#ge2024 — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #ge2024, aggregated by home.social.
-
I am old enough to remember when the #LibDems were the cautious centrists of #UKpolitics.
Then their first woman leader promised to just ignore the #Brexit referendum. Then their new leader took up farcical aquatic ceremonies and won lots of seats at #GE2024.And now their former leader #TimFarron goes #flagshagging at the LibDem party conference 🙄
-
@klillington it’s a pipe dream fantasy but by jiminy wouldn’t the thoughtful deliberation inherent in #sortition be better. No chance of politician turkeys voting for Christmas however. #ge24 #ge2024 #irishelection
-
Right. Just finished work for the day. Off out to vote now.
I'll be voting left and transferring left.
Hopefully there'll be lots more like me.
-
WALES WESTMINSTER OPINION POLL
Headline Welsh Westminster voting intention from #Survation:
🔴 Labour: 33% (-4)
⚪ Reform UK: 21% (+4)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (=)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (+2)
🟢 Green Party: 5% (=)Labour lead of 12 points.
Conducted 18 October - 4 November 2024. Changes with GE 2024.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #walespol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #PlaidCymru #GreenParty #ReformUK #wales #cymru #GE2024
-
CW: Irish politics
Mary Lou not allowed to challenge the narrative on housing. Almost needs 1.5 times the speaking time when the two other leaders are in complete agreement.
#ge2024 #rtept #LeadersDebate -
I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995 -
I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995 -
I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995 -
I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995 -
I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995 -
Another Ireland is Possible.
One in which ordinary people are put first above the profits of landlords, vulture funds, and big business.
But to do so we must end 100 years of FF/FG rule.
People Before Profit are the only party that have ruled out voting for Harris or Martin as Taoiseach.
In Galway West a vote for Maisie McMaster No. 1 is the strongest message you can send that you want a Left government instead.
#AnotherIrelandIsPossible #GE2024 #Ireland #Galway #GalwayWest #PBP
-
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
-
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
-
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
-
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
-
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
-
So. As I think about #GE2024 #GeneralElection2024 in Ireland, I wonder if anyone know the answers to these:
- What is the closing date/time for registering candidatures?
- Will the candidate lists be published on some official list? or will I need to depend on the diligence of a news outlet like the Irish Times or RTÉ for the detail?
-
Staying off social media for a while. Not just *that* over there but other stuff too. BUT six “I***h L***s M****r” election posters up in my area. No publisher/ printer, or party notified. #GE2024 #IrishPol #IrishPolitics #Election2024 #Northside #Dublin #ElectionPosters #Mastodaoine
For poster offence in Dublin City Council area, report here: https://citizenhub.dublincity.ie/service/Report_Electoral_Poster -
With the announcement of our Galway West candidate, Maisie McMaster, we’ve now launched our Election Campaign Fund over on GoFundMe.
We are not funded by business or landlord interests, so we need all the support from ordinary people like you.
👉 https://www.gofundme.com/f/elect-maisie-mcmaster-galway-west
#GE2024 #Ireland #Galway #PBP #PeopleBeforeProfit #Socialist #EcoSocialism
-
Save the Date: Wednesday, 16th October! 🎉
Join us for a fun Quiz Night at Flannery’s Pub, Glasheen, in support of our Cork South Central candidate, Dr. Monica Oikeh! 🗳️
-
[2/3] The number of "soft" pledges (people who change their mind) is one of the best gauges of how well a candidate is doing in an election. In #ge2019 my local race lost two thirds of our Labour pledges (largely anti-Brexit protest voters who preferred Boris to Corbyn). The numbers were much more promising for #ge2024 Islington North. We recorded dozens of reconfirmed #VoteCorbyn pledges and only one or two "antis" who had changed their mind or originally been recorded wrong.
-
The Green party won four seats when it should have been 40. Surely it’s clear that Britain needs electoral reform | Ellie Chowns | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/11/green-party-four-seats-labour-proportional-representation#ElectoralSystem
#Voting
#VotingSystems
#FPTP
#PR
#GE
#GE2024
#Greens
#UKPol
#Labour
#LibDems
#Tories
#SafeSeats
#Democracy -
[2/3] My #VoteCorbyn volunteering began exactly one week before polling day on Thursday 27th June (two weeks ago today).
