#plaidcymru — Public Fediverse posts

SENEDD: Local Reform members split in childcare row — and Plaid’s flagship policy ‘could cost £710m’

Plaid Cymru’s flagship childcare policy is at the centre of the new Senedd’s first major row — one that has split Reform UK‘s local members down the middle and set the chamber’s two largest opposition parties at each other’s throats.

The universal offer — 20 hours of funded childcare a week, 48 weeks a year, for all children aged nine months to four — was the centrepiece of Plaid’s election campaign, and is billed by the Welsh Government as the most generous in the UK.

It was Reform’s own debate on the policy on Wednesday that lit the fuse — and the party’s Swansea Bay and Carmarthenshire members ended up on opposite sides.

Steven Rodaway, Reform Member for Gŵyr Abertawe, voted for the final, amended motion — while his party colleague in the same constituency, Francesca O’Brien, voted against.

The split was repeated in Sir Gaerfyrddin, where Carmelo Colasanto backed the amended motion while fellow Reform Members Gareth Beer and Sarah Edwards opposed it — and David Mills and Iain McIntosh, Reform Members for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, which takes in Pontardawe and the Swansea Valley, also voted in favour.

In all, 11 of Reform’s 34 Members backed the final motion, 21 voted against and one abstained.

The sequence matters. Reform’s original motion — demanding the Welsh Government publish full costings and an implementation timetable for the policy — was defeated by 39 votes to 52, with only the Welsh Conservatives in support.

An amendment from Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan then deleted Reform’s wording and replaced it — inserting a line noting that “Reform UK had no commitments on childcare in its Welsh manifesto”. It passed by 50 votes to 41 with Conservative support, and every Reform Member present, including the 11, voted against it.

It was the final vote — on the motion as amended, which by then also recognised the Welsh Government’s commitment to provide an update on the policy’s initial costings and phasing — that split the Reform group, passing by 61 votes to 29.

The Welsh Conservatives pounced. Sam Rowlands, the party’s shadow minister for education and families, said better childcare had been a key part of his party’s manifesto and that it would “vote with any party seeking to increase childcare provision”.

“What surprised everyone was that 11 Reform MSs voted with us and Plaid to attack their own party,” he said. “Either Reform MSs have no idea what they were doing or one third have decided to attack their own party. Either way it does not suggest that they are a party ready for Government.”

Reform hit back within hours — in a letter to Conservative leader Darren Millar from Llŷr Powell, the party’s Member for Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, accusing the Conservatives of voting with Plaid Cymru to “delete” Reform’s motion demanding the costings.

Mr Powell turned Mr Rowlands’ own debate words back on him — “If a policy is genuinely affordable, then publishing those full costings should strengthen confidence in it, not weaken it” — and asked whether it was “now Welsh Conservative policy to give the Plaid Government a blank cheque on the implementation of all of their policies”.

The letter opened with a barb about Mr Millar’s absence — “I hope you’re well, given your absence from the Chamber yesterday” — and the voting record shows the Conservative leader did not vote in any of the four divisions.

Reform also escalated the costs argument — publishing a costing paper, produced under the party’s Reform Wales branding and described by its shadow finance minister Cai Parry-Jones as independent, claiming the childcare offer would cost between £388m and £710m a year at full rollout, with a central estimate of £587m and a cost across this Senedd term of nearly £1.4bn.

That is far above the figure of around £400m a year cited in the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ post-election briefing — a figure Reform’s paper claims does not appear in Plaid’s manifesto and “appears to have been supplied” to the IFS by the party. The IFS itself warned last month that finding £400m a year “would likely require cutbacks to other services or increases in taxation”.

The debate itself saw criticism of the government’s timetable from across the chamber — Welsh Labour’s Lynne Neagle said the Senedd had heard “warm words and vague timelines”, while Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds said it was “very perplexing” that Reform had brought the motion despite having made no childcare commitment in its own manifesto.

Plaid’s Sarah Rees went on the attack over Reform’s record on the issue, describing a claim made by one of the party’s candidates during the election campaign — that abuse in nurseries would rise under expanded childcare — as “misogyny and fearmongering, plain and simple”.

The minister delivering the policy is also a local voice — Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams, Plaid Member for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, representing the same constituency as two of the 11 Reform Members who backed the amended motion.

The day before the debate, she unveiled an Expert Steering Group to drive the rollout, with 12.5 hours of funded childcare for all two-year-olds delivered first — saying the offer would “help families with the cost of living” and “give all children the best start in life”.

Swansea Bay News asked Mr Rodaway and Mr Colasanto why they voted for the amended motion having opposed the amendment itself, and asked the Reform UK Senedd group whether the vote had been a free vote. No responses had been received by our deadline; any received will be added to this article.

Childcare was a prominent theme across nearly every party’s manifesto at May’s election — and with Plaid governing as a minority in a 96-seat chamber, Wednesday’s debate is unlikely to be the last time the arithmetic produces a result nobody quite intended.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD ELECTION 2026: The new political map of Wales
How May’s election transformed the region’s representation.

SIR GAERFYRDDIN: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
The election-night result that reshaped Carmarthenshire’s representation.

GŴYR ABERTAWE: What can Swansea expect from new Plaid Cymru MS Gwyn Williams?
Our profile of one of the constituency’s new Members.

AMMANFORD: County’s only nursery school to close — taking Carmarthenshire’s last full-time nursery places with it
The childcare provision story on the ground as the policy row plays out in Cardiff Bay.

HOW WALES VOTES: Swansea MS Mike Hedges says new Senedd election system “does not work” — and “any system is better than the one we used”

Mike Hedges, the Labour MS for Gŵyr Abertawe — the constituency covering Swansea and Gower — has called for an open public discussion on the way Wales elects its Senedd Members, saying the new voting system “does not work.”

The May 2026 election was the first held under Wales’s reformed electoral system, which expanded the Senedd from 60 to 96 Members and introduced a fully proportional model based on 16 constituencies, each electing six Members from closed party lists.

Hedges, who was re-elected in Gŵyr Abertawe, says the system failed on its own terms.

“The new system does not work — it was meant to be proportional but it was not,” he said. “The electorate generally did not understand it.”

His central concern is tactical voting. Hedges argues the election effectively became a two-party contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and that this squeezed the vote going to everyone else.

“We did not have tactical voting — we had voters choosing between two parties, which depressed the votes of the other parties,” he said. “Those who thought they were voting tactically were actually not voting tactically. It did not work in five of the sixteen seats.”

He believes the effect was decisive in his own constituency, where he says fewer than 2,000 votes determined the final seat.

“Take 2,000 off one party and add it to another,” he said, expressing confidence in the figure. He argued that if Reform votes in the constituency had instead gone to the Conservatives, it would have produced a Conservative seat.

The criticism is notable coming from a Member elected under the very system he is attacking. Hedges took one of the six Gŵyr Abertawe seats, while Plaid Cymru took three and Reform UK two, as Labour‘s vote share across Wales fell to third behind both parties.

On the solution, Hedges is clear that change is needed — but stops short of backing the alternative favoured by the new Plaid Cymru government.

Asked whether he would support a move to the Single Transferable Vote — which Plaid committed in its 2026 manifesto to pursuing cross-party support for — he said he was open to reform but not to that particular model.

“We need an open discussion on the size of the Senedd and voting system,” he said. “I do not like STV, but any system is better than the one we used in the last election.”

It places him in unusual agreement with the Plaid government on the principle that the system should be reviewed, even as he rejects their preferred fix.

As a more immediate practical step, Hedges argues that better information would help voters navigate the system as it stands. “The most important thing next time is constituency polls,” he said — suggesting that seat-by-seat polling would give voters a clearer picture of the real contest in their area, rather than relying on national trends.

