#psephology — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #psephology, aggregated by home.social.
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THREAD about #electoralHistory: #HannahSpencer's #GortonAndDenton #byelection win is the first by-election gain by #GreenParty #GPEW or its predecessors going back 51 years.
Hannah Spencer's win is also the 13th time since 1900 that a party has first gained a #HouseOfCommons seat at a Westminster by-election: This thread is about those 13 by-elections.
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Slovenia referendum rejects contested assisted dying law | News https://www.byteseu.com/1567702/ #accountability #afp #AssistedSuicide #CultureOfLife #Democracy #Elections #Government #GroupDecisionMaking #justice #LAW #PoliticalEvents #Politics #psephology #Referendum #RightToDie. #Slovenia #TerminalIllness #voting
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How to represent elections visually is a question with several reasonable and many unreasonable answers.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/01/upshot/many-ways-to-map-election-results.html
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I should be packed and on my way to #GothsOnAField right now, but my brain wouldn't let me go until I wrote some code.
This is the start of a piece of work to demonstrate visually the value of preferential voting systems such as #AV over #FPTP. There will be a companion piece to demonstrate the value of #PR systems.
https://codeberg.org/diffrentcolours/whyprefvote
The long term goal is an actual grassroots movement for #VotingReform in the UK, separate from political parties.
But for now I've written enough that I can go hang out in a barn and watch #Goth #LiveMusic for a weekend.
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A pair of cartograms from the 1906 UK General Election. Seen framed on the wall of Bromley House Library.
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A pair of cartograms from the 1906 UK General Election. Seen framed on the wall of Bromley House Library.
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A pair of cartograms from the 1906 UK General Election. Seen framed on the wall of Bromley House Library.
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A pair of cartograms from the 1906 UK General Election. Seen framed on the wall of Bromley House Library.
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A pair of cartograms from the 1906 UK General Election. Seen framed on the wall of Bromley House Library.
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Germany’s mind-bending electoral maths.
The more parties qualify for parliament, the harder for Friedrich Merz to form a coalition. The Bundestag that emerges could have anything between four and seven parties. The higher that number, the fewer seats for the larger parties and the trickier the coalition options for the CDU/CSU.
Mr Merz will be watching the results for the small parties as closely as his own.
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Unfun Fact: Pennsylvania is one of several states which does no processing of its ballots whatsoever until Election Day itself
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It's only a series of non-events until the county clerks get in on the action.
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It's only a series of non-events until the county clerks get in on the action.
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It's only a series of non-events until the county clerks get in on the action.
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It's only a series of non-events until the county clerks get in on the action.
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Drilling into the spooky action at a distance of the Electoral College, what happens administratively if the votes don't come in from one or more (swing) states?
There are 538 electors who convene on their various campuses the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday of December.
This campaign cycle that's December 17th.
This campaign cycle that's seven choke points. Or if you'd like, seven single points of failure.
Plenty of room and time to gum up the works at the state level.
Sequester the electors.
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@hacks4pancakes
I'm looking at Pennsylvania in particular, and it's one of those states,where the ballots aren't processed whatsoever until Election Day. And I don't mean counting the votes, I mean basic tabulation, filing, logistics, etc.(The others are Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Utah.)
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And in the great swing state of Idaho, where we swing ever further right, an interesting poll on Proposition 1. Neck and neck!
https://idahodispatch.com/zoldak-idaho-dispatch-poll-prop-1-down-5-8-with-large-shifts-possible/
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The fact that Pennsylvania, of all states, doesn't even begin to process its absentee ballots until Election Day (tabulation and gross counting, not even the counting of votes) had me wondering which states actually deal with all that paper beforehand in some measure.
Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Utah!
The source I leave as an exercise for the reader...
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Count the votes early and often.
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Hawaii
Kansas
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Jersey
Ohio
Oklahoma
Utah -
In which states, if any, are absentee ballots counted, tabulated, and certified before election day?
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CW: CW: ukpol
It’s odd as an Australian and a recovering psephologist to see #polls conducted this way. Surely ranked preferences would give a far clearer indication of #Tory sentiment than FPTP? The methodology seems so hamfisted—hardly worth quoting to two decimal places.
I know little about Ms Badenoch but my takeaway is ~74% of party members can’t even stomach the “clear favourite” to lead the #Conservatives. That doesn’t bode well for party unity.
#ukpol #psephology https://toot.wales/@NationCymru/112783888852008485
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Psephology question: is there any evidence for a kind of "Manchester United Effect" in election polling: people voting for the folk they expect to win so they can have "supported the winning team"?
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I don’t profess much knowledge of UK politics. But it is going to be pretty funny seeing all the Australian nut jobs who proclaim “first past the post is the only valid voting system” tangle themselves in knots as the right wing vote is split between Conservative and Reform, ensuring Labour victories.
#ukpol #auspol #psephology -
Wait... If Trump is disqualified from the ballot of x state, does that include write-ins?
This hurts my brain...
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Germany: Are the protests hurting the far right?
#CDU & Bavarian ally CSU came at 30% — slightly weaker than a month ago.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's #SPD up two points (to 16%) & Green Party up one (to 14%). #Neoliberal #FDP, headed by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, dropped below 5%, which would put them below threshold for representation #Bundestag.
Left Party also fell below the threshold.(1/2)
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(1/2)
"we collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.
The results indicate that the European Parliament will likely take a sharp turn to the right after June 2024"
#ECFR #EUelections #RightWing #EuropeanParliament #elections #psephology
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Why Biden Is Behind, and How He Could Come Back
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html
"The poll contains considerable evidence that it shouldn’t necessarily be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was three years ago. But even if Mr. Trump remains eminently beatable, the poll also suggests it may nonetheless be quite challenging for Mr. Biden himself"
#uspol #polling #Trump #Biden #psephology #PresidentialElectionof2024
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@JenRubin gives 5 reasons to ignore the #polling around 2024 US elections
"I don’t write about polls. You shouldn’t bother with them, either".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/10/pollings-unrealistic-coverage/
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No. It's because they are trying to stay in power by getting votes from a population in which a majority are primarily concerned with making ends meet in the short term, and a significant minority who are selfish and greedy above all.
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The origin of psephology has a connection to cricket scores, and hence the term "swing" in election results.
"In 1945 David Butler, a 20-year-old Oxford undergraduate, founded modern electoral science by applying the rudimentary statistics he honed on cricket scores to that year’s general election. He turned raw ballot tallies into percentages, and then calculated the shift in parties’ vote shares. He called this “swing”."
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@adrianfry @therightarticle #Labour is and has been a #neoliberal party, not a #socialist party for several decades. They have little understanding of #economics. They have no story to sell, no prophetic voice, no true leadership. Following the whims of #psephology directs us to lowest common-denominator. UK is set on a course of self-destruction with no Voice in the wilderness!