#hype-cycle — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #hype-cycle, aggregated by home.social.
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🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource -
Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.
We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.
History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes
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I like this part in particular:
But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.
https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e
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🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated -
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A friendly reminder:
When reviewing a product, hyping up a new purchase, or raving about a business you visited, please mention the price/costs upfront BEFORE diving into the details. It is honest and helps readers/viewers make an immediate decision on whether it's interesting for them. You could even share your income or budget so people can better gauge whether it fits their own financial situation.
This is how you get $1000 SpyPhones.
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"One hint that we might just be stuck in a #hypecycle is the proliferation of what you might call “second-order slop” or “#slopaganda”: a tidal wave of newsletters, X threads expressing #awe at every press release and product announcement to hoover up some of that sweet, sweet advertising cash.
That #AI companies are actively patronising and fanning a cottage economy of selfdescribed educators and influencers to bring in new customers suggests the emperor has no clothes."
https://www.ft.com/content/24218775-57b1-4e9f-ba64-266a3239cf27 -
That thing when you realize several bosses return from a Gartner con tomorrow.
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@nixCraft this indicates the usual Apple strategy on the hype cycle: when a product is at the peak of inflated expectations, Apple doesn't want to burn money. They wait for the innovative companies to go belly-up during the trough of disillusionement and then hire the laid-off scientists and engineers and buy the patents cheaply, succeeding on the slope of enlightenment.
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Hype or investment? #openai may lose $44bn before perhaps making a profit.
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I just read that @EUCommission website on "web 4.0" and "virtual worlds" and I want to cry now.
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/factpages/virtual-worlds
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It must surely burst at some point, but it’s interesting reading this New Statesman piece from early August suggesting that the sharp dip in July could turn out to be a parallel to the dot com crash:
he dot-com crash began on a Friday – 10 March 2000 – but it wasn’t named as such until some time later. A week later, the New York Times declared “technology-heavy Nasdaq bounces back” as part of a new “surge” in stock prices. Internet companies were still attracting huge valuations without making any profit. Almost everyone believed the boom was still under way, but it had already become a crash: by October 2002, tech stocks had declined by almost 80 per cent from their peak.
It may be that 24 July 2024 comes to be remembered in similar terms. The Nasdaq-100 – an index of 100 publicly traded companies which includes Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and other Big Tech names – lost a trillion dollars in market value as investors looked at a new round of company reports and asked when exactly the world-changing AI revolution was going to show up as earnings. On 2 August, the investors moving their money out of the tech-heavy American stock market was “becoming a stampede”, Bloomberg News reported, as signs of a slowing US economy sent money flowing away from riskier investments.
This was the end of a period of spectacular growth that has in recent years been largely based on the AI narrative. From November 2022 to July 2024 the market value of Nvidia, which makes chips used for running large language models such as ChatGPT, increased by nearly $2.5trn – hundreds of billions more than the value of the entire FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest companies. By March of this year, tech stocks were priced as confidently (relative to their sales) as they had been at the height of the dot-com boom.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/08/when-the-ai-bubble-bursts
I’m completely out of my comfort zone here, but this appears to me like a much more individualised trajectory for the big tech firms whose fates are most tied up in GAI:
In terms of the integration of GAI into organisation, the bubble bursting would probably be a good thing. It could be useful to ground ourselves in the realisation this is just software: it’s extremely unusual software, with a remarkably range of capabilities, but integrating it into organisational processes isn’t something that should be done in a rush or out of a fear of being left behind.
If I understand the argument Varoufakis has made about technofeudalism accurately, we shouldn’t assume that disenchantment with the technology will necessarily lead to the bubble bursting. This implies that the real economy and stock markets are still cleaved together, whereas that’s exactly what has changed. If there are any economists reading this who have ideas about what I should read to better understand the AI bubble, I’m totally open to suggestions.
