#usecon — Public Fediverse posts

1 BMO: After splurging last quarter, #American #consumers pulled back in July. #Retailsales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, and not just due to a reversal at #autodealers and #servicestations. Excluding the latter two categories, sales slipped 0.2%. 🧵
#usecon

1 BMO: After splurging last quarter, #American #consumers pulled back in July. #Retailsales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, and not just due to a reversal at #autodealers and #servicestations. Excluding the latter two categories, sales slipped 0.2%. 🧵
#usecon

2 CIBC: The #core #CPI measure grew 0.2% in July, also in line with expectation. #Commodities less food and energy rose 0.2% after two consecutive monthly declines. #Shelter increased by 0.1%, as it did in June.
#usecon #inflation

1 CIBC: No surprise today with the July US #CPI release in the US. Headline #inflation rose 0.1% in July, in line with consensus expectation. The tame headline increase was helped by lower #gasoline #prices. 🧵
#inflation #usecon

An insidious #jobs metric despite overall okay #labor market reporting —

Long-term #unemployment hitting people most heavily in prime working years (25-54). And "workers from mid-20s to mid-30s represent both the highest number of overall jobless people and...highest portion of the long-term unemployed."

"Even as some long-term unemployed people land jobs, tepid hiring means more people are at risk of falling into that category, keeping numbers high."

#USA #USecon
--
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/unemployment-long-term-job-market-629199f9

An insidious #jobs metric despite overall okay #labor market reporting —

Long-term #unemployment hitting people most heavily in prime working years (25-54). And "workers from mid-20s to mid-30s represent both the highest number of overall jobless people and...highest portion of the long-term unemployed."

"Even as some long-term unemployed people land jobs, tepid hiring means more people are at risk of falling into that category, keeping numbers high."

#USA #USecon
--
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/unemployment-long-term-job-market-629199f9

89% increase in US tech #layoffs in the first 6 months of 2026 (Jan-June) compared to the last 6 months of 2025 (July-Dec)* 🧐

Per the article:

"The #tech sector has laid off roughly 140,000 employees in the #US so far this year, more than any other industry..."

"AI was the main reason companies gave for the cuts for a fourth straight month... cited in about 23% of all job cut announcements in 2026."

#USA #USecon #data #analysis
#jobs

* explanation in next post
--
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/burnout-frustration-and-heartbreak-amazon-layoffs-take-their-toll.html

89% increase in US tech #layoffs in the first 6 months of 2026 (Jan-June) compared to the last 6 months of 2025 (July-Dec)* 🧐

Per the article:

"The #tech sector has laid off roughly 140,000 employees in the #US so far this year, more than any other industry..."

"AI was the main reason companies gave for the cuts for a fourth straight month... cited in about 23% of all job cut announcements in 2026."

#USA #USecon #data #analysis
#jobs

* explanation in next post
--
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/burnout-frustration-and-heartbreak-amazon-layoffs-take-their-toll.html

This seems bad...
and a bit curious.

Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 2.4% in June ~

"Sales of existing homes fell last month, missing expectations of a 0.7% increase"

#USA #USecon #USeconomy
#housing #HousingMarket #MyThoughts

This seems bad...
and a bit curious.

Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 2.4% in June ~

"Sales of existing homes fell last month, missing expectations of a 0.7% increase"

#USA #USecon #USeconomy
#housing #HousingMarket #MyThoughts

OpenAI proposes 5% stake to Trump administration to ease Washington pressure ~

To this I say — Exactly what kind of economy is this now 🤔

Also: WTF (what the fudge)

#USA #USecon #economics #USpol #trump #MyThoughts
---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/openai-proposes-us-government-own-5percent-stake-to-address-political-blowback.html

OpenAI proposes 5% stake to Trump administration to ease Washington pressure ~

To this I say — Exactly what kind of economy is this now 🤔

Also: WTF (what the fudge)

#USA #USecon #economics #USpol #trump #MyThoughts
---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/openai-proposes-us-government-own-5percent-stake-to-address-political-blowback.html

The June #jobs report is seriously anemic with ~1/2 of expected #jobs being added to the #US economy.

7.1 million people remain unemployed (not including the rising number of individuals who have stepped out of the jobs market, which is another story).

The #unemployment rate is now 4.2% vs. 4.3%.

#USA #USecon #USeconomy
---

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-jobs-report-june-2026-123456841.html

The June #jobs report is seriously anemic with ~1/2 of expected #jobs being added to the #US economy.

7.1 million people remain unemployed (not including the rising number of individuals who have stepped out of the jobs market, which is another story).

The #unemployment rate is now 4.2% vs. 4.3%.

#USA #USecon #USeconomy
---

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-jobs-report-june-2026-123456841.html

Whether or not you're a fan of the Fed, Trump's ravenous drive to control the US central bank should give you pause.

#USA #USpol #Fed #CentralBank #trump #finance #economics #USecon #MyThoughts
---

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/trump-fire-fed-governor-cook.html

Whether or not you're a fan of the Fed, Trump's ravenous drive to control the US central bank should give you pause.

#USA #USpol #Fed #CentralBank #trump #finance #economics #USecon #MyThoughts
---

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/trump-fire-fed-governor-cook.html

RE: https://mstdn.social/@dalfen/116767002986436845

This right here – big-time circular reasoning and talk.

#Warsh is good at talking.

#MyThoughts
#Fed #USA #FederalReserve #CentralBank #finance #economics #USecon #USeconomy

RE: https://mstdn.social/@dalfen/116767002986436845

This right here – big-time circular reasoning and talk.

#Warsh is good at talking.

#MyThoughts
#Fed #USA #FederalReserve #CentralBank #finance #economics #USecon #USeconomy

2 But scale cuts both ways. As some #firms grow and others get disrupted, we will over time see a meaningful impact on the US #labormarket. #AI #usecon

CIBC: The US April #producerprice #data provided a shockingly high upside surprise, but the details look less scary. The final demand #price #index surged by 1.4% m/m & the ex. food/energy index jumped by 1.0% m/m, relative to consensus expectations of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively #usecon #inflation

1 Bloomberg: The New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators show #retailspending in the US driven by #high-incomehouseholds earning more than $125,000 per year. 🧵 #usecon #USEconomy #KShapedEconomy

3 CIBC: … well above the 0.2% consensus expectation, while the prior month's reading was revised up by a tick to 0.6%. #retailsales #usecon

2 CIBC: However, that didn't stop #consumers from #spending elsewhere, as the control group of sales that feeds more directly into non-auto goods #consumption in #GDP (and excludes gasoline, autos, restaurants, and building materials) posted a 0.7% increase … 🧵 #usecon #retailsales

1 CIBC: #Retailsales surged in the #US in March, driven both by higher #gasoline #prices and resilience in discretionary categories. The 1.7% headline increase was above the consensus expectation of 1.4% and included a 16% jump in gasoline station receipts. 🧵 #usecon

3 CIBC: … greater pass through to core components, but looking beyond the war-induced #volatility, #tariff impacts appear to be boosting some categories still, with #apparel #prices rising strongly again, while #shelterprices ticked up on the month on the owners' equivalent rent component. #usecon

1 CIBC: #Pricepressures surged in the #US in March, as the impact of the #war caused #gasoline #prices to spike. The 0.9% m/m gain in headline #CPI prices was in line with expectations, with a 21% jump in prices at the pump driving almost three-quarters of that advance 🧵 #usecon #inflation

1 BMO: The February #Employment report will change the narrative in the #markets of a resilient and possibly improving #U.S.labormarket, highlighting the two-sided risks the #Fed faces as we digest the #economic impacts from the %war in #Iran. 🧵 #usecon #jobsdata #NFP

1 BMO: The February #Employment report will change the narrative in the #markets of a resilient and possibly improving #U.S.labormarket, highlighting the two-sided risks the #Fed faces as we digest the #economic impacts from the %war in #Iran. 🧵 #usecon #jobsdata #NFP

👀 🤔 tl;dr: 'In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.'

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Federal Resvere Bank of NY https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/ #econ #uspoli #usecon #tariffs

👀 🤔 tl;dr: 'In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.'

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Federal Resvere Bank of NY https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/ #econ #uspoli #usecon #tariffs

1 Desjardins: #US #price growth was relatively benign to start the year. Headline #consumerprices rose just 0.171% in January, undershooting expectations for a 0.3% increase. That pushed headline #inflation three ticks lower to 2.4%. 🧵 #CPI #usecon

“Oh, and while both Donald #Trump and Scott #Bessent have recently asserted that #constructionjobs are booming, #employment growth in #construction, which was high under Biden, has in fact fallen precipitously:” open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug... #usecon #PaulKrugman

US Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in January https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/ #usecon #econ #cdnecon

(🎁 link) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-cant-always-come-to-the-rescue-not-every-bank-is-too-big-to-fail-203a836d?st=Pr7fb8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink #usecon #debt #finance #economy

'With each crisis over the past 15 years, the Federal Reserve has expanded the scope and scale of its interventions. This gradual mission creep has blurred the line between routine liquidity support and support for insolvent institutions, undermining the very purpose of central-bank independence.' https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-mission-creep-undermines-its-legitimacy-by-amit-seru-2025-12 #usecon #econ #debt

'With each crisis over the past 15 years, the Federal Reserve has expanded the scope and scale of its interventions. This gradual mission creep has blurred the line between routine liquidity support and support for insolvent institutions, undermining the very purpose of central-bank independence.' https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-mission-creep-undermines-its-legitimacy-by-amit-seru-2025-12 #usecon #econ #debt

Most Americans don’t agree. The problem is that economic stats often describe the system as a whole, not the lived experience of many of the country’s 340 million people. And about 74 percent think the economy is at best fair and mostly poor.
#economics #tariffs #USecon #trade #recession #inequality #GDP #markets #macroeconomics
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/12/23/economy-tariff-inflation-jobs/

Most Americans don’t agree. The problem is that economic stats often describe the system as a whole, not the lived experience of many of the country’s 340 million people. And about 74 percent think the economy is at best fair and mostly poor.
#economics #tariffs #USecon #trade #recession #inequality #GDP #markets #macroeconomics
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/12/23/economy-tariff-inflation-jobs/

Apollo Global Management Chief Economist #TorstenSlok: “Despite the turbulence surrounding #LiberationDay in April, #foreign #investors ended up buying more #US #assets in 2025 than in 2024. #markets #Usecon

Apollo Global Management Chief Economist #TorstenSlok: “Despite the turbulence surrounding #LiberationDay in April, #foreign #investors ended up buying more #US #assets in 2025 than in 2024. #markets #Usecon

1 CIBC: #US #CPI #inflation was softer than expected in November, supporting the case for further #Fed cuts in the New Year. Headline inflation was 2.7% year-over-year, which was well below the 3.1% expected by the consensus. Core inflation was similarly weaker than anticipated 🧵 #USEconomy #usecon

1 CIBC: #US #CPI #inflation was softer than expected in November, supporting the case for further #Fed cuts in the New Year. Headline inflation was 2.7% year-over-year, which was well below the 3.1% expected by the consensus. Core inflation was similarly weaker than anticipated 🧵 #USEconomy #usecon

🤔 Fresh Concerns About AI Spending Are Rattling Wall Street (🎁 link) https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ai-fed-interest-rate-stock-market-749e18e2?st=hNHaJN&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink #aihype #ai #usecon #llm

🤔 Record spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was partly due to historic use of buy-now-pay-later options https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-fear-people-will-end-up-in-financial-trouble-americans-will-spend-a-record-20-billion-via-buy-now-pay-later-during-the-holidays-576d7f35?st=vmiqRc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink #debt #consumerism #blackfriday #cybermonday #economics #usecon #econ

🤔 Rosenbluth Lecture featuring James Galbraith: North America in the world economy. https://youtu.be/EIc9jOHRFy4?si=nbGePteiW2ugTT3I via CCPA #cdnecon #usecon #cdnpoli #uspoli #ai #llm #aihype #econ #canlab #labour #labor

Tech companies are crying that Americans aren't buying new phones fast enough to keep the economy stimulated. Wages have been stagnant for, what, 44 years and you've got the gall to keep raising prices and cry we're not buying enough?

I don't think you should reward this shit with a click but, in case you must, I've got a barely tweaked URL to save you the trouble I already spent looking up the article.

source: cnbc DOT com/2025/11/23/how-device-hoarding-by-americans-is-costing-economy.html

#Technology #USEcon #USPOL #Technically

More interesting #US #jobs data from #DeanBaker: “The category, ‘ #scientific #research and development services’ has lost almost 20k jobs this year (2.0 percent). It had been growing modestly, adding 6,400 jobs in 2024.” #usecon

I don't know. It's a pretty bold move for Realtor.com to say it's a "buyers market" because interest rates are down. No. A buyer's market would involve overturning the extraordinary overvaluation of property / housing that we've seen to at least 2019 levels. And I still hold that in many regions of the U.S., the housing prices were artificially inflated for more than 20 years prior to that 2019.

However, I'll grant that if wages hadn't been artificially stagnated since the late 70s, then the 1999 housing prices (if they remained the same) may not have been (relatively) inflated.

#USEcon #USPOL #LiterallyBecauseEconIsPolitics

'Federal policy has jumped the gun: We don’t yet know if AI will transform the economy or even be profitable. Yet Washington is insulating the industry from all sorts of risk. If a bubble does pop, we’ll all be left holding the bag.' (🎁 link) https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-may-already-be-bailing-out-the-ai-business-dd67d452?st=2nbe6h&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink #aihype #usecon #uspoli #ai #llm

“Last-minute changes to the U.S. Trade Representative Section 301 port fees resulted in one U.S.-based ocean carrier (ACL) being reclassified and now facing an annual $34 million tariff bill.”

The changes that brought new fees are “on top of the new standard USTR port fees, which went into effect on Tuesday and have led to broader confusion among ship owners about potential financial hits.”

#USA #US #USecon #economics #shipping #freight #USpol #trump #tariffs
—

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/new-trump-port-fees-slam-us-freight-ship-owner-34-million-tariff-bill.html

The United States is entering a period that looks and feels like stagflation, the dreaded s-word that hasn’t been uttered much since the 1970s and early 1980s. It means both unemployment and inflation are climbing. So far, it has been a modest rise that is probably best described as “stagflation-lite,” but it’s still distressing because it’s almost impossible to cure both of these ills at the same time.
#macroeconomics #economics #recession #Trumpism #USecon #policy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/09/17/economy-inflation-fed-rate-cut/

🤔 Postal traffic to U.S. sank 80% after Trump administration ended exemption on low-value parcels https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps-tariffs/article/postal-traffic-to-us-sank-80-after-trump-administration-ended-exemption-on-low-value-parcels/ #tariffs #inflation #econ #usecon

1 BMO: #U.S. #labormarket deterioration intensified in August with net #job gains slumping dangerously close to stall speed. This raises the risk of a harder landing for #consumerspending and the #economy in the months ahead. 🧵 #nonfarmpayrolls #jobs #jobsdata #usecon