#econobscene — Public Fediverse posts

Weil alle Ökonomen und politischen Akteure wieder behaupten, Deutschland bräuchte Wachstum...

Meinen die vielleicht die Grenzen nach Norden, Osten oder Westen erweitern, damit Deutschland wächst? ^^

Nach Süden wäre nicht ratsam, weil Klimawandel dort zu teuer wird. Schon Südbayern sollten wir den Österreichern überlassen, weil das heißer werdende Mittelmeer nun ständig darüber ausgekippt wird.
Wachstums-bedingt heißeres Mittelmeer übrigens.

Wirtschaftswachstum geht einher mit Zerstörung unserer Lebensgrundlagen.
Und es ist völlig egal, ob es in 20 oder 30 Jahren mal theoretisch möglich wäre, eine nahezu rohstofffreie Dienstleistungswirtschaft implementiert zu haben. Weil das, was JETZT wächst, CO2 und andere THG emittiert und die Natur killt.
JETZT muss abgebremst werden. Und es wird auch abgebremst. Ihr wisst schon, by design oder by disaster. #ÖkonObszön #EconObscene #Degrowth #Postgrowth

@Volksverpetzer

Speziell auch die Lüge von #Merz mit dem angeblichen #Verbrennerverbot und dem angeblichen Zwang zu #Wärmepumpe versus ach-so-tolle #Technologieoffenheit von CxU.

Das war mir so noch gar nicht im Detail klar.
Durch die sukzessiv sinkenden EU-Flottengrenzwerte zu Emissionen von PKW ergibt sich 2035, dass PKW klimaneutral fahren müssen. Wie sie das tun, ist nicht festgelegt, sie können auch mit eFuels fahren, wenn es Hersteller dafür gibt, die einen ausreichend großen Kundenstamm haben, sodass sie #efuels mit Profit herstellen können.... tja...

Auch im GEG #GebäudeEnergieGesetz ist keine Vorschrift für Wärmepumpe, sondern statt Flottengrenzwerten wie für PKWhersteller wird es hier dem Heizungsbesitzer anheim gestellt, wie er bis zum Stichtag X die #Klimaneutralität seiner Heizung hinkriegen will. Wenn er mit #Wasserstoff liebäugelt, muss er sich ne Gemeinde suchen, die ein Wasserstoffnetz dafür gebaut hat... tja... oder Biogas oder was es sonst so gibt. Ich hoffe doch stark, dass #pelletheizung aus der "klimaneutral"-Liste gestrichen wird.

Man sollte Flottengrenzwerte auch bei Heizungsbauern, bei Installateuren per IHK oder bei Gemeinden einführen und es eben nicht dem Einzelnen überlassen, sich strategisch klug zu informieren, bevor er sich heute ne Heizung kauft.

Wir Menschen sind dumm, wir wissen es bloß nicht. Es uns persönlich zu überlassen, mit steigenden Heiz- und Spritpreisen durch #CO2preis klarzukommen, ist zum Scheitern verurteilt. Sowohl, was garantierte Budgeteinhaltung angeht – denn auf diese Weise weiß man einfach nicht, wann wer sein CO2-Verhalten ändert – als auch, was tatsächliche oder gefühlte Belastungsgrenzen angeht, was dann entweder zu richtigen Härten führt oder den Lügnern à la #Merz, #Lindner und #Weidel leichtes Spiel und Aufwind gibt.

Eine ganz, ganz dumme, natürlich neoliberalen Grundsätzen folgende Strategie im #EconObscene

https://theconversation.com/how-the-pollution-of-today-will-become-the-technofossils-of-the-far-future-248815
How the pollution of today will become the techno fossils of the far future.
The International Commission on Stratigraphy may have rejected the Anthropocene, but deep future Geologists and Palaeontologists will have no doubt that a new Epoch started here.
"Will future geologists figure out the story of a broiler chicken genetically engineered to feed relentlessly to maximize weight gain, for slaughter just five or six weeks after hatching? We suspect the fossil evidence will be damning."

But ... For the next tech civilisation to evolve and to also birth sciences like archeology, it'll need reliable harbours even more than our ancestors did. Because we utterly depleted local raw materials, those far-future societies would need globalised trade much sooner in order to develop technologies for #archeology and any other science on par with today's or even pre-industrial technology.

