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BRYCHEINIOG TAWE NEDD: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems — Welsh Labour wiped out

Reform UK has topped the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in another major breakthrough result for Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru took two seats in the constituency, with Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holding on to take the sixth and final seat for her party.

Welsh Labour was wiped out entirely – failing to win a single seat in a constituency that covers the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and parts of Neath Port Talbot.

It is the second south-west Wales constituency in which Welsh Labour has been completely shut out today, following a similar wipe-out in Sir Gaerfyrddin earlier this afternoon.

The result is significant on several fronts.

For Reform UK, topping the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd marks the second south Wales constituency in which the party has come first – following its win in Casnewydd Islwyn earlier in the day. The party also won three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin and three in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

For Plaid Cymru, two seats in a rural constituency where the party has historically performed strongly is a respectable but slightly disappointing return – particularly given how strongly the party has done elsewhere in Wales today.

And for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds holding on is a significant moment.

Dodds was the only Liberal Democrat MS in the previous Senedd, and her re-election ensures her party retains its presence at Cardiff Bay.

It is also the Welsh Lib Dems’ first confirmed seat of the day – giving the party a foothold in the new 96-seat Senedd that it has secured against difficult conditions for smaller parties under the new D’Hondt voting system.

Dodds had said during the campaign that she hoped her party would return a larger group than the single seat it secured in 2021.

For Welsh Labour, the result adds to a deeply difficult day. The party has now been wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – and reduced to a single seat in several other constituencies.

The result comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her own seat in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro and resigned as Welsh Labour leader.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and varied constituency stretching from the upper Swansea Valley up through Powys and across into rural Neath Port Talbot – taking in Ystradgynlais, Pontardawe, Brecon and the surrounding areas.

The constituency recorded a turnout of 52.98% – above the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.

Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The new Members of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will now take their seats when the seventh Senedd meets for the first time in the coming weeks.

Across Wales as a whole, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.

That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.

Attention now turns to Gwyr Abertawe – the Swansea constituency where the count is still under way, with declarations expected later this evening.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

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The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting got under way across Wales.

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Senior Welsh Labour figures have called for the prime minister to consider his position if the result is as bad as predicted.

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SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

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