#brycheiniog-tawe-nedd — Public Fediverse posts

BRYCHEINIOG TAWE NEDD: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems — Welsh Labour wiped out

Reform UK has topped the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in another major breakthrough result for Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru took two seats in the constituency, with Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holding on to take the sixth and final seat for her party.

Welsh Labour was wiped out entirely – failing to win a single seat in a constituency that covers the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and parts of Neath Port Talbot.

It is the second south-west Wales constituency in which Welsh Labour has been completely shut out today, following a similar wipe-out in Sir Gaerfyrddin earlier this afternoon.

The result is significant on several fronts.

For Reform UK, topping the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd marks the second south Wales constituency in which the party has come first – following its win in Casnewydd Islwyn earlier in the day. The party also won three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin and three in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

For Plaid Cymru, two seats in a rural constituency where the party has historically performed strongly is a respectable but slightly disappointing return – particularly given how strongly the party has done elsewhere in Wales today.

And for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds holding on is a significant moment.

Dodds was the only Liberal Democrat MS in the previous Senedd, and her re-election ensures her party retains its presence at Cardiff Bay.

It is also the Welsh Lib Dems’ first confirmed seat of the day – giving the party a foothold in the new 96-seat Senedd that it has secured against difficult conditions for smaller parties under the new D’Hondt voting system.

Dodds had said during the campaign that she hoped her party would return a larger group than the single seat it secured in 2021.

For Welsh Labour, the result adds to a deeply difficult day. The party has now been wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – and reduced to a single seat in several other constituencies.

The result comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her own seat in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro and resigned as Welsh Labour leader.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and varied constituency stretching from the upper Swansea Valley up through Powys and across into rural Neath Port Talbot – taking in Ystradgynlais, Pontardawe, Brecon and the surrounding areas.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 52.98% – above the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The new Members of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will now take their seats when the seventh Senedd meets for the first time in the coming weeks.

Across Wales as a whole, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.

That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.

Attention now turns to Gwyr Abertawe – the Swansea constituency where the count is still under way, with declarations expected later this evening.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting got under way across Wales.

What does a Welsh defeat mean for Keir Starmer?
Senior Welsh Labour figures have called for the prime minister to consider his position if the result is as bad as predicted.

Reform UK Senedd candidate failed to declare Freemasonry membership on council register

A Reform UK candidate who could be elected to represent parts of Swansea and Neath Port Talbot has admitted failing to declare his Freemasonry membership on his council register of interests, saying he did not realise he was required to do so.

Iain McIntosh, who runs a carpet business in Brecon and defected from the Conservatives last year, is a member of Powys County Council and is number two on Reform UK’s list for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency in next month’s Senedd election — a position that gives him a realistic chance of being elected. The large regional seat covers Powys as well as parts of Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. Nation Cymru reports that a political source provided lodge minutes showing McIntosh had been initiated as a Freemason on 26 February 2020 and passed in November 2021.

Powys County Council’s Register of Members’ Interests asks councillors to declare membership of any company, industrial and provident society, charity or body directed to charitable purposes. The Freemasons make regular charity donations. Under that category, McIntosh had declared “None.”

When approached, McIntosh immediately confirmed he was the individual named in the lodge minutes. “I didn’t realise I was supposed to declare my membership in the Register of Interests, because I didn’t see any conflict. Powys County Council has no contracts with the Lodge I am a member of,” he said.

He added that he had joined to make charity donations and socialise, and had not attended a lodge meeting for a year or 18 months. “I’m a very transparent person and it’s not in my nature to be secretive. If it was up to me, I’d be quite happy to let people know what goes on at meetings — there’s nothing dodgy,” he said. He added that Freemasons could be found across all parties and that if elected to the Senedd he would be happy to declare his membership if required.

The political source said the issue was one of openness and transparency rather than a debate on the merits of Freemasonry itself. “If he is serving constituents, some may be comfortable with his freemasonry, others may not be. So it is important that he is open, transparent and straightforward by telling them what oaths he has sworn to certain clubs and societies,” the source said.