I had previously been busy. My American family (last visit #ge2017) managed to plan a visit (with Pirate Prentice levels of #GravitysRainbow empathy) for two weeks in #ge2024. Then I lost my job. Then I got distracted by the amazing #NeilForPoole campaign (final majority 18). And finally I needed a rest. With a book. On my parent's lawn. During the heatwave.
-
[2/3] My #VoteCorbyn volunteering began exactly one week before polling day on Thursday 27th June (two weeks ago today).
I had previously been busy. My American family (last visit #ge2017) managed to plan a visit (with Pirate Prentice levels of #GravitysRainbow empathy) for two weeks in #ge2024. Then I lost my job. Then I got distracted by the amazing #NeilForPoole campaign (final majority 18). And finally I needed a rest. With a book. On my parent's lawn. During the heatwave.
-
[2/3] My #VoteCorbyn volunteering began exactly one week before polling day on Thursday 27th June (two weeks ago today).
I had previously been busy. My American family (last visit #ge2017) managed to plan a visit (with Pirate Prentice levels of #GravitysRainbow empathy) for two weeks in #ge2024. Then I lost my job. Then I got distracted by the amazing #NeilForPoole campaign (final majority 18). And finally I needed a rest. With a book. On my parent's lawn. During the heatwave.
-
[2/3] My #VoteCorbyn volunteering began exactly one week before polling day on Thursday 27th June (two weeks ago today).
I had previously been busy. My American family (last visit #ge2017) managed to plan a visit (with Pirate Prentice levels of #GravitysRainbow empathy) for two weeks in #ge2024. Then I lost my job. Then I got distracted by the amazing #NeilForPoole campaign (final majority 18). And finally I needed a rest. With a book. On my parent's lawn. During the heatwave.
-
[2/3] My #VoteCorbyn volunteering began exactly one week before polling day on Thursday 27th June (two weeks ago today).
I had previously been busy. My American family (last visit #ge2017) managed to plan a visit (with Pirate Prentice levels of #GravitysRainbow empathy) for two weeks in #ge2024. Then I lost my job. Then I got distracted by the amazing #NeilForPoole campaign (final majority 18). And finally I needed a rest. With a book. On my parent's lawn. During the heatwave.
-
Larry, enunciating each word slowly, deliberately, and with intensity: "I have seen some shit."
#LarryTheCat #UKPol #GeneralElection #UKElection #GE2024 #UKGeneralElection
-
CW: ukpol beans
In this house we believe that not all heroes wear capes...
-
GB OPINION POLL ACCURACY
The worst 5 pollsters for accuracy were (in descending order):
NCP (#NCP)
Savanta (#Savanta)
Redfield & Wilton (#RedfieldWilton)
Opinium (#Opinium)
People Polling (#PeoplePolling) -
GB OPINION POLL ACCURACY
Overall, the GB opinion polling average overestimated Labour, underestimated the Conservatives, were all over the place with Reform and missed the increase in votes for 'Other' parties/candidates.
The most accurate, however, in order, were:
1. Norstat UK Polls (#Norstat)
2. Verian Group (#Verian)
3. JL Partners Polls (#JLPartners)All of them were less than 2 points off the actual result for each party on average.
-
PROJECTION WEBSITES ACCURACY
Moving beyond the MRPs, here's how the various prediction websites fared.
All of them were hurt by an overall inaccuracy in national opinion polling which had Labour too high and the Conservatives too low, and all projections overestimated the SNP.
However, Britain Predicts (AKA Britain Elects) were incredibly accurate, followed by @electionmapsuk.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
-
Overall, most MRPs over-estimated Labour and the SNP, and under-estimated the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
Some grossly over-estimated Reform, others under-estimated both Reform and the Greens.
There were also very few MRPs at all where the actual result was completely within their upper and lower results ranges.
-
All the other MRP polls were pretty far off the mark, but the wooden spoon goes to #Savanta who were absolutely miles off the mark across the board:
🔴 Labour: -105
🔵 Conservatives: +68
🟠 Liberal Democrats: +22
🟡 SNP: +1
⚪ Reform UK: +5
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 0
🟢 Greens: +4They also had terrible accuracy for individual seats and the worst website writeup:
-
The next closest MRP, by some margin, was #JLPartners.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
🔴 Labour: -31
🔵 Conservatives: +10
🟠 Liberal Democrats: +14
🟡 SNP: -6
⚪ Reform UK: +4
🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1
🟢 Greens: +3However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.