The new system was introduced through the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, passed by the previous Labour Welsh Government. Supporters argued the closed-list proportional model would produce a chamber that more accurately reflected how people voted, and that the larger Senedd would improve scrutiny of Welsh laws.

Critics — now apparently including some within Labour’s own ranks — have questioned the closed-list element, which means voters choose a party rather than ranking individual candidates, and whether the public was given enough information to understand how it worked.

Whether Hedges’s call for a review gains traction may rest with the Plaid Cymru government, which has its own manifesto commitment to explore electoral reform — albeit by a different route to the one the Swansea MS would choose.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Mike Hedges warns Wales could face another election as Labour counts the cost of historic defeat
The Swansea MS reflects on Labour’s worst-ever Senedd result in the immediate aftermath of the May election.

Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK historic breakthrough, Welsh Labour reduced to nine seats: the new political map of Wales
How the first election under the new voting system reshaped the Senedd.

Plaid Cymru top the poll in Gŵyr Abertawe as Reform UK and Labour also take seats
The full Gŵyr Abertawe result, where Mike Hedges held on for Welsh Labour.

Senedd 2026 After Action Report: Plaid Cymru #Wales #PlaidCymru #Senedd2026

https://stateofwales.com/2026/05/senedd-2026-after-action-report-plaid-cymru/

SENEDD: South-west Wales politicians take key roles as Rhun ap Iorwerth names his first Plaid Cymru Cabinet

Rhun ap Iorwerth has wasted no time in putting his stamp on the Welsh Government, naming a full Cabinet within hours of being confirmed as First Minister — and going with experience, with politicians from south-west Wales given some of its most significant roles.

The most senior appointment from the region is Sioned Williams, one of the six Members of the Senedd elected for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency, who has been named Deputy First Minister with responsibility for Social Justice and Equality. Williams, who served as a Plaid Cymru MS in the sixth Senedd, becomes the second most powerful figure in the Welsh Government — a remarkable rise that places a familiar face from the region at the very top of Welsh politics.

Speaking after her appointment, she said she was “humbled” to have been named Deputy First Minister. “This Government for all is committed to turning promise into immediate action for the people of Wales,” she said, pledging to focus immediately on the childcare offer and tackling child poverty.

Adam Price, who was elected in Sir Gaerfyrddin after returning to the Senedd from third on Plaid’s list, has been handed the brief for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy. The former Plaid Cymru leader, who previously served as MP and then MS for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr before stepping down as leader in 2023, returns to the frontline of Welsh politics with one of the most economically significant briefs in the Cabinet.

Cefin Campbell, who topped the poll in Sir Gaerfyrddin as Plaid’s lead candidate in Carmarthenshire, has been appointed Deputy Minister for Skills and Tertiary Education. A former MS who served in the sixth Senedd, Campbell is a well-known figure across the county — his brother Darrel, a teacher at Ysgol Dyffryn Aman in Ammanford, was among those caught up in the knife attack at the school in April 2024, an incident that shocked communities across the region.

The three appointments reflect ap Iorwerth’s clear decision to go with experience for his first Cabinet. Williams, Price and Campbell all served in the previous Senedd, giving the new administration a significant bedrock of knowledge and political credibility from day one in government.

The full Cabinet also includes Elin Jones as Cabinet Minister for Finance — a significant appointment given the questions already raised about Welsh Government funding commitments under the new administration, including the 75% funding pledge for the new Ysgol Heol Goffa in Llanelli.

Heledd Fychan has been appointed Trefnydd — the Welsh Government’s equivalent of Leader of the House, responsible for managing the government’s legislative programme and business in the Senedd — alongside her role as Cabinet Minister for Culture and Sport.

Other Cabinet appointments include Mabon ap Gwynfor for Health and Care, Anna Brychan for Education and the Welsh Language, and Siân Gwenllian for Local Government, Housing and Planning.

Ap Iorwerth said the Cabinet would have a “relentless focus on doing what’s best for Wales.” He added: “United and filled with talent and experience ready to serve, my government will believe in the art of the possible, working as one team every day to improve the lives of the people of Wales.”

Welsh Labour said it would play an active role in holding the new government to account. A spokesperson said: “We look forward to being an effective opposition, scrutinising and holding the new Welsh Government to account. We’re living in a world with much uncertainty and all governments face challenges. No one knows better than our party that it is a privilege to govern and that immense responsibility now rests on different shoulders.”

Dan Thomas MS, Leader of Reform Wales, offered a cautious welcome while stressing his party’s intention to scrutinise the government. “The people of Wales need this Cabinet to deliver,” he said. “Our NHS, our schools and our economy need urgent change, and while I may disagree with Plaid, we all need them to succeed.”

He added: “We will scrutinise their actions and work to ensure that their attention is on our public services and not Welsh independence.”

With Cabinet now in place, Wales’ first Plaid Cymru government is formally up and running — just 24 hours after ap Iorwerth was confirmed as First Minister in the Senedd on Tuesday, ending 27 years of Labour leadership of the Welsh Government.

More on the new Welsh Government

Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed as First Minister as Plaid Cymru makes history
How Wales’s first Plaid Cymru First Minister was confirmed in the Senedd.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform and Plaid take three seats each as Labour wiped out
The Carmarthenshire result that returned Adam Price and Cefin Campbell to Cardiff Bay.

Mike Hedges warns Wales could face another election next year
The challenges facing the new minority government from day one.

Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK historic breakthrough — the new political map of Wales
The full story of the election that changed Welsh politics forever.

SENEDD: Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed as First Minister as Plaid Cymru makes history after 27 years of Labour rule

Rhun ap Iorwerth has been confirmed as First Minister of Wales, ending 27 years of Labour leadership of the Welsh Government and making history as the first Plaid Cymru politician to hold the office.

The confirmation came following a vote in the first plenary session of the seventh Senedd, days after Plaid Cymru’s historic election victory last week saw the party win 43 of the 96 seats in the Senedd.

Forty-four Members of the Senedd voted to nominate ap Iorwerth as First Minister — 43 Plaid members plus the support of Wales’ two newly-elected Green MSs, who announced on Sunday they would back the Plaid leader. Reform UK’s Dan Thomas received 34 votes and Conservative leader Darren Millar seven.

Labour’s nine MSs abstained from the vote, as did the sole Liberal Democrat MS Jane Dodds — a decision that effectively settled the arithmetic in the chamber. With no other candidate able to attract more votes than all other candidates combined, ap Iorwerth’s path to the top job was secure.

In his first speech as First Minister, ap Iorwerth told the Senedd: “It is the greatest privilege of my life to be elected first minister in a nation that means so much to me. I’m eager to repay the trust that the people in Wales have placed in us and to achieve the change that people have stated so clearly they wish to see.”

He will lead a minority government, having confirmed last week that he would seek to govern without a formal coalition. With 43 seats, Plaid falls short of the 49 needed for a majority in the 96-seat chamber, meaning ap Iorwerth will need to build support from other parties on a vote-by-vote basis.

The session also confirmed Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies as the new Presiding Officer — known in Welsh as the Llywydd — with Plaid’s Kerry Ferguson elected as his deputy. The Llywydd chairs Senedd proceedings and is required to remain politically impartial. The previous holder of the role, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones, stepped down at this election.

The political landscape ap Iorwerth inherits is dramatically different to any previous Welsh Government. Reform UK came second in the election with 34 seats, Labour were reduced to just nine, the Conservatives won seven, the Greens picked up their first ever two Senedd seats and the Liberal Democrats hold one.

Born in south Wales, ap Iorwerth, 53, grew up on Anglesey and was educated at Ysgol David Hughes before studying politics and Welsh at Cardiff University. A former BBC journalist and married father of three, he entered politics in 2013 when he won a by-election in Ynys Môn.

