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SENEDD ELECTION: Reform UK Wales leader visits Llanelli as party targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats with nine days to go

Reform UK Wales leader Dan Thomas has visited Llanelli as the party steps up its campaign in Carmarthenshire ahead of the Senedd election on May 7.

Thomas, joined by Wales Director David Thomas, spent the day with local candidates and members canvassing in Llanelli town centre, the market, St Elli Shopping Centre and on doorsteps across the area.

Gareth Beer, Reform UK’s lead candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin and Carmarthenshire branch chairman, said the mood on the doorstep had been positive.

“There is great momentum in the county and people are pleased to speak to us and hear about our policies,” he said. “Many people see this election as an important one, and many who have been put off voting in the past are now considering Reform.”

“That’s good to hear — there is a clear shift in this area from the mainstream parties. We are relating to a diverse range of voters which other parties may be struggling to engage with.”

Dan Thomas said he was impressed by the local campaign operation. “The branch has outstanding, very relatable, hard working candidates who have been, for several weeks, campaigning tirelessly, getting out there to speak to as many residents as possible,” he said.

“I was particularly pleased to support the strong Llanelli campaign, where the team is working hard to connect with local people every day and to spread the word on what Reform will do for the people of Wales.”

Reform UK Wales’s key Senedd election pledges include cutting 1p off every band of Welsh income tax, scrapping the default 20mph speed limit in built-up areas, advancing the M4 relief road, and reforming business rates to reduce the burden on independent retailers and hospitality venues.

The party also highlighted the importance of revitalising high streets, noting that Llanelli town centre was quieter than expected during the Saturday visit.

The Sir Gaerfyrddin constituency is one of the most closely watched in Wales ahead of May 7. According to the More in Common MRP we reported last week, Reform UK are projected to win two seats in the constituency on 26% of the vote, behind Plaid Cymru on 37%.

However, the latest YouGov MRP paints a more dramatic picture — putting Reform on 31% and projecting them winning three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin, level with Plaid, and giving Labour no seats in the constituency at all. If that projection holds, both Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto would be elected for Reform in Carmarthenshire.

Across Wales as a whole, the race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK remains on a knife-edge, with the two parties tied on 29% of the vote in the YouGov model and separated by just one projected seat nationally. Reform had no seats at all in the Senedd at the last election in 2021.

The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our More in Common MRP analysis with candidate-by-candidate projections for Sir Gaerfyrddin.

SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major new polls show Wales is heading for historic result
The latest YouGov and Ipsos polling and what it means for Carmarthenshire.

Scarlets: Candidates unite across party lines to demand Senedd scrutiny of WRU’s West Wales merger plans
How candidates across parties in Sir Gaerfyrddin have responded to the WRU crisis.

Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of Swansea Bay News reporting on the May 7 election.

LLANDEILO: Green candidate’s bypass backing sparks row with Labour MS — as locals say just build it

A bypass that has been promised, delayed, reviewed and re-promised for more than half a century has found a new use — as ammunition in a Senedd election row between a Green Party candidate and the Labour MS whose seat he is now trying to win.

The flashpoint came when Cllr Rob James, the Green Party’s lead candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin — the constituency covering the whole of Carmarthenshire — posted on Facebook backing the long-awaited Llandeilo bypass.

The bypass has been in the pipeline since it was first raised in Parliament in 1970. Feasibility studies were underway by 1973. Construction was supposed to begin in 2019. It didn’t. A new start date of 2025 was set. That didn’t happen either. The current estimate has construction beginning in 2029, with completion targeted for 2031 — and a price tag of £88 million, up from an original budget of £50 million.

Cllr James invoked the case of Ella Kissi-Debrah — the first person in the UK whose death was officially linked to air pollution — to make his case. “Air quality isn’t an abstract issue. It has real consequences,” he wrote, arguing that HGVs thundering through Llandeilo’s narrow streets every day were creating real health risks.

Llandeilo is a designated air quality management area due to historic breaches in nitrogen dioxide levels. “Doing nothing,” Cllr James said, “isn’t a Green option.”

Lee Waters, the outgoing Labour MS for Llanelli — whose constituency has been absorbed into the new county-wide Sir Gaerfyrddin seat at this election — was unimpressed. A champion of sustainable transport who is not seeking re-election in May, his response on Facebook was brief and pointed: “Novel to have a Green candidate who favours building a by-pass on a flood plain.”

Waters then contacted media outlets to pile on further, saying: “See this Facebook comment from the lead Green candidate in Carmarthenshire, doubling down in favour of a by-pass. Needless to say, this is not Green policy.”

There is some irony in Waters taking this particular stand. As transport minister, he oversaw a review that froze most new road-building projects in Wales — but the Llandeilo bypass was one of the few schemes that survived the cull. A consultant, Arcadis, was subsequently appointed to develop the outline design. The bypass remains Welsh Government policy — a point Cllr James was quick to make.

“The Welsh Government has decided to take forward the Llandeilo bypass, so it’s Labour Party policy,” Cllr James hit back. “Obviously there are concerns about its precise routing and there’s a need to make sure that environmental factors are taken into consideration. To be fair, Plaid Cymru, which controls the county council, has taken that view for a long time. Llandeilo deserves its bypass.”

While the two traded blows online, Carl Peters-Bond, an independent candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin, said the whole row was missing the point. “Having listened to the people of Llandeilo, they’re not interested in political spats — they just want their bypass built,” he said.

Peters-Bond, who has been campaigning in the town, said the reality on the ground was hard to ignore. “Whilst campaigning recently in Llandeilo it was not possible to hold a conversation for more than a few seconds before getting deafened by huge HGVs thundering through the narrow streets. Air pollution, noise and road safety concerns in Llandeilo are a real concern for residents.”

He added: “The bypass has been talked about at length for decades. It’s a trunk-route part of the major A483 that links South West and North Wales. The volume of heavy goods and other vehicle traffic that navigate the narrow roads have far exceeded what is safe. It’s about time the bypass was built.”

Cllr James also used the exchange to make a bold claim about the Greens’ prospects in the constituency. “The Labour vote in Carmarthenshire has collapsed and we believe the Greens are likely to poll higher than Labour. We are definitely in with a chance of winning a seat here,” he said.

The spat is not without its backstory. Cllr James was previously the leader of the opposition Labour group on Carmarthenshire County Council before being suspended by the party in January 2024 and subsequently joining the Greens.

His path out of Labour followed an incident in which he was accused of sending a text message to a Plaid Cymru councillor suggesting they could have some fun by claiming that Waters had two homes in Llanelli and didn’t live in either of them. He said the message was meant facetiously and that he had forgotten sending it. Party officials said allowing him to remain in Labour’s parliamentary candidate selection process would risk reputational damage for the party.

That history between the two makes the Facebook spat feel like rather more than an abstract policy debate — and all the while, in Llandeilo, the lorries keep coming through.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Consultant appointed to progress Llandeilo bypass scheme
The Welsh Government appointed Arcadis Consulting to develop the outline design for the long-awaited A483 bypass.

Former Carmarthenshire Labour leader defects to Green Party
How Cllr Rob James made the move from Labour group leader to Green Party Senedd candidate.

Controversial Welsh transport minister to leave post
Lee Waters steps down as transport minister and announces he will not seek re-election.

Freeze on new roads projects to be announced
The road-building review that froze most Welsh Government schemes — but not the Llandeilo bypass.

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate
Polling shows contrasting futures for South West Wales between Westminster and Senedd elections.

Reform still leading in South West Wales
Labour makes gains but Reform UK remains ahead in the latest Senedd polling snapshot.

Reform surge redraws political map
Reform UK’s rise reshapes the electoral landscape across South West Wales constituencies.

Reform pulls ahead as Plaid slips
Reform UK takes the lead while Plaid Cymru loses ground and Labour edges back.

First Minister warns of chaos
Mark Drakeford warns Wales could face chaos if Plaid or Reform win the Senedd election.

Plaid and Reform neck and neck
Labour slumps to a historic low as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK tie in the polls.

Two‑thirds think politicians are out for themselves
A YouGov poll finds widespread distrust, with most believing politicians act in self‑interest.

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Carmarthenshire or Sir Gaerfyrddin, given as Caermardenshire, edged in red. Also shows part of Ceredigion or Cardiganshire. 4/19 #SirGaerfyrddin #Carmarthenshire #Ceredigion #Cardiganshire

Carmarthenshire or Sir Gaerfyrddin, given as Caermardenshire, edged in red. Also shows part of Ceredigion or Cardiganshire. 4/19 #SirGaerfyrddin #Carmarthenshire #Ceredigion #Cardiganshire

Carmarthenshire or Sir Gaerfyrddin, given as Caermardenshire, edged in red. Also shows part of Ceredigion or Cardiganshire. 4/19 #SirGaerfyrddin #Carmarthenshire #Ceredigion #Cardiganshire

Carmarthenshire or Sir Gaerfyrddin, given as Caermardenshire, edged in red. Also shows part of Ceredigion or Cardiganshire. 4/19 #SirGaerfyrddin #Carmarthenshire #Ceredigion #Cardiganshire

Carmarthenshire or Sir Gaerfyrddin, given as Caermardenshire, edged in red. Also shows part of Ceredigion or Cardiganshire. 4/19 #SirGaerfyrddin #Carmarthenshire #Ceredigion #Cardiganshire