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SIR GAERFYRDDIN: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out — Adam Price returns to the Senedd

Reform UK and Plaid Cymru have taken three Sir Gaerfyrddin seats each in a knife-edge result that ends Welsh Labour’s representation in Carmarthenshire entirely.

The result, declared this afternoon at the Carmarthenshire count, marks Reform UK’s first ever Senedd breakthrough in west Wales – and represents an historic collapse for Welsh Labour in a region it has long counted among its strongholds.

Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 36,160 votes, ahead of Reform UK on 27,542. Welsh Labour received 6,458 votes – a fraction of its previous performance in the area.

Plaid Cymru’s Cefin Campbell topped the poll, taking the first seat. Reform UK’s Gareth Beer took the second – becoming the first Reform UK Member of the Senedd ever elected in west Wales.

Plaid’s Nerys Evans took the third seat, with Reform’s Carmelo Colasanto taking the fourth.

The fifth seat went to Adam Price – the former Plaid Cymru leader and former MS for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr – marking his return to the Senedd.

The sixth and final seat went to Reform UK’s Sarah Edwards, after going to a recount with the margin understood to be around 140 votes.

Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives and other parties failed to secure a single seat in the constituency.

The six new Sir Gaerfyrddin Members of the Senedd will be:

• Cefin Campbell (Plaid Cymru)
• Gareth Beer (Reform UK)
• Nerys Evans (Plaid Cymru)
• Carmelo Colasanto (Reform UK)
• Adam Price (Plaid Cymru)
• Sarah Edwards (Reform UK)

Adam Price’s return to the Senedd is one of the most significant individual stories of the day. The veteran Plaid politician, who previously served as MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr before becoming MS for the same area, stepped down as Plaid Cymru leader in 2023.

His return – via Plaid’s Sir Gaerfyrddin list – gives Plaid Cymru one of its most experienced political operators back at Cardiff Bay. Price had originally been selected third on Plaid’s list, meaning his election demonstrates just how strongly the party performed in the constituency.

l-r) Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and Adam Price celebrate at the Sir Gaerfyrddin count after all three were elected as Plaid Cymru Senedd Members for the constituency. Picture: Swansea Bay News

The result is a significant moment for Reform UK in Wales. The party had targeted Sir Gaerfyrddin as a key constituency, with Welsh leader Dan Thomas visiting Llanelli during the campaign to push for what he described as a major breakthrough in west Wales.

That breakthrough has now been delivered.

For Plaid Cymru, the result represents both consolidation and concern – three seats in one of its traditional strongholds is a strong return, but the party will have hoped to push for four against a Labour vote that had collapsed.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 55.97% – significantly higher than the 47.8% recorded in Casnewydd Islwyn and the 47.7% in Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni, both of which declared earlier in the day.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The pattern in Sir Gaerfyrddin echoes the result earlier this afternoon in Casnewydd Islwyn – where Reform UK and Plaid Cymru also took two seats each, with Labour reduced to a single seat and the Welsh Conservatives picking up the sixth.

It also echoes Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, where Plaid topped the poll ahead of Reform but the same six-seat split of two Reform, two Plaid, one Labour and one Conservative was returned.

Across the south Wales results so far, Welsh Labour’s collapse from its previous position of dominance is unmistakable.

Sir Gaerfyrddin is the third constituency to declare today, with attention now turning to Gwyr Abertawe – where the count is expected to conclude shortly.

Other constituencies in our area are also expected to declare in the coming hours, including Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Ceredigion Penfro and Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

Reform UK leader Dan Thomas, who became an MS himself earlier today after winning a seat in Casnewydd Islwyn, said in his victory speech that “the Welsh Valleys have been ignored, let down and forgotten by the old parties of Wales” – a message that now appears to be resonating across rural and post-industrial Wales alike.

The Sir Gaerfyrddin declaration ends an era in Carmarthenshire politics – with the constituency returning no Labour MS to the Senedd for the first time since the institution was established in 1999.

The full picture of how the new 96-seat Senedd will look should become clear over the coming hours, with the latest declaration of the day expected from Fflint Wrecsam at around 5.30pm.

#AdamPrice #CarmeloColasanto #CefinCampbell #GarethBeer #NerysEvans #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #SarahEdwards #SeneddElection2026 #WelshLabour

SENEDD ELECTION: Reform UK Wales leader visits Llanelli as party targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats with nine days to go

Reform UK Wales leader Dan Thomas has visited Llanelli as the party steps up its campaign in Carmarthenshire ahead of the Senedd election on May 7.

Thomas, joined by Wales Director David Thomas, spent the day with local candidates and members canvassing in Llanelli town centre, the market, St Elli Shopping Centre and on doorsteps across the area.

Gareth Beer, Reform UK’s lead candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin and Carmarthenshire branch chairman, said the mood on the doorstep had been positive.

“There is great momentum in the county and people are pleased to speak to us and hear about our policies,” he said. “Many people see this election as an important one, and many who have been put off voting in the past are now considering Reform.”

“That’s good to hear — there is a clear shift in this area from the mainstream parties. We are relating to a diverse range of voters which other parties may be struggling to engage with.”

Reform UK Wales leader Dan Thomas visited Llanelli at the weekend as the party targets seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin ahead of the May 7 Senedd election
(Image: Reform UK)

Dan Thomas said he was impressed by the local campaign operation. “The branch has outstanding, very relatable, hard working candidates who have been, for several weeks, campaigning tirelessly, getting out there to speak to as many residents as possible,” he said.

“I was particularly pleased to support the strong Llanelli campaign, where the team is working hard to connect with local people every day and to spread the word on what Reform will do for the people of Wales.”

Reform UK Wales’s key Senedd election pledges include cutting 1p off every band of Welsh income tax, scrapping the default 20mph speed limit in built-up areas, advancing the M4 relief road, and reforming business rates to reduce the burden on independent retailers and hospitality venues.

The party also highlighted the importance of revitalising high streets, noting that Llanelli town centre was quieter than expected during the Saturday visit.

The Sir Gaerfyrddin constituency is one of the most closely watched in Wales ahead of May 7. According to the More in Common MRP we reported last week, Reform UK are projected to win two seats in the constituency on 26% of the vote, behind Plaid Cymru on 37%.

However, the latest YouGov MRP paints a more dramatic picture — putting Reform on 31% and projecting them winning three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin, level with Plaid, and giving Labour no seats in the constituency at all. If that projection holds, both Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto would be elected for Reform in Carmarthenshire.

Across Wales as a whole, the race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK remains on a knife-edge, with the two parties tied on 29% of the vote in the YouGov model and separated by just one projected seat nationally. Reform had no seats at all in the Senedd at the last election in 2021.

The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our More in Common MRP analysis with candidate-by-candidate projections for Sir Gaerfyrddin.

SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major new polls show Wales is heading for historic result
The latest YouGov and Ipsos polling and what it means for Carmarthenshire.

Scarlets: Candidates unite across party lines to demand Senedd scrutiny of WRU’s West Wales merger plans
How candidates across parties in Sir Gaerfyrddin have responded to the WRU crisis.

Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of Swansea Bay News reporting on the May 7 election.

#DanThomas #GarethBeer #Llanelli #ReformUK #ReformWales #SeneddElection2026 #SirGaerfyrddin

CARMARTHENSHIRE: Reform UK names full Senedd slate — but selection rows and defections cast shadow over campaign launch

Reform UK has unveiled its six candidates for Carmarthenshire’s Senedd constituency and announced a new deputy leader for its Welsh operation — but the campaign launch arrives against a backdrop of candidate resignations, selection rows and defections that have dogged the party in recent weeks.

The party has confirmed its full list for Sir Gaerfyrddin, one of the 16 new enlarged constituencies that will each return six members under Wales’s new proportional voting system at the May 7 Senedd election.

Leading the ticket is Gareth Beer, a Kidwelly town councillor and local businessman who has become one of Reform’s most recognisable figures in Carmarthenshire. As Swansea Bay News has reported, Beer came within 1,504 votes of defeating Labour’s Nia Griffith in the Llanelli Westminster seat at the July 2024 general election — Reform UK’s strongest performance anywhere in Wales at that contest.

Gareth Beer, Reform UK’s lead candidate in the Sir Gaerfyrddin constituency

Beer is not the only Kidwelly town councillor contesting the Sir Gaerfyrddin seat this May. As Swansea Bay News has reported, Carl Peters-Bond — who is currently serving a historic fourth successive term as Mayor of Kidwelly — is also standing in the constituency, but as an independent candidate. Peters-Bond has been an active voice on Carmarthenshire issues during the campaign, calling for action on fuel costs for rural families and pushing for progress on the long-stalled reopening of St Clears railway station.

Beer said the response on the doorstep had been “overwhelmingly positive.” He added: “People are tired of the same old promises and spin from career politicians — they want a genuine alternative and real change at Cardiff Bay.”

Joining him on the list is Carmelo Colasanto, a county and community councillor who first worked in Llanelli 27 years ago and has since returned to the town, bringing a background in business compliance and corporate governance. Sarah Edwards, a retired dental professional and smallholder, stands as a prominent campaigner against electricity pylon developments across the Welsh countryside. Christopher Brooke, a retired engineer originally from Wrexham now based in Carmarthenshire, and Alan Cole — a business consultant with a background in senior roles at LG Electronics, Sanyo and HomeServe — round out the business-oriented portion of the list.

The sixth candidate is Michelle Beer, Gareth’s wife. A marketing and PR professional, she made Carmarthenshire political history when she won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli in May 2025, becoming the county’s first-ever Reform UK councillor after defeating Labour in one of its traditional strongholds. The win followed just months after the Llanelli result had established the family as central figures in the party’s Carmarthenshire operation. More recently, Reform consolidated that county council foothold when the party won the Llangennech by-election, securing a second seat on Carmarthenshire County Council.

Michelle Beer was also among those who campaigned against plans to house asylum seekers at the Stradey Park Hotel in Llanelli in 2023 — a proposal the Home Office ultimately abandoned following local opposition. The hotel’s subsequent closure has been one of the most significant ongoing stories in Carmarthenshire.

The Carmarthenshire candidate announcement coincided with news of a new appointment at the top of Reform’s Welsh operation. Dan Thomas, who was appointed Reform Wales leader by Nigel Farage in February, has named Helen Jenner as his deputy. Jenner — a Welsh speaker who tops the party’s list in the Bangor Conwy Môn constituency — was born in Neath and raised on Ynys Môn, and works as a teacher.

Helen Jenner has been named Reform Wales Deputy Leader

Thomas said the appointment reflected the importance of teamwork across the organisation. Jenner said Wales was “at a crossroads” and described Reform as “the only party offering ambitious, credible solutions to the problems the people of Wales face.”

The announcements come at a turbulent time for the party in Wales. Just days after Reform revealed its Swansea and Gower candidate list, one of those named sensationally quit, accusing the party of betrayal and claiming it had “sunk deep into the sewer.” Separately, a Reform Senedd hopeful in Pembrokeshire resigned from the party entirely, alleging the candidate selection process had been rigged. The party has also seen a flow of new arrivals — including Swansea councillor Francesca O’Brien, who recently joined Reform from the Conservatives ahead of the election.

Polling puts the Senedd race in a state of flux. The most recent survey tracked by Swansea Bay News showed Plaid Cymru storming ahead of its rivals — a significant shift from earlier polls that had Reform neck and neck with the nationalists. In Sir Gaerfyrddin specifically, Plaid is projected to dominate with four seats, leaving Reform competing for the remaining two alongside Labour.

The candidates highlighted NHS waiting times, education standards, the cost of living and opposition to net zero energy policies as their main campaign priorities.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Reform win landslide victory in Llanelli by-election
Michelle Beer’s historic by-election win that made her Carmarthenshire’s first-ever Reform UK councillor.

Reform UK wins Llangennech by-election, securing second seat on Carmarthenshire County Council
The party doubled its county council representation in Carmarthenshire ahead of the Senedd campaign.

Swansea Reform UK candidate quits in furious ‘betrayal’ rant – ‘Party has sunk into the sewer!’
The turbulence that has run alongside Reform’s candidate announcements across South West Wales.

Reform Senedd hopeful quits party over claims of ‘rigged’ selection process in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion
Another candidate row that has complicated Reform’s campaign preparations in Wales.

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales
The latest polling picture that shapes the battle for seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin on May 7.

Candidate demands action on stalled St Clears station after ‘five years of promises’
Kidwelly mayor Carl Peters-Bond — also standing in Sir Gaerfyrddin but as an independent — on the campaign trail in Carmarthenshire.

#AlanCole #Carmarthenshire #CarmeloColasanto #ChristopherBrooke #GarethBeer #Kidwelly #MichelleBeer #ReformUK #ReformWales #SarahEdwards #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026

SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Mike Hedges is projected to retain his seatSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart looks like missing out on a Senedd seat

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Adam Price looks like he’s set to remain in the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid’s party list (Image: Plaid Cymru)

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Welsh Lib Dem leader, Jane Dodds could be on the way out, with the party projected to not pick up a single seat

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca Davies looks likely to save his seatBuffy Williams looks set to miss out however

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Eluned MorganSamuel KurtzPaul DaviesBig names on the way out

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake
Earlier polling pointed to major shifts now playing out across west Wales.

Latest poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck in key battleground
South west Wales is emerging as crucial to the outcome of the election.

Experts launch “fantasy football” style Senedd election platform
New tools are helping voters track candidates and outcomes ahead of polling day.

First Minister’s surprise Swansea visit draws attention
Eluned Morgan has been out on the campaign trail across Swansea communities.

#AdamPriceMS #BuffyWilliams #CefinCampbell #ElunedMorganMS #GarethBeer #HuwIrrancaDaviesMS #JaneDodds #MikeHedgesMS #PaulDaviesMS #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #RobStewart #SamuelKurtzMS #Senedd #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026 #SionedWilliams #WelshLabour #YouGov