You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats
-
You can view the final #YouGov MRP projection here:
The actual results were also entirely within the upper and lower estimates by YouGov, and they also seem to have done best at predicting individual constituency results, with very few where the result was outside their margin of error.
Here are the actual results for comparison:
-
MRP POLL ACCURACY
I've been reviewing the various MRP polls to see which one was closest to the actual general election result and #YouGov is the very clear winner.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
🔴 Labour: -19
🔵 Conservatives: +19
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 0
🟡 SNP: -11
⚪ Reform UK: +2
🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1
🟢 Greens: +2#ukpol #ukpolitics #ge2024 #electionresults #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #PlaidCymru #MRP
-
GB POLLING: 2ND CHOICES FOR REFORM UK VOTERS
How people who voted Reform UK at the GE would have voted if Reform UK weren't an option, from poll by #MoreInCommon:
🔵 Conservatives: 36%
⚫ N/A - Did not consider voting for another party: 25%
🔴 Labour: 16%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9%
🟢 Green Party: 7%
🟤 Another party: 5%
⚪ Don't know: 7%Conducted 5 July 2024.
#ukpol #ukpolitics #ge2024 #electionresults #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK
-
‘The entire #ClownShow caught up with us’: #ToryInfighting erupts after defeat
#Honours for the key figures behind decision to hold July poll becomes focus of anger among senior #Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/06/the-entire-clown-show-caught-up-with-us-tory-infighting-erupts-after-defeat
#GE2024 #AfterTheElection -
Lots more interesting nuggets but not sure I'll have a good time to look at them.
But for now - here are nominal Labour and LD targets for 2029:
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democratSome of these are 🤯 - Tory seats that are so rural they don't even have a town name in them, SNP strongholds for Labour, places where local support never materialised for the general for LDs.
This is probably the high water mark, but if not, wow.
-
Lots more interesting nuggets but not sure I'll have a good time to look at them.
But for now - here are nominal Labour and LD targets for 2029:
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democratSome of these are 🤯 - Tory seats that are so rural they don't even have a town name in them, SNP strongholds for Labour, places where local support never materialised for the general for LDs.
This is probably the high water mark, but if not, wow.
-
Lots more interesting nuggets but not sure I'll have a good time to look at them.
But for now - here are nominal Labour and LD targets for 2029:
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democratSome of these are 🤯 - Tory seats that are so rural they don't even have a town name in them, SNP strongholds for Labour, places where local support never materialised for the general for LDs.
This is probably the high water mark, but if not, wow.
-
‘‘He had to be the name on everyone’s lips’: how #AdrianRamsay became #EastAnglia’s first #GreenMP
A relentless campaign and engagement with issues facing voters brought victory in #WaveneyValley
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/he-had-to-be-the-name-on-everyones-lips-how-adrian-ramsay-became-east-anglias-first-green-mp
#GE2024 -
#Labour wins big but the #UK’s #ElectoralSystem is creaking
Voters turned away from a deeply unpopular party but the true story of this election is more complex
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/labour-wins-big-uk-electoral-system-creaking
#GE2024 #AfterTheElection -
Speaking as a Northern Irish Protestant, some Unionists have completely colonial attitudes to the place.
The North of Ireland does not need these sorts of politicians; it does not need the Union at all.
And Unionism, if you like that sort of thing, would be better and more successful without them.
-
Speaking as a Northern Irish Protestant, some Unionists have completely colonial attitudes to the place.
The North of Ireland does not need these sorts of politicians; it does not need the Union at all.
And Unionism, if you like that sort of thing, would be better and more successful without them.
-
Speaking as a Northern Irish Protestant, some Unionists have completely colonial attitudes to the place.
The North of Ireland does not need these sorts of politicians; it does not need the Union at all.
And Unionism, if you like that sort of thing, would be better and more successful without them.
-
Speaking as a Northern Irish Protestant, some Unionists have completely colonial attitudes to the place.
The North of Ireland does not need these sorts of politicians; it does not need the Union at all.
And Unionism, if you like that sort of thing, would be better and more successful without them.
-
Speaking as a Northern Irish Protestant, some Unionists have completely colonial attitudes to the place.
The North of Ireland does not need these sorts of politicians; it does not need the Union at all.
And Unionism, if you like that sort of thing, would be better and more successful without them.