#survation — Public Fediverse posts

SCOTLAND OPINION POLL

Headline Holyrood regional list voting intention by #Survation:

🟡 * National Party: 28% (-1)
🔴 * Labour: 22% (+2)
🔵 * Conservatives: 16% (+3)
⚪ Reform UK: 12% (-4)
🟢 * Greens: 10% (+2)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (=)
🟤 Alba: 2% (-1)

* Scottish

Holyrood constituency voting intention:

🟡 * National Party: 36% (+2)
🔴 * Labour: 22% (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 14% (-3)
🔵 * Conservatives: 13% (+1)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (+1)
🟢 * Greens: 5% (+1)
🟤 Alba: 1% (=)

* Scottish

Conducted 16-22 April 2025. Changes with 6-13 March 2025.

Tables: https://diffleypartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/April-2025-Voter-Intention-Poll-Diffley-Partnership-FOR-WEB-2.xlsb

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #AlbaParty #ScotPol #Scotland

SCOTLAND OPINION POLL

Holyrood constituency voting intention by #Survation:

🟡 * National Party: 31% (=)
🔴 * Labour: 27% (-4)
🔵 * Conservatives: 14% (+1)
⚪ Reform UK: 10% (+1)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (+1)
🟢 * Greens: 6% (=)
🟤 Alba Party: 1% (=)

* Scottish

Conducted 1-15 November 2024. Changes with 10-13 September 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #scotpol #Scotland #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #ReformUK #SNP #GreenParty #ScottishGreens #AlbaParty

SCOTLAND OPINION POLL

Headline Holyrood regional list voting intention by #Survation:

🟡 * National Party: 27% (-1)
🔴 * Labour: 25% (-1)
🔵 * Conservatives: 15% (+1)
⚪ Reform UK: 11% (+1)
🟢 * Greens: 10% (=)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
🟤 Alba Party: 3% (=)

* Scottish

Conducted 1-15 November 2024. Changes with 10-13 September 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #scotpol #Scotland #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #ReformUK #SNP #GreenParty #ScottishGreens #AlbaParty

SCOTLAND OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention by #Survation:

🟡 SNP: 31% (=)
🔴 Labour: 28% (-3)
🔵 Conservatives: 15% (+1)
⚪ Reform UK: 13% (+2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 6% (-3)

SNP lead of 3 points.

Conducted 1-15 November 2024. Changes with 10-13 September 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #scotpol #Scotland #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #ReformUK #SNP

WALES SENEDD OPINION POLL

Senedd regional list voting intention from #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 29% (-7)
🌻 Plaid Cymru : 20% (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 19% (+18)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (-7)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 7% (+3)
🟢 Green: 7% (+3)

Changes with Senedd election 2021.

Note: The Senedd is due to change to a multi-member constituency party list voting system.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #wales #walespol #cymru #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #Senedd

WALES SENEDD OPINION POLL

Senedd constituency voting intention from #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 30% (-10)
🌻 Plaid Cymru : 21% (+1)
⚪ Reform UK: 20% (+18)
🔵 Conservatives: 17% (-8)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
🟢 Green: 5% (+3)

Changes with Senedd election 2021.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #wales #walespol #cymru #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #Senedd

WALES WESTMINSTER OPINION POLL

Headline Welsh Westminster voting intention from #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 33% (-4)
⚪ Reform UK: 21% (+4)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (=)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (+2)
🟢 Green Party: 5% (=)

Labour lead of 12 points.

Conducted 18 October - 4 November 2024. Changes with GE 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #walespol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #PlaidCymru #GreenParty #ReformUK #wales #cymru #GE2024

GB OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 38% (-3)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (=)
⚪ Reform UK: 17% (+3)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 11% (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 7% (+2)
🟡 SNP: 3% (=)

Labour lead of 19 points.

Conducted (by telephone) 26 June - 2 July 2024. Changes with 21-25June 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #GE2024

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from final MRP poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 484 (+281)
🔵 Conservatives: 64 (-301)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 61 (+50)
🟡 SNP: 10 (-38)
⚪ Reform UK: 7 (+7)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 3 (+2)

Conducted 15 June - 1 July 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

I'm sceptical.

