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  1. Benjamin Hindrichs, @Krautreporter: Was drei #Aktivisten beim Kampf gegen die #Autokratie gelernt haben

    Sie kämpfen gegen ihre Regime in der #Türkei, #Ägypten und #Russland. Und sagen: Irgendwann kommt der Moment, in dem du aufhörst, Angst zu haben. Geschenklink. krautreporter.us8.list-manage.

  2. Benjamin Hindrichs, @Krautreporter: Was drei #Aktivisten beim Kampf gegen die #Autokratie gelernt haben

    Sie kämpfen gegen ihre Regime in der #Türkei, #Ägypten und #Russland. Und sagen: Irgendwann kommt der Moment, in dem du aufhörst, Angst zu haben. Geschenklink. krautreporter.us8.list-manage.

  3. Benjamin Hindrichs, @Krautreporter: Was drei #Aktivisten beim Kampf gegen die #Autokratie gelernt haben

    Sie kämpfen gegen ihre Regime in der #Türkei, #Ägypten und #Russland. Und sagen: Irgendwann kommt der Moment, in dem du aufhörst, Angst zu haben. Geschenklink. krautreporter.us8.list-manage.

  4. Benjamin Hindrichs, @Krautreporter: Was drei #Aktivisten beim Kampf gegen die #Autokratie gelernt haben

    Sie kämpfen gegen ihre Regime in der #Türkei, #Ägypten und #Russland. Und sagen: Irgendwann kommt der Moment, in dem du aufhörst, Angst zu haben. Geschenklink. krautreporter.us8.list-manage.

  5. Benjamin Hindrichs, @Krautreporter: Was drei #Aktivisten beim Kampf gegen die #Autokratie gelernt haben

    Sie kämpfen gegen ihre Regime in der #Türkei, #Ägypten und #Russland. Und sagen: Irgendwann kommt der Moment, in dem du aufhörst, Angst zu haben. Geschenklink. krautreporter.us8.list-manage.

  6. 5 Christian Films of 2026

    I’ve been neglecting my movie viewers and for that am apologizing. Working on a movie script and wrapping up my next book! Got a lot going on. So here are the top 5 Christian Films of 2026. To all of my movie watchers… Hope you find something inspiring and uplifting. Blessings and Peace!

    1. A Great Awakening

    In honor of America’s 250th anniversary, A GREAT AWAKENING tells the true story of an unlikely friendship that resulted in one of the most defining moments in American history.

    With the colonies on the brink of collapse, the Reverend George Whitefield sparks the first Great Awakening, uniting an entire generation with his thundering proclamation of liberty in Christ. In a miraculous turn of events, one of Whitefield’s closest friends and greatest promoters becomes none other than Benjamin Franklin. With the nation’s freedom hanging in the balance, Franklin discovers true liberty cannot only be written into law – it must be awakened in the hearts of the people. At a neighborhood theatre near you. If you want to watch A Great Awakening at home, you’ll have to wait for the film to be available to buy or rent on digital platforms.

    2. Soul On Fire

     A 2025 American biographical drama film about John O’Leary, a real-life St. Louis native who survived fire burns which covered his entire body. Based on a true story, in 1987, nine-year-old John was playing with matches and gasoline in his garage, mimicking older boys. Doctors gave him a 1% chance to live. He endured severe pain and was asked by his mother if he wanted to die or live; he chose to live. His recovery was supported by his family, community, and notable figures, including sports broadcaster Jack Buck, who encouraged him in the hospital. A massive explosion occurred, causing burns over 100% of his body. Due to third-degree burns, he lost all his fingers. He spent years hiding his scars, but eventually embraced his experience to become a, author of On Fire and a speaker, focusing on transforming pain into purpose. It was released on 2025 and is 1h 52m. Is rated PG. Can be seen on Amazon Prime, Google Play Movies from $5.99 and Netflix.

    3. On A Wing And A Prayer

    From a true story. On Easter Sunday 2009, Doug White, a 56-year-old pharmacist, his wife, and their two daughters return to Archibald, Louisiana, after attending a funeral for White’s brother. Less than 10 minutes after their King Air 200 private plane (registered N559DW but mainly using the abbreviated callsign “niner delta whisky”) takes off from Marco Island, Florida, the pilot dies of a heart attack. Fort Myers air traffic controllers and a flight instructor from Danbury, Connecticut, manage to teach Doug how to fly the plane and land it while the family, who attend a Church of Christ, pray for a miracle. It was released on 2023 and is 1hr 42m. I rated PG. Can be seen on Amazon Prime, Apple TV for $14.99, Fandango At Home for $14.99, Google Play Movies for $14.99, Roku, Tubi for Free, YouTube for Free, and YouTube with a Subscription.