But #sealevelrise nips this in the bud - makes reliable harbours impossible until the next ice age 600ky from now.

Postponing the next ice age by 600ky is achieved by 1.5C w arming. A theoretical 3C warming extends this to 1mio years.
I am virtually certain tho that we'll achieve 1.5C by 2100... How? Because we're on track to 2.7C and this culture of non-solidarity kills our tech civilisation early enough for 1.5C - via CO2drawdown from rewilding, the natural and far quicker version of #CCS prescribed in hillarious #EconObscene IAM.
CO2 net worth of -0.5C is going to go into new plants once Global North is depopulated. Because it ends industrialised farming and because it frees up all land currently occupied anywhere for G-North's gluttony.
#paleontology #Anthropocene

https://phys.org/news/2025-01-im-economist-california-crisis-trigger.html

The economist doesn't let on why he thinks that the insurance crisis can trigger "broader" financial instability.
He only mentions 2008-2009 – and thinks, that's enough.

His last sentence tho lets me think, the #LAfires weren't for naught if the
" financial, cultural and entertainment center of the world" has really burnt down.
Because obviously, since we are where we are today, such a center bears lots of responsibility for why we got here.

Or did you discover a U-turn in how the "cultural and entertainment centre" depicts desirable lifestyles? It's still mansions, single family homes, car-addiction, flying and so on. No sign in the movies of sustainable living space per person, 35 square metres, +15 for each additional person.
No sign of cycling, walking, car-less activities. No talk of aviation cirrus and emitting CO2 so far up in the atmosphere.
Ah well.
You get my drift.
The irresponsible "financial, cultural and entertainment center of the world" has brought us here. It's a driving part of the #EconObscene and the #ClimateCrisis

"Rarely have so many cities ruined by natural disasters attempted to rebuild around the same time. Hurricane reconstruction efforts are under way in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. Soon, Los Angeles County will be starting to rebuild. "

"As more projects get under way, escalating demand for home-building resources could course through the economy, tightening supply chains and driving up costs."

"Builders will compete for engineering resources, architectural resources and debris removal"

If POTUS " follows through on his vow to impose stiff tariffs and deport undocumented workers, rebuilding could become even more fraught. Undocumented workers comprise an estimated 13% of the construction industry, while many builders rely on imported steel, lumber and other materials that could soon be more expensive. "

Again no mention of the scientific figure for sustainable living space per person: 35 square metres.
And no mention of switching to communal appliances as opposed to each family re-buying their own washing machines or tools.

They all think that single family homes and mansions are a matter of course, not a problem wrt natural resources, minerals, biodiversity, emissions, car-dependency and so on.

Also, one might recall how the economists' model #DICE has its default setting to a couple of years in which damages from weather extremes are assumed to be fully replaced.
And if I'm not mistaken, this damage function has no setting for increasing recovery time over the decades or increasing with rising temperature. They set it once, and their model calculates with this figure all the way through to 2100.
<imagine a plethora of facepalm emojis here>

But here we are, at merely 1.5C, and the US faces shortages for rebuilding after multiple disasters within 9 months struck the South. Shortages even before the President of the United Sadists is in Office and enacts his grand scheme to end civilisation.

Good for GDP, is it?
#LAfires #EconObscene

https://www.wsj.com/business/the-battle-for-recovery-supplies-is-on-in-a-disaster-strewn-america-46d191bf
(remember: archive.ph is your friend)

@Popolon @yogthos

Maybe, all this tragedy in #LAfires has one silver lining:
rich people were hit.
Rich means influential in the USA.
Maybe, now they raise their voices loud enough so that the USA gets her act together and sufficiently acts on #ClimateChange .
Maybe now they realize that global heating not a slow-burning thing they can outrun by their financial means.
Maybe now they realize that they depend on functioning societies across all income groups and globally.

Fortune's article above links to the original article by AccuWeather with the damage estimate of US$ 150bn .
They describe the criteria for their estimate. And those sound pretty holistic.
Although still based on the official estimate for very low numbers of destroyed structures, 10k.
So the 150bn are likely to increase. Gruesome.
But re-building is good for GDP, as economists would see it. The #Pyrocene is the #EconObscene

https://www.accuweather.com/en/press/media-advisory-accuweather-increases-estimate-of-total-damage-and-economic-loss-ascatastrophic-wildfires-in-southern-california-continue-to-ravage-the-los-angeles-area-updated-preliminary-estimate-i/1732268

Decision makers do not update their climate knowledge.
Decision makers happily juggle figures from 2 decades ago.
And because they are decision makers, they think of themselves as being on top of things. So they have no reason at all to assume that they lack knowledge.