Details, including map: https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #MRP #GE2024

SCOTLAND OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention by #Survation for #BallotBoxScotland:

🔴 Labour: 37% (+1)
🟡 SNP: 31% (-1)
🔵 Conservatives: 14% (-3)
⚪ Reform UK: 8% (+5)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 7% (-2)
⚫ Others: 4% (+1)

Conducted 21-25 June 2024. Changes with 23-27 May 2024.

Poll also finds Scots opposing Scottish independence by 54% to 46%.

Details: https://ballotbox.scot/survation-june-2024/

#ukpolitics #ukpol #scotpol #Scotland #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #ReformUK #SNP #GE2024

GB OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 41% (=)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (-2)
⚪ Reform UK: 14% (-1)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 12% (=)
🟢 Green Party: 5% (-1)
🟡 SNP: 2% (=)

Labour lead of 23 points.

Conducted 21-25 June 2024. Changes with 14-18 June 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #GE2024

CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL

Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn's seat) constituency opinion poll by #Survation for @LeftieStats:

🔴 Labour: 43% (-21)
⚫ Independent (Corbyn): 29% (new)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 7% (-9)
🟢 Green Party: 7% (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 6% (+5)
🔵 Conservatives: 6% (-4)

Conducted 20-25 June 2024. Changes with 2019 general election notional results.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #GE2024 #IslingtonNorth #JeremyCorbyn

CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL

Richmond & Northallerton (Rishi Sunak's seat) constituency opinion poll by #Survation:

🔵 Conservatives: 39% (-24)
🔴 Labour: 28% (+12)
⚪ Reform UK: 18% (new)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (-3)
🟢 Green Party: 4% (=)

Conducted 19-21 June 2024. Changes with 2019 general election notional results.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #GE2024 #Richmond #Northallerton #RishiSunak

CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL

Holborn & St Pancras (Keir Starmer's) constituency opinion poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 54% (-12)
🟢 Green Party: 14% (+9)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (-3)
🔵 Conservatives: 9% (-6)
⚫ Independent (Feinstein): 6% (new)
⚪ Reform UK: 5% (+3)

Conducted 19-21 June 2024. Changes with 2019 general election normal result.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #GE2024 #Holborn #StPancras #KeirStarmer

GB OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention from a (rare) telephone opinion poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 41% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 20% (-3)
⚪ Reform UK: 15% (+3)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 12% (+2)
🟢 Green Party: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 2% (-1)

Labour lead of 21 points.

Conducted 14-18 June 2024. Changes with 5-11 June 2024.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #GE2024

CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL

Clacton constituency opinion poll by #Survation (this is where Farage is standing):

⚪ Reform UK: 42% (new)
🔵 Conservatives: 27% (-45)
🔴 Labour: 24% (+8)
🟢 Green Party: 5% (+2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 2% (-4)

Conducted 11-13 June 2024. Changes with 2019 general election result.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #GE2024 #Clacton #Farage

One final titbit for now:

Over on the birdsite, @LeftieStats has managed to successfully crowdfund a constituency opinion poll for Islington North by #Survation. It will be fascinating to see how well Jeremy Corbyn's doing in his run as an independent.

OPINION POLL ANALYSIS

So as we get to the end of manifesto-launch week, here's what the polls are saying:

Lib Dems and Reform UK are consistently up, Conservatives are noticeably down, Labour are down slightly, Greens and SNP are basically holding steady.

And we've had the #Survation MRP projecting that Reform UK are going to win 12 seats(!) while the Conservatives plummet to 83 seats.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #GE2024

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Note: #Survation calculate headline seat numbers differently to other MRP polls. They allocate seat numbers based on probability of winning, so if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats then Survation will give them 2 seats even though in reality they could win anywhere between 0 and 4 of them on the night.

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #GE2024

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline seats projection from MRP poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 487 (+285)
🔵 Conservatives: 71 (-294)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 43 (+32)
🟡 SNP: 26 (-33)
⚪ Reform UK: 3 (+3)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 2 (-1)
🟢 Green Party: 0 (-1)

Changes with 2019 GE.

Conducted 22 May - 2 June 2024. Question changed part-way through survey.

Details, including map: https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #GE2024

GB OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention. Poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 48% (+4)
🔵 Conservatives: 27% (+2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8% (-2)
⚪ Reform UK: 8% (=)
🟡 SNP: 3% (+1)
🟢 Greens: 2% (-5)

Labour lead of 21 points.

