#welsh-liberal-democrats — Public Fediverse posts

JANE DODDS: Welsh Lib Dem leader stands down after nine years, saying a ‘new generation’ should rebuild the party

Jane Dodds is standing down as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats after nine years, telling members the job of rebuilding the party “should be led by a new generation”.

She stays on as the Member of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the party’s only seat in Cardiff Bay. “I am not going anywhere,” she said.

A new leader is due by 16 November, and Dodds said party president Tim Sly would write to members “in the coming days” with the timetable. Only the party’s MPs and MSs can stand under its current rules, which leaves David Chadwick, the Lib Dem MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, as the only eligible candidate.

Chadwick is not saying yet whether he wants the job.

“There will understandably be questions about what comes next. Today should be about Jane and her contribution to our party. I will make a statement about my own political future in the coming days,” he said.

‘I don’t want to be the only one after the next election’: why Dodds is going now

“Leading this party has been the honour of my life,” Dodds wrote to members. “I believe that work should be led by a new generation, and that the right time to hand over is now, while there is time to build.”

“Once again, I am our party’s only Member of the Senedd. I don’t want to be the only one after the next election,” she said. “Wales needs a team of liberal voices in the Senedd, and that means starting now.”

Of May’s election, she said: “If I’m honest, it wasn’t the result we worked so hard for.” Reform UK took three of the six Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seats, Plaid Cymru two and Dodds the sixth, with Labour getting none.

Across Wales the Lib Dems stayed on a single seat. Dodds has sat in the Senedd since 2021, first for Mid and West Wales, after winning the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election in 2019 and losing the seat that December.

“When I became leader, Theresa May was Prime Minister and Carwyn Jones was First Minister. Six Prime Ministers and five First Ministers later, I hope I have given our party something steady to build on,” she said.

‘One child growing up in poverty is one too many’: the fight Dodds says she is staying for

“I spent 27 years as a child protection social worker. I saw what poverty does to children, and I have never been able to accept it,” Dodds said. “One child growing up in poverty is one too many.”

“Today, more than 200,000 children in Wales, almost one in three, are growing up poor,” she said. The Plaid Cymru Welsh Government “has promised to put child poverty at the heart of everything it does. I will hold them to that promise every single day”.

Her Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd neighbour Sioned Williams, Plaid’s Deputy First Minister, pledged an immediate focus on childcare and child poverty when the cabinet was named in May.

“I want the time and space in order to focus on that,” Dodds told ITV Wales, which reported that she intends to stand for the Senedd again in 2030.

The £1 bus fare, childcare money and the Ystradgynlais hospital fight: what one Lib Dem vote bought

With one seat, Dodds traded her vote on Labour budgets for policy. “With just one voice in the Senedd, we used our budget deal to win real money for childcare, for families who were desperate for it,” she said.

The £1 bus fare for under-22s came out of a £100m Labour and Lib Dem budget agreement she negotiated. That ticket has now carried more than nine million journeys and runs until March 2027.

Closer to home, she and Chadwick have led the campaign over beds at Ystradgynlais Community Hospital, and this month she took a 9,700-signature petition to First Minister’s Questions.

“And when others wanted Wales to turn its back on refugees, we stood up, loudly and proudly, for Wales as a Nation of Sanctuary,” she said. “None of that happened because of me. It happened because of you: the leaflets, the doorsteps, the phone banks, the wet Saturday mornings.”

Chadwick pointed to the gains made on her watch. “In 2022, we gained council seats in Wales for the first time in a decade, and at the 2024 General Election we re-established Welsh Liberal Democrat representation at Westminster,” he said.

“Jane has led the Welsh Liberal Democrats through an incredibly difficult period for both our party and Welsh politics, and she has done so with determination and resilience,” he said. “On a personal level, I am particularly grateful for everything Jane has done alongside me in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.”

UK party leader Ed Davey said she “secured big wins on social care, childcare, bus services and protecting rivers”. Her single vote still counts: Plaid governs as a minority, and the Senedd votes again on its budget on 3 November, two weeks before the Lib Dems’ leadership deadline.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

BRYCHEINIOG TAWE NEDD: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems, Welsh Labour wiped out
How the seat was decided in May.

YSTRADGYNLAIS: A 23-mile journey for a hospital bed, as Dodds takes the hospital fight to the First Minister
The petition she took to First Minister’s Questions this month.

£1 BUS FARES: Nine million journeys in, the £1 ticket for under-22s is staying until 2027
The fare that came out of her budget deal with Labour.

YSTRADGYNLAIS: ‘A 23-mile journey for a hospital bed’: Dodds takes the hospital fight to the First Minister

Ystradgynlais’s fight to keep its hospital beds reached the First Minister on Tuesday, a day after Powys Teaching Health Board opened the consultation that would move them out of the town.

Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrat Member of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, told Rhun ap Iorwerth the board’s proposals “would leave communities like Ystradgynlais with a 23-mile journey to receive in-patient care”.

“In a large rural county with poor public transport, as you will know, that matters enormously to patients, families and carers,” she said at First Minister’s Questions.

She said 9,700 people had signed the Lib Dems’ petition against the plans, up from the 7,000 the party reported last month, “yet their voices are being brushed aside”.

“They are repeatedly told by your Government, and the health board, to simply wait for the consultation to finish. But the options on the table mean that significant reductions in in-patient care are already baked in, and that consultation only presents one option.”

Ms Dodds said ministers had told campaigners the Welsh Government could not act, but it had intervened elsewhere, with the fire and rescue services. The Llywydd, Huw Irranca-Davies, cut in to ask for a question. Hers: “What will your Government do in order to listen to the voices of people in a rural area like Powys and make sure that these proposals are stopped?”

“Inappropriate for me to comment”: the First Minister’s answer

Mr ap Iorwerth said he was “certainly hearing the concerns”, and that her argument “amplifies concerns that have been raised elsewhere”. He would not intervene.

“This is a decision for the health board, of course, and consultation has begun on proposed options for its clinical services plan,” he said. “Evidence can be seen. Views can be shared, experiences and concerns shared, alternative ideas put forward too.”

The Welsh Government, he said, “expects the health board to make evidence-based decisions, underpin those decisions on robust options appraisals and impact assessments, to ensure that the future of services are sustainable, fit for purpose and safe for the local population”.

“But, other than that, given that this is an ongoing process led by the health board, it would be inappropriate for me to comment more than that.”

What the consultation offers Ystradgynlais

The board’s Better Together consultation opened on Monday and runs to 10 January. Both of its options for physical health beds take Powys from 146 community hospital beds to 90 on three sites or 60 on two, and neither keeps any of the 20 at Ystradgynlais Community Hospital.

The town’s minor injuries unit and X-ray would move to an enhanced urgent care centre in Brecon under both options, and the mental health ward that served over-65s would be replaced by a single centre in the Bronllys and Brecon area.

The board says every hospital site stays open and “no outcome has been predetermined”. Its chair, Dr Carl Cooper, said as the consultation opened: “This is your NHS and your opportunity to influence its future.” A decision is not expected before spring 2027.

The campaign has run since the summer. More than 400 people packed a public meeting in the town in August, and the row drew in Reform UK, who accused the Lib Dems of frightening residents.

Responses can be made through the board’s Better Together hub, by email to [email protected] or by post to Opinion Research Services, Freepost SS1018, PO Box 530, Swansea SA1 1ZL. The board is holding 13 drop-in events across the county and three online.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

YSTRADGYNLAIS: Hospital would lose its beds, minor injuries unit and X-ray under every option in health board shake-up – What the Better Together papers propose for the town.

YSTRADGYNLAIS: Hundreds pack hospital beds meeting as crowd spills onto the street – The August meeting that filled the hall.

YSTRADGYNLAIS: Beds campaigners brand Reform ‘naive’ as hospital row deepens – How the hospital fight became a political row.

Follow the Ystradgynlais Community Hospital story

GWAUN CAE GURWEN: More than eight in ten patients can’t get a GP appointment when they need one, inspectors told

Patients at the GP surgery in Gwaun Cae Gurwen have told inspectors, in overwhelming numbers, that they cannot get an appointment when they need one.

Of the 531 patients and carers who answered a Healthcare Inspectorate Wales survey, 85% said they could not get an urgent same-day appointment with a GP. The same proportion said they could not get a routine appointment when they needed it.

Asked about the service overall, 85% rated it poor. Just 15% rated it good.

The surgery is run by the Amman Tawe Partnership. Inspectors who visited on 2 June also found expired emergency equipment and medicines, and a urine sample stored in the vaccine fridge.

‘You can never get a face to face appointment with a GP’

Most consultations happen over the phone. Of those who answered, 68% said their appointment was by telephone, against 31% in person.

Only 31% said they had been offered a choice of appointment type, and 72% were not happy with the type they were given.

Among the comments patients left for inspectors, one said: “You can never get a face to face appointment with a GP.” Another wrote: “Couldn’t get an appointment. Was told to go to the hospital or pharmacist.”

One patient described leaving an appointment in tears, saying a doctor had been “very rude and offensive”.

Getting through at all was a problem for many: 72% said they could not contact the practice by phone or online when they needed to, and 79% of those with ongoing conditions said they could not easily get regular support.

Inside the consulting room, 73% did not feel listened to and 67% did not feel involved in decisions about their own care.