#Obama on 2°C warming, 2.5, 3 and 3.5°C.
He says, the difference between 2.5 and 3.5 might mean whether 100 million people have to migrate or only a few. Also, note how he refers to 2C as something bearable, manageable? He's clueless!

If Obama had ever listened to actual scientists – as opposed to economists – he'd know that
for a 1.5°C pathway, 90 million people suffer under multiple climate threats and have no other means for survival than migration by 2050.
for 2°C, it's 500 million people.
for 3°C it's 900 million people.

And: these numbers are reached by 2050!

Chapter 3 of SR1.5 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/

Imagine this: in 25 years from now, the number of climate refugees will be 10 times more than the number in 2023.
Nearly a billion people too exposed and too vulnerable to multiple climate stressors.
Plus the refugees of wars and terror.

This man had professional climate advisors for 8 years in office. And maybe he still employs some. In any case, he has not updated his knowledge since at least 2018 when IPCC special report SR1.5 came out.

And he talks rubbish like this in his social circles, not only to his daughter.
These guys are all on this same page wrt impacts: Clueless.

https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1677075431462260736

#EconObscene #ClimateChange #Migration #Refugees

@pluralistic

Thank you for your thoughts on how your short story https://prospect.org/culture/books/2024-12-09-radicalized-cory-doctorow-story-health-care/
was birthed, and on what you think now that Luigi Mangione has shot dead the CEO of United Healthcare https://pluralistic.net/2024/12/09/radicalized/#deny-defend-depose .

...numbers bouncing around in my head...32% denial but charging 182thousand percent for a $8 Covid test...

One of my questions: Why, oh why did you and your partner decide to move from Canada to the shithole country USA? Become a citizen even?

One of my thoughts on the societal dynamics that are responsible for this shithole health"care" system to evolve: bad things happen when too many good people pretend shithole stuff were other people's problems, not theirs, when too many people choose non-radicalisation.

I am going through a non-radicalisation wrt climate.
I never really cared about any social "issue" , I mean really deeply care about one and identify with it. Now I do, about climate.

But I decide against becoming the equivalent of Robinson's justly radicalised "Children of Kali" in his climate novel "Ministry for the Future" who shoot down passenger planes. (A nice enough novel but the whole plot is not thought through logically, so I can't really recommend it.)

Despite really knowing the stakes, I decide against tarnishing my conscience with their immoral choice.
And thus, I fear, I am of course, what do you call it, abetting the shithole stuff?
For not radicalising into violence, I am being an asset to that #EconObscene which will ultimately cause my own early and potentially violent death, and the death of our tech civilisation.

I am one of the "good people" who enable bad stuff to happen by not radicalising on time.

Luigi Mangione radicalised into targeted action and his success is already that one health care provider put a stop to their profitable concept of denying paying for anaesthesia.

So by immorally choosing to shoot down one CEO, Luigi has already saved thousands and thousands of people from bad outcomes of not-performed surgeries.
In my book, this makes Luigi a hero. A modern Robin Wood.

But still. I fear the SWAT team at my door more than I fear the 2030s, and excuse my decision – to not start killing our murderers – with a humanist concept of ethics that is not at all applicable in the shithole EconObscene we, my generation, has brought about by not caring enough.

Oh, wait, just a second...
When AMOC hickupped during LGM or deglaciasation, global sea level was 120m lower than today.
My musings wrt (sea) ice melt back then compared to today, and its impact on AMOC transport speed should also consider that coastal ice wasn't sea ice at all due to lower sea level.
Dunno for sure, but continental ice could have covered the very shallow Norwegian sea all the way up to Svalbard.

Arctic ocean also has ocean currents that somehow interact with AMOC. Sea ice formation helps driving ocean currents.
When less area was covered by ocean, sea ice formation was less which must have influenced Arctic ocean currents, and therefor, AMOC in paleoclimate.

