#hype-cycle — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #hype-cycle, aggregated by home.social.
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You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.
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You know, for all the shade thrown at the various LLM coding tools, there's another substantial tech cost saving I don't think folks have considered. If our senior dev checks in one more LLM generated POS that I have to go in and fix after they break production, I'm going to quit. Boom, instant savings in salary.
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Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.
An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.
The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.
And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.
It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.
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Just dawned on me how much the language around LLMs works in favor of the hype cycle.
An LLM does not "learn". It encodes words/tokens and their semantic relationships.
The LLM doesn’t "think". It sorts through semantic relationships to narrow its scope.
And it possesses "knowledge" in the same sense that a number line "knows" which number is larger.
It's a really clever, but also super lossy and, in practice, very unethical way to compress text.
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https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482
@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell that I've never written, thank you 👍
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https://transmom.love/@elilla/116724872723921482
@elilla the best "AI" hype in a Nutshell post that I've never written, thank you 👍
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AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)
This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme
"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle
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AI clearly heading into the Trough of Disillusionment! (per Gartner's Hype Cycle)
This is a major warning flag for all Frontier LLM Vendors. Clients are now beginning to assess less expensive and open alternatives - can you say DeepSeek! https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-ai-token-costs-are-becoming-a-huge-issue-company-seeks-improved-value-as-overspending-becomes-a-meme
"Chinese models are 10x to 30x cheaper than U.S. models. We’re already seeing evidence of this: Chinese models went from about 1% of developer usage in 2024 to more than 60% in May, and 80% of U.S. AI startups are now using Chinese open-source AI models." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/is-ai-more-expensive-than-the-employees #AI #AIAdoption #OpenAI #Altman #AITokens #DeepSeek #AIInvestment #AIBuildout #LLMs #Capital #Investment #StartUps #FrontierModels #ProfGMedia #Budgets #Gartner #HypeCycle
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The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education
- The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
- The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
- The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage
What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?
- We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
- The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
- The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.
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The three structural trends shaping the AI crisis in higher education
- The sociotechnical transformation of AI. It’s not simply that the technology is improving, it’s that the space for reflexivity is diminishing because the burden of articulation in chatbots is going down, inline automation tools are being built into everything and wearable AI blurs the boundary between human and technology.
- The political economy of the bubble. Either the investment bubble will burst, ranging from a ‘correction’ through to a systemic crisis, or the big AI labs will go to IPO. In either case there will be a new attention on business fundamentals and likely many firms getting destroyed in the process. It means that current offers aren’t stable (particularly from smaller startups) and that current pricing models will without a doubt change significantly.
- The political economy of higher education. In the UK context there’s a financial crisis in the sector which is going to get progressively worse. If we’re moving towards a post-pandemic economy defined by ecological and economic volatility globally then higher education will be under structural attack. It will be very difficult to reopen funding settlements while degree-based models contingent on the expectation of economic advantage will rapidly struggle if degrees no longer offer any advantage
What do I think follows from these for what universities do under present conditions?
- We can’t lock in reliably until the post-crash/IPO pricing models are much clearer than they are now. Otherwise we’re embedding products for we can reasonably expect the prices to be ratcheted up a few years down the line.
- The prospect for securing the existing assessment system is extremely limited in the medium term and the long term. It’s not going to be possible to separate out technological practice from non-technological practice in the manner which assessment security presupposes. This means that we urgently need to begin working towards assessment reform.
- The manner in which we respond to the first two challenges will be shaped by the financial and political pressures the sector is under. A dash for productivity through automation risks locking in unreliable system and incurring much greater costs later, as well as further undermining assessment integrity in a way which accelerates the declining (perceived) value of our degrees. A failure to address assessment integrity (and to be seen to do so) furthermore hands ammunition to critics of the sector for whom ‘ChatGPT degrees’ will figure alongside ‘woke degrees’ as economc criticism fuses with culture war criticism.
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Just got an email that made me a bit sad
"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."
Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?
So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.
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Just got an email that made me a bit sad
"... we want to let you know that starting on June 9, these courses will be available exclusively on MIT Learn, MIT’s new AI-enabled online learning platform."
Really? You need to replace a working web site that delivers basic content with something "AI-enabled"?
So glad I'm on the tail end of my time in tech.
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🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource -
🎙️ Neue BuzzZoom-Folge: Hype Cycle 🚨
Dirk @dde und Mario @DerMario nehmen den Gartner Hype Cycle auseinander, vom Gipfel der überzogenen Erwartungen bis zum Plateau der Produktivität.
Smartphones haben es geschafft, Blockchain und Segway nicht. Und KI? Steht wohl noch ziemlich weit oben.
Plus: Wann setzt Enshittification ein, und warum trifft es WhatsApp und AVM?
🎧 https://buzzzoom.de/132/
#BuzzZoom #HypeCycle #KI #Podcast #OpenSource -
Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.
We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.
History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes
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Every few years, the industry rediscovers a familiar truth: complexity does not disappear, it relocates.
We rename patterns, rebuild the same structures with better tooling, then act surprised when the old trade-offs return. Sometimes they do improve. Often the real progress is simply that we have better ways to observe and contain failure.
History does not make you cynical.
It makes you harder to sell to.#SoftwareHistory #Tech #SystemsThinking #SoftwareEngineering #HypeCycle #ByernNotes
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Every trend follows the same choreography:
excitement, overuse, disappointment, blog posts, courses, certifications, rebranding.The technology changes.
The language changes.
The choreography doesn’t.
The incentives rarely do.Eventually, we rediscover restraint and call it a new paradigm.
#TechTrends #HypeCycle #SoftwareIndustry #MetaTech #ByernNotes
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Every new tool promises to reduce complexity.
Most of them succeed by relocating it somewhere else and calling it abstraction.Instead of fewer problems, you get problems with different failure modes, new vocabulary, and better marketing.
The system looks simpler until something goes wrong.The bill always arrives.
It’s just rarely itemized.#SoftwareArchitecture #Tooling #HypeCycle #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #ByernNotes
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I’m not anti-cloud, anti-AI, or anti-modern tooling.
I am anti-unexamined defaults.Every abstraction optimizes for something.
Cost, scale, speed, control, ownership, responsibility.
If you don’t know what a system optimizes for, you are probably paying for it somewhere else.Skepticism is not negativity.
It’s how engineers stay employed.#SoftwareArchitecture #TechSkepticism #HypeCycle #SystemsDesign #EngineeringJudgment #TechCulture #CriticalThinking #ByernNotes
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Every few years the industry discovers a new way to rename “autocomplete” and call it a revolution.
This time it’s AI agents, last time it was microservices, before that SOA, before that CORBA.
Same problems, same trade-offs, better GPUs.
Still fun though!#AI #HypeCycle #TechCulture #TechTrends #TechIndustry #SoftwareHistory #SoftwareEngineering
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I like this part in particular:
But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.
https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e
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I like this part in particular:
But now that the hype has evaporated and the opportunists have migrated to AI, VR can finally breathe again. It can go back to what it was always meant to be: a creative frontier for gaming, exploration, and presence.
https://atomicpoet.org/objects/035530af-e02a-486b-a7ba-a3998d16143e
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🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated -
🚨 BREAKING: High school essay from 2012 declares *Markov Chains* as the OG language models! 🙄 Apparently, *Linear Algebra 101* had all the answers before #AI got cool. Who knew teenage musings could redefine the hype cycle? 😂
https://elijahpotter.dev/articles/markov_chains_are_the_original_language_models #MarkovChains #LinearAlgebra #HypeCycle #TeenageMusings #HackerNews #ngated -
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A friendly reminder:
When reviewing a product, hyping up a new purchase, or raving about a business you visited, please mention the price/costs upfront BEFORE diving into the details. It is honest and helps readers/viewers make an immediate decision on whether it's interesting for them. You could even share your income or budget so people can better gauge whether it fits their own financial situation.
This is how you get $1000 SpyPhones.
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"One hint that we might just be stuck in a #hypecycle is the proliferation of what you might call “second-order slop” or “#slopaganda”: a tidal wave of newsletters, X threads expressing #awe at every press release and product announcement to hoover up some of that sweet, sweet advertising cash.
That #AI companies are actively patronising and fanning a cottage economy of selfdescribed educators and influencers to bring in new customers suggests the emperor has no clothes."
https://www.ft.com/content/24218775-57b1-4e9f-ba64-266a3239cf27 -
"One hint that we might just be stuck in a #hypecycle is the proliferation of what you might call “second-order slop” or “#slopaganda”: a tidal wave of newsletters, X threads expressing #awe at every press release and product announcement to hoover up some of that sweet, sweet advertising cash.
That #AI companies are actively patronising and fanning a cottage economy of selfdescribed educators and influencers to bring in new customers suggests the emperor has no clothes."
https://www.ft.com/content/24218775-57b1-4e9f-ba64-266a3239cf27 -
That thing when you realize several bosses return from a Gartner con tomorrow.
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That thing when you realize several bosses return from a Gartner con tomorrow.
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@nixCraft this indicates the usual Apple strategy on the hype cycle: when a product is at the peak of inflated expectations, Apple doesn't want to burn money. They wait for the innovative companies to go belly-up during the trough of disillusionement and then hire the laid-off scientists and engineers and buy the patents cheaply, succeeding on the slope of enlightenment.
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@nixCraft this indicates the usual Apple strategy on the hype cycle: when a product is at the peak of inflated expectations, Apple doesn't want to burn money. They wait for the innovative companies to go belly-up during the trough of disillusionement and then hire the laid-off scientists and engineers and buy the patents cheaply, succeeding on the slope of enlightenment.
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Hype or investment? #openai may lose $44bn before perhaps making a profit.
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Hype or investment? #openai may lose $44bn before perhaps making a profit.
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I just read that @EUCommission website on "web 4.0" and "virtual worlds" and I want to cry now.
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/factpages/virtual-worlds
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I just read that @EUCommission website on "web 4.0" and "virtual worlds" and I want to cry now.
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/factpages/virtual-worlds
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It must surely burst at some point, but it’s interesting reading this New Statesman piece from early August suggesting that the sharp dip in July could turn out to be a parallel to the dot com crash:
he dot-com crash began on a Friday – 10 March 2000 – but it wasn’t named as such until some time later. A week later, the New York Times declared “technology-heavy Nasdaq bounces back” as part of a new “surge” in stock prices. Internet companies were still attracting huge valuations without making any profit. Almost everyone believed the boom was still under way, but it had already become a crash: by October 2002, tech stocks had declined by almost 80 per cent from their peak.
It may be that 24 July 2024 comes to be remembered in similar terms. The Nasdaq-100 – an index of 100 publicly traded companies which includes Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and other Big Tech names – lost a trillion dollars in market value as investors looked at a new round of company reports and asked when exactly the world-changing AI revolution was going to show up as earnings. On 2 August, the investors moving their money out of the tech-heavy American stock market was “becoming a stampede”, Bloomberg News reported, as signs of a slowing US economy sent money flowing away from riskier investments.
This was the end of a period of spectacular growth that has in recent years been largely based on the AI narrative. From November 2022 to July 2024 the market value of Nvidia, which makes chips used for running large language models such as ChatGPT, increased by nearly $2.5trn – hundreds of billions more than the value of the entire FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest companies. By March of this year, tech stocks were priced as confidently (relative to their sales) as they had been at the height of the dot-com boom.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/08/when-the-ai-bubble-bursts
I’m completely out of my comfort zone here, but this appears to me like a much more individualised trajectory for the big tech firms whose fates are most tied up in GAI:
In terms of the integration of GAI into organisation, the bubble bursting would probably be a good thing. It could be useful to ground ourselves in the realisation this is just software: it’s extremely unusual software, with a remarkably range of capabilities, but integrating it into organisational processes isn’t something that should be done in a rush or out of a fear of being left behind.
If I understand the argument Varoufakis has made about technofeudalism accurately, we shouldn’t assume that disenchantment with the technology will necessarily lead to the bubble bursting. This implies that the real economy and stock markets are still cleaved together, whereas that’s exactly what has changed. If there are any economists reading this who have ideas about what I should read to better understand the AI bubble, I’m totally open to suggestions.
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/09/15/when-will-the-ai-bubble-burst-what-will-be-left-behind/
#AI #bigTech #bubble #generativeAI #hypeCycle #investment #platformCapitalism
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It must surely burst at some point, but it’s interesting reading this New Statesman piece from early August suggesting that the sharp dip in July could turn out to be a parallel to the dot com crash:
he dot-com crash began on a Friday – 10 March 2000 – but it wasn’t named as such until some time later. A week later, the New York Times declared “technology-heavy Nasdaq bounces back” as part of a new “surge” in stock prices. Internet companies were still attracting huge valuations without making any profit. Almost everyone believed the boom was still under way, but it had already become a crash: by October 2002, tech stocks had declined by almost 80 per cent from their peak.
It may be that 24 July 2024 comes to be remembered in similar terms. The Nasdaq-100 – an index of 100 publicly traded companies which includes Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and other Big Tech names – lost a trillion dollars in market value as investors looked at a new round of company reports and asked when exactly the world-changing AI revolution was going to show up as earnings. On 2 August, the investors moving their money out of the tech-heavy American stock market was “becoming a stampede”, Bloomberg News reported, as signs of a slowing US economy sent money flowing away from riskier investments.
This was the end of a period of spectacular growth that has in recent years been largely based on the AI narrative. From November 2022 to July 2024 the market value of Nvidia, which makes chips used for running large language models such as ChatGPT, increased by nearly $2.5trn – hundreds of billions more than the value of the entire FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest companies. By March of this year, tech stocks were priced as confidently (relative to their sales) as they had been at the height of the dot-com boom.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/08/when-the-ai-bubble-bursts
I’m completely out of my comfort zone here, but this appears to me like a much more individualised trajectory for the big tech firms whose fates are most tied up in GAI:
In terms of the integration of GAI into organisation, the bubble bursting would probably be a good thing. It could be useful to ground ourselves in the realisation this is just software: it’s extremely unusual software, with a remarkably range of capabilities, but integrating it into organisational processes isn’t something that should be done in a rush or out of a fear of being left behind.
If I understand the argument Varoufakis has made about technofeudalism accurately, we shouldn’t assume that disenchantment with the technology will necessarily lead to the bubble bursting. This implies that the real economy and stock markets are still cleaved together, whereas that’s exactly what has changed. If there are any economists reading this who have ideas about what I should read to better understand the AI bubble, I’m totally open to suggestions.
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/09/15/when-will-the-ai-bubble-burst-what-will-be-left-behind/
#AI #bigTech #bubble #generativeAI #hypeCycle #investment #platformCapitalism
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What will be left after the GenAI bubble bursts? Probably quite a lot given the accelerating capital investment which big tech firms are making in AI 👇
Over the last two years I’ve argued consistently that conflating large language models (as a technological development) with ‘Generative AI’ (as a hype cycle and market bubble) is obviously mistaken. The two things have been tightly coupled together since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGTP in November 2022 but it’s likely we’ll seen a decoupling over the coming months. I’m convinced the bursting of the bubble is getting closer but utterly unconvinced this means the technology will vanish, as some seem to be imagining. In fact I think the meaningful grappling with the technology can really begin at that stage, away from the dynamic astutely identified here:
Both groups of companies forgot the “make something people want” mantra. The generality of LLMs allowed developers to fool themselves into thinking that they were exempt from the need to find a product-market fit, as if prompting a model to perform a task is a replacement for carefully designed products or features.
https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-companies-are-pivoting-from-creating
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/08/20/genai-beyond-the-bubble/
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What will be left after the GenAI bubble bursts? Probably quite a lot given the accelerating capital investment which big tech firms are making in AI 👇
Over the last two years I’ve argued consistently that conflating large language models (as a technological development) with ‘Generative AI’ (as a hype cycle and market bubble) is obviously mistaken. The two things have been tightly coupled together since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGTP in November 2022 but it’s likely we’ll seen a decoupling over the coming months. I’m convinced the bursting of the bubble is getting closer but utterly unconvinced this means the technology will vanish, as some seem to be imagining. In fact I think the meaningful grappling with the technology can really begin at that stage, away from the dynamic astutely identified here:
Both groups of companies forgot the “make something people want” mantra. The generality of LLMs allowed developers to fool themselves into thinking that they were exempt from the need to find a product-market fit, as if prompting a model to perform a task is a replacement for carefully designed products or features.
https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-companies-are-pivoting-from-creating
https://markcarrigan.net/2024/08/20/genai-beyond-the-bubble/
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Cyble Named a Sample Vendor for Digital Risk Protection Services in Gartner® Hype Cycle™ for Managed IT Services, 2024 https://thecyberexpress.com/gartner-highlights-cyble-managed-it-services/ #HypeCycle™forManagedITServices #GartnerhighlightsCyble #TheCyberExpressNews #CybersecurityNews #ManagedITServices #TheCyberExpress #FirewallDaily #PressRelease
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Cyble Named a Sample Vendor for Digital Risk Protection Services in Gartner® Hype Cycle™ for Managed IT Services, 2024 https://thecyberexpress.com/gartner-highlights-cyble-managed-it-services/ #HypeCycle™forManagedITServices #GartnerhighlightsCyble #TheCyberExpressNews #CybersecurityNews #ManagedITServices #TheCyberExpress #FirewallDaily #PressRelease
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What would it look like for the #Gartner #HypeCycle to break?
I think it's a helpful & broadly true description of market behaviour.
But I doubt it actually reduces harmful hype-chasing by huge companies. They are all primed to assume that they must be at the start of the ramp-up, instead of near the apex.
The way it's usually drawn, the height of the eventual "plateau" is way higher than it should be in most cases, and certainly with #AI.
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Mein Link für heute: Wie relevant sind Memes und VeryOnline-Momentum im amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf? Plus: In Sachen KI-Hype ist bereits Herbst. https://internetobservatorium.substack.com/p/aus-dem-internet-observatorium-102 #Newsletter #Digitalisierung #USWahlen #KünstlicheIntelligenz #HypeCycle
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Murky content-platform/AI partnerships be like:
“We’ll share more details of how it works as this partnership evolves, including how we’ll be distributing revenue-share payments to those whose content qualifies. If you want to opt out, we already offer the ability to opt out of content sharing.”
