#expectedvalue — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #expectedvalue, aggregated by home.social.
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Buying a scratch card feels harmless. But if every ticket guarantees a negative expected value… are you paying for hope, not opportunity?
https://www.emberhart.com/may-the-odds-never-be-in-your-favor-probabilities-of-winning-christmas-scratch-cards/
#Probability #EmberhartJourney #PositiveParenting #KindnessRocks #ExpectedValue #FinancialThinking #MathMatters -
⚽ Ever wondered how Expected Value and Statistical Markets actually work in football analytics?
In this short demo, PlayAIOdds.com shows how AI models calculate real probabilities and highlight true market value — no gambling, just data.
🎥 Watch: https://youtube.com/shorts/dUqMlqGvlso
🧠 Smart, Independent, Data-driven.
#FootballAnalysis #AI #ExpectedValue #SportsData #PlayAIOdds -
Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting – How to Find a Real “Value Bet” Like a Pro
I explain how EV works, how bookmaker margins distort probabilities, and how tools like https://playaiodds.com can help you find true +EV bets.
Betting isn’t about luck — it’s about logic, math, and long-term thinking.
#ExpectedValue #SportsAnalytics #ValueBetting #AI #PlayAIodds #SportsBetting
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Ah, nothing like a baffling bank loan 🤔 where numbers magically morph to defy logic! 🚀 J.P. Morgan seems to have forgotten that OpenAI's revenue is as ethereal as their AI models' hallucinations. Maybe their "Expected Value" calculation just implies *expecting* any value at all! 🤷♂️
https://marketunpack.com/j-p-morgans-openai-loan-is-strange/ #bafflingbankloan #JPMorgan #OpenAI #revenuehallucinations #expectedvalue #financehumor #HackerNews #ngated -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
CW: Risk analysis re: money, war, terrorism
Today in #Logic: #expectedValue/utility
Student calculations determined whether to kick a field goal or go for first down, whether to buy smartphone #insurance, how to optimize #retirement #savings, and where to deploy troops to minimize losses.
Then they determined which part of a #trip to a country with known terrorist activity is riskiest: #driving to the airport, #flying to the country, or being in the country. (Driving was the riskiest part.)
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3Blue1Brown on Wordle, probability, information theory, and expected value.
Or: Shannon, von Neumann, and Pascal walk into a word game...
Whether or not you've been sucked into this word game fad, this is a really good explanation of the relationships between probability and expected information value (I = -log2(p)), as well as how to optimally find one element within a known search space.
It explains the logic behind selecting starting words for Wordle, as well as how and why optimisers choose their own guesses, and what an optimal solver's ultimate limits would be.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=v68zYyaEmEA
HN discuussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30232413
#Wordle #3Blue1Brown #Video #InformationTheory #Probability #ClaudeShannon #JohnVonNeumann #BlaisePascal #ExpectedValue
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3Blue1Brown on Wordle, probability, information theory, and expected value.
Or: Shannon, von Neumann, and Pascal walk into a word game...
Whether or not you've been sucked into this word game fad, this is a really good explanation of the relationships between probability and expected information value (I = -log2(p)), as well as how to optimally find one element within a known search space.
It explains the logic behind selecting starting words for Wordle, as well as how and why optimisers choose their own guesses, and what an optimal solver's ultimate limits would be.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=v68zYyaEmEA
HN discuussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30232413
#Wordle #3Blue1Brown #Video #InformationTheory #Probability #ClaudeShannon #JohnVonNeumann #BlaisePascal #ExpectedValue