He took over the leadership of Plaid Cymru in 2023 during a difficult period for the party, after his predecessor Adam Price resigned in the wake of a report finding there was a culture of sexual harassment, bullying and misogyny within the organisation.

Since taking over, he has steadily rebuilt the party’s fortunes — culminating in last week’s historic result. The scale of the victory exceeded most expectations, with Plaid emerging as comfortably the largest party in the Senedd for the first time.

Ap Iorwerth is a supporter of Welsh independence, and has previously said his party would use time in government to make the case for an independent Wales. However he has ruled out holding a referendum during this first term in office.

Welsh Labour’s Mike Hedges has already warned that the new Plaid minority government could face a fresh election as early as next year if it fails to pass its first budget — a significant test for the new administration in its earliest months.

Ken Skates was appointed as interim Welsh Labour leader following the resignation of Eluned Morgan, who lost her seat in the election. Labour now faces a lengthy period of reflection and rebuilding as the official opposition — with just nine seats in a 96-member chamber.

For Wales, the significance of the moment extends beyond party politics. This is the first time since the creation of the Senedd in 1999 that the Welsh Government has not been led by Labour — a shift that marks a fundamental change in the political landscape of the nation.

SENEDD ELECTION: Mike Hedges warns Wales could face another election next year as Labour count the cost of historic defeat

Mike Hedges has warned that Wales could face another Senedd election within a year, as Labour Members of the Senedd began to count the cost of their historic defeat.

The veteran MS, who held on in the new Gwyr Abertawe constituency, said that if Plaid Cymru formed a minority government and their budget fell, an election could follow — just as Labour’s budgets had faced repeated challenges from Plaid in the outgoing Senedd.

“Let’s assume that Plaid form a government — when they bring their budget forward, well, the other parties will have the same chance to do to Plaid what Plaid have done to Labour consistently over the budget,” he told reporter Will Hayward at the count. “So if the budget falls, we might have an election.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed on Saturday that he will lead a Plaid minority government, working with other parties on a case-by-case basis rather than seeking a formal coalition. Plaid won 43 seats — six short of the 49 needed for a majority — with Labour reduced to just nine seats after a catastrophic night for the party.

Speaking with what he described as “disappointment,” Hedges said the scale of the Labour collapse had shocked him, revealing that one box he had expected to win over half the votes in had seen his party come third.

He said he had been canvassing on the doorstep until the day before the election and had been told by one voter — who he said had backed him for 30 years — that the man had not voted for him this time. “He apologised for it, but I can’t count apologies in the votes,” Hedges said.

Hedges was critical of the new large constituency system introduced for the expanded Senedd, saying that if he had been running Labour’s campaign he would “not have had this system” as a starting point.

He also called for legislation — originally championed by former Plaid leader Adam Price — to prevent politicians lying at election time, suggesting it would have changed the nature of the campaign. “If we’d got that through, we’d have had a different dialogue,” he said.

First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat and resigned as Welsh Labour leader on election night, with Ken Skates confirmed as interim leader on Saturday afternoon as the party began to assess its position. The defeat brought 27 years of Labour rule in Wales to an end.

On the prospect of working with the other parties in the new Senedd, Hedges was blunt, saying he had “great difficulty” working with either Plaid Cymru or Reform UK. He said Plaid’s independence agenda would cost Wales between £12 billion and £16 billion a year — roughly equivalent to the health budget — while Reform “want to turn us into West England.”

“But we’re going to all have to work together for the benefit of the people of Wales,” he added.

Senedd Election 2026 — our coverage

Rhun ap Iorwerth to lead Plaid minority government after historic victory ends 27 years of Labour rule
What happens next as Plaid prepares to take power.

Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK make historic breakthrough — the new political map of Wales
Full results and analysis from the night that changed Welsh politics.

Ken Skates appointed interim Welsh Labour leader after historic Senedd defeat
Labour picks up the pieces after being reduced to nine seats.

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
A dramatic end to Labour’s era in government.

Gwyr Abertawe: Plaid top the poll as Reform UK and Labour also take seats
How Swansea voted — and how Mike Hedges held on.

SENEDD ELECTION: Rhun ap Iorwerth to lead Plaid minority government after historic victory ends 27 years of Labour rule

Rhun ap Iorwerth will lead a minority Plaid Cymru government after the party’s historic victory in the Senedd election brought 27 years of Labour rule to an end.

Plaid won 43 seats in the expanded Senedd — six short of the 49 needed for a majority — with Labour reduced to just nine seats after a catastrophic night for the party.

Speaking outside the Senedd in Cardiff Bay, ap Iorwerth confirmed he would not seek a formal coalition, instead working with other parties on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation and budgets, saying he had spoken with other party leaders and would focus on building stability.

He told reporters he had always believed cooperation would be necessary to “make a reliable difference to the people of Wales,” adding that Plaid would seek what was right for Wales and act with “determination, ambition, and humility.”

“Plaid Cymru is ready to form the next government of Wales,” he told jubilant supporters gathered on the Senedd steps. “We are here as representatives of all of Wales — every community from Môn to Monmouth, from Flint to Tenby, from rural Powys to our bustling cities.”

While a minority government is a first for Plaid, it is not without precedent in Cardiff Bay — Labour itself never won more than half the seats at any Senedd election during its 27 years in power, and regularly governed without a majority.

The party hopes to hold a vote to formally install ap Iorwerth as First Minister on Tuesday, though the process is not entirely straightforward. Before that vote can take place, the Senedd must hold a secret ballot to elect a new presiding officer to replace Elin Jones, who held the post for the outgoing Labour administration.

No formal list of candidates for presiding officer has been confirmed, though Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies and the Conservatives’ Paul Davies have been among those discussed.

Ken Skates, Member of the Senedd for Fflint Wrecsam, was confirmed on Saturday afternoon as interim leader of Welsh Labour as the party begins to assess its position following its dramatic collapse at the polls. First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat and resigned as Welsh Labour leader on election night.

Ap Iorwerth described the election result as “a momentous piece of Welsh history,” telling the gathered crowd it had been built on a century of belief in Wales’s future. “Throughout our nation people have put their faith in Plaid Cymru in numbers never seen before,” he said.

He said the scale of the victory would change Wales’s relationship with Westminster, adding that no UK Prime Minister would now be able to ignore Wales’s needs. “No UK government, no UK minister, now or in the future, can cast Wales aside or turn a blind eye to our needs and our aspirations as a nation,” he said.

Jubilant scenes greeted ap Iorwerth and the new Plaid Senedd members as they arrived on the Senedd steps to cheers and whistles from hundreds of supporters waving red dragon and Owain Glyndŵr flags — scenes one reporter described as more reminiscent of a returning sports team than a political party.

Among those to greet him was former Plaid leader Leanne Wood, whom he stopped to embrace before addressing the crowd.

He ended his speech by inviting all parties to join Plaid in “an alliance” to pursue the mission on behalf of Wales, pledging the new government would bring “the competence that is needed, the compassion that is needed, the hope that is needed.”

“We will do everything we can to repay the faith that people have put in us,” he said. “We will build this nation every single day.”

Senedd Election 2026 — our coverage

Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK make historic breakthrough — the new political map of Wales
Full results and analysis from the night that changed Welsh politics.

Ken Skates appointed interim Welsh Labour leader after historic Senedd defeat
Labour picks up the pieces after being reduced to nine seats.

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
A dramatic end to Labour’s era in government.

Gŵyr/Abertawe: Plaid top the poll as Reform UK and Labour also take seats
How Swansea voted in the Senedd election.

