#fermiparadox — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #fermiparadox, aggregated by home.social.
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Run the model again except with social media as the hazard. Darkness can creep in on all sorts of feet. :-)
"The Fermi paradox may partly reflect technological self-destruction acting as a Great Filter during post-industrial development. Because the empirical record consists of a single civilization observed over an eighty-year nuclear age, the exercise reported here is best understood as a structured, historically anchored scenario analysis rather than a data-driven statistical estimate. We develop a time-varying hazard model to estimate civilizational survival under nuclear risk, using Earth's documented close calls as an illustrative case. A Bayesian survival-analysis framework with regime-switching hazards captures temporal non-stationarity between Cold War and post-Cold War periods and propagates parameter uncertainty. Under high-alert nuclear postures, estimated annual hazards range from roughly 0.1% to 2%, implying median survival times on the order of decades to millennia conditional on institutional configuration. These hazards plausibly exceed natural extinction risks but may decline substantially with improved governance and control systems. The results bound detectable civilizational longevity and offer conditional implications for existential-risk prioritization and SETI expectations under deep uncertainty."
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The chances of anything coming from Earth... are a million to one.
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We are probably going to hit a Great Filter, in that we (as a species) are doing the opposite of keeping the world safe for the next generation. Instead the capitalist class and their bought governments are going full steam ahead into the death of billions.
#GreatFilters #FermiParadox #ClimateCrisis #climateChange #antiCapitalism
https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/the-massive-climate-lie-that-will-destroy-human-civilization
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What if the actual Fermi bottleneck is that the expanding civilizations foolishly build lots of satellites and cause themselves a Kessler effect and loose access to the space? That's why they don't send any probes and their signals are too weak.
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By deductively combining the Fermi Paradox and our methods for discovering exoplanets, we can conlude that there are no alien civilizations:
- In the small slice of the sky we have surveyed
- unless their ships are smaller than planet-sized
- except if their planet-sized ships move around in patterns different from just orbiting a star, like a planet would.
Did I remind you that deduction is infallible and super useful?
And that the Fermi paradox is really super important outside of journos having to throw together a hack article to fill some space on the page?
/s
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Are we the only intelligent civilization in the universe? 🧠
Scientists have debated this question for years, and there are many fascinating possibilities why we have yet to hear from any cosmological neighbors.
Take our Fermi Paradox Quiz and discover which cosmic theory matches your perspective.
☑️ Find the quiz at https://seti.outgrow.us/what-is-your-fermi-paradox-persona
#AreWeAlone #FermiParadox #SETIInstitute #Space #Astronomy #Aliens #Science
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When you think about it, building an #Ai woodchipper around the whole civilisation to kill ourselves is a pretty dumb ape move...
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The universe contains an estimated 200 billion trillion stars.
With numbers like that... where is everybody?
Take our interactive Fermi Paradox Quiz to discover which theory best matches your view of the universe.
Start the quiz: https://seti.outgrow.us/what-is-your-fermi-paradox-persona
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I'm more concerned about the #FermiParadox.
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What if Earth isn't ordinary at all?
Rare Earth Hypothesis explores why planets like ours may be extraordinarily uncommon in the universe.Read more
https://formulon.blog/2026/06/24/rare-earth-hypothesis/#RareEarthHypothesis #Astronomy #Astrobiology #Earth #Science #SpaceScience #FermiParadox #GreatFilter #ScienceBlog
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If advanced civilizations should be everywhere, why is the cosmos silent? Exploring the Great Filter, the most unsettling solution to the Fermi Paradox.
Read: https://formulon.blog/2026/06/20/the-great-filter/
#GreatFilter #FermiParadox #Astrobiology #SETI #AlienLife #SpaceScience #Cosmology #Astronomy #ScienceBlog #Universe #Exoplanets #Formulon
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Given a recent USA headline about how the new crop of incoming freshmen college students can't even read well enough to read a complete sentence, I had a sudden burst of inspiration. I believe I have solved a long-standing scientific problem.
