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#predictit — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #predictit, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Today Gaseous Clay took the lead on #PredictIt, and quite the lead it is. Also #TruthSocial is up 50% this week and has more than doubled from its low. We can thank Melon, I suppose. Times are getting scary.

    #voteblue #kamalaharris #djt #TrothSential

  2. Not loving how things are looking on #PredictIt.org

    I'm skeptic of polls, and in my mind, this market is the best proxy for how things are actually going. Which, frankly, is shockingly bad.

    Before you defend polls, consider that folks my age (gen y) and younger don't answer the phone for unfamiliar numbers. Heck we don't even answer for family.

    #voteblue #kamala #nevertrump #kamalaharris

  3. Check out the volume! Look at the dive for Trump and spike for Kamala. 🤩#debate2024 #predictit

  4. Since the debate started there have been big moves on predictit.org which is a nonprofit where folks can bet on various current events. #debate2024 #predictit

  5. Harris (light blue) took the lead over Trump (dark blue) on #PredictIt with high volume on July 31.

    Do you think this is pricing in Trump’s racist comments in front of SBJ or something more fundamental?

  6. At the start of the RNC last week, #PredictIt was forecasting a 69% chance that Trump would be the next President.

    Those odds not only fell over the course of the RNC, their fall accelerated since Biden's withdrawal.

    Current predictions stand at 59%.

    predictit.org/markets/detail/7

  7. Well after today's AZ Supreme Court decision, that's another $100 into #PredictIt on the AZ Senate election. Should be pretty easy money.

  8. Anyone else on #PredictIt? Reply with your free money positions.

  9. I’m interested in the forecasts for this wannabe Ubermensch to get bored with the “social infrastructure”.

    It’s a toy which he drives like a McLaren with Peter Thiel in the passenger seat.

    How long before finally filing bankruptcy for #MySpaceX?

    That isn’t a #PredictIt market?

    mashable.com/article/x-premium

  10. I don't know if this is a problem for all of #Disqus, or just a problem at #PredictIt, but any post on PredictIt that contains a link to mastodon.social is being automatically flagged as spam.

    @Gargron

  11. Today is the day people who are good at trading political event contracts get told they are a winner every year. This year I’ve earned a 1099 for #PredictIt and #Kalshi. I generally bring old school value investing strategies to get me consistent but moderate returns.
    This year was pretty good for me. besides hitting nearly every 2022 election market and I called a quarter of negative growth for 2022Q1 publicly with analysis when it was valued at 7-9%, a major long shot

  12. @AnarchoNinaWrites
    Who wants to bet on an election at realistic Vegas odds? A service like PredictIt lets you take MAGA money at whatever odds a QAnon cultist is willing to take. (Sadly, PredictIt is being shut down by the feds.)

    #PredictIt