Today's Arctic sea ice loss has already altered, weakened or stopped a bottom water current that goes right through the centre of the Arctic sea. Don't recall its name now, maybe starts with a T or L...?
And wasn't Alaska also connected to Siberia, and hence no water from the Pacific entered the Arctic sea to drive currents and influence AMOC?
Anyway, whether or not any Arctic ocean currents existed during LGM or deglaciasation, when sea ice formation was greatly reduced all around the Arctic coast, is also something to bear in mind when comparing the causes of a tipping paleo AMOC with the causes of the tipping potential of an #EconObscene AMOC.

Antarctic sea ice formation wouldn't have been reduced from lower sea level, tho. Not impeded by <surrounding> land area, it just formed further out. That's all.

#paleoclimate #LGM #AMOC #seaice #Arctic #Antarctic #ocean #TippingPoint

@tillmanreuter @renordquist
Indeed!
And no one should continue calling it a Nobel for short either.
Economists did and do so much damage to humankind and to general nature that it has to become public knowledge how they deliberately conned their way into illustre political circles by creating a prize that science-washes their misleading, botched fairytales because they named it similar to the real Nobel prize.
#EconObscene #Neoliberalism

Paper on effectiveness of climate policies https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547
"Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades"
Annika #Stechmesser et al 2024

Only casually skim-read for now. Stumbling over this chart below. It shows per capita CO2 emissions in select countries, and in box symbols on the x-axis, markers for year of enforced policy.

Remarkable where the authors placed the " | " as indicator for when a policy is supposed to have had effect on emissions.
It's either 2020, the pandemic year, or shortly after the de-regulated banking sector in the US had catapulted the whole world into economic crisis 2008/09.
And 2012 in Greece, when the IMF forced the country into an austerity period to prevent a Grexit.

Dunno. I don't feel inclined to read the paper after seeing the charts.
They probably also didn't dis-entangle the CO2-price measures from the normal regulations, either.
I suspect, they're following the preferred Econobscene narrative that upping the price for a drug lets addicts make intelligent, rational decisions – no matter how much the drug dealers trick them into staying addicted – 
which magically then leads to keeping in CO2-budget.

I take the paper as another attempt to "prove" a theoretical concept. The speed at which sources of emissions must by now be culled, is in big parts due to economics' wet dreams of how their theoretical world should work. It's not the Anthropocene, it's the #EconObscene

The speed of decommissioning emission sources leaves no room anymore for trial and error. The favoured "small steps, nudging, then hoping and praying" has lead us here. Due to that, true command economy with rations for everything and everyone are necessary now to immediately get emissions down immediately, and to transform energy and agri sector from this lower emission level.

Article is about a UK #bioenergy power plant that burns imported wood pellets from the US. It received scrutiny in a report because it produced more CO2 in 2023 than the now-offline last #coal power plant. But it's not the real problem, IMO.

The UK tax payers heavily subsidise the wood-burning as sustainable and CO2-neutral, and because of the promise 😁 of 100% carbon capture and storage by 2030.
#BECCS #CCS
But the claimed sustainability, ie not felling forests for the imported pellets, is not monitored by the government, at all.
Remember: everything profitable is attracting sociopaths and requires monitoring and harsh personal sentences for managers AND shareholders as incentive to adhere to rules.

And now read this:

"The FTSE 100 owner of the Drax power plant made profits of £500m over the first half of this year, helped by biomass subsidies of almost £400m over this period. It handed its shareholders a windfall of £300m for the first half of the year." 😁 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/09/biomass-power-station-produced-four-times-emissions-of-uk-coal-plant-says-report
#CapitalismKills #Econobscene #Energy

Commendable review on effectiveness of #CO2price. 80 studies made it into this meta review and their uncertainty ranges go from -30 to +30% CO2 emissions per national policy investigated. Hahaha!

AND of the 333 fulltext-screened studies 208 got excluded because they reported "no relevant effects"👀😁👍

The #EconObscene sucks! #Neoliberalism sucks! Economists suck!
#Economics sucks!

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48512-w

@PIK_climate
Ja schon. Hab ich für Deutschland auch so gedacht. Aber Stahl ist wohl ein Produkt für die nationale Sicherheit, bei dessen Herstellung man 2x nachdenkt, bevor man sie outsourced. Mal wieder ein Beispiel dafür, wie der neoliberale Mainstream "effizient" völlig nutzlos auf "billig" begrenzt. #ÖkonObszön #Econobscene