The nurses came out better. “Nurse led diabetic care is very good,” one patient wrote, and inspectors listed nurse-led care among the things the practice did well.

Out-of-date emergency kit and a urine sample in the vaccine fridge

The safety findings were serious enough for inspectors to demand immediate action. Some emergency equipment and medicines had passed their expiry dates, and the emergency kit was kept in a busy nursing room also used for intimate examinations.

The vaccine fridge was overstocked and disorganised, with a urine sample on its middle shelf. That was removed while inspectors were on site. They also found a large oxygen cylinder that was not secured, and a disabled toilet with no emergency pull cord.

The practice says it has since brought in a new weekly check of emergency drugs and equipment, overseen by its senior nurse, and is moving the emergency kit and defibrillator to the main hallway. It says a pull cord was ordered for the toilet straight after the inspection.

On access, staff told inspectors there were usually two to three GPs working across the partnership’s three sites on any given day, a number they said was rising with recruitment. The practice says it will review appointment availability, demand and phone activity, and remind clinicians of the importance of listening to patients.

Inspectors also found visible, supportive leadership and praised the practice’s follow-up of urgent suspected cancer referrals as noteworthy.

‘A vindication’ for residents, says MP

David Chadwick, the Welsh Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, said: “This is a damning report and a vindication of the local residents who have been raising the alarm about these services for years.”

He said complaints had been going on “since at least 2019”, adding: “The previous Labour Health Minister failed to resolve these longstanding problems, and the current Plaid Cymru Health Minister must now act.”

The partnership, which took over the Cross Hands surgery in 2024, is funded by two health boards. Mr Chadwick wants both Swansea Bay University Health Board and Hywel Dda to “take urgent action” and set out what they will do.

Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd Member for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, said the number of people who answered the survey showed “the depth of concern locally”.

She added: “Patients have waited long enough for improvements. Swansea Bay and Hywel Dda health boards must now work with the practice to address the serious issues identified by inspectors and rebuild the trust of the local community.”

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Amman Tawe to take over Cross Hands and Tumble GP surgeries
When the partnership took on its Carmarthenshire practice in 2024.

YSTRADGYNLAIS: Hospital would lose its beds, minor injuries unit and X-ray under every option in health board shake-up
The other health fight in the upper valleys, with the same MP and MS leading the campaign.

More from Gwaun Cae Gurwen
Every story from the village.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth named Wales’ new First Minister

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BRYCHEINIOG TAWE NEDD: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems — Welsh Labour wiped out

Reform UK has topped the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in another major breakthrough result for Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru took two seats in the constituency, with Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holding on to take the sixth and final seat for her party.

Welsh Labour was wiped out entirely – failing to win a single seat in a constituency that covers the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and parts of Neath Port Talbot.

It is the second south-west Wales constituency in which Welsh Labour has been completely shut out today, following a similar wipe-out in Sir Gaerfyrddin earlier this afternoon.

The result is significant on several fronts.

For Reform UK, topping the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd marks the second south Wales constituency in which the party has come first – following its win in Casnewydd Islwyn earlier in the day. The party also won three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin and three in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

For Plaid Cymru, two seats in a rural constituency where the party has historically performed strongly is a respectable but slightly disappointing return – particularly given how strongly the party has done elsewhere in Wales today.

And for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds holding on is a significant moment.

Dodds was the only Liberal Democrat MS in the previous Senedd, and her re-election ensures her party retains its presence at Cardiff Bay.

It is also the Welsh Lib Dems’ first confirmed seat of the day – giving the party a foothold in the new 96-seat Senedd that it has secured against difficult conditions for smaller parties under the new D’Hondt voting system.

Dodds had said during the campaign that she hoped her party would return a larger group than the single seat it secured in 2021.

For Welsh Labour, the result adds to a deeply difficult day. The party has now been wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – and reduced to a single seat in several other constituencies.

The result comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her own seat in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro and resigned as Welsh Labour leader.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and varied constituency stretching from the upper Swansea Valley up through Powys and across into rural Neath Port Talbot – taking in Ystradgynlais, Pontardawe, Brecon and the surrounding areas.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 52.98% – above the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The new Members of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will now take their seats when the seventh Senedd meets for the first time in the coming weeks.

Across Wales as a whole, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.

That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.

Attention now turns to Gwyr Abertawe – the Swansea constituency where the count is still under way, with declarations expected later this evening.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting got under way across Wales.

What does a Welsh defeat mean for Keir Starmer?
Senior Welsh Labour figures have called for the prime minister to consider his position if the result is as bad as predicted.

Polls open as voting underway across Wales for Senedd Election – live updates

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Uplands councillors join Liberal Democrats as former party leader hits back

Councillors Sandra Joy and Allan Jeffery, who were elected as Uplands Party candidates in 2022 before becoming Independents last year, have now joined the Liberal Democrats. The party announced the move as a boost ahead of the Senedd elections in May, saying it strengthens their position in Swansea.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS welcomed the pair, stating: “Sandra and Allan are exactly the kind of councillors communities want representing them. Rooted in their area, working hard for residents and not afraid to speak up when something was not right.”

She added that with services stretched and communities feeling taken for granted, “Only the Liberal Democrats can beat Labour, stop Reform and deliver for Swansea.”

Councillor Sandra Joy said joining the Liberal Democrats felt like the right step, stating that she and Allan Jeffery were “still the same people who would speak their minds and fight for Uplands every day, but now as part of a growing team ready to take the city in a better direction.”

However, the move has been strongly criticised by Uplands Party leader, Cllr Peter May, who provided additional context on the defections.

In a statement to Swansea Bay News, Cllr May pointed out this was the councillors’ second defection. He also revealed that Cllr Sandra Joy had moved out of the Uplands Ward to Sketty in June 2025, making her ineligible to continue as an Uplands Party councillor.

“She is seeking to run in Sketty ward in the council elections in 2027 which is presently held by the Liberal Democrats,” Cllr May said.

He also highlighted Cllr Allan Jeffery’s past electoral performance. “Allan Jeffery ran unsuccessfully in the Uplands ward as a Liberal Democrat in 2017. He polled 366 votes and finished 12th out of 18 candidates,” Cllr May stated.

“In 2022 he ran as an Uplands Party candidate and was successfully elected securing 1641 votes and finished 4th out of the 4 elected councillors. If he is running as a returning Liberal Democrat in 2027, I look forward to the contest.”

The Liberal Democrats now hold 13 of the 75 seats on Swansea Council.

M&S ROW: Council leader accuses Senedd candidate of using job losses for ‘deplorable’ election campaign

Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart has hit back at political opponents over the closure of the city’s M&S store, calling it “deplorable” that a Senedd candidate is using the potential loss of 90 local jobs for his election campaign.

The blistering attack comes in response to criticism from Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate Sam Bennett and Swansea Lib Dem leader Cllr Chris Holley, who yesterday questioned the council’s regeneration priorities in the wake of the M&S closure announcement.

In a statement, the Labour leader launched a full-throated defence of his administration’s record while attacking the previous Liberal Democrat-led council.

“It’s deplorable that Cllr Sam Bennett is using the closure of the store with the potential loss of 90 local jobs to try and further his Senedd election campaign,” Cllr Stewart said.

The attack is politically charged, as both men are candidates in the new Gŵyr Abertawe Senedd constituency for the 2026 election. Cllr Stewart is ranked second on the Welsh Labour list, while Cllr Bennett is the lead candidate for the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

He also criticised his Lib Dem counterpart, stating, “It’s also disappointing to see Cllr Holley doesn’t have confidence in Swansea, or its traders and businesses.”

Cllr Stewart claimed his opponents “have not openly supported any of the developments in Swansea delivered over the last 11 years” and are “critics of the £1.3bn city deal.”

He also revealed that M&S has not given up on the city, stating, “M&S are actively looking for a different location in Swansea and have acknowledged the positive impact the regeneration is having.”

He then turned his fire on the record of the previous Liberal Democrat administration, which was led by Cllr Holley for much of its tenure, and controlled Swansea Council from 2004-2012.

“The Lib Dems introduced the disastrous bendy bus, continually dug up the Kingsway and introduced the mad road system, and absolutely failed to invest and support local businesses to grow,” he said.

“They have no ambition for Swansea.”

Politicians demand action as M&S closure sparks row over council “vanity projects”

Liberal Democrats have accused Swansea Council‘s Labour leadership of making “ridiculous” assurances about the impact of multimillion-pound regeneration schemes, pointing to recent claims that the new library would drive footfall to M&S.

Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams MS has written to the Welsh Government demanding support for the 92 staff facing redundancy, describing the closure as a “sickeningly familiar story” of high streets losing historic stores.

The political fallout comes just days after M&S confirmed it will shut its Oxford Street store later this year, ending nearly a century of trading in the city centre.

Welsh Liberal Democrat lead Senedd candidate Cllr Sam Bennett said: “Time and time again the Labour Council Leader has assured us that the massive city centre projects would be the saving of the high street, and this announcement raises big questions.

“At the most recent Council meeting the Leader went as far to say how people were celebrating that the move of the library meant they could now go to M&S, this now sounds ridiculous.”

Cllr Chris Holley, Leader of the Opposition on Swansea Council and Welsh Lib Dem Group Leader, went further, claiming the council had privately assured them M&S would remain once the Yr Storfa development opened.

“We have continually asked and been told that Labour’s vanity projects would be the saving of our high street, and even been told in a meeting M&S would stay once Yr Storfa had opened,” he said.