    4. David A Battle For The Soul Of A Kingdom

    In BethlehemDavid is a young musician who tends his father Jesse‘s flock of sheep. After protecting the flock from an Asian lion, David is called before Prophet Samuel, who anoints him as the future King of Israel. Samuel leaves when palace guards arrive to retrieve David to play the lyre for King Saul. David soothes Saul, who has become troubled as God has rejected him as king. Saul is alerted when the Philistine army, led by King Achish, have arrived to battle the Israelite army. In the Valley of Elah, the Philistines bring forth their champion, Goliath, a nine-foot giant. Goliath taunts Saul, his son Jonathan, and the Israelites to summon a worthy challenger. Firm in his faith in God, David decides to challenge Goliath. David retrieves smooth stones from a nearby riverbank and challenges Goliath to a fight, in which he kills Goliath slinging a stone to his forehead. Inspired by David’s victory, the Israelites defeat the Philistine army. It was released in 2025 is 1h 49m. Is rated PG. Can be seen on Angel.com, Amazon Prime Video to rent or purchase, Apple TV & Fandango at Home for purchase.

    5. Dot Conner: Webtective

    Just before her first day of school, Internet sleuth Dot got a cryptic call from her father, claiming he didn’t have much time and needed her help. Since that call, he’s stopped responding to any of her texts.The distressing call eats at Dot as she tries to get through her first (not-so-good) day of school. But she also knows why her father would call her for help: She’s a webtective, someone who scours the Internet in search of leads to answer all of her questions. And when an anonymous account messages Dot one such lead, it isn’t long before she’s on the case.And as Dot, along with trusty friends Makayla and Alex, unravel this mystery, they’ll find both Scripture and danger alike connected to the adventure. It was released in 2025 and is 1h 25m and rated PG. Can be seen on Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV from $4.99, Fandango at Home from $3.99, Google Play Movies from $3.99, Sling TV with subscription, The Roku Channel for free, Sling TV with subscription, Tubi for free, YouTube for free, and YouTube with subscription.

    Here as some new movies that you’ll find interesting for family movie nights. Hope you enjoy. Thank you for your continued readership and support. Blessings and Peace!

    © Rhema International 2024. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Rhema International.

    #BenjaminFranklin #GeorgeWhitefield #AGreatAwakening #ChristianMovieReviews #ChristianMovies #DavidABattleForTheSoulOfAKingdom #DotConnerWebtective #JohnOLeary #MovieReviews #OnAWingAndAPrayer #SoulOnFire
  7. One of Patriot Front's newest recruits is a former Navy SEAL combat medic who put his thumb on the scales, possibly committing perjury, to help a war criminal evade accountability.

    Corey Noel Scott of Oklahoma testified during a court martial in 2019 that he himself killed an unarmed captive who had been stabbed, without provocation, by his platoon leader while they were stationed in Iraq. That testimony seems to have played a big part in getting the platoon leader acquitted of murder charges.

    The trial happened during Trump's first term, and then-Fox "News" host Pete Hegseth personally intervened on behalf of the defendant in that case (a defendant who had openly bragged about actually stabbing the victim in text messages).

    The Informant got hold of Scott's secret Patriot Front recruitment interview notes, in addition to finding his X/Twitter account (which he promptly deleted after he was contacted about it). All of it points toward explicitly neo-nazi views.

    ===

    The Informant has done some really great investigative journalism about this stuff, although the volume of their output hasn't been very high these past few years. Still, I strongly recommend subscribing, if keeping up with developments in the US far right is your thing, because when they do publish, it's solidly researched and reliable.

    informant.news/patriot-front-c

    #PatriotFront #CoreyScott #NavySEALs #EddieGallagher #WarCrimes #Hegseth #Trump #NeoNazis #fcknzs #Oklahoma #ThomasRousseau #BenjaminOK

  8. ”Det här är inte slutet”, sa Benjamin Netanyahu. Sedan hördes nya smällar över Iran. ”USA måste välja – vapenvila eller fortsatt krig via Israel”, säger utrikes#krig #benjaminnetanyahu #israel #usa
    Kravet från Iran: ”USA måste välja”
  9. Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

    Good Morning!!

    Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:

    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

    The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

    *many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬

    The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

    Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:

    According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.

    The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:

    • The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.

    • Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.

    • US military withdrawal from the Middle East.

    • An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.

    • The release of frozen Iranian assets.

    • A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.

    That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.

    And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.

    Major developments we’re following:

    • Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
    • All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
    • Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
    • The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.

    Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

    THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:

    The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

    Here are some Iran war reads to check out:

    Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’

    Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.

    In today’s Playbook …

    — The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]

    WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.

    So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.

    And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.

    So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….

    But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?

    The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

    Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.

    And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.

    Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”

    Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

    Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

    “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

    “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”

    After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

    “If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

    Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”

    In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

    Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

    In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

    “Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.

    In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

    The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

    David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.

    Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

    The Strait of Hormuz

    Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.

    But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.

    It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.

    It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.

    And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.

    It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

    Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.

    On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

    And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

    “Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”

    So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    “Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

    Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.

    Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.

    Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….

    Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.

    • The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
    • That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
    • By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.

    The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

    • Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
    • The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
    • China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
    • But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.

    How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

    • Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
    • Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
    • Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.

    By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

    There’s more at the Axios link.

    William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.

    I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

    That was a month ago.

    Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economistput it:

    So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.

    Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”

    But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.

    We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.

    We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.

    We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.

    We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.

    We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.

    What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”

    That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.

    #BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
  10. Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

    Good Morning!!

    Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:

    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

    The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

    *many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬

    The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

    Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:

    According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.

    The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:

    • The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.

    • Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.

    • US military withdrawal from the Middle East.

    • An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.

    • The release of frozen Iranian assets.

    • A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.

    That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.

    And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.

    Major developments we’re following:

    • Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
    • All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
    • Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
    • The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.

    Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

    THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:

    The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

    Here are some Iran war reads to check out:

    Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’

    Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.

    In today’s Playbook …

    — The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]

    WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.

    So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.

    And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.

    So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….

    But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?

    The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

    Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.

    And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.

    Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”

    Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

    Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

    “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

    “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”

    After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

    “If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

    Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”

    In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

    Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

    In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

    “Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.

    In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

    The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

    David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.

    Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

    The Strait of Hormuz

    Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.

    But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.

    It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.

    It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.

    And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.

    It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

    Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.

    On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

    And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

    “Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”

    So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    “Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

    Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.

    Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.

    Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….

    Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.

    • The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
    • That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
    • By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.

    The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

    • Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
    • The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
    • China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
    • But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.

    How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

    • Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
    • Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
    • Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.

    By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

    There’s more at the Axios link.

    William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.

    I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

    That was a month ago.

    Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economistput it:

    So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.

    Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”

    But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.

    We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.

    We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.

    We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.

    We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.

    We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.

    What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”

    That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.

    #BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
  11. Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

    Good Morning!!

    Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:

    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

    The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

    *many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬

    The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

    Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:

    According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.

    The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:

    • The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.

    • Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.

    • US military withdrawal from the Middle East.

    • An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.

    • The release of frozen Iranian assets.

    • A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.

    That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.

    And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.

    Major developments we’re following:

    • Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
    • All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
    • Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
    • The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.

    Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

    THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:

    The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

    Here are some Iran war reads to check out:

    Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’

    Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.

    In today’s Playbook …

    — The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]

    WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.

    So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.

    And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.

    So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….

    But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?

    The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

    Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.

    And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.

    Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”

    Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

    Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

    “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

    “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”

    After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

    “If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

    Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”

    In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

    Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

    In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

    “Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.

    In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

    The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

    David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.

    Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

    The Strait of Hormuz

    Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.

    But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.

    It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.

    It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.

    And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.

    It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

    Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.

    On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

    And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

    “Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”

    So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    “Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

    Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.

    Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.

    Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….

    Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.

    • The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
    • That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
    • By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.

    The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

    • Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
    • The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
    • China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
    • But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.

    How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

    • Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
    • Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
    • Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.

    By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

    There’s more at the Axios link.

    William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.

    I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

    That was a month ago.

    Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economistput it:

    So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.

    Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”

    But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.

    We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.

    We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.

    We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.

    We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.

    We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.

    What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”

    That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.

    #BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
  12. Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

    Good Morning!!

    Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:

