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SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history as largest party — but here’s who’s actually set to represent YOU on May 7

Wales is heading for a political earthquake on May 7, according to the most detailed poll yet published ahead of the Senedd election.

Research group More in Common has released its first MRP — a sophisticated seat-by-seat modelling technique that goes far beyond standard polling — and the findings represent a dramatic moment in Welsh politics.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 30 seats, making it the largest party in the 96-seat Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999. Reform UK is close behind on 28, with Labour falling to just 24 — a historic collapse for a party that has governed Wales continuously for 27 years.

The Conservatives are forecast to hold seven seats, the Greens four, and the Liberal Democrats three.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said the scale of the shift was extraordinary. “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago — the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales,” he said.

“Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place — and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour First Minister. Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh government for the first time.”

The polling, carried out between January 30 and April 10 with a sample of 2,519 Welsh adults aged 16 and over, shows implied vote shares of 25% each for Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 11% for the Conservatives, 10% for the Greens, and 7% for the Liberal Democrats. Independents and other candidates are polling at under 2% in most constituencies and are not projected to win any seats under this model.

Image: Senedd Implied Voting Intention bar chart — Source: More in Common, March and April 2026

It is the more conservative of two recent MRPs: a JL Partners poll for the Telegraph, published last week, put Plaid on 37 seats — a more commanding lead still.

Image: Wales constituency map showing projected winners — Source: More in Common, April 2026

What it means for your area — and who you’ll be voting for

Wales is using a closed list proportional representation system for the first time in this election, meaning voters choose a party rather than an individual candidate. Seats are then allocated in order from each party’s published list. That means we can say not just which parties are likely to win seats — but exactly who those winners are likely to be.

Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea)

Reform UK’s Francesca O’BrienSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart (Photo: Adam Davies)Plaid Cymru’s Gwyn Williams

The Swansea constituency is projected as a dead heat, with each of the top three parties taking two seats apiece on virtually identical vote shares.

Reform UK lead on 25%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 24% and Labour on 22%. Both Reform UK candidates Francesca O’Brien — the Mumbles ward councillor who defected from the Welsh Conservatives to Reform UK last August, having previously served as the party’s deputy leader in Swansea — and Steven Rodaway would be elected. Labour’s two seats would go to former MS Mike Hedges and Swansea council leader Rob Stewart. Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan.

The Greens are on 10% and the Conservatives also on 10%, with neither projected to win a seat here.

Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire)

Plaid Cymru’s Cefin CampbellReform UK’s Gareth BeerWelsh Labour’s Calum Higgins

Plaid Cymru are dominant in Carmarthenshire, polling at 37% — well ahead of Reform UK on 26% and Labour on 21%.

That translates to three seats for Plaid: Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans, and former party leader Adam Price would all be returned. Reform UK’s Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto would take two seats, and Labour’s Calum Higgins would hold the sixth and final place.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd (Neath Port Talbot/Brecon)

James Evans speaking at a Reform UK event after confirming he has joined the party. (Image: Reform UK)Welsh Labour’s Dr. Mahaboob BashaPlaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams

This is the most fragmented constituency in our area, with six different parties projected to win one seat each — one of the most competitive contests in all of Wales.

Reform UK lead on 27%, with Labour on 21%, Plaid on 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 13%, the Conservatives on 11%, and the Greens on 10%. On those figures the elected members would be: Reform UK’s James Oswald David Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh; Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha; Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams MS; Liberal Democrats’ Jane Dodds MS; and Conservative Tyler John Chambers.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend)

Reform UK’s Sarah Cooper-LesaddPlaid Cymru’s Mark HooperWelsh Labour’s Sarah Murphy

Bridgend mirrors the Swansea picture — a three-way tie with two seats each for Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, and Labour. Reform poll 27%, Plaid 24%, and Labour 24%.