Brycheiniog, Tawe a Nedd: Reform UK tops the poll as Lib Dems hold and Labour wiped out
Results from the constituency covering the Swansea valleys.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid take three seats each as Adam Price returns
Labour wiped out in Carmarthenshire as Plaid and Reform dominate.

SENEDD ELECTION 2026: Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK historic breakthrough, Welsh Labour reduced to nine seats — the new political map of Wales

Wales has woken up to a new political landscape this evening – one in which Plaid Cymru has emerged as the largest party in the Senedd, Reform UK has secured a historic breakthrough, and Welsh Labour has been reduced to nine seats after more than a quarter of a century in power.

The Senedd Election 2026 – the first to be held under the new D’Hondt voting system and with an expanded 96-seat parliament – has reshaped Welsh politics in ways that almost nobody predicted even a year ago.

The final picture, with all 16 constituencies declared, sees Plaid Cymru take 43 seats, Reform UK 34, Welsh Labour 9, the Welsh Conservatives 7, the Greens 2 and the Welsh Liberal Democrats 1.

The most striking individual story of the day was the defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan in her Ceredigion Penfro constituency – a result that immediately triggered her resignation as Welsh Labour leader.

Morgan became the first ever serving Welsh First Minister to lose her seat at an election, and the first leader of any government in the United Kingdom to lose her seat while in office.

“I take responsibility for the Labour result in Wales,” she told the count from the stage at Ceredigion Penfro. “The age of two-party dominance is dead.”

Wales now faces an immediate Welsh Labour leadership contest and the prospect of a new First Minister – with Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, who held his Bangor Conwy Mon seat with ease, the most likely candidate to lead the next Welsh Government.

“It has become clear that Wales has demanded that change of leadership,” ap Iorwerth said after his re-election. “Plaid Cymru is ready to serve.”

The election produced a record turnout for a Senedd election – 51.65% across Wales, the first time the 50% benchmark has ever been broken at a Welsh parliamentary election.

That turnout had been forecast as a positive indicator for Reform UK, which had focused much of its campaign on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The forecast proved correct. Reform UK topped the poll in four constituencies – Casnewydd Islwyn, Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Sir Fynwy Torfaen and Clwyd – and won three seats in three more.

Welsh leader Dan Thomas, who became an MS himself after winning a seat in Casnewydd Islwyn, called Reform “the people’s army” of Welsh politics.

“In just five years, Reform has gone from winning 1% of the vote in the Senedd elections to being the main contender for government, smashing Labour in the process,” Thomas said.

For Plaid Cymru, the election represents a remarkable consolidation of support. The party topped the poll in 11 of the 16 constituencies and took three seats in nine of them – including a clean sweep of four seats in Gwynedd Maldwyn.

Among those returning to the Senedd for Plaid is former leader Adam Price, who was elected in Sir Gaerfyrddin from third place on his party’s list – itself a sign of how strongly Plaid performed in the constituency.

The constituency-by-constituency breakdown shows just how starkly the political map of Wales has been redrawn.

For Welsh Labour, the result is bleak. The party has been wiped out entirely in six constituencies – Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Ceredigion Penfro, Clwyd and Gwynedd Maldwyn – and reduced to a single seat in most others.

Welsh Labour’s nine surviving Members of the Senedd are dominated by senior figures. Cabinet members Huw Irranca-Davies (Deputy First Minister), Sarah Murphy (Deputy Minister for Mental Health and Wellbeing), Lynne Neagle and Ken Skates (Transport) all held their seats. Mike Hedges was returned in Gwyr Abertawe and Jayne Bryant in Casnewydd Islwyn.

The defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan, however, is the headline loss – and brings to an end a century-long run of Welsh Labour electoral dominance dating back to 1922.

Welsh Labour’s collapse was particularly stark across south-west Wales. The party was wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, reduced to one seat in Gwyr Abertawe and Afan Ogwr Rhondda, and lost its First Minister in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro.

Speaking after Mike Hedges’ re-election as the only Welsh Labour MS for Swansea, Council leader Rob Stewart – who was Labour’s number two on the Gwyr Abertawe list and was not elected – acknowledged the difficulty of the result.

“Obviously, this is not the result we worked for,” Stewart said. “Nationally, it has been a really difficult night for Welsh Labour and UK Labour.”

Stewart said the threat of Reform UK had loomed over the campaign. “Clearly the threat of Reform has been at the forefront of many voters’ minds, and we heard on the door that when people could not give us their vote this time, they didn’t want to go to Reform and have clearly opted for Plaid Cymru,” he said.

The Welsh Conservatives have ended the day with seven seats – a smaller party than at the last Senedd, but with three of their leaders past and present returned. Andrew RT Davies, the former Welsh Conservative leader, was re-elected in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg. Current leader Darren Millar held his seat in Clwyd. And former Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Paul Davies returned to the Senedd via Ceredigion Penfro.

Conservative Senedd colleague Samuel Kurtz failed to be re-elected.

The Greens secured two seats in Wales for the first time – both in Cardiff. Anthony Slaughter, the party’s Welsh leader, took his seat in Caerdydd Penarth and called it a “historic breakthrough” for the Greens in Wales.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats secured a single seat – that of leader Jane Dodds, who held on in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. The party had hoped for a stronger result but its presence in the Senedd is preserved.

What now follows is coalition politics on a scale Wales has not seen since devolution began.

With 49 seats needed for an overall majority, Plaid Cymru is eight short of governing alone. Polling expert Sir John Curtice had projected the party would win between 41 and 46 seats – the final figure of 41 sits at the lower end of that projection.

The arithmetic of the new Senedd makes a Plaid Cymru-led coalition almost certain – but the question is who Plaid will choose to govern with.

A formal coalition with Welsh Labour would deliver a stable majority of 50 seats – though the politics of bringing the heavily defeated party of government into a new coalition would be difficult.

A confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Welsh Lib Dems and Greens would still leave Plaid three seats short of a majority, requiring further support from other parties.

A coalition with Reform UK would command a vast majority of 75 seats – but is politically inconceivable, with Reform’s positions on devolution and Welsh public services fundamentally at odds with Plaid’s.

The most likely outcome, observers suggest, is a Plaid-led minority government supported on a confidence-and-supply basis by smaller parties – or a formal coalition with Welsh Labour rebuilding from the wreckage of today’s result.

Either way, the next First Minister of Wales is very likely to be Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth – a fundamental shift in Welsh political leadership for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

The election also marks Wales’ political landscape becoming significantly more fragmented. The new Senedd has six different parties represented – up from four after the 2021 election – reflecting both the new electoral system and the political reorientation that has taken place.

Welsh political expert Professor Laura McAllister told BBC Wales that Eluned Morgan had been dealt an impossible hand. “The odds were stacked so hard against her, she didn’t get an ounce of help from her UK party, or the Prime Minister,” she said.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer paid tribute to Morgan in a statement issued shortly after her defeat, calling her “a formidable First Minister and tireless champion for Wales” – though earlier in the day senior Welsh Labour figures had called for him to consider his own position over the scale of the party’s Welsh defeat.

The new Senedd will sit for the first time in the coming weeks, when its 96 Members of the Senedd will be sworn in and the process of forming the next Welsh Government will formally begin.

For now, however, the picture is clear. Wales has rejected its long-time governing party, embraced a populist insurgency, and elevated a nationalist alternative to the largest party in its parliament for the first time in history.

The age of two-party dominance, as Eluned Morgan said in her resignation speech, is dead. What replaces it begins now.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems
Reform UK takes three seats in the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and Neath – with Welsh Labour wiped out entirely.

Gwyr Abertawe: Plaid Cymru top the poll as Mike Hedges holds for Welsh Labour
The Swansea result and Council leader Rob Stewart’s reaction to a difficult day for the city’s Welsh Labour group.

GWYR ABERTAWE: Plaid Cymru top the poll as Reform UK and Labour also take seats — Mike Hedges holds for Welsh Labour

Plaid Cymru has topped the poll in Gwyr Abertawe – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in a result that confirms the political shift now sweeping across south Wales.

Reform UK took two seats and Welsh Labour took the remaining seat – with veteran Swansea politician Mike Hedges holding on as the city’s only Labour Member of the Senedd.

The result was declared this evening at the Gwyr Abertawe count by Returning Officer Martin Nicholls.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 25,076 votes, ahead of Reform UK on 21,641. Welsh Labour received 11,195 votes – a fraction of its previous performance in Swansea.

The Welsh Conservatives received 7,523 votes, the Wales Green Party 6,383 and the Welsh Liberal Democrats 6,262. None won a seat in the constituency.

The six new Members of the Senedd for Gwyr Abertawe are:

• Gwyn Williams (Plaid Cymru)
• Francesca O’Brien (Reform UK)
• Safa Elhassan (Plaid Cymru)
• Mike Hedges (Welsh Labour)
• Steven Rodaway (Reform UK)
• John Davies (Plaid Cymru)

Mike Hedges’ re-election ensures Welsh Labour retains a presence in Swansea – but represents a significant reduction for a party that has long counted the city among its strongholds.

Hedges was Labour’s first-placed candidate in Gwyr Abertawe. Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who was Labour’s second-placed candidate, was not elected.

The result also marks the election of Reform UK’s first ever Members of the Senedd for Swansea – with Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway both elected.

O’Brien had earlier today predicted on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast that Welsh Labour would collapse, describing the election as a referendum on First Minister Eluned Morgan and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Plaid Cymru’s three new MS – Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies – represent a significant breakthrough for the party in a constituency where it has not historically been the dominant force.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 50.9% – just below the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.

The Gwyr Abertawe electorate stands at 155,120, with 78,924 ballot papers issued. A total of 187 ballot papers were rejected and not counted.

In response to the result, Council leader Rob Stewart praised Hedges and said he was looking forward to him continuing to work for Swansea at Cardiff Bay.

“I want to thank everyone who voted for our Labour team in Gwyr Abertawe today,” Stewart said. “I am looking forward to Mike Hedges returning to the Senedd and continuing to work extremely hard for Swansea, as he has done since 2011.”

Stewart acknowledged the difficulty of the result. “Obviously, this is not the result we worked for,” he said. “Nationally, it has been a really difficult night for Welsh Labour and UK Labour.”

He paid tribute to Welsh Labour’s record in government. “I’m proud of what the Labour Welsh Governments have delivered for Wales over many years,” he said.

Stewart said the threat of Reform UK had been a major factor on the doorstep. “Clearly the threat of Reform has been at the forefront of many voters’ minds, and we heard on the door that when people could not give us their vote this time, they didn’t want to go to Reform and have clearly opted for Plaid Cymru,” he said.

He added that he had not detected significant enthusiasm for Plaid’s vision. “While I understand the voters’ logic, I haven’t detected any great love for Plaid’s vision for Wales,” Stewart said. “However, they appear to have done well, and we will respect that.”

Stewart said Welsh Labour had to listen carefully to voters. “We must also be prepared to reflect carefully and listen with humility to the people,” he said. “There must be no dodging, no deflection, just determination to put things right and redouble our efforts to deliver at all levels on the things we promised.”

The Council leader said his focus would now be on local delivery. “Here in Swansea, my work continues and will increase in pace,” he said. “The work Swansea Labour has been doing resonated with voters on the door, and clearly we will be standing on our record of delivery at next year’s elections.”

He pointed to investment in the city as the foundation for that record. “We’ll stand on the billion-pound investment in Swansea, the new homes, new schools, better jobs and opportunities, and our drive to keep building a better Swansea together,” he said.

Stewart said he would continue as Council leader. “As Leader of this great city, I will keep doing all I can to improve people’s lives and lead the delivery of that better Swansea,” he said.

He thanked party members and supporters. “My sincere and heartfelt thanks go to the volunteers, activists, members and supporters who gave everything to this campaign,” he said.

And he paid tribute to Eluned Morgan, who lost her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro this afternoon and resigned as Welsh Labour leader. “Special thanks also go to Eluned Morgan, who has led Welsh Labour with distinction, empathy and heart through a genuinely difficult time,” Stewart said.

Stewart also paid tribute to Rebecca Evans and Julie James, who stepped down at this election after long service in the Senedd. “I also want to wish Rebecca Evans and Julie James well in whatever they do next,” he said. “They have stepped down from the Senedd after long and distinguished service to Gower and Swansea West.”

The Gwyr Abertawe result follows a similar pattern to other south Wales constituencies declared earlier today – with Welsh Labour reduced to a single seat or wiped out entirely in the face of a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge.

Across Wales, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.

That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.

Two constituencies remain to declare this evening – Gwynedd Maldwyn and Fflint Wrecsam.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems
Reform UK takes three seats in the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and Neath – with Welsh Labour wiped out entirely.

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting got under way across Wales.

What does a Welsh defeat mean for Keir Starmer?
Senior Welsh Labour figures have called for the prime minister to consider his position if the result is as bad as predicted.

BRYCHEINIOG TAWE NEDD: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems — Welsh Labour wiped out

Reform UK has topped the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in another major breakthrough result for Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru took two seats in the constituency, with Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holding on to take the sixth and final seat for her party.

Welsh Labour was wiped out entirely – failing to win a single seat in a constituency that covers the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and parts of Neath Port Talbot.

It is the second south-west Wales constituency in which Welsh Labour has been completely shut out today, following a similar wipe-out in Sir Gaerfyrddin earlier this afternoon.

The result is significant on several fronts.

For Reform UK, topping the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd marks the second south Wales constituency in which the party has come first – following its win in Casnewydd Islwyn earlier in the day. The party also won three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin and three in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

For Plaid Cymru, two seats in a rural constituency where the party has historically performed strongly is a respectable but slightly disappointing return – particularly given how strongly the party has done elsewhere in Wales today.

And for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds holding on is a significant moment.

Dodds was the only Liberal Democrat MS in the previous Senedd, and her re-election ensures her party retains its presence at Cardiff Bay.

It is also the Welsh Lib Dems’ first confirmed seat of the day – giving the party a foothold in the new 96-seat Senedd that it has secured against difficult conditions for smaller parties under the new D’Hondt voting system.

Dodds had said during the campaign that she hoped her party would return a larger group than the single seat it secured in 2021.

For Welsh Labour, the result adds to a deeply difficult day. The party has now been wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – and reduced to a single seat in several other constituencies.

The result comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her own seat in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro and resigned as Welsh Labour leader.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and varied constituency stretching from the upper Swansea Valley up through Powys and across into rural Neath Port Talbot – taking in Ystradgynlais, Pontardawe, Brecon and the surrounding areas.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 52.98% – above the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The new Members of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will now take their seats when the seventh Senedd meets for the first time in the coming weeks.

Across Wales as a whole, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.

That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.

Attention now turns to Gwyr Abertawe – the Swansea constituency where the count is still under way, with declarations expected later this evening.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting got under way across Wales.

What does a Welsh defeat mean for Keir Starmer?
Senior Welsh Labour figures have called for the prime minister to consider his position if the result is as bad as predicted.

SIR GAERFYRDDIN: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out — Adam Price returns to the Senedd

Reform UK and Plaid Cymru have taken three Sir Gaerfyrddin seats each in a knife-edge result that ends Welsh Labour’s representation in Carmarthenshire entirely.

The result, declared this afternoon at the Carmarthenshire count, marks Reform UK’s first ever Senedd breakthrough in west Wales – and represents an historic collapse for Welsh Labour in a region it has long counted among its strongholds.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 36,160 votes, ahead of Reform UK on 27,542. Welsh Labour received 6,458 votes – a fraction of its previous performance in the area.

Plaid Cymru’s Cefin Campbell topped the poll, taking the first seat. Reform UK’s Gareth Beer took the second – becoming the first Reform UK Member of the Senedd ever elected in west Wales.

Plaid’s Nerys Evans took the third seat, with Reform’s Carmelo Colasanto taking the fourth.

The fifth seat went to Adam Price – the former Plaid Cymru leader and former MS for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr – marking his return to the Senedd.

The sixth and final seat went to Reform UK’s Sarah Edwards, after going to a recount with the margin understood to be around 140 votes.

Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives and other parties failed to secure a single seat in the constituency.

The six new Sir Gaerfyrddin Members of the Senedd will be:

• Cefin Campbell (Plaid Cymru)
• Gareth Beer (Reform UK)
• Nerys Evans (Plaid Cymru)
• Carmelo Colasanto (Reform UK)
• Adam Price (Plaid Cymru)
• Sarah Edwards (Reform UK)

Adam Price’s return to the Senedd is one of the most significant individual stories of the day. The veteran Plaid politician, who previously served as MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr before becoming MS for the same area, stepped down as Plaid Cymru leader in 2023.

His return – via Plaid’s Sir Gaerfyrddin list – gives Plaid Cymru one of its most experienced political operators back at Cardiff Bay. Price had originally been selected third on Plaid’s list, meaning his election demonstrates just how strongly the party performed in the constituency.

The result is a significant moment for Reform UK in Wales. The party had targeted Sir Gaerfyrddin as a key constituency, with Welsh leader Dan Thomas visiting Llanelli during the campaign to push for what he described as a major breakthrough in west Wales.

That breakthrough has now been delivered.

For Plaid Cymru, the result represents both consolidation and concern – three seats in one of its traditional strongholds is a strong return, but the party will have hoped to push for four against a Labour vote that had collapsed.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 55.97% – significantly higher than the 47.8% recorded in Casnewydd Islwyn and the 47.7% in Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni, both of which declared earlier in the day.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The pattern in Sir Gaerfyrddin echoes the result earlier this afternoon in Casnewydd Islwyn – where Reform UK and Plaid Cymru also took two seats each, with Labour reduced to a single seat and the Welsh Conservatives picking up the sixth.

It also echoes Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, where Plaid topped the poll ahead of Reform but the same six-seat split of two Reform, two Plaid, one Labour and one Conservative was returned.

Across the south Wales results so far, Welsh Labour’s collapse from its previous position of dominance is unmistakable.

Sir Gaerfyrddin is the third constituency to declare today, with attention now turning to Gwyr Abertawe – where the count is expected to conclude shortly.

Other constituencies in our area are also expected to declare in the coming hours, including Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Ceredigion Penfro and Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

Reform UK leader Dan Thomas, who became an MS himself earlier today after winning a seat in Casnewydd Islwyn, said in his victory speech that “the Welsh Valleys have been ignored, let down and forgotten by the old parties of Wales” – a message that now appears to be resonating across rural and post-industrial Wales alike.

The Sir Gaerfyrddin declaration ends an era in Carmarthenshire politics – with the constituency returning no Labour MS to the Senedd for the first time since the institution was established in 1999.

The full picture of how the new 96-seat Senedd will look should become clear over the coming hours, with the latest declaration of the day expected from Fflint Wrecsam at around 5.30pm.

SENEDD ELECTION: Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins — and Eluned Morgan’s own seat hangs in the balance

Welsh Labour is bracing for a historic defeat as counting begins across Wales this morning – with senior party sources reportedly acknowledging for the first time that the party will lose power today.

Counting in the 2026 Senedd election will get underway from 9.30am at Neath Port Talbot Council and 10am in Swansea, with the first declarations expected from 2pm.

If the result matches pre-election polling and overnight expectations, today will mark the end of an unbroken Welsh Labour winning streak that goes back more than 100 years.

The party has been the largest in every major Welsh election – Westminster and Senedd – since 1922. It has been in power in Wales, either alone or in coalition, since the Senedd was first established in 1999.

Senior Labour sources, who had previously refused to accept that pre-election polls were accurate, were last night reportedly acknowledging that the party will lose power in Wales today.

Labour insiders are also said to believe it is on a knife edge as to whether First Minister Eluned Morgan will keep her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro.

If Morgan loses, the party will face an immediate scramble to appoint a new leader of Welsh Labour in the Senedd – even on an interim basis.

That decision could come within hours of the result.

Welsh Labour campaign chair Huw Irranca-Davies issued a statement at the close of polls last night acknowledging the difficulty of the campaign.

“We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances,” he said.

“After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration. The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply.”

He said the party would reflect on the result with humility. “There were many tough messages heard on the doorstep. And in the days ahead, we will reflect carefully and listen with humility to what voters are telling us. There will be no dodging. No deflection. Just determination to put things right.”

He paid tribute to Eluned Morgan’s leadership during what he described as one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced.

“Throughout this campaign, Eluned Morgan has shown positive, energetic, and determined leadership in very difficult times,” he said. “She took on the challenge during one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced, leading with resilience, warmth, and focus.”

Plaid Cymru – projected by the final YouGov MRP to become the largest party in the new Senedd – struck a more measured tone in its overnight statement.

A spokesperson said the party was looking forward to the results with humility and with hope.

“Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change,” they said. “People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives.”

The spokesperson said voters had been inspired by leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. “People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK’s chaos and division,” they said.

The Plaid statement reflects the central political dynamic of this election – a tight battle between Plaid and Reform UK, both projected by the final pre-election polls to make significant gains at Welsh Labour’s expense.

Reform UK’s momentum was further underlined overnight by results from local elections in England.

Reform won more than 300 council seats across English local authorities in voting that took place yesterday – a strong performance that will boost the party’s confidence going into today’s Senedd count.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost more than 100 seats in those English elections – adding to a difficult electoral picture for the official UK opposition.

In Wales, two early constituency turnout figures have been confirmed – both showing turnout in the high 40s.

Casnewydd Islwyn recorded a turnout of 47.8% according to returning officer Beverly Owen, while neighbouring Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni recorded 47.7%.

Turnout will be a key figure to watch as the day unfolds. A higher than expected turnout is generally seen as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its campaign on mobilising voters who have not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

Final turnout figures across all 16 Welsh constituencies will be confirmed as counts get underway throughout the morning.

The Electoral Commission’s chief executive Vijay Rangarajan praised the running of yesterday’s polls.

“Polling station staff dealt with any issues swiftly without disruption to the poll. Millions of people were able to cast their votes, and people had access to clear, reliable information about how to take part,” he said.

He said the Commission had not seen significant deepfakes affecting the elections, but would gather evidence from voters, candidates and others to inform a full assessment to be published in the autumn.

The first Senedd declarations are expected from 2pm, with Casnewydd Islwyn, Gwyr Abertawe and Sir Fynwy Torfaen the earliest in the country.

Sir Gaerfyrddin and Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr are expected to declare around 4pm, with the latest declaration expected from Fflint Wrecsam at 5.30pm.

A complete picture of the new Senedd should therefore be clear by early evening – at which point the focus will turn to coalition negotiations and the make-up of Wales’ next government.

Swansea Bay News will be reporting live from the Sir Gaerfyrddin count throughout the day, with updates from across south-west Wales as results come in.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

Polls have closed – here’s what happens next, and how the new D’Hondt voting system works
Our complete guide to the count, the D’Hondt formula, and when results will land.

Voting today? Everything you need to know about the new system
The polling-day reader service guide that helped voters navigate the new system.

Your new MS will earn £79,817 – and the First Minister’s salary tops £174,000
What Wales’ new Senedd Members will be paid when they take their seats.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters didn’t understand the new voting system
The polling that revealed mass confusion just days before the vote.

Reform UK announces detention centres plan three days before polls open
The Reform UK announcement that dominated the final days of the campaign.

Two Debenhams buildings, two very different outcomes – Senedd candidates question council priorities
The Carmarthen story that became a flashpoint for local Senedd candidates.

Reform UK Wales leader visits Llanelli as party targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats
Reform’s late campaign push in our patch with Dan Thomas in Llanelli.

I look very serious here, but maybe that's because it's a serious day?

I voted for who I felt had the best interests of Wales at heart, based on evidence not propaganda, optimism not anger.

I chose hope over division today.

Whether you voted the exact same way as I did or not, I hope you chose hope over division too. Most of us have a desire for a better Wales in common.

@plaidcymru

#BrycheiniogTaweNedd #PlaidCymru #Senedd2026

And here it is, in real teletext, on a real CRT TV.

@plaidcymru

#BrycheiniogTaweNedd #PlaidCymru #Senedd2026 #Teletext #TeletextArt

How could I have missed this opportunity, until now, to show my support in the most "me" way possible?!

The party I'll be voting for in tomorrow's Senedd elections, as teletext art.

@plaidcymru

#BrycheiniogTaweNedd #PlaidCymru #Senedd2026 #Teletext #TeletextArt

SENEDD ELECTION: Your new MS will earn £79,817 a year — and the First Minister’s salary tops £174,000

Whoever wins a seat in Thursday’s Senedd election will pick up a salary of £79,817 in their first year – a rise of more than £3,000 on the current rate, and more than £12,000 higher than it was in 2021.

The figure has been confirmed by the Independent Remuneration Board of the Senedd, which sets pay for Members independently of the Senedd itself.

The 4.5% increase for 2026/27 – worth around £3,400 – is linked to annual changes in average Welsh earnings as published by the Office for National Statistics each November.

It means Senedd Members will earn nearly £80,000 a year from the moment they take their seats after Thursday’s election.

Those who take on additional roles will earn more on top of that base salary.

The biggest earner in the new Senedd will be whoever becomes First Minister.

The First Minister receives an additional salary of £94,783 on top of the base – taking their total pay to £174,600 for the seventh Senedd term.

That’s an increase of more than £25,000 in the First Minister’s total package since 2020/21.

The Llywydd – the Presiding Officer of the Senedd – will receive an additional £51,132 on top of the base salary, bringing their total to £130,949.

Government ministers, deputy ministers, committee chairs, group leaders and others who hold additional roles will also receive top-up salaries reflecting their additional responsibilities.

One rule applies across the board – a Member who holds more than one additional office will only receive one additional salary, and it will be the highest of those roles.

Dr Elizabeth Haywood, chair of the Independent Remuneration Board, said Members played a vital role in Welsh democracy. “We provide staffing and business costs so they are able to do their job in holding the government to account, making Welsh laws, agreeing Welsh taxes and engaging with and representing their constituents,” she said.

She said the board’s decisions sought to maintain accountability and represent value for money. “Set in the context of the wider financial circumstances of Wales,” she added.

The board published its full determination on Members’ pay, staffing and business support for 2026/27 on its website at remunerationboard.wales.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm, with the count and results expected on Friday.

Our Senedd election coverage

First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales
The final YouGov MRP projection – and what it means for every constituency across south-west Wales.

Labour suffers dramatic collapse in new Wales poll – here’s what it means for your constituency
The More in Common poll that showed Labour at just 16%.

Plaid on course to make history – but here’s who’s set to represent YOU on 7 May
Seat-by-seat projections for every constituency across south-west Wales.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters don’t understand the new voting system
Everything you need to know about how the new closed-list proportional system works.

#WelshElections #Senedd2026, I’ll provide #media coverage on #Basque #radio. After #WelshLabour dominance, Wales may be entering a structural political transition: #PlaidCymru or #ReformUK are neck-and-neck.

#UKpolitics #UK #Wales

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2024.2311099

SENEDD ELECTION: First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales

The First Minister of Wales is on course to lose her seat at Thursday’s Senedd election, according to the final major poll of the campaign – capping what would be the worst result in Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of devolved and Westminster politics in Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, published on Tuesday evening, projects Plaid Cymru taking four of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro – the new constituency where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate. Reform UK take the remaining two. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all return zero MSs from Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the projection.

Across south-west Wales as a whole, the picture is similarly stark for Welsh Labour. Of the 36 Senedd seats spread across the six new constituencies covering Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, the Rhondda, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour is projected to win just four.

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Plaid Cymru is projected to take three seats, Reform UK two and Labour one. Plaid lead candidates Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies would be elected, alongside Reform’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway. Long-serving Swansea East Senedd Member Mike Hedges, who tops the Labour list, would be returned – but Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, ranked second, would not, leaving him to continue as council leader.

The picture is bleaker for Labour in Sir Gaerfyrddin. ITV Wales’ constituency analysis projects Plaid Cymru on 42% and Reform UK on 33%, with each party taking three seats. Plaid’s Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and former party leader Adam Price would all be elected. Labour’s Calum Higgins, who narrowly held the sixth seat in last month’s MRP, is wiped out – meaning the whole of Carmarthenshire returns no Labour Senedd Member for the first time since devolution.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, covering Neath, Swansea East, the Swansea Valley and south Powys, the seats split four ways: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holds her seat – the only Lib Dem MS projected anywhere in Wales. Plaid’s Sioned Williams would also return, while Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha would take the single Labour seat.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Reform UK is projected to win three seats – its strongest projected performance anywhere in south-west Wales. Plaid take two and Labour one. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who tops the Labour list, would survive – but sitting Labour MSs Buffy Williams (Rhondda) and David Rees (Aberavon, currently the Senedd’s Deputy Presiding Officer), would both lose their seats.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, the seats split between Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1 and Conservative 1. Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, who heads his party’s list, would return to the Senedd.

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones leads the list and would return to the Senedd alongside three other Plaid candidates. First Minister Eluned Morgan, Labour’s lead candidate in the constituency, is projected to lose her seat.

Nationally, the YouGov MRP puts Plaid Cymru on 33% (up four points from the previous YouGov poll), Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Plaid would be six seats short of the 49 needed for an overall majority in the 96-member Senedd. The arithmetic of forming a government becomes the central question after Thursday. Every viable combination to reach 49 seats requires Labour’s involvement – either in formal coalition or by abstaining on a confidence vote.

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, who carried out the seat modelling, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was now “fairly clear” but that small swings could still produce significantly different totals. “Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33 percent with Reform on 29,” he said. “Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.”

The poll also asked respondents what was the single biggest factor influencing their vote. “Stopping Reform” was the top answer at 14%, followed by immigration at 10% – despite immigration being a matter reserved to Westminster rather than devolved to the Senedd. The motivation to stop Reform skewed sharply towards younger voters, with 27% of 16-to-24-year-olds citing it compared to just 6% of those aged 65 and over.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm. It is the first Senedd election to be held under the new closed-list proportional representation system, with each of the 16 new constituencies returning six Senedd Members.

PEMBROKESHIRE: Game of Thrones star urges voters to back Plaid or Greens to block DARC radar — as planning application opens for public objections

A Game of Thrones star who lives on the Pembrokeshire coast has urged voters to back Plaid Cymru or the Green Party on Thursday – saying the Senedd election could be the best chance to block a controversial US military radar project from being built on the Pembrokeshire coastline.

Jerome Flynn – best known for his roles in Soldier Soldier, Robson and Jerome and as Bronn in Game of Thrones – posted a video to social media on Tuesday calling the election “probably the most crucial vote we’ve made in 25 years.”

Flynn lives within a few miles of Cawdor Barracks in Pembrokeshire, where the US military’s Deep Space Advanced Radar Concept – known as DARC – has been proposed.

The Ministry of Defence submitted a planning application to Pembrokeshire County Council earlier in April for 27 radar dishes on the site.

The application is currently in its publicity phase and open for public objections until 20 May.

In his video, Flynn described DARC as “the most unspeakably abominable planning application led by the US military, backed by Donald Trump to place 27 radar dishes right on the edge of our beloved coastal national park.”

He said the election was crucial because whoever forms the next Welsh Government will have the power to “call in” the planning application – a mechanism that applies to planning applications of national significance, giving the Welsh Government the power to override Pembrokeshire County Council and take responsibility for the decision itself.

Flynn said only two parties had made firm commitments to oppose DARC. “It’s not a done deal because Plaid Cymru and the Greens have both made party-led decisions to say no to Westminster,” he said. “We’re not having such a thing on our beloved coast.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan earlier called for a pause to the DARC project while Donald Trump remains in the White House, but stopped short of calling for the project to be abandoned entirely.

The PARC Against DARC campaign – which was set up in 2024 to oppose the radar – said it had delivered 22,000 leaflets across Pembrokeshire in recent weeks. Campaigners argue that Morgan’s position does not go far enough, and that only Plaid Cymru and the Greens have made a full party-level commitment to stop the project.

The campaign is also directing residents to submit objections to the planning application before the 20 May deadline, using a one-click tool at parcagainstdarc.com.

The planning application was lodged earlier in April and has already drawn significant public attention, with campaigners arguing the project would make Pembrokeshire a priority military target and give the US military the ability to track space assets from Welsh soil.

Flynn – who is known for speaking out on environmental and ecological issues and has previously backed the campaign to devolve the Crown Estate in Wales – described St Davids as “the spiritual home of Wales” in his video.

He concluded with a direct appeal to voters. “Vote with your heart because we can make a difference here – we could put in a government that cares about our land, our people and our environment,” he said.

The Senedd election takes place on Thursday 7 May. The count and results are expected on Friday 8 May.

Anyone wishing to submit an objection to the DARC planning application can do so at parcagainstdarc.com/planning before 20 May.

Our DARC coverage

Planning application lodged for 27 giant radar dishes at Brawdy
Our report on the MOD submitting a planning application to Pembrokeshire County Council.

Welsh First Minister calls for halt to Pembrokeshire space radar project
Eluned Morgan’s intervention calling for a pause to DARC while Trump leads the US.

SENEDD ELECTION: Labour suffers dramatic collapse in new Wales poll — here’s what it means for your constituency

Welsh Labour has suffered its worst polling result yet with just three days to go until Thursday’s Senedd election – with a new survey putting the party on just 16% of the vote and projecting its most humiliating result since devolution began.

The poll, by More in Common, puts Plaid Cymru ahead on 30% with Reform UK close behind on 27%. Labour trails in third on 16%, with the Conservatives on 12%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats on 4%.

The significance of the More in Common poll is that it has consistently been the most favourable for Labour of all the polling firms covering the Senedd election. Previous polls had already shown a knife-edge race between Plaid and Reform – but Labour had been holding on to the More in Common numbers as a relative comfort. That comfort has now gone.

Translated into seats under the new proportional system, the poll projects Plaid Cymru and Reform UK level on 34 seats each, with Labour on 14 – down ten from the last projection – the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The new Senedd has 96 seats, meaning a majority requires 49. Under these projections, no single party or obvious coalition can reach that threshold.

One of the most striking individual findings is the projection for First Minister Eluned Morgan’s own seat in Ceredigion Penfro. Under the previous More in Common MRP, Morgan was narrowly projected to hold on as Labour’s sole representative in the constituency. With Labour now down a further five points nationally, that margin is under even greater pressure. Analysts caution that local projections carry significant uncertainty – but the direction of travel is clear.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said the race had tightened significantly. “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened. Plaid Cymru now leads on vote share, but in terms of seats it all looks set to come down to the sixth seat in each constituency which will likely be decided by handfuls of votes,” he said.

The poll also underlines how the new closed list system benefits the larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. Plaid and Reform are each projected to win around 35% of seats despite winning 30% and 27% of the vote respectively, while the Liberal Democrats on 4% are projected to win no seats at all nationally. Two-thirds of Welsh voters still don’t understand how the new system works, according to research published at the weekend.

The new More in Common poll has not yet published full constituency-level breakdowns. The projections below are based on the April More in Common MRP model, adjusted in light of the new national figures – particularly Labour’s further five-point fall. They should be read as indicative rather than definitive.

In Sir Gaerfyrddin – covering the whole of Carmarthenshire – Plaid Cymru are dominant, polling at around 37%. Under the April MRP, Plaid were projected to take three seats – Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and Adam Price – with Reform UK’s Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto taking two. Labour’s Calum Higgins held the sixth seat by a narrow margin. With Labour down further nationally, that sixth seat is now under serious threat.

In Gŵyr Abertawe – covering Swansea – the April MRP projected a dead heat, with Reform UK’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway, Plaid Cymru’s Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, and Labour’s Mike Hedges and Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart each winning two seats. Labour’s national collapse makes both of those Labour seats harder to hold under the new figures.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – covering Neath Port Talbot and the Brecon area – the April MRP projected the most fragmented result of any constituency in south-west Wales, with one seat each for six different parties: Reform UK’s James Evans and Iain McIntosh; Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha; Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams; the Liberal Democrats’ Jane Dodds; and Conservative Tyler John Chambers. With Labour on 16% nationally, Dr Basha’s seat is the most exposed of the six.

In Ceredigion Penfro – covering Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion – Plaid Cymru dominate on around 38%. The April MRP projected Elin Jones, Kerry Ferguson and Anna Nicholl taking three seats for Plaid, with Reform UK’s Susan Claire Archibald taking one and Conservative Paul Windsor Davies another. First Minister Eluned Morgan was projected to narrowly hold the sixth seat for Labour – but that projection is now in serious doubt given Labour’s further national decline.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg – covering Bridgend – the April MRP projected a three-way tie with two seats each for Reform UK’s Sarah Cooper-Lesadd and Gareth Thomas, Plaid Cymru’s Mark Hooper and Sarah Rees, and Labour’s Sarah Murphy and Huw John David. Labour’s second seat here is under pressure under the new polling figures.

A second major poll from YouGov is expected on Tuesday – which will give a further picture of where Wales stands heading into polling day on Thursday. We will bring you the full breakdown as soon as it is published.

Our Senedd election coverage

Plaid on course to make history — but here’s who’s set to represent YOU on 7 May
Seat-by-seat projections for every constituency across south-west Wales under the new system.

Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major polls show Wales heading for historic result
The polling picture before the More in Common survey.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters don’t understand the new voting system
New research from Aberystwyth and Swansea universities on voter knowledge ahead of Thursday.

Reform UK targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats with nine days to go
How the campaign has been playing out across south-west Wales.

#MartinRowson on the #Caerphilly #byelection – cartoon | Martin Rowson | The Guardian

Just a reminder, #StGeorge wasn’t even English. #Farage would have happily had him deported given that he was a #Palestinian #Turk.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2025/oct/24/martin-rowson-on-the-caerphilly-byelection-cartoon

#UK #Wales #Politics #Satire #EnglishNationalism #Nationalism #PlaidCymru