#expectedvalue — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #expectedvalue, aggregated by home.social.
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However, this comes with plenty of caveats and blind spots.
xG assumes that shots are independent Bernoulli trials.
In reality, shots within a match are correlated.
A team that's behind on the scoreboard tends to generate more chances, but often of lower quality.
The model also doesn't account for how good (or bad) the goalkeeper is. Nor does it capture the pressure or motivation players feel when taking a shot.
It also fails to capture the tactical context of a match.
In the end, there are moments when it's like modeling market correlations with a Pearson correlation matrix during a financial panic. The dependence structure changes. You need copulas!
Even with its limitations, though, xG remains one of the best metrics we have for characterizing a football match.
The scoreboard tells you who won.
xG tells you who was more likely to have won based on the chances they created.
#ExpectedGoals #xG #FootballAnalytics #SoccerAnalytics #DataScience #SportsAnalytics #Probability #Statistics #MachineLearning #LogisticRegression #GradientBoosting #Bernoulli #ExpectedValue #Football #Soccer #WorldCup #FIFA #TacticalAnalysis #PerformanceAnalysis #SportsData #DataVisualization #Analytics #QuantitativeAnalysis #Mathematics #PredictiveModeling #FootballStats #xGA #Mbappe #Spain #Argentina
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Scratch Card Odds 7/10 Each card quietly costs €1.90 in expected value. Buying five cards means tossing €9.50 away—on average. 🗑️ #ExpectedValue #CostOfHope #MathInLife
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Buying a scratch card feels harmless. But if every ticket guarantees a negative expected value… are you paying for hope, not opportunity?
https://www.emberhart.com/may-the-odds-never-be-in-your-favor-probabilities-of-winning-christmas-scratch-cards/
#Probability #EmberhartJourney #PositiveParenting #KindnessRocks #ExpectedValue #FinancialThinking #MathMatters -
Ah, nothing like a baffling bank loan 🤔 where numbers magically morph to defy logic! 🚀 J.P. Morgan seems to have forgotten that OpenAI's revenue is as ethereal as their AI models' hallucinations. Maybe their "Expected Value" calculation just implies *expecting* any value at all! 🤷♂️
https://marketunpack.com/j-p-morgans-openai-loan-is-strange/ #bafflingbankloan #JPMorgan #OpenAI #revenuehallucinations #expectedvalue #financehumor #HackerNews #ngated -
Ah, nothing like a baffling bank loan 🤔 where numbers magically morph to defy logic! 🚀 J.P. Morgan seems to have forgotten that OpenAI's revenue is as ethereal as their AI models' hallucinations. Maybe their "Expected Value" calculation just implies *expecting* any value at all! 🤷♂️
https://marketunpack.com/j-p-morgans-openai-loan-is-strange/ #bafflingbankloan #JPMorgan #OpenAI #revenuehallucinations #expectedvalue #financehumor #HackerNews #ngated -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
@noahshachtman
The easiest #ExpectedValue problem ever ( America's #IntelligenceTest )... -
CW: Risk analysis re: money, war, terrorism
Today in #Logic: #expectedValue/utility
Student calculations determined whether to kick a field goal or go for first down, whether to buy smartphone #insurance, how to optimize #retirement #savings, and where to deploy troops to minimize losses.
Then they determined which part of a #trip to a country with known terrorist activity is riskiest: #driving to the airport, #flying to the country, or being in the country. (Driving was the riskiest part.)
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3Blue1Brown on Wordle, probability, information theory, and expected value.
Or: Shannon, von Neumann, and Pascal walk into a word game...
Whether or not you've been sucked into this word game fad, this is a really good explanation of the relationships between probability and expected information value (I = -log2(p)), as well as how to optimally find one element within a known search space.
It explains the logic behind selecting starting words for Wordle, as well as how and why optimisers choose their own guesses, and what an optimal solver's ultimate limits would be.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=v68zYyaEmEA
HN discuussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30232413
#Wordle #3Blue1Brown #Video #InformationTheory #Probability #ClaudeShannon #JohnVonNeumann #BlaisePascal #ExpectedValue