Sarah Cooper-Lesadd and Gareth Thomas would be elected for Reform; Mark Hooper and Sarah Rees for Plaid; and Sarah Murphy and Huw John David for Labour.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Neath Port Talbot/Rhondda)

Reform UK’s Ben Hodge-McKennaPlaid Cymru’s Sera EvansWelsh Labour’s Huw Irranca Davies

This is Reform UK’s strongest projected result in our area. They lead on 36% — ahead of Plaid Cymru on 25% and Labour on 21% — and are projected to win three of the six seats.

Benjamin Hodge McKenna, Steve Bayliss, and Darren James would all be elected for Reform. Plaid’s Sera Evans and Alun Cox would take two seats, with Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies — currently serving as Deputy First Minister — narrowly holding on with the sixth seat.

Ceredigion Penfro (Pembrokeshire)

Plaid Cymru’s Elin JonesWelsh Conservative’s Paul DaviesWelsh Labour’s Eluned Morgan

Plaid Cymru dominate Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion with 38% of the vote, projected to win three seats. The current Llywydd (Speaker) Elin Jones would top their list, followed by Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform UK’s Susan Claire Archibald would take one seat on 20%, and former Conservative Senedd leader Paul Windsor Davies would be returned for the Conservatives on 14%.

In a notable shift from some earlier polls, First Minister Eluned Morgan MS would retain her seat as Labour’s sole representative in the constituency on 14%. Previous MRP modelling had placed her seat at serious risk — this poll suggests she survives, though the margin remains tight.

A volatile result

Image: Chart showing how small changes in support could significantly alter seat totals — Source: More in Common, April 2026

More in Common highlight that the outcome remains fluid. Labour and Reform hold or contest the final seat in a large number of constituencies, meaning minor swings in support on polling day could shift the overall totals significantly either way.

What is beyond doubt is that Wales is heading for a result that would have been unthinkable even five years ago — a Senedd led by Plaid Cymru for the first time, with the party that barely existed in Welsh politics two years ago threatening to become the dominant force from Swansea to the Valleys.

More in Common’s full MRP data is available at moreincommon.org.uk. The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat
An earlier poll had put Eluned Morgan’s seat at serious risk — this latest MRP now says she survives.

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales
Our coverage of the earlier polling that first put Plaid ahead.

Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back in new Senedd poll
How the race between Plaid and Reform has shifted in recent weeks.

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate — two very different futures for south-west Wales
What proportional representation could mean for Labour’s south Wales strongholds.

Swansea councillor Francesca O’Brien joins Reform UK
Our original report on the Mumbles ward councillor’s defection from the Welsh Conservatives last August.

#CllrRobStewart #ElunedMorganMS #featured #MoreInCommon #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection2026

PENLAN: Selfies and fish and chips – First Minister’s ‘off-script’ surprise visit to Swansea social club

The Welsh leader made an unannounced appearance at the Penlan Social Club, catching supporters and staff off guard in a “no airs and graces” visit.

Organisers admit the night went “slightly off script” when the First Minister was found in a huddle with young people in the bar, posing for photos before her formal speech.

Ms Morgan arrived quietly and without fanfare, joining more than 80 people gathered for the launch of Welsh Labour’s new Gwyr Abertawe candidates.

Alison Martin, Club Secretary of Penlan Social Club, said: “Our regulars had no idea she was coming and were delighted to have the First Minister posing for photos in the bar.”

She added: “It’s not every day the First Minister drops in for a fish and chip supper and we’re very proud to have been part of such a special evening.”

Eluned Morgan with Alison Martin, Club Secretary and regulars at Penlan Social Club. Credit: Alison Martin

The First Minister used the visit to set out her party’s election pledges ahead of the Senedd vote on May 7, promising a “new chapter” for Wales.

The evening also marked a changing of the guard for Swansea, with Ms Morgan paying tribute to long-serving MSs Julie James and Rebecca Evans, who are both standing down.

The new candidate list for the region is led by Mike Hedges MS, followed by Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart, who has spearheaded the city’s regeneration.

Eluned Morgan arriving with Party Fundraiser, Kirstie Logan-Townshend Credit: Jennifer Ann PhotographyEluned takes to the stage, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography
Eluned photographed with the Senedd candidates, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography L-R Rebecca Fogarty, Mike Hedges, Eluned Morgan, Rebecca Francis- Davies, Rob Stewart, Patience Bentu

In a move that delighted the room, Ms Morgan stayed on after the formal speeches to enjoy a supper of fish and chips supplied by local Swansea chip shop, Roma.

She also took time to meet local business owners, including Nicky Romanello from the popular chippy, who had supported the event.

The First Minister’s unannounced stop in Penlan is seen as a key moment in the lead-up to the May elections, as parties begin to ramp up their local campaigns.

#CllrRobStewart #ElunedMorgan #ElunedMorganMS #MikeHedges #Penlan #PenlanSocialClub #RobStewart #SeneddElection #Swansea #WelshLabour

Crowds flock for first look at dramatic Civic Centre makeover plans

Residents packed into the Y Storfa community hub last week as Swansea Council and regeneration firm Urban Splash unveiled early ideas for one of the most high‑profile redevelopment sites in Wales.

The proposals — still at an early stage — include new cafés and bars overlooking the bay, beach‑sports shops, apartments, workspaces, a dedicated events venue, and even a brand‑new aquarium on the waterfront.

It’s the boldest vision yet for the huge seafront plot, which the council says could become a “once‑in‑a‑generation” destination for locals and visitors.

An artist’s impression showing how part of the redeveloped Civic Centre site could look, with new cafés, bars, leisure spaces and a busy seafront promenade.
(Image: Urban Splash / Swansea Council)

First Minister drops in for a look

Among those getting an early peek was First Minister Eluned Morgan, who visited Y Storfa during the two‑day exhibition. The hub itself is part‑funded by the Welsh Government’s Transforming Towns programme.

For anyone who missed the event, the full proposals — along with a feedback form — are now available online, with more public engagement promised in the months ahead.

“Shaping something special for Swansea”

Urban Splash, the award‑winning regeneration specialists appointed to deliver the 20‑year partnership across seven Swansea sites, said the turnout showed just how much appetite there is for change.

Development director David Warburton said the response had been “fantastic”.

“We’re at the very start of shaping something special for the Civic Centre site,” he said. “Local insight is invaluable, and there’ll be plenty more opportunities for people to have their say.”

A visual of the proposed Civic Centre plaza, featuring new public spaces, landscaping and a landmark aquarium building.
(Image: Urban Splash / Swansea Council)

Council: “People care deeply about this site”

Council leader Cllr Rob Stewart said the early reaction proved how important the location is to Swansea residents.

“This is a landmark site and people care deeply about its future,” he said. “Working with Urban Splash gives us a once‑in‑a‑generation chance to reimagine the Civic Centre as a vibrant destination for residents, businesses and visitors.”

He added that the council is committed to keeping local people “at the heart of the project”.

Residents study detailed plans for Swansea’s City Waterfront project during the Civic Centre public engagement event.
(Image: Swansea Council)

Part of a wider city shake‑up

The Civic Centre revamp is just one of several major schemes being brought forward under the Urban Splash partnership.

Last autumn, the company revealed plans for a seven‑acre riverside neighbourhood in St Thomas, including more than 150 homes — half of them affordable — a landmark six‑storey building, shared gardens, improved river walkways and new space for shops, cafés and leisure.

The Civic Centre proposals are expected to evolve over the coming months as more public feedback is gathered.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Public invited to give views on new Civic Centre plans as fresh artist’s impression released
Early visuals revealed as residents asked to help shape the future of the seafront site.

New artist’s impression reveals dramatic transformation planned for Swansea’s Civic Centre site
A bold new vision shows how the waterfront could be turned into a major destination.

Plans unveiled for 150‑home riverside neighbourhood in St Thomas
Urban Splash outlines proposals for a new community with homes, green spaces and riverside walkways.

#Aquarium #CivicCentre #civicCentreRedevelopment #ElunedMorganMS #Swansea #SwanseaCouncil #UrbanSplash #YStorfa