The disclosure comes at a turbulent time for Reform UK in Wales with the Senedd election weeks away. Former Senedd MS Caroline Jones resigned from the party last week, citing candidate parachuting and a “wall of silence” in response to formal complaints.

Three of Reform’s six candidates for the Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan constituency quit in the space of days — including its top two — while a Swansea candidate resigned in a furious “betrayal” rant, saying the party had “sunk deep into the sewer.”

The Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency, which takes in parts of the Brecon Beacons, Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, is one of the more keenly contested regional seats in next month’s Senedd election. With McIntosh second on the list, the question of what he has or hasn’t declared to his current council — and what he would declare as a Senedd member — is now a live one ahead of polling day on 7 May.

McIntosh said he remained committed to transparency. “If I get elected to the Senedd and they want me to declare I am a Freemason, I’ll be happy to do so,” he said.

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate
Polling shows contrasting futures for South West Wales between Westminster and Senedd elections.

Reform still leading in South West Wales
Labour makes gains but Reform UK remains ahead in the latest Senedd polling snapshot.

Reform surge redraws political map
Reform UK’s rise reshapes the electoral landscape across South West Wales constituencies.

Reform pulls ahead as Plaid slips
Reform UK takes the lead while Plaid Cymru loses ground and Labour edges back.

First Minister warns of chaos
Mark Drakeford warns Wales could face chaos if Plaid or Reform win the Senedd election.

Plaid and Reform neck and neck
Labour slumps to a historic low as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK tie in the polls.

Two‑thirds think politicians are out for themselves
A YouGov poll finds widespread distrust, with most believing politicians act in self‑interest.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #BeaufortResearch #BrycheiniogTaweNedd #Caerfyrddin #CeredigionPenfro #GreenParty #GŵyrAbertawe #PenYBontBroMorgannwg #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #SirGaerfyrddin #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats

BAME and union activist tops Labour’s Senedd list for Neath, Swansea East and Brecon

Heading the list is Dr Mahaboob Basha, a Swansea University External Relations Manager and long‑standing union activist. Originally from Tamil Nadu, India, Basha has worked with governments and international organisations including the United Nations. Diagnosed with dyslexia and colour blindness in his twenties, he has become a prominent advocate for equality and representation, chairing Welsh Labour’s BAME membership group. His community work — including delivering thousands of hot meals through Sketty Youth Club — was recognised earlier this year with a British Citizen Award.

Behind him in second place is Alex Sims, who works as office manager for Cardiff MS Jenny Rathbone. Sims has built experience in constituency casework and political organisation, giving him insight into policy delivery and community engagement.

Third on the list is Sarah Thomas, a councillor on Neath Port Talbot Council representing Gwaun‑Cae‑Gurwen and Lower Brynaman. She serves as shadow cabinet member for Finance, Performance & Social Justice, bringing local government experience and a focus on financial accountability and equality.

Further down the list are Elliot Wigfall, a Labour councillor for Ynysybwl and Coed Y Cwm Community Council; Cyriac George, a Care Officer at Swansea Council originally from Kerala, India; Chelsea Edwards, a younger Labour activist involved in community campaigning; and Morgan Pritchard, another emerging figure from the party’s renewal process.

Wider contest

Labour’s announcement comes as other parties have already named their candidates for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Plaid Cymru’s team includes sitting MS Sioned Williams, councillor Rebeca Phillips, community activist Andrew Jenkins, and Abercraf councillor Justin Horrell. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have confirmed that party leader Jane Dodds MS will head their list in the constituency.

Polling picture

As reported by Swansea Bay News earlier this month, the latest polling suggests Labour is currently on track to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. That would mean only the top‑ranked candidate — Dr Mahaboob Basha — is likely to secure election if current trends hold, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru also expected to perform strongly in the area.

What happens next

These rankings remain provisional and subject to endorsement by Welsh Labour’s Executive Committee before being finalised. Further lists for the remaining constituencies will be published in the coming weeks as parties prepare for the next Senedd election.

#alexSims #brycheiniogTaweNedd #chelseaEdwards #cllrSarahThomas #cyriacGeorge #drMahaboobBasha #elliotWigfall #morganPritchard #seneddElection #seneddElections2026 #welshLabour