How this will play in the Court of the Tangerine Tyrant will be interesting.

    #PublicDebt #politics #japan

    h/t FT

  21. "Analysts and fund managers say the Treasury sell-off was primarily powered by a retrenchment of investors from the US government bond market, fearful that tariffs would fuel inflation and unnerved by what some say is an increasingly erratic administration that has antagonised allies and imperilled the country’s own economy.

    However, many stress that the turmoil was also exacerbated by highly leveraged hedge fund strategies. These “relative-value” trades usually seek to take advantage of often tiny differences in prices between Treasury bonds and various derivatives contracts linked to them. Using short-term funding markets to borrow extreme amounts of money, they can transform small profits into large ones.

    These trades have helped turn the club of big hedge funds that pursue them into vital pillars of the $29tn Treasury market, helping restrain the US government’s borrowing costs at a time when interest rates have been rising. Their importance is only likely to climb if foreign investors pull back from the Treasury market, as many analysts and fund managers predict.

    However, many fear that they also make Treasuries vulnerable to sudden shocks."

    ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4

    #USA #Trump #Tariffs #TreasuryMarket #HedgeFunds #PublicDebt

  22. "In the case that concerns us here, the request to the IMF for a loan violates not only the National Constitution but also Law 27,612, passed in 2021, whose second article states that “any financing program or public credit operation carried out with the IMF, as well as any extension of the amounts – in addition to terms and conditions – of such programs or operations, shall require a law of the Honorable Congress of the Nation that expressly approves it.” In short, Javier Milei’s government is acting in open violation of the Constitution and the laws of this country, something that prima facie would violate the IMF’s own regulations, whose Board, if it did not take this situation into account, would become an accomplice in a violation of the Constitution and the laws of Argentina.

    In view of this accumulation of irregularities, the debt that Argentina may contract becomes an “odious debt” not enforceable by the eventual creditors, in this case the IMF. This is something that has been sustained by US jurisprudence since the end of the 19th century up to the present day. "

    socialistproject.ca/2025/03/op

    #IMF #Argentina #Milei #Authoritarianism #PublicDebt #OdiousDebt

  23. 'fiscal credibility' cont'd:

    The UK has no record of defaults & is very unlikely to now, so the real issue is yield (price of bonds). The lower the price the higher the yield of existing bonds on the secondary market, and the higher the interest rate that would need to be offered on new issues to 'encourage' buyers.

    This comes down to better profits for investors - so the judgement of 'bond vigilantes' is all about their profits when they spot political weakness!

    #PublicDebt #politics
    2/2

  24. This week, you're going to hear a lot about 'fiscal credibility' & the 'bond market sentiment'.... to translate:

    Investors who buy/deal in public debt are expected to judge Rachel Reeves Spring Statement by how it will support growth, & importantly produce an economy without an inflation 'problem'.

    Bond holders want a stable currency for their assets (Gilts/public debt) so interest payments hold their value & a clear indication of no default.

    1/2

    #PublicDebt #Politics

  25. The next time someone tells you that the UK public debt service costs are unsustainable & as a result cuts are required to public sector budgets (such as welfare or health) you might want to show them the chart below, which shows the UK is both below the OECD average & well below the proportion paid by the USA.

    Such claims are not economics but political cover for cuts they want to make regardless of any fiscal rules or claims for probity!

    Just sayin'

    #PublicDebt #politics

  26. "La France Insoumise MP David Guiraud told Jacobin in January that France’s manufactured deficit crisis was part of a premeditated plan to cut social spending.

    “French capitalists have never tolerated social security,” Guiraud said then. “When it was created . . . it was hundreds of billions of euros which escaped the logic of the private sector, hundreds of billions of euros which they couldn’t make a profit off of. They know that they’re breaking social security. They know it. I think they do it deliberately for the most part.”

    Boosting military spending while trying to maintain “fiscal discipline” will result in the same thing. A column by Janan Ganesh in the Financial Times on March 5 titled “Europe must trim its welfare state to build a warfare state” gave away the game even more directly.

    “[T]he welfare state as we have known it must retreat somewhat: not enough that we will no longer call it by that name, but enough to hurt,” Ganesh wrote.

    The threat of war is a useful motive.

    “Chronic discomfort isn’t enough,” Ganesh elaborated. “An element of real fear has to come in, as perhaps it has now.”"

    jacobin.com/2025/03/france-eu-

    #EU #France #Macron #RadicalCentrism #Rearmament #WarfareState #WelfareState #Austerity #PublicDebt

  27. Spain's central government has agreed to forgive over 17 billion dollars in debt owed by Catalunya.

    Learn more with the link in bio - @rorshok.spain

    #Spain #Catalunya #DebtForgiveness #SpainPolitics #EconomicPolicy #Finance #GovernmentDecision #BreakingNews #EuroEconomy #PublicDebt

  28. CW: The math does not lie - Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) shows his work

    It is sooo much worse than you thought.

    #PublicDebt #DeficitSpending

    The description (copied from YouTube)

    "Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) delivered a passionate speech on the House floor about the national debt and US spending."

    This was posted by @[email protected]
    @[email protected]
    @[email protected]

    youtu.be/TCyysMU66VA?si=NPhqXD

  29. #IMF warns #Global #PublicDebt to pass $100 Trillion by end of this year. #FiscalMonitor #Report urges govts to put through #TaxHikes and make drastic cuts to #PublicSpending and #BudgetCuts despite well publicized plans to do just the opposite.

    Both #USElection #PresidentialCandidates are committed to policies that will add trillions in #debt to a fragile US #economy while in #EU govt #bonds have experienced sell offs, and #UK seeks to "tweak the definition of public debt used for the UK’s #fiscal
    rules to allow for more #borrowing."

    Global debt will be almost 20% points of GDP higher next 3 years than previously projected: "Much more substantial fiscal adjustments are needed".

    on.ft.com/3YnU6NB via @ftworldnews #GiftLink #FinancialTimes

  30. The interest the UK pays on its #publicdebt is rising, mainly due to around a quarter of all #gilts being indie-linked & therefore rising in cost in line with #Inflation.

    You'll note on this (again) the UK is unusual

    Whatever else is going on, the #Tories inability to find a workable strategy to combat inflation, allows them to continue arguing for fiscal #austerity... so no wonder they are not dong so much about inflation, it serves (again) their small state ideology (by other means).