#hype-cycle — Public Fediverse posts

You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.

#BusinessLogic #LLM #HypeCycle

You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.

#BusinessLogic #LLM #HypeCycle

You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.

#BusinessLogic #LLM #HypeCycle

You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.

#BusinessLogic #LLM #HypeCycle

You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.

#BusinessLogic #LLM #HypeCycle

Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.

An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.

The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.

And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.

It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.

#LLMs #AI #HypeCycle #FuckDatacenters

Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.

An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.

The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.

And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.

It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.

#LLMs #AI #HypeCycle #FuckDatacenters

Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.

An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.

The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.

And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.

It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.

#LLMs #AI #HypeCycle #FuckDatacenters

Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.

An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.

The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.

And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.

It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.

#LLMs #AI #HypeCycle #FuckDatacenters

Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.

An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.

The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.

And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.

It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.

#LLMs #AI #HypeCycle #FuckDatacenters

https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482

@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell post that I've never written, thank you 👍

#ai #hypecycle #investment #motivation

https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482

@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell that I've never written, thank you 👍

#ai #hypecycle #investment #motivation

https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482

@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell post that I've never written, thank you 👍

#ai #hypecycle #investment #motivation

https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482

@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell post that I've never written, thank you 👍

#ai #hypecycle #investment #motivation

https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482

@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell post that I've never written, thank you 👍

#ai #hypecycle #investment #motivation

AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)

This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme

"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle

AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)

This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme

"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle

AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)

This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme

"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle

AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)

This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme

"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle

AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)

This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme

"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle

The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education

1. The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
2. The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
3. The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage

What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?

• We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
• The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
• The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.

The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education

1. The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
2. The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
3. The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage

What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?

• We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
• The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
• The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.

The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education

1. The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
2. The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
3. The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage

What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?

• We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
• The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
• The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.

The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education

1. The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
2. The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
3. The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage

What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?

• We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
• The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
• The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.

The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education

1. The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
2. The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
3. The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage

What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?

• We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
• The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
• The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.

Just got an email that made me a bit sad

"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."

Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?

So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.

#AI #HypeCycle

Just got an email that made me a bit sad

"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."

Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?

So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.

#AI #HypeCycle

Just got an email that made me a bit sad

"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."

Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?

So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.

#AI #HypeCycle

Just got an email that made me a bit sad

"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."

Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?

So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.

#AI #HypeCycle

Just got an email that made me a bit sad

"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."

Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?

So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.

#AI #HypeCycle

🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource

🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource

🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource

🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource

🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource

Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.

We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.

History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.

#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes

Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.

We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.

History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.

#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes

Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.

We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.

History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.

#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes

Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.

We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.

History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.

#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes

Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.

We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.

History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.

#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes

Every trend follows the same choreography:
excitement, overuse, disappointment, blog posts, courses, certifications, rebranding.

The technology changes.
The language changes.
The choreography doesn’t.
The incentives rarely do.

Eventually, we rediscover restraint and call it a new paradigm.

#TechTrends #HypeCycle #SoftwareIndustry #MetaTech #ByernNotes

Every trend follows the same choreography:
excitement, overuse, disappointment, blog posts, courses, certifications, rebranding.

The technology changes.
The language changes.
The choreography doesn’t.
The incentives rarely do.

Eventually, we rediscover restraint and call it a new paradigm.

#TechTrends #HypeCycle #SoftwareIndustry #MetaTech #ByernNotes

Every trend follows the same choreography:
excitement, overuse, disappointment, blog posts, courses, certifications, rebranding.

The technology changes.
The language changes.
The choreography doesn’t.
The incentives rarely do.

Eventually, we rediscover restraint and call it a new paradigm.

#TechTrends #HypeCycle #SoftwareIndustry #MetaTech #ByernNotes

Every new tool promises to reduce complexity.
Most of them succeed by relocating it somewhere else and calling it abstraction.

Instead of fewer problems, you get problems with different failure modes, new vocabulary, and better marketing.
The system looks simpler until something goes wrong.

The bill always arrives.
It’s just rarely itemized.

#SoftwareArchitecture #Tooling #HypeCycle #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #ByernNotes

Every new tool promises to reduce complexity.
Most of them succeed by relocating it somewhere else and calling it abstraction.

Instead of fewer problems, you get problems with different failure modes, new vocabulary, and better marketing.
The system looks simpler until something goes wrong.

The bill always arrives.
It’s just rarely itemized.

#SoftwareArchitecture #Tooling #HypeCycle #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #ByernNotes

Every new tool promises to reduce complexity.
Most of them succeed by relocating it somewhere else and calling it abstraction.

Instead of fewer problems, you get problems with different failure modes, new vocabulary, and better marketing.
The system looks simpler until something goes wrong.

The bill always arrives.
It’s just rarely itemized.

#SoftwareArchitecture #Tooling #HypeCycle #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #ByernNotes

I’m not anti-cloud, anti-AI, or anti-modern tooling.
I am anti-unexamined defaults.

Every abstraction optimizes for something.
Cost, scale, speed, control, ownership, responsibility.
If you don’t know what a system optimizes for, you are probably paying for it somewhere else.

Skepticism is not negativity.
It’s how engineers stay employed.

#SoftwareArchitecture #TechSkepticism #HypeCycle #SystemsDesign #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #CriticalThinking #ByernNotes

I’m not anti-cloud, anti-AI, or anti-modern tooling.
I am anti-unexamined defaults.

Every abstraction optimizes for something.
Cost, scale, speed, control, ownership, responsibility.
If you don’t know what a system optimizes for, you are probably paying for it somewhere else.

Skepticism is not negativity.
It’s how engineers stay employed.

#SoftwareArchitecture #TechSkepticism #HypeCycle #SystemsDesign #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #CriticalThinking #ByernNotes

Every few years the industry discovers a new way to rename “autocomplete” and call it a revolution.
This time it’s AI agents, last time it was microservices, before that SOA, before that CORBA.
Same problems, same trade-offs, better GPUs.
Still fun though!

#AI #HypeCycle #TechCulture #TechTrends #TechIndustry #SoftwareHistory #SoftwareEngineering

Every few years the industry discovers a new way to rename “autocomplete” and call it a revolution.
This time it’s AI agents, last time it was microservices, before that SOA, before that CORBA.
Same problems, same trade-offs, better GPUs.
Still fun though!

#AI #HypeCycle #TechCulture #TechTrends #TechIndustry #SoftwareHistory #SoftwareEngineering

I like this part in particular:

But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.

https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e

#VirtualReality #HypeCycle

I like this part in particular:

But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.

https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e

#VirtualReality #HypeCycle

I like this part in particular:

But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.

https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e

#VirtualReality #HypeCycle

I like this part in particular:

But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.

https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e

#VirtualReality #HypeCycle

I like this part in particular:

But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.

https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e

#VirtualReality #HypeCycle

🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated

🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated

🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated

🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated

Please bro, we’re so close to AGI, just $20,000,000,000 more bro

Via Audrey Watters’s newsletter

#AI #audreyWatters #hypeCycle #LLM #samAltman