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/09/15/when-will-the-ai-bubble-burst-what-will-be-left-behind/
#AI #bigTech #bubble #generativeAI #hypeCycle #investment #platformCapitalism
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What will be left after the GenAI bubble bursts? Probably quite a lot given the accelerating capital investment which big tech firms are making in AI 👇
Over the last two years I’ve argued consistently that conflating large language models (as a technological development) with ‘Generative AI’ (as a hype cycle and market bubble) is obviously mistaken. The two things have been tightly coupled together since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGTP in November 2022 but it’s likely we’ll seen a decoupling over the coming months. I’m convinced the bursting of the bubble is getting closer but utterly unconvinced this means the technology will vanish, as some seem to be imagining. In fact I think the meaningful grappling with the technology can really begin at that stage, away from the dynamic astutely identified here:
Both groups of companies forgot the “make something people want” mantra. The generality of LLMs allowed developers to fool themselves into thinking that they were exempt from the need to find a product-market fit, as if prompting a model to perform a task is a replacement for carefully designed products or features.
https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-companies-are-pivoting-from-creating
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/08/20/genai-beyond-the-bubble/
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Cyble Named a Sample Vendor for Digital Risk Protection Services in Gartner® Hype Cycle™ for Managed IT Services, 2024 https://thecyberexpress.com/gartner-highlights-cyble-managed-it-services/ #HypeCycle™forManagedITServices #GartnerhighlightsCyble #TheCyberExpressNews #CybersecurityNews #ManagedITServices #TheCyberExpress #FirewallDaily #PressRelease
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What would it look like for the #Gartner #HypeCycle to break?
I think it's a helpful & broadly true description of market behaviour.
But I doubt it actually reduces harmful hype-chasing by huge companies. They are all primed to assume that they must be at the start of the ramp-up, instead of near the apex.
The way it's usually drawn, the height of the eventual "plateau" is way higher than it should be in most cases, and certainly with #AI.
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Mein Link für heute: Wie relevant sind Memes und VeryOnline-Momentum im amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf? Plus: In Sachen KI-Hype ist bereits Herbst. https://internetobservatorium.substack.com/p/aus-dem-internet-observatorium-102 #Newsletter #Digitalisierung #USWahlen #KünstlicheIntelligenz #HypeCycle
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Murky content-platform/AI partnerships be like:
“We’ll share more details of how it works as this partnership evolves, including how we’ll be distributing revenue-share payments to those whose content qualifies. If you want to opt out, we already offer the ability to opt out of content sharing.”
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CNBC recognising the #AIbubble risks - huge and growing gap between AI investment/costs and litte returns to show for it
https://youtu.be/dx-tMK7w5g8
#AIhype #IrrationalExuberance #HypeCycle -
We all know it's another bubble - #AI will pop at some point soon in the same way as the .com bubble. We are somewhere at the height of expectation on the #HypeCycle.
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So what point are we at in the AI hype cycle, do you suppose?
Not sure, but my guess is that we're over the Peak of Inflated Expectations and rapidly heading towards the Trough of Disillusionment.
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Just published: My article on the life cycle of #pioneercommunities and the influence they have on our imaginaries of #digital #futures. It's about the #Makers, #QuantifiedSelf, #HacksHackers and more.
#pioneers #startup #innovation #digitalfutures #mediatization #hype #hypecycle #sociotechnicalimaginaries #CalifornianIdeology #openaccess
👇 👇 👇
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/14614448241253766
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the sequel to boob zigurat is out now #hypecycle
https://downpour.games/~fotocopiadora/regular-ziggurat -
AI may be here to stay, but is information architecture and structured data here to stay too?
Join industry expert Carrie Hane at #IAC24 as she explores the role of structured content in the age of AI.
👉 Learn more at https://www.theiaconference.com/sessions/structured-content-in-the-age-of-ai-the-ticket-to-the-promised-land/
#AI #generativeAI #informationarchitecture #structuredcontent #ChatGPT #LLMs #hypecycle #information #ambiguity