“This is deeply embarrassing for Labour, and is a tragedy for the city centre workers and shoppers as the Swansea high street takes another blow.”

The Liberal Democrats say they have long called for cheaper and easier parking to encourage city centre use, alongside reforms to business rates and VAT cuts to support high street retailers.

Torsten Bell, Labour MP for Swansea West, struck a more conciliatory tone, expressing “deep disappointment” at the closure and focusing on the impact on staff and customers.

“This decision will be a blow to the many loyal customers who regularly use the store, and for the dedicated employees, some who have worked for M&S over many years,” Mr Bell said.

“They need to be shown the dignity and respect they deserve, while it’s vital they are treated fairly during this difficult time. I have already contacted Senior M&S Managers, with a meeting arranged for next Friday to discuss this further.”

Mr Bell noted the closure comes “at a time when the City Centre has seen huge regeneration at key sites and more top retailers showing confidence in Swansea.”

Sioned Williams MS, Plaid Cymru Member of the Senedd for South Wales West, drew parallels with M&S’s departure from Neath in May 2024, saying the closures represent more than just job losses.

“As with Marks and Spencer’s departure from Neath in May 2024, this is more than losing a job or losing a shop, it’s losing a piece of local history,” she said.

“The Oxford Street store is an important part of many people’s lives, not least for the 92 who work there currently. During its 100 year presence in Swansea, there will have been people who have given their working lives to this store and loyal customers who have helped build this company’s multimillion pound profits.”

Ms Williams said she had written to the Welsh Government asking what support will be offered to staff, and will be writing to M&S to urge them to retain a full-line store in the area.

“I’m glad to see the company not ruling out maintaining a presence in Swansea, but that location should be in the city centre, and not out of town,” she added.

The closure announcement has raised questions about the effectiveness of Swansea Council’s regeneration strategy, which has seen millions of pounds invested in projects including the Copr Bay arena, the new library and museum complex, and the ongoing Yr Storfa development.

M&S has indicated it is considering alternative locations in the Swansea area, but has not confirmed whether any replacement store would be in the city centre or at an out-of-town retail park.

The Oxford Street store, which has traded for nearly 100 years, is expected to close later in 2026, with staff consultations now underway.

THE £14BN RAIL ROW: Swansea West MP hails ‘generational’ investment—but Lib Dems claim city has been ‘abandoned’

Swansea West MP Torsten Bell has moved to reassure residents that the city is at the heart of a long-awaited £14 billion rail upgrade pipeline. The plan, endorsed by the Prime Minister and First Minister, crucially includes the Swansea Bay Metro, a new station in Cockett, and the long-campaigned-for electrification of the main line beyond Cardiff to Swansea.

‘At Last’: Swansea Featured Heavily

Mr Bell, who also serves as a UK Treasury Minister, claims to have helped secure Swansea’s place in the multi-billion pound vision. He argues that the new pipeline marks the end of years of “underinvestment” by previous governments.

Torsten Bell MP said:

“Swansea has been let down by years of underinvestment in our rail system. I’m proud to play a part in putting that right. Securing this major step forward for Swansea has been a top priority for me from day one.”

The ‘Swansea Bay Metro’ Vision

Documents released by Transport for Wales (TfW) reveal the scale of the ambition for the region. The proposed Swansea Bay and West Wales Metro includes:

• Seven New Stations: Locations including Cockett, Landore, and Winch Wen are slated for development to better connect local communities.
• Increased Frequency: New Metro services running initially every 30 minutes, with the potential to increase to four trains per hour.
• Regional Upgrades: A new half-hourly service between Swansea and Pembrey & Burry Port, and a new station at St Clears in West Wales.
• Electrification: A “step-by-step” programme to decarbonise the rail network across the Swansea Bay area.

‘Jam Tomorrow’ or Real Investment?

However, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have hit back, branding the announcement as “falsely claiming” a £14 billion commitment. They point out that while the pipeline is valued at £14bn, the actual confirmed funding from last summer’s Spending Review is just £445 million—almost all of which is concentrated in the Cardiff and Newport corridor.

Sam Bennett, Lib Dem candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, said:

“Swansea is Wales’ second city, yet it has been completely overlooked while funding is concentrated almost entirely around Cardiff. Announcing big projects without the funding to deliver them is exactly the kind of politics people are fed up with.”

The Funding Dispute

A spokesperson for Mr Bell’s office clarified that while funding is confirmed in individual Spending Reviews, this is the first time a UK government has committed to a long-term pipeline developed alongside the Welsh Government. They argue that this promise should be judged on the current government’s “record of actually delivering.”

The Liberal Democrats remain unconvinced, highlighting the lack of a “firm commitment” to a specific date for the electrification of the line to Swansea—a move local businesses say is essential for the success of the ports at Port Talbot and Milford Haven.

Is this a ‘game-changer’ for Swansea or just more empty promises? Have your say below.

Swansea councillor warns Welsh pubs risk being ‘left behind’ as business rates row deepens

Welsh Liberal Democrat councillor, Sam Bennett — who represents Swansea’s Waterfront ward and is standing for the Senedd in Gŵyr Abertawe — said ministers must “urgently change course” to stop Welsh venues being placed at a competitive disadvantage.

The row erupted after the UK Chancellor announced extra relief for pubs and music venues in England, cutting an average £1,650 from their bills next year. The support does not apply in Wales, and the Welsh Government has yet to confirm whether it will introduce a similar scheme.

When pressed in the Senedd by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds, the First Minister declined to commit to matching the English package, saying she needed to examine the details first.

Bennett said that hesitation was already causing alarm among Swansea Bay businesses facing rising costs, staff shortages and falling footfall.

Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“Pubs and hospitality businesses are at the heart of our communities, but too many are being pushed to the brink. Scaling back business rates relief now would be a serious mistake.

Support cannot stop at pubs alone. Cafés, restaurants and other hospitality businesses are facing exactly the same pressures.”

Industry leaders warn Wales is becoming uncompetitive

Concerns over Wales’ business rates system intensified this week after a BBC report highlighted the widening gap between Wales and England.

The broadcaster spoke to Philip Thomas, Wales director of the Society of Independent Brewers, who said his Treforest brewery would pay no business rates at all if it were located just across the border in Somerset.

Thomas warned that the disparity was “impacting on our ability to compete”, with English rivals — who pay nothing — selling beer into Welsh pubs.

His comments echo growing frustration across the sector as new valuations and the end of pandemic‑era relief push bills sharply higher from April.

Analysis by UK Hospitality shows the sector’s business rates bill in Wales is set to rise from £83.1m this year to £135.7m by 2028‑29.

Political pressure grows — even within Labour

The political tension deepened after Gower MP Tonia Antoniazzi, who chairs Westminster’s All‑Party Parliamentary Beer Group, publicly welcomed the Chancellor’s decision to cut business rates for English pubs.

She said she had been “pushing for pubs to get a fairer deal” and thanked the Chancellor for listening — but made no reference to Wales, where pubs will not receive the same support unless the Welsh Government chooses to replicate it.

Welsh Government: ‘More to say soon’

A Welsh Government spokesperson said ministers were finalising plans for additional support and would announce details soon.

They insisted that almost half of Welsh pubs already receive Small Business Rates Relief, and more than a quarter pay no rates at all.

But Bennett said Swansea Bay businesses cannot wait much longer for clarity.

Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“Without urgent action, we risk losing viable, well‑loved businesses that communities in Swansea Bay simply cannot afford to lose.”

Labour accused of dirty tricks as row over future of Maesteg Hospital intensifies

Concerns about the hospital have been building for months as Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board develops plans for a new Health and Wellbeing Centre for the Llynfi Valley. The board says it has access to around £30 million of Welsh Government funding to expand local services, but that the existing hospital site cannot be redeveloped within that budget. That position has fuelled fears about the loss of beds, the future of the building and whether the community is being properly consulted.

The latest flashpoint came after Labour representatives claimed that protest organisers, including Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate Dean Ronan, had “declined to engage” with the health board. The allegation appeared in a series of letters signed by Huw Irranca‑Davies MS, David Rees MS, Stephen Kinnock MP and local councillors, who accused some campaigners of “politicising” the issue.

Labour representatives wrote:

We now understand that you have indeed reached out to the main organisers – including a candidate for the Liberal Democrats – and they have declined to engage with you.

They also warned that the £30 million investment must not be put at risk.

Labour representatives wrote:

We certainly do not want to lose the £30m which Welsh Government have already put forward… this matter is of such huge importance it should be well beyond party politics.

Dean Ronan has rejected the claim outright, saying he has never been contacted by the health board and could not have refused a meeting that was never offered.

Dean Ronan, Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate, said:

Not once have I been contacted about the future of Maesteg Hospital. I could not have declined a meeting that was never offered. If Labour or the health board have evidence to the contrary, they should publish it immediately.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats say the campaign to protect the hospital has always been community‑led and cross‑party, involving the League of Friends, independent councillors and Plaid Cymru candidates. They argue that the focus should be on the future of services, not political point‑scoring.

David Chadwick MP, Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson, said:

This looks like a classic dirty tricks operation — brief against local campaigners, make untrue claims, and hope nobody challenges them.

On Sunday, Dean Ronan issued a new public statement confirming that he had been invited to meet Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca‑Davies to discuss the future of healthcare in Maesteg. He said he was open to meeting, but only if a public apology was issued for what he described as “false statements” made about him earlier in the week.