It's the Fermi paradox: given how we think intelligent life evolved from sterile chemicals on a primordial Earth, and that there are billions of planets capable of the same sort of process, even if a tiny proportion of those potential sources did go on to bring forth intelligent life, there should be many - thousands, maybe millions - that *did* give rise to intelligent life.
The paradox is, given all these intelligent species out there, why have we heard from precisely zero of them?
There are lots of theories as to why this is. The most pessimistic ones tend to say that intelligent life inevitably does something to eliminate itself, (geologically) soon after becoming intelligent, so they aren't around long enough for them to send messages, or they do so for such a tiny window of time that it doesn't overlap with *our* tiny window. Causes: nuclear war, #environmental #catastrophe, etc.
I now believe that it's simpler: a society of intelligent life eventually invents #LLMs / "AI", and then deskills itself so rapidly in a race to the bottom of the effort-skill curve that they no longer exist, or at least not at a level to be capable of sending messages to us.
We're doing it now.
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22/
6. If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life by Stephen Web, 2002 (Expanded Edition 2015)A thrillingly comprehensive, highly readable deep-dive into the Fermi Paradox that provides 75 distinct, clever answers to why we haven't officially met extraterrestrials yet—ranging from the mundane to the utterly terrifying.
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@bkahn I wonder how many intelligent species in this galaxy collapsed down to post-sentience due to compulsive lying and selfishness?
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A galactic network of alien civilisations sharing images of their pets, nothing else....
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Kinda ironic handing a 'Lifetime Achievement' award to someone when he calculates that the collective 'lifetime' of our species is nearly up. 😉
#fermiparadox
'The chances of you living 50 years are very small': Theoretical physicist explains why humanity likely won't survive to see all the forces unified | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/space/cosmology/the-chances-of-you-living-50-years-are-very-small-theoretical-physicist-explains-why-humanity-likely-wont-survive-to-see-all-the-forces-unified -
RE: https://bolesblogs.com/2026/04/19/below-the-mesh/
Two things I've always thought about the Fermi Paradox
1) We don't know what technology They use, so it's just guesswork as to what we're looking for. A bit presumptuous to write off the whole Universe as empty.
2) The Universe is BIG and we're barely explored it yet, we've only been listening for radio for about a 100 Earth years, that's nothing in this big old universe. And who wants to communicate at the Speed of Light? -
Eternity in six hours: Intergalactic spreading of intelligent life (2013)
#HackerNews #Eternity #Intergalactic #Life #FermiParadox #SpaceExploration #IntelligentLife
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https://youtu.be/rXfFACs24zU
It’s about part of the #Fermi_Paradox #FermiParadox -
“Great Silence” in narrowband radio technosignature searches over the past several decades may be caused by spectral broadening in interplanetary medium.
Turbulent plasma near distant stars could blur ultra-narrow signals before they leave their home star systems, making them difficult to detect.
https://www.seti.org/news/why-seti-might-have-been-missing-alien-signals/Exo–IPM Scattering as a Hidden Gatekeeper of Narrowband Technosignatures https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ae3d33
"Narrowband radio technosignatures can be significantly modulated by the host star’s exoplanetary interplanetary medium (Exo-IPM), where turbulence in stellar winds and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imprint spectral broadening. ..
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Brian Cox: The terrifying possibility of the Great Filter - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXfFACs24zU -
🌌 The Fermi paradox begins with a simple question: a universe rich with stars and worlds, and a sky that still feels quiet. How do we separate a true signal from our own interference, and what might silence be telling us?
✍️ Full exploration: https://TPC8.short.gy/lnUnZ9ab
🔭 In the hush between signals, curiosity learns to listen.
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@alvar
Das #FermiParadox war für mich nie schlüssig. Bei den Distanzen müssten die Aliens entweder soviel länger leben als wir, dass ein Kontakt eh nicht sinnvoll wäre, oder die Relativitätstheorie ist so falsch wie es kein Physiker annimmt.Aliens, die Kontakt mit uns aufnehmen können, müssten uns heute immer noch wie Götter vorkommen. Und Däniken hatte trotzdem nicht recht.
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maybe we haven't been visited by aliens because they look at our rating and go "just One star? eww I'll pass"