Conducted 21-22 May 2024. Changes with 9-10 May 2024.

#ukpolitics #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #GE2024

GB OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster voting intention. Poll by #Survation:

🔴 Labour: 44% (=)
🔵 Conservatives: 24% (-2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1)
⚪ Reform UK: 8% (-2)
🟢 Greens: 7% (+3)
🟡 SNP: 2% (-1)

Labour lead of 20 points.

Conducted 9-10 May 2024. Changes with 23-25 April 2024.

#ukpolitics #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK

LONDON OPINION POLL

London mayoral voting intention by #Survation:

🔴 Sadiq Khan (Labour): 45% (+1)
🔵 Susan Hall (Conservatives): 26% (=)
🟠 Rob Blackie (Lib Dems): 10% (+3)
🟢 Zoë Garbett (Green): 6% (-1)
⚪ Howard Cox (Reform UK): 5% (=)
⚫ Others: 7% (-2)
🗑️ Count Binface (@CountBinface): 1% (=)

Sadiq Khan leads by 19 points.

Conducted 18-23 April 2024. Changes with 21-26 March 2024.

#ukpolitics #london #sadiqkhan #conservatives #labour #GreenParty #LibDems #ReformUK #polling #CountBinface

GB OPINION POLL

Poll by #Survation. Headline Westminster voting intention:

🔴 Labour: 44% (=)
🔵 Conservatives: 26% (=)
⚪ Reform UK: 10% (+2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2)
🟢 Green 4% (=)
🟡 SNP 3% (=)

Labour lead of 18 points.

Conducted 23-25 April 2024. Changes with 17-19 April 2024.

#ukpolitics #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK

ANALYSIS

Last week we posted about two MRP polls, one from #YouGov and one from #Survation, with significantly different results in each one.

Today we've come across this good piece of analysis (albeit by the Liberal Democrats' party president) taking a deeper dive into the methodological differences between the two polls and how they get such different results as a result of their different decisions:

https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/mrp-vs-mrp-what-happens-when-you

#ukpolitics #polling #mrp

POLLING ANALYSIS

You wait ages for a national MRP poll then two come along at once.

Two big MRP polls for #Survation and #YouGov have been published within the last few days. Both show similar vote shares but both have noticeably different seat predictions.

Survation have Labour on 468 seats, YouGov have them on 403. In one the SNP get 41 seats and Lib Dems get 22, in the other it's 19 and 49 respectively.

Why is that, and which one should you believe? See thread below.

#ukpolitics #polling

Another big MRP poll (GB only) that was published a few days before this account was created is this one from #Survation on behalf of #BestforBritain:

Labour: 468 seats (+266)
Conservatives: 98 (-267)
SNP: 41 (-7)
Liberal Democrats: 22 (+11)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (-2)
Green Party: 0 (-1)

Projected Labour majority of 142 seats.

These are estimated seat projections based on modelled responses from 15,029 adults interviewed from 8 - 22 March.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

#ukpolitics #polling

If, like me, you live in UK and like to spend your Sundays curled up with a warm spreadsheet, may I recommend this one? https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling #polling #election #survation #bestforbritain

If, like me, you live in UK and like to spend your Sundays curled up with a warm spreadsheet, may I recommend this one? https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling #polling #election #survation #bestforbritain

If, like me, you live in UK and like to spend your Sundays curled up with a warm spreadsheet, may I recommend this one? https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling #polling #election #survation #bestforbritain

If, like me, you live in UK and like to spend your Sundays curled up with a warm spreadsheet, may I recommend this one? https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling #polling #election #survation #bestforbritain

If, like me, you live in UK and like to spend your Sundays curled up with a warm spreadsheet, may I recommend this one? https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling #polling #election #survation #bestforbritain

Can Nigel #Farage make it eight in a row?

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/14/can-nigel-farage-make-it-eight-in-a-row/

Lays out some of the reasons to be sceptical of the Poundshop Enoch Powell winning seat in parliament once held by Douglas Carswell (UKIP). Now has a #Tory MP (who was Remain supporter) in a heavily Leave voting seat.
The poll of 509 people was conducted by #Survation between Tuesday and Friday It put #Labour third on 23 per cent and the #LibDems fourth on 6 per cent, with 8 per cent intending to vote for other candidates.