Dean Ronan, Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate, said:

I informed Huw that I would be open to meeting with him and sharing my views, on the condition that a public apology was issued by himself and the local councillors who attached their names to false statements made about me earlier this week. I was told that Huw would not issue a public apology, as he did not wish to focus on ‘politics or personalities’. As a result, I have declined the meeting.”

He said the issue was not political, but personal.

Mr Ronan added:

Morally, it does not sit right with me to allow lies to be told or left unchallenged. These are my values as a person, not a political position. The people of Maesteg deserve representatives who are honest and transparent at all times. Integrity and honesty matter more to me than any party policy.”

He added that he remained open to dialogue if a public apology was issued.

What the health board says it is planning

Behind the political row sits a much larger debate about what the health board is proposing for the Llynfi Valley.

The board says it wants to deliver a wider range of services locally, including urgent care, expanded outpatient clinics, mental health support, integrated community teams and space for third‑sector wellbeing organisations. It argues that these improvements cannot be delivered within the existing hospital buildings, which would cost at least £42 million to redevelop and potentially up to £48 million if further structural issues are uncovered.

A spokesperson for Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board said:

We have not taken any decisions to close Maesteg Hospital or sell the site. Whatever the future holds for this important, much‑loved building will take into account the views of local people and the heritage of the site.

The board says it is exploring a potential new site near Ewenny Road, close to Maesteg town centre and the railway station, because it offers better access and can accommodate the size of building required for modern services. It also says it is considering alternatives to hospital‑based community beds, including block‑booking beds in local nursing homes for rehabilitation, reablement and palliative care.

The health board said in its latest update:

Local people who are anxious about the future deserve the facts. We will continue to meet with representatives and provide information through other means.

Calls for transparency and engagement

Labour representatives say they share concerns about the future of the hospital building and have urged the board to protect the site’s heritage. They argue that the building is iconic and must not be left “empty or unloved”.

Labour representatives wrote:

There is no‑one in these communities who would allow this iconic building to lie empty or unloved or unused.

They also said they have pressed the health board to meet urgently with the League of Friends and all elected representatives, and that the board has now agreed to do so.

The health board says it has already held engagement events and will carry out further public consultation once more detailed work on both the existing site and the potential new site is complete. A decision on the preferred location is expected in early 2026.

For now, the political row continues to overshadow the process, with both sides accusing the other of misrepresenting the facts. What remains clear is that the future of Maesteg Hospital — its services, its beds and its building — has become one of the most contentious local issues in years, and the community is demanding answers.

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales

The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Plaid climbing to 37% of the vote — fourteen points clear of Reform UK — in a result that would trigger the biggest political shake‑up since devolution began in 1999.

Reform drops to 23%, the Greens leap to a record 13%, and Labour slumps to just 10%, its lowest Senedd rating ever recorded. The Conservatives also sit at 10%, leaving Wales’ two traditional governing parties tied for fourth place.

Under Wales’ new 96‑member Senedd, the figures would translate to Plaid winning 45 seats, just four short of an outright majority. Reform would take 23, the Greens 11, Labour eight and the Conservatives six.

Labour collapse deepens as Greens surge

The poll confirms a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics. Labour, which has dominated every Welsh election since 1922, now risks losing power for the first time in the history of devolution.

The Greens, meanwhile, record their strongest ever Welsh performance, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives for the first time.

Reform UK, which had been neck‑and‑neck with Plaid throughout 2025, sees its support fall sharply.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales)

Fieldwork: 5–12 January 2026 • Wales • % of vote

Source: YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, January 2026.

Young voters break decisively with Labour as Greens and Plaid dominate

The raw YouGov data reveals a dramatic generational divide that cuts to the heart of Wales’ political realignment. Among 16 to 24‑year‑olds, the Greens now lead the field on 43%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 42% — a combined 85% share that leaves the traditional parties almost nowhere.

Reform UK records just 6% among young voters, while Labour slumps to 4%, its weakest demographic performance in the entire poll.

The picture among older voters is far more fragmented. In the 65+ group, Plaid Cymru leads on 29%, with Reform UK close behind on 28%. The Conservatives remain competitive at 19%, while Labour manages 13% and the Greens fall to 4%.

The figures underline the scale of Labour’s challenge. The party that once dominated every age group in Wales is now squeezed from both sides — losing younger voters to Plaid and the Greens, and older voters to Reform and the Conservatives.

They also highlight the depth of Plaid Cymru’s surge. The party is now ahead among older voters and competitive among the youngest, a rare position in Welsh politics and one that strengthens its path to becoming the largest party in May.

Senedd voting intention — Age 16–24

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 25–49

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 50–64

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 65+

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

“A substantial shift” says leading academic

Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14‑point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention. While any single poll should come with a health warning, it continues broader trends in Welsh polling, where Plaid have enjoyed a modest boost and the Greens have surged.

He said the gains for Plaid and the Greens appear to be coming from previously undecided voters, and that Plaid is now seen by a majority of respondents as the party best placed to challenge Reform.

Parties react as campaign pressure intensifies

Plaid Cymru said the poll confirms the election is now a straight fight between them and Reform, claiming more voters are backing the party’s “positive vision for Wales”.

Welsh Labour said it was focused on “helping make people’s lives better”, while accusing Plaid of returning to its independence plans without explaining how they would be funded.

Westminster shock as Plaid overtakes Reform

The poll also shows Plaid now leading Westminster voting intention in Wales, rising to 29% and overtaking Reform on 25%. Labour collapses to 13%, with the Conservatives and Greens tied on 12%.

The shift follows Plaid’s by‑election victory in Caerphilly last autumn and rising approval for party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Wales heading for its most unpredictable election

With four months to go, the poll suggests Wales could be on the verge of a political realignment not seen in a generation. A Plaid Cymru First Minister is now a realistic prospect, with the party potentially able to govern with only Green support.

Reform UK remains a serious contender for official opposition, while Labour faces the possibility of losing power for the first time since devolution.

The poll surveyed 1,220 adults for Senedd voting intention and 1,205 adults for Westminster voting intention between 5 and 12 January.

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Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

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Banking lifeline finally opens in Ystradgynlais after three‑year fight

After years without a single bank on the high street, Ystradgynlais residents can at last walk through the doors of a permanent banking hub. The new facility on Commercial Street is the result of a dogged three‑year campaign that saw locals, businesses and community leaders refuse to take “no” for an answer.

The town was left high and dry in 2023 when Lloyds shut its branch despite posting record profits. Public meetings followed, petitions were signed, and applications were lodged with LINK — the body that decides where hubs go. The first bid was rejected, but campaigners pushed back, challenging the data and dragging regulators to Ystradgynlais to see the need for themselves.

That persistence paid off. A temporary hub opened in May, and now a permanent site has been unveiled at 14 Commercial Street, SA9 1HD.

How the hub will serve the town

After years of being left without a single counter service, locals can now walk into the new Commercial Street hub and deal with real people again. Doors are open Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm, with different banks taking turns to staff the desks.

• Mondays bring Barclays back to town, giving customers face‑to‑face access that vanished when branches closed.
• Tuesdays are still waiting for a banker to be confirmed, but campaigners say it’s only a matter of time before another name is added.
• Midweek sees Lloyds return on Wednesdays, a striking turnaround after the bank pulled out of Ystradgynlais in 2023.
• HSBC takes the Thursday slot, offering services to residents who once had to travel miles for help.
• Fridays finish with Halifax on hand, rounding off the week with another big name back on the high street.

Victory after years of pressure

The fight to bring banking back to Ystradgynlais wasn’t easy. Applications were rejected, data was disputed, and regulators had to be shown around the town to see the need first‑hand.

At the opening, local MP David Chadwick called it “fantastic news for Ystradgynlais” and reflected on the long road to success:

“After months of pressure, rejected applications and persistent campaigning, including personally showing the Banking Hub regulator around our vibrant town, I’m delighted we’ve secured a permanent, long‑term hub on Commercial Street.

“I launched this campaign to make sure communities like Ystradgynlais and the surrounding area aren’t cut off from essential services.

“Securing a permanent Banking Hub is a major step in ensuring our towns remain supported, connected and able to thrive.

“I will continue pushing to ensure that facilities like this remain protected and that no community in our area is left behind.”

Senedd Member Jane Dodds also welcomed the news, adding:

“Access to banking is not a luxury; it is a necessity, particularly for older residents, small businesses, and those who rely on cash. This hub will make a real and lasting difference.”

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Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

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New figures reveal Wales set to lose £6bn in rail funding row

Billions lost, investment bypasses rural Wales

Wales is set to miss out on another £1.3–£1.6 billion in transport funding after the UK Labour Government confirmed Northern Powerhouse Rail will go ahead as an “England and Wales” project.

The scheme, designed to link Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, will not include a single centimetre of track in Wales. By classifying it as “England and Wales”, the Treasury avoids triggering Barnett consequentials that would have delivered funding for Welsh rail.

It follows similar decisions on HS2, the high‑speed line between London, Birmingham and Manchester, and East‑West Rail, which links Oxford and Cambridge. Together, those projects have already cost Wales up to £4.3 billion in lost investment. Combined, campaigners say Wales could now be short by around £6 billion.

Scotland and Northern Ireland cash in

While Wales is left empty‑handed, Scotland is set to receive £2.7 billion and Northern Ireland just under £1 billion as a result of Northern Powerhouse Rail.

A Treasury spokesperson said:

“Wales will benefit from £445 million of rail investment over the next decade — the biggest ever funding boost for Welsh rail.”

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has also defended the classification of projects like HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail as “England and Wales” schemes, arguing that Wales benefits indirectly from improved connections across the UK rail network.

Welsh Government stresses cooperation

First Minister Eluned Morgan said:

“We will continue to press for further commitments, including electrification of the North and South Mainlines, which remain vital for Wales’s future.”

She added that the settlement would deliver “significant extra investment in rail infrastructure” and emphasised the need for cooperation between governments.

Opposition parties cry foul

Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said:

“Wales is owed billions from HS2 and now Northern Powerhouse Rail. Labour has failed to address chronic underfunding of our railways, and our communities are paying the price.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also accused Labour of leaving Wales “short‑changed again” and said the First Minister had “no influence” over her Westminster colleagues.

Lib Dems demand devolved powers

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said:

“This Labour Government is deliberately depriving Welsh communities of billions of pounds in transport funding, whilst expecting a pat on the back for delivering crumbs.

Labour has the power to change the system and stop these funding scandals, but has made its position clear — they are happy for Wales to be left behind, paying for megaprojects in England whilst our own rail and transport infrastructure collapses.”

Mid and West Wales left behind

Local campaigners say the funding gap is most keenly felt in Mid and West Wales, where rail services remain patchy and major projects have stalled.

Carl Peters‑Bond, independent candidate for the new Caerfyrddin constituency in next year’s Senedd elections, said:

“We’re told Wales is getting investment, but Mid and West Wales see none of it. Communities from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth are crying out for rail connectivity, yet billions are being spent on lines hundreds of miles away. It’s a betrayal of rural Wales.

Both Westminster and Cardiff need to stop playing politics and start building the infrastructure our communities desperately need. People here don’t want excuses — they want action.”

West Wales line campaign highlights the gap

The row comes just days after campaigners renewed calls for funding to restore the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line, axed in the 1960s.

As Swansea Bay News reported at the weekend, supporters say reopening the line would transform connectivity across West Wales, boost the economy, and cut car dependency. Campaigners argue that the billions Wales is missing out on could easily fund projects like the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, yet instead the money is being spent on rail schemes in England.

Creaking infrastructure, growing anger

With rail electrification stalled and public transport under strain, campaigners warn the funding gap leaves Wales at risk of falling further behind.

The row adds to growing pressure on Labour to explain why Wales is repeatedly excluded from consequential funding, while neighbouring nations benefit.

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Autumn Budget 2025: Welsh parties clash over Reeves’s plans

Labour claims progress, opposition cries foul

Welsh Labour were quick to claim victory on one of their long‑standing demands: the scrapping of the two‑child benefit cap. First Minister Eluned Morgan said the change would lift support for 69,000 children in Wales, describing it as “helping to tackle the scourge of child poverty.” Labour also pointed to nearly £1bn in additional funding for the Welsh Government, which ministers say will bolster public services and allow investment in steel transition at Port Talbot, AI Growth Zones, and nuclear energy at Wylfa.

Plaid Cymru, however, accused Westminster of once again failing to deliver fair funding. Treasury spokesperson Ben Lake MP said the Budget “proves that when Westminster does the counting, Wales always loses out,” highlighting the absence of Barnett consequentials from major rail projects and warning that employer National Insurance increases would hit Welsh services hard. Plaid also criticised the First Minister’s response, claiming she had “no influence” over the UK Government’s decisions.

Conservatives, Reform and Lib Dems sharpen attacks

The Conservatives seized on the Budget’s chaotic delivery and its tax implications. UK leader Kemi Badenoch told MPs there was “no growth and no plan,” branding the episode a “circus” and accusing Reeves of breaking promises by extending the freeze on tax thresholds. Welsh Conservatives echoed the criticism, calling for a review of Wales’s fiscal framework and warning that inheritance tax changes and higher employer National Insurance would damage family farms and businesses.

Reform UK Wales went further, describing the Budget as proof that “having Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 has been a disaster.” The party said Reeves’s measures would take taxes to “post‑WW2 highs,” framing the upcoming elections as a choice between Plaid Cymru, whom they accused of backing Labour’s tax rises, and Reform as “a new hope for left behind communities.”

The Liberal Democrats also joined the chorus of criticism. Party leader Ed Davey said Reeves “has diagnosed the disease but not administered the cure,” arguing that “you can’t tax your way to growth” and calling for a new trade deal with Europe. Former pensions minister Steve Webb added that the extended tax threshold freeze would drag hundreds of thousands more pensioners into paying income tax, warning of a growing burden on older households.

Together, the reactions underline how Reeves’s Budget has become a political battleground in Wales: Labour presenting it as a progressive step for families and public services, while opposition parties line up to portray it as chaotic, unfair, and economically damaging.

For a full breakdown of the Budget measures and their impact in Wales, read our explainer here.

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Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back in new Senedd poll

From three‑way squeeze to Reform lead

Just a month ago, Swansea Bay News reported on a YouGov survey that suggested a three‑way squeeze at the top of Welsh politics, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck‑and‑neck and Labour slumping to a historic low. The latest Barn Cymru/Beaufort Research poll, however, points to a decisive shift.

Reform UK has surged to 30% of the vote, pulling clear of its rivals and establishing itself as the largest party in Wales. Labour has edged back to 23%, recovering some ground but still far from its traditional dominance, while Plaid Cymru has slipped into third place on 22%. The Conservatives continue their downward slide, now on just 11%, while the Greens have quietly climbed to 9% — enough for a projected foothold in the Senedd under the new system.

When translated into seats under the new 96‑member system, the numbers would give Reform 37, Plaid 25, Labour 24, the Conservatives 7, the Greens 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1. That leaves no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority.

Coalition arithmetic

The most likely outcome on these figures would be a Plaid‑led coalition with Labour, which together would command 49 seats — just enough for a working majority. By contrast, a Reform‑Conservative bloc would fall short, with only 44 seats between them, leaving Reform as the largest party but unable to govern without further partners.

A Plaid‑Labour‑Green arrangement would be more comfortable at 51 seats, but it’s worth stressing that the Greens currently hold no seats in the Senedd — so any such deal would only be possible if they do indeed win representation next May.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Compared with our September projections, Reform strengthens in Swansea‑based constituencies, gaining an extra seat in both Gŵyr Abertawe and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Labour weakens in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, dropping from two seats to one, while Plaid picks up in Afan Ogwr Rhondda. The most dramatic change is in Ceredigion Penfro, where Plaid is now projected to take three seats, wiping out the Conservatives’ Pembrokeshire foothold.

Regional and demographic divides

The Beaufort poll also highlights sharp contrasts beneath the headline numbers. Reform’s surge is concentrated in Cardiff and South East Wales, where it polls 37%, while Plaid remains competitive in North and Mid Wales. In the South West and Valleys, the three main parties are tightly bunched, with Reform on 28%, Labour 26% and Plaid 25%.

Demographically, Reform’s support skews older and working‑class: it leads by a wide margin among voters aged 55+ and among those in the C2DE social grades. Labour and Plaid perform better among younger and professional voters, while the Greens’ rise is driven in part by stronger support among women.

Language also plays a role. Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid Cymru (45%), while non‑speakers tilt towards Reform (33%). This cultural divide underlines the different electoral coalitions each party is trying to build.

Caerphilly by‑election

The timing of the poll is significant. On Thursday, voters in Caerphilly will choose a new MS following the death of Labour’s Hefin David. Labour currently holds 30 of the 60 Senedd seats, relying on support from other parties — particularly the sole Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds — to pass legislation and the annual budget.

If Labour were to lose Caerphilly, its total would fall to 29 seats, making it much harder to govern. Even with Lib Dem support, the party would fall short of a working majority, forcing it to seek wider co‑operation with Plaid Cymru or others to get bills through. Local polling suggests the contest is shaping up as a two‑horse race between Reform and Plaid, underlining the scale of the threat to Labour’s hold on the seat.

Polling caveats

As with all opinion polls, these figures come with a margin of error — typically around three percentage points either way. Different polling companies also use different methods of weighting and sampling, which can produce variations in headline numbers. The contrast between September’s YouGov poll (which had Plaid narrowly ahead) and October’s Beaufort poll (which puts Reform clearly in front) is a reminder of that.

And, crucially, the next Senedd election is not until May 2026. With more than six months to go, voter sentiment can and will shift. These polls are a snapshot of opinion today, not a prediction of the final result.

Outlook: a fragmented Senedd ahead

Taken together, the September YouGov poll and the October Beaufort figures chart a rapid evolution in Welsh politics: from a three‑way squeeze to a Reform‑led race, with Plaid and Labour battling for second place and the Conservatives reduced to the margins. With no party projected to govern alone, the next Senedd looks set to be defined by coalition deals — and by whether Labour can steady its position in the months ahead.

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Welsh Lib Dems call on One‑Nation Conservatives to join them as party pitches to be new home of business

David Chadwick MP, speaking at the Welsh Liberal Democrat conference in Wrexham, accused the Conservatives of “disintegrating before our eyes” and abandoning their traditions of responsibility in favour of Reform UK‑style populism.

Chadwick attacks Conservatives over rule of law

In his keynote address, Chadwick pointed to Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch’s call for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights as proof that the Conservatives had “turned their backs on the rule of law and international cooperation.”

He also criticised talk of dismissing judges for supposed “activism”, describing it as “a government veering into anarchy while wearing a blue rosette.”

Pitch to business and entrepreneurs

Chadwick told delegates that as the Conservatives collapse, many moderate voters and entrepreneurs are searching for a political home that values both enterprise and fairness.

He argued that the Welsh Liberal Democrats are now the party of business and the economy, committed to free markets, free trade, and supporting small firms that drive local prosperity. The party, he said, would focus on cutting bureaucracy and post‑Brexit red tape, backing exporters, and creating conditions where innovation and investment can thrive alongside strong public services.

Call for ‘decent’ One‑Nation Conservatives to switch sides

Chadwick said the party would welcome anyone “who believes in decency, responsibility and a thriving private sector that serves communities, not just shareholders.”

“The Conservative Party that once stood for stability, enterprise and community no longer exists,” he said.

“It has been reduced to a hollow slogan machine, obsessed with culture wars, blind to community, and utterly lost on the economy.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats are ready to take up that mantle. We are the new party of business; pro‑market, pro‑enterprise, pro‑community.

“To every decent, One‑Nation Conservative in Wales: You don’t have to choose between extremism and irrelevance. If you still believe in fairness, in community, in the rule of law and responsibility, in building a Wales with a thriving private sector, there is a home for you here.”

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#CentristPolitics #conference #DavidChadwickMP #LibDems #LiberalDemocratPartyConference #OneNationConservatives #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Digital ID plans spark political row in Wales

UK Government sets out plan for smartphone IDs

The UK Government confirmed last week that a digital ID scheme will be rolled out before the next general election, due by 2029. Under the plans, every adult working in the UK will be required to hold a digital ID card stored on their smartphone.

The IDs will include details such as name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo. Ministers argue the system will make it harder for people without legal status to work, while also simplifying everyday checks for services such as driving licences, childcare and welfare.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the scheme would “make our borders more secure.”

🖥️ What is a digital ID?

Digital ID card
Stored on smartphones, showing name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo.

Purpose
Used for Right to Work checks and access to services like driving licences and childcare.

Rollout
UK Government says it will be introduced before the next general election, due by 2029.

Concerns
Critics warn of costs, civil liberties risks, and digital exclusion for those without smartphones.

First Minister backs rollout and demands Welsh flag on IDs

In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan has given her backing to the policy, telling BBC Wales she wants the Welsh flag to appear on IDs issued here.

“That is something that I’m definitely going to be pushing with the UK government,” she said.

Morgan added that she is pressing for additional funding to ensure the rollout does not disadvantage Wales.

Opposition brands digital ID a ‘red line’ for civil liberties

The proposals have been met with fierce criticism from opposition benches.

David Chadwick MP, who represents Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, described the idea of a mandatory digital ID as “crossing a red line.” He warned it risked undermining long‑standing civil liberties while doing little to fix problems in the immigration system.

Chadwick argued that the billions earmarked for the scheme would be better spent on clearing the asylum backlog through properly resourced processing centres, or on improving the NHS.

Welsh Conservatives have also voiced strong opposition. In the Senedd, Darren Millar MS challenged the First Minister to justify her support, claiming the scheme would cost Wales up to £1 billion in lost funding.

“Labour’s plans for digital IDs will not stop illegal migration and will come at an unacceptable cost to taxpayers,” he said.

Poll shows Wales more opposed than rest of UK

The debate comes against a backdrop of divided public opinion. A YouGov poll published on 26 September found 42% of people across Britain supported the introduction of digital ID cards, while 45% opposed them.

In Wales, opposition was stronger, with 35% of respondents saying they were “strongly opposed” compared to just 13% who strongly supported the idea.

Rollout due before 2029 with consultation promised

The UK Government insists the scheme will be free to download, with alternatives for those without smartphones, and says a public consultation later this year will help shape the design.

For now, though, the announcement has opened up a new political fault line in Wales, with the First Minister pressing for a Welsh‑branded rollout while her opponents warn of costs, risks and a loss of civil liberties.

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#CivilLiberties #DavidChadwickMP #DigitalID #ElunedMorganMS #FirstMinister #IDCard #KierStarmer #polling #PrimeMinister #UKGovernment #WelshConservatives #WelshFlag #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Wetsuit jibe lands Swansea MP in hot water with Lib Dems

The remark — captured on video and shared by ITV News Politics — has sparked a row, with the Welsh Liberal Democrats accusing Mr Bell of immaturity and hypocrisy.

Local criticism

In a statement, the party said that at a time when Swansea and Wales face challenges from the cost‑of‑living crisis to NHS waiting times and housing shortages, “playground insults” were not what people expected from their MP.

They also highlighted concerns that Mr Bell, who was selected for Swansea West last year, had “little connection to the community” and had focused more on building his Westminster profile than working with local groups.

Policy record challenged

The Lib Dems further accused Mr Bell of inconsistency on welfare policy. They pointed to comments he made at the Resolution Foundation, where he described the two‑child benefit cap as “immoral” and called for its abolition, contrasting this with his subsequent votes in Westminster to retain the cap.

Councillor’s response

Cllr Sam Bennett, a Swansea councillor and Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, said:

“Swansea expects more from someone in national office. Swansea West deserves an MP who works with the community and shows respect, not one who hides behind childish jibes.”

He added that the Liberal Democrats would continue to hold Labour to account on issues such as the two‑child benefit cap, Winter Fuel Allowance and river pollution “without descending into childish insults.”

Video clip

The moment Mr Bell made the remark was captured on camera and shared by ITV News Politics. You can view the clip below:

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1972349159006187924

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Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck as Labour slumps to historic low in new Senedd poll

The survey, commissioned by ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, projects a dramatic shift in Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. It suggests Plaid Cymru would secure 30% of the vote, with Reform UK close behind on 29%. Labour trails on just 14%, with the Conservatives on 11%, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 6%.

A Senedd without a majority

If repeated at the ballot box, the poll would leave Plaid Cymru with 38 seats and Reform UK with 37 in the expanded 96‑member Senedd. Labour would be reduced to just 11 seats, the Conservatives to six, with three for the Liberal Democrats and one for the Greens.

With no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority, the findings point to a hung Senedd and complex coalition negotiations after the next election. The most likely outcome remains a Plaid‑led coalition or working partnership with Labour, given their combined numbers and closer policy alignment.

Labour’s historic dominance under threat

Since the creation of the Senedd in 1999, Welsh Labour has been the controlling force in Cardiff Bay, leading every government and consistently emerging as the largest party. The new poll, however, puts Labour on just 14% — its lowest level of support since devolution.

The slump comes despite Labour’s landslide at July’s Westminster general election, where the party returned to power in London. Analysts suggest dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government’s early decisions, including its handling of issues such as support for Port Talbot steel, may be contributing to the party’s decline in Senedd voting intentions.

Small shifts, big consequences

The YouGov Barn Cymru poll provides vote share in percentages, which can then be modelled into projected seats. But under the Senedd’s new proportional system, even a tiny change in vote share could alter the way seats are divided. That makes the contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK — separated by just a single percentage point — especially significant.

Labour decisions fuel discontent in South West Wales

In South West Wales, the poll highlights how Labour’s recent decisions and controversies are shaping voter perceptions.

In Swansea, Labour largely held its ground at the general election, but the party faced criticism for parachuting in London‑based Torsten Bell as its Swansea West candidate. Now a minister in the Department for Work and Pensions, Bell has been closely associated with the UK Government’s proposed disability benefit cuts, a policy that has drawn sharp criticism from disability groups in Wales.

In Llanelli, Labour MS Lee Waters has faced sustained backlash for his role as transport minister, where he introduced the road‑building ban and the 20mph default speed limit. Both policies have proved deeply unpopular and continue to shape local perceptions of Labour in Carmarthenshire.

Reform UK has capitalised on this discontent. The party came within just 1,405 votes of unseating Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith in Llanelli at the general election, and has since built momentum with two county council by‑election wins in the town. Much of that rise stems from the Stradey Park Hotel migrant housing controversy, where Reform was highly visible in protests against plans to house asylum seekers, including visits by then party leader Richard Tice.

Taken together, these developments suggest Reform is embedding itself in Llanelli and Swansea, reshaping the political map in areas once considered Labour strongholds. Plaid Cymru remains competitive in Carmarthenshire, but the new proportional Senedd system means even small shifts in vote share could have significant consequences for all three parties.

Corbyn’s new party adds further risk for Labour

The poll also comes as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn launches a new left‑wing political movement with Coventry South MP Zarah Sultana. Though still unnamed, the party has already attracted support from Welsh figures including former Cynon Valley MP Beth Winter and ex‑PCS union leader Mark Serwotka.

The 2026 Senedd election will be the first held under Wales’ new closed‑list proportional representation system. Unlike systems where votes can transfer between ideologically similar parties, the closed list offers no such safety net. That means a vote for Corbyn’s party could reduce Labour’s seat share without boosting Plaid Cymru or other progressive parties.

Analysts warn that if Corbyn’s party polls even 5–10%, it could cost Labour and Plaid multiple seats — potentially handing Reform UK a clearer path to power.

What happens next

The Barn Cymru poll underlines just how volatile Welsh politics has become. For more than two decades, Labour has been the dominant force in Cardiff Bay, but its support has now slumped to unprecedented lows. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are locked in a contest that could reshape the Senedd, while the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn’s new party threatens to fragment the progressive vote even further.

With the 2026 election set to be the first fought under Wales’ new proportional system, even small shifts in support could have dramatic consequences for how seats are divided. What once looked like a predictable political landscape is now wide open — and South West Wales is likely to be at the heart of the battle.

Projected Senedd make‑up

Diagram: Projected Senedd make‑up under the new 96‑seat system, based on YouGov Barn Cymru polling. A dotted line shows the number of seats needed for a majority.

#GreenParty #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Two‑thirds in Wales think politicians are ‘out for themselves’, YouGov poll finds

The survey found 66% of Welsh respondents think politicians are “out merely for themselves” — almost identical to the UK‑wide figure of 67%. Just 4% in Wales believe politicians primarily act in the best interests of the country, while 20% think they put their party first.

Little change since 2022

The findings show attitudes in Wales are broadly in line with the rest of Britain and have barely shifted in the past three years.

Across the UK, the view that politicians act largely out of self‑interest is shared by majorities of voters for all parties — including 63% of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, 65% of Conservatives and 68% of Greens. Reform UK voters are the most sceptical, with 83% saying politicians are out for themselves.

A long‑term decline in trust

While the figures are stark, distrust in political motives is not new. In 1944, during the Second World War, Gallup found 36% of Britons believed politicians were trying to do what was best for the country, compared to 35% who thought they were out for themselves.

By 1972, the proportion who believed politicians acted in the national interest had fallen to 28%. In 2014, a YouGov poll put it at just 10%, with nearly half (48%) saying politicians acted mainly for themselves.

‘A major point of concern’

YouGov said the results underline the scale of the challenge facing anyone seeking to rebuild public trust in politics.

A spokesperson said:

“The lack of trust in politics has been a major point of concern in recent years, both in the UK and around the world. Central to that loss of trust is the question of what motivates politicians — and the public increasingly sees them as self‑interested.”

#PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Thousands of shoplifting cases go unsolved in South Wales and Dyfed‑Powys as charge rates remain low

House of Commons Library data obtained by the Welsh Liberal Democrats shows that in 2024‑25, 6,734 shoplifting investigations in South Wales and 946 in Dyfed‑Powys were closed with no suspect identified. That’s the equivalent of more than 21 incidents a day going unsolved across the two force areas combined.

South Wales Police recorded a charge rate of 25.3%, while Dyfed‑Powys Police charged or summoned suspects in just 13.6% of cases. Across Wales, 13,077 shoplifting investigations were closed without a suspect — around 35 a day.

The Liberal Democrats say the figures highlight the scale of the problem and the impact on local businesses, warning that shoplifting is “not a victimless crime” and that staff are increasingly at risk from persistent offenders.

David Chadwick MP, Welsh Liberal Democrat for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, said:

“These shameful figures show the impact years of cuts to our police by the Conservatives had on society. This Labour government must now right these wrongs and crack down on shoplifting. Shoplifting is at epidemic levels in Wales now, with many business owners feeling like it has all but been decriminalised and many retail staff increasingly being put in harm’s way.”

Cllr Sam Bennett, the party’s Senedd candidate for Gwyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower), added:

“Shoplifting is not a victimless crime; it does a huge amount of damage to our local businesses and those who work in them. It’s time for the government to scrap Police and Crime Commissioners and invest the money in frontline policing instead. That way we can get more bobbies on the beat and stop this lawlessness on our high streets.”

The party is calling for the role of Police and Crime Commissioners to be abolished, with the funds redirected to frontline policing.

Wider picture

Retail trade bodies have previously warned that rising shoplifting rates are linked to organised crime as well as opportunistic theft, and have called for tougher enforcement alongside better support for shop workers.

#DavidChadwickMP #DyfedPowysPolice #PoliceAndCrimeCommissioner #prosecution #SamBennett #shoplifting #SouthWalesPolice #WelshLiberalDemocrats

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate — new polling shows two very different futures for South West Wales

The latest Election Polling projection, based on late‑August Wales‑wide polling, updates the July MRP analysis we reported on 1  August. It confirms that Reform UK remains the leading party in nine of ten Westminster constituencies in the region, but also shows Labour clawing back small amounts of support in several key battlegrounds.

A tale of two systems

In Westminster terms, the numbers are brutal for Labour. Seats like Llanelli, Swansea West and Bridgend — once considered safe — would fall decisively to Reform UK, alongside gains from the Liberal Democrats in Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe. Even modest Reform leads in the low‑30s are enough to flip seats outright under first‑past‑the‑post.

But the picture changes dramatically when the same vote shares are run through the Senedd’s new proportional system. Here, Reform’s dominance is diluted: in most six‑member constituencies they take only two or three seats, with Labour and Plaid Cymru sharing the rest. Smaller parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats also pick up representation where their support is concentrated.

Momentum and movement

Compared with early July, Reform’s vote share has dipped by one or two points in several Westminster seats, while Labour has edged up by a similar margin. These are small shifts, but they suggest the party’s earlier slide may have bottomed out. Plaid Cymru’s position is steady in its rural heartlands, while the Conservatives remain stuck in single digits across most of the region.

In the Senedd projection, there are no changes in South West Wales seat allocations since the July‑based forecast — but the Wales‑wide totals now put Labour and Plaid on 54 seats combined, comfortably above the 49 needed for a majority. That would make a Labour–Plaid coalition the most likely outcome in Cardiff Bay, even as Reform tops the regional vote.

Westminster projections: Reform gains from Labour and Lib Dems

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Why it matters

The contrast between the two systems is stark. Under Westminster rules, Reform UK’s regional lead would translate into a historic series of gains, redrawing the political map of South West Wales almost overnight. Under the Senedd’s proportional system, the same vote shares would produce a far more balanced chamber — and potentially shut Reform out of government altogether.

For voters, it’s a reminder that how we vote can be just as decisive as who we vote for.

#Election #ParliamentaryElection #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #Voting #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Grassroots sports coach Dean Ronan to contest new Afan Ogwr Rhondda Senedd seat for Lib Dems

Dean Ronan, who grew up in the valleys and works with children in residential care, says his career has given him “direct insight into how underfunded services affect vulnerable families and young people.”

Away from the classroom, he has more than 15 years’ experience coaching rugby at all levels – from Maesteg Harlequins RFC to the Wales Women’s national team – and describes the sport as a vital way of building confidence and opportunity for young people.

Campaign priorities

Mr Ronan’s platform focuses on three main themes:

• Stronger communities – empowering councils, investing in public transport, and regenerating high streets in towns such as Maesteg, Tonypandy and Pontycymmer.
• Fairness and opportunity – tackling inequality in health, education and jobs, with targeted support for care leavers and rebuilding youth services.
• Inclusion through sport, culture and health – backing grassroots clubs, protecting leisure facilities such as Cymmer Pool, and promoting arts and culture across the valleys.

Launching his campaign at Maesteg Harlequins RFC, Mr Ronan said:

“I’ve lived here all my life and seen the positive impact supporting communities can have on people. We need to protect and improve our schools and hospitals, tackle the crisis in social care, breathe new life into our towns and villages, and ensure the local economy creates good, well‑paid jobs.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds MS welcomed his candidacy, saying his “strength and experience” would be an asset in next May’s elections, while deputy leader David Chadwick MP described him as “a true local champion” with valuable experience in education.

The party says recent polling suggests it has a realistic chance of winning the new seat, which spans parts of Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

Residents are invited to attend the campaign launch event at Maesteg Harlequins Rugby Club on Friday 29 August at 4pm.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #Bridgend #DeanRonan #JaneDoddsMS #Maesteg #MaestegHarlequinsRFC #NeathPortTalbot #SeneddElection #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Almost half of Brits say they would never swim in the sea – with the number rising sharply amid sewage scandal

The poll also found that less than a fifth (18%) of people say they would actually be more likely to swim in the sea if the Government meets its target of cutting spills in half.

Staggeringly, more people (19%) said even if the Government hit its target, they would actually be less likely to swim in the sea, with 45% of people saying they still would not swim in the sea.

People were also asked if they went swimming in the sea during the summer months and if they now would not due to sewage dumping. The poll found close to three in ten (29%) of those who said they go swimming in the sea now said they will not do it at all due to sewage dumping. This is a rise of six percentage points from 23% in just two years, when the same poll was conducted for the Liberal Democrats in 2023.

The Liberal Democrats said the figures laid bare a “coastline crisis” with people “afraid” of enjoying the British summertime due to rampant sewage dumping. The party said that the Government would not be able to end the sewage scandal without giving the planned new regulator the power to levy serious and higher fines and holding persistent sewage dumpers criminally responsible.

Previous data has shown that the Welsh coastal constituencies of Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Mid & South Pembrokeshire are all in the top 10 most sewage-polluted in the UK, with Ceredigion Preseli taking the number one spot. While the River Tawe was the most sewage-filled in Wales and one of the worst in the entire UK.

The same data also showed that Dwr Cymru was the worst offender of all water companies, despite its small size compared to many in England.

Commenting, Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower) and Swansea Waterfront Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“This coastline crisis threatens to wreck Welsh summers, with people afraid of swimming in the sea due to rampant sewage dumping. These polluting firms have been let off the hook at every turn, and it is our local environments and people’s summer holidays that are suffering the consequences.

“In communities like mine, the sewage crisis poses a serious risk not only to wildlife and human health, but also to our thriving tourism industry.

“Both the UK and Welsh Governments have failed to get to grips with this crisis, and the public expect more than a job half done.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats will be running on a platform to clean up our waterways for good at next year’s Senedd elections. That means a full ban on water company executive bonuses, higher and more persistent fines for breaches and for a strong regulatory body that actually enforces the rules.”

#DwrCymru #openWaterSwimming #sewage #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Welsh Government under pressure over paramedic recruitment shortfall

Concerns have been raised over a major shortfall in paramedic recruitment in Wales, with just 20 of this year’s 67 graduates set to be hired by the Welsh Ambulance Service — despite the service requesting 86 new recruits through Welsh Government funding.

The figures, revealed by Swansea Liberal Democrat Councillor and Senedd candidate Sam Bennett, have sparked criticism from opposition parties who say the decision undermines efforts to improve ambulance response times and risks wasting public investment in training.

Bennett, who is standing for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea West & Gower), said:

“We cannot afford to lose these highly skilled professionals, especially not at a time when the NHS is under this much pressure.”

“It is shocking that despite funding 87 paramedic students, less than half will be recruited. That so few are to be hired is a scandal.”

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling on the Welsh Labour Government to urgently intervene and create more posts to absorb the newly qualified paramedics.

According to the latest performance data, 51% of red calls — the most life-threatening emergencies — are not being met within target times, while 33% of amber calls, which include heart attacks and strokes, are taking longer than an hour to respond to.

Party leader Jane Dodds MS added:

“The NHS is our top priority. Having already paid for the training, it’s a no-brainer that the Welsh Government should seize this opportunity to give paramedics more support and resources.”

The Welsh Government has not yet issued a formal response to the figures, but Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care Jeremy Miles has reportedly confirmed the numbers in correspondence with the party.

The Welsh Ambulance Service has faced sustained pressure in recent years, with staff describing the job as “soul-destroying” amid long delays, staffing shortages, and rising demand.

#ambulance #JaneDoddsMS #paramedicRecruitment #paramedics #SamBennett #WelshAmbulanceServiceTrust #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

New polling shows Reform UK still leading in South West Wales — but Labour gains

New constituency-level analysis from YouGov’s July 2025 MRP polling confirms that Reform UK continues to lead in South West Wales, but small vote share shifts point to signs of life for Labour in several key seats.

The updated data follows Swansea Bay News’ original projection last month based on an MRP forecast by research group More in Common, which charted Reform UK’s dramatic rise across the region. While the new numbers show the party maintaining its hold in nine of ten constituencies, Labour has recovered modest ground — most notably in Llanelli and Swansea West.

The full breakdown is shown below, with vote share changes since the previous projection in early July:

Westminster projections: Reform gains hold, Labour rebounds slightly

Reform UK’s overall vote share remains robust, but Labour has managed to reverse some of its earlier decline. The Green Party also shows slight upward movement, particularly in Swansea West and Neath & Swansea East. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain in single digits across most seats, with Plaid Cymru continuing to defend its heartland constituencies in Caerfyrddin and Ceredigion Preseli.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

A parallel projection for the 2026 Senedd election, using the D’Hondt method to allocate seats across newly drawn regional boundaries, reveals that Reform UK is poised to win at least two seats in every South West Wales region.

While there are no changes in overall seat allocation since the previous projection, a Green gain in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd suggests growing support among progressive voters under the new proportional system.

Momentum holds — but the race tightens

The broader trend is clear: Reform UK remains dominant across South West Wales, particularly in seats with high anti-incumbent sentiment. Labour’s gains, though limited, indicate potential for a more competitive landscape — particularly if national party dynamics shift.

Plaid Cymru continues to hold ground in its strongholds but faces growing pressure from both Reform and Labour. Smaller parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats may benefit from increased voter awareness of the Senedd’s proportional system, especially in more urban regions.

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New polling shows Reform surge – redrawing the political map in South West Wales

A new MRP forecast by research group More in Common suggests Reform UK is now the dominant political force across South West Wales, overtaking Labour in multiple constituencies and setting the stage for a dramatic shift in both Westminster and Senedd representation.

The July 2025 model, based on polling of over 10,000 UK adults, projects Reform UK to win 290 seats nationally, with Labour trailing on 126 and the Conservatives collapsing to 81. But the most striking changes are happening closer to home—particularly in Llanelli, where a once-safe Labour seat is now projected to fall decisively to Reform.

Westminster Projections: Reform Gains Across the Region

Llanelli: A Case Study in Reform’s Rise

The most symbolic shift is in Llanelli, where Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith is now projected to lose her seat to Reform UK by a 29-point margin. This follows a series of local breakthroughs:

• In 2024, Gareth Beer of Reform UK came within a few hundred votes of unseating Griffith.
• In May 2025, Michelle Beer, Gareth’s wife, won a landslide victory in the Lliedi ward of Carmarthenshire County Council, defeating Labour by over 250 votes (full story).
• The Beers’ growing local profile has made Llanelli a bellwether for Reform’s national momentum.

Reform’s Local Ground Game: Beyond Llanelli

Reform’s rise isn’t limited to Llanelli. In Bridgend, the party recently won a council by-election in Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr, beating Labour by just 30 votes (coverage). That victory, combined with the MRP projection of a 22-point lead in the parliamentary seat, suggests a deep shift in voter sentiment.

What This Means for the 2026 Senedd Election

The next Senedd election will be the first under a new proportional voting system, with 96 MSs elected from 16 six-member constituencies. Based on current polling, Reform UK is projected to win the most seats in the Senedd—but not a majority.

According to Swansea Bay News’s earlier analysis (read more), the most likely outcome remains a Plaid–Labour coalition, despite Reform’s lead in vote share. This is due to the proportional system rewarding broad but balanced support across constituencies.

Updated Senedd Projections for Swansea Bay Region

These estimates reflect the July 2025 MRP vote shares applied to the D’Hondt method. Final outcomes will depend on turnout, candidate lists, and campaign dynamics.

A Region in Political Flux

The combined effect of Westminster polling, local by-election results, and Senedd projections suggests South West Wales is undergoing a historic political realignment:

• Reform UK is now the leading party in most local constituencies
• Labour’s dominance is eroding, especially in working-class and post-industrial areas
• Plaid Cymru remains strong in rural constituencies but is not expanding beyond its base
• The Conservatives risk being wiped out in several seats unless they reverse their polling decline

For more on how these changes could affect your community, follow the Politics section of Swansea Bay News.

#Election #MoreInCommon #ParliamentaryElection #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Swansea Labour MPs told to ‘grow a backbone’ over welfare cuts

108 Labour MPs have signed an amendment to the Government’s welfare reform bill declining to give the welfare reform Bill a second reading when it returns to the Commons on 1 July.

The amendment recognised the “need for the reform of the social security system” but called on MPs to continue scrutinising the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill “because the Government’s own impact assessment estimates that 250,000 people will be pushed into poverty as a result of these provisions, including 50,000 children”.

If the 108 rebel Labour MP’s amendment was supported by opposition MPs, then this would be enough to defeat the Government’s plans.

Campaigners have criticised the lack of public consultation with disabled people of the plans, particularly in Wales saying there is a “growing atmosphere of fear and anger” about the proposals.

It has been revealed that just 3 Welsh Labour MPs have supported the amendment, Steve Witherden for Montgomeryshire, Ruth Jones for Newport West and Henry Tufnell for Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

The Liberal Democrats have criticised the lack of Welsh Labour’s MPs from Swansea and the Gower or Neath signing the amendment despite it saying the region is set to be badly hit.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe Sam Bennett has said that that Swansea’s Labour MPs need to “grow a backbone and stand up for the interests of their constituents”, pointing to evidence they uncovered last month showing that Wales is set to be the worst hit by Labour’s welfare cuts.

In both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, at least 90% of people claiming the standard rate of Personal Independence Payment for daily living activities are at risk of losing at least some of the payment.

The Liberal Democrats say they have repeatedly criticised the proposed cuts to PIP payments and attempts by those in Labour and the Conservatives to mislead the public into thinking these are unemployment benefits when, in fact, the payment supports many disabled people staying in work.

The Party say they have also highlighted how Torsten Bell, MP for Swansea West and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Pensions, opposed welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but is now supporting them as a Government minister.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Gower and Swansea) Sam Bennett said: “Swansea and Neath’s Labour MPs really need to grow a backbone and do what is right for their constituents and for Wales.

“Torsten Bell was happy to oppose welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but now, when he’s been parachuted into Swansea and in a position to do something, he is silent.

“We all agree that welfare fraud should be tackled, but that’s not what the proposed changes do. Instead, they will cut the support that helps people with daily tasks that many of us would take for granted, such as staying clean or staying safe.

“This support actually helps many disabled people stay in work.

“I think it’s disgraceful that our area is set to be one of the hardest hit, yet none of our Labour MPs are willing to speak out.

“If these cuts go ahead, all it will do is move the financial burden onto local council services and charities, which have already been cut to the bone and are struggling to make ends meet. The Liberal Democrats will continue to oppose these cuts.”

#benefits #DWP #SamBennett #TorstenBell #UKGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats