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#footballanalytics — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. Analysis of the xG (expected goals) created and conceded per game for each R16 team, along with Germany and the Netherlands (R32).

    The statistics suggest that 🇪🇸 Spain's World Cup victory was driven primarily by defensive dominance rather than overwhelming attacking output. Clearly, they had the best balance between attacking output and defensive solidity (both efficient and defensive) throughout the tournament. They were technically the most complete team and thoroughly deserved to be crowned World Champions.🌎🥇🏆

    • Lowest xG conceded in the tournament: 0.30 per match.

    • Highest xG difference among all semi-finalists: +1.65.

    • Held both 🇫🇷 France (0.31 xG) and 🇦🇷 Argentina (0.22 xG), the other finalists and one of the strongest attacking teams, to almost no chance in the knockout rounds.

    While 🇫🇷 France were the most prolific attacking side and 🇧🇷 Brazil (eliminated in R16) led the tournament in xG created, 🇪🇸 La Roja consistently controlled matches at both ends of the pitch. Their ability to suppress opponents' chance creation was the defining statistical feature of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

    #xG #ExpectedGoals #FootballAnalytics #FootballStats #SoccerAnalytics #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026 #Spain #LaRoja #SpainNationalTeam #WorldChampions #Football #Soccer #MatchAnalysis #DataAnalysis #SportsAnalytics #TacticalAnalysis #FootballTactics #KnockoutStage #DefensiveMasterclass #DefensiveSolidity #EliteDefense #AttackVsDefense #SpainFootball #France #Argentina #Brazil #WorldCupStats #FootballData #SoccerStats

  2. However, this comes with plenty of caveats and blind spots.

    xG assumes that shots are independent Bernoulli trials.

    In reality, shots within a match are correlated.

    A team that's behind on the scoreboard tends to generate more chances, but often of lower quality.

    The model also doesn't account for how good (or bad) the goalkeeper is. Nor does it capture the pressure or motivation players feel when taking a shot.

    It also fails to capture the tactical context of a match.

    In the end, there are moments when it's like modeling market correlations with a Pearson correlation matrix during a financial panic. The dependence structure changes. You need copulas!

    Even with its limitations, though, xG remains one of the best metrics we have for characterizing a football match.

    The scoreboard tells you who won.

    xG tells you who was more likely to have won based on the chances they created.

    #ExpectedGoals #xG #FootballAnalytics #SoccerAnalytics #DataScience #SportsAnalytics #Probability #Statistics #MachineLearning #LogisticRegression #GradientBoosting #Bernoulli #ExpectedValue #Football #Soccer #WorldCup #FIFA #TacticalAnalysis #PerformanceAnalysis #SportsData #DataVisualization #Analytics #QuantitativeAnalysis #Mathematics #PredictiveModeling #FootballStats #xGA #Mbappe #Spain #Argentina

  3. From Bioreactors to Brier Scores: Building Model90, a Football Prediction Engine

    What happens when a bioreactor engineer points his state-estimation toolkit at football. Model90 is a statistical forecasting engine for the 2026 World Cup and the major leagues, built on Dixon-Coles Poisson, Elo, xG and a calibrated meta-model. An honest look at how it works and what its Brier score really means.

    kemal.yaylali.uk/model90-footb

  4. Football's Data Game: Style Over Substance Reigns Supreme

    Premier League teams are focusing on how they play, not just winning, according to the new 'futi' app. See which teams have the best style.

    #FootballAnalytics, #PremierLeague, #FutiApp, #TeamStyle, #DataInSport

    newsletter.tf/football-app-fut

  5. A new football app called 'futi' analyzed Premier League teams this season. It found that teams are focusing more on their playing style than just winning games.

    #FootballAnalytics, #PremierLeague, #FutiApp, #TeamStyle, #DataInSport
    newsletter.tf/football-app-fut

  6. NFL Draft Forecasters Grapple with Uncertainty as 2026 Approaches

    See how 2026 NFL Draft simulators from ESPN, Big Board Lab, and others use data to predict player picks and trades for fans.

    #NFLDraft2026, #MockDraft, #NFLSimulators, #FootballAnalytics, #PlayerPredictions

    newsletter.tf/2026-nfl-draft-s

  7. The Quantification of Potential: 2026 NFL Draft Metrics

    The 2026 NFL Draft on April 23 uses detailed player traits like arm strength and speed to predict success. See how scouts evaluate athletes.

    #NFldraft, #NFLScouting, #PlayerMetrics, #FootballAnalytics, #Draft2026

    newsletter.tf/2026-nfl-draft-p

  8. Scouts are now using more than 50 specific player traits to rank college athletes for the 2026 NFL Draft, a big change from just looking at game film.

    #NFldraft, #NFLScouting, #PlayerMetrics, #FootballAnalytics, #Draft2026
    newsletter.tf/2026-nfl-draft-p

  9. 🏈📈 The New NFL Economy is here
    From NIL dynamics to roster valuation and player leverage, the league’s financial logic is evolving fast. This deep dive breaks down how teams, prospects, and decision-makers are adapting to a smarter, more strategic NFL ecosystem. 💼🧠
    In today’s game, value isn’t just measured on the field — it’s negotiated, projected, and optimized. 🔍🔥

    #NFL
    #NFLEconomy
    #NFLDraft
    #FootballAnalytics
    #RosterBuilding
    #SportsBusiness
    #NIL

    nfldraftdiamonds.com/2025/12/t

  10. A mind-opening read for anyone interested in how betting really works.
    This article breaks down concepts most bettors never consider — and it might change the way you think about “safe” bets.
    Highly recommended 👇

    🔗 medium.com/@adrien.ditta/why-s

    Feel free to follow for more.

    The independent quant engine v2.1 is now live on PlayAiOdds.com, offering a clearer, math-first interpretation of football probabilities.

    #SportsBetting #Analytics #ValueBetting #Probability #DataScience #FootballAnalytics #EV

  11. 🔥 Most bettors don’t lose because of bad luck — they lose because they ignore the fundamentals.

    Small, safe bankrolls.
    Fair-margin bookmakers.
    Avoiding high-variance matches.
    Checking overall ticket probability.
    Betting with logic instead of emotion.

    Full article here 👇
    medium.com/@adrien.ditta/the-f

    If you’re into disciplined betting, data-driven thinking, and football analytics, feel free to follow for more content.

    #SportsBetting #FootballAnalytics #BetSmart #Probability #GamblingAwareness

  12. Chán nản việc tìm kiếm thống kê bóng đá thủ công, một nhà phát triển đã tạo ra WoneraAI – nền tảng phân tích bóng đá dùng AI. WoneraAI giúp bạn hỏi bất kỳ câu hỏi nào bằng ngôn ngữ tự nhiên (hơn 20 ngôn ngữ) và nhận kết quả tức thì về dữ liệu từ hơn 40 giải đấu. Có bản web, WhatsApp bot và API.

    #WoneraAI #FootballAI #AIbóngđá #Phântíchbóngđá #FootballAnalytics

    reddit.com/r/SaaS/comments/1nz

  13. 🔍 For the second year in a row, #BernardoSilva leads the #PremierLeague in distance covered on the first match day of the season:

    🏃‍♂️ 12.6km vs #Burnley (2023-24)
    🏃‍♂️ 12.4km vs #Chelsea (2024-25)

    This man is a machine. 🐇💥

    #PremierLeague #BernardoSilva #FootballAnalytics #UnoCalcio #Opta

  14. For those interested in getting into, or progressing in, football analytics I've put together this v1 of what I hope will be a future weekly newsletter

    getgoalsideanalytics.com/footb

    Please give it a look and sign up if you feel like it (note: the sign-up button doesn't currently respond, but it _does_ register)

    Any feedback welcome

    #FootballAnalytics #SoccerAnalytics #Ghost #FootballData #SoccerData

  15. Hello. My first toot!

    I'm Justin from Australia.

    Professionally, I work in public health in a role that straddles data engineering, analytics engineering and data analytics.

    Outside of work, I have a passion for applying analytics to football (the beautiful game). I have been working on a Streamlit app which uses numpy to perform random simulations of a football match, modelling the outcomes based on shot quality (xG):
    single-match-xg-simulator.stre

    #datadon #footballanalytics #python #pydata

  16. Ok, my favourite #data people are here. Where are my favourite #football #soccer (😢) people? Even better if I can find my most favourite #footballdata #footballanalytics people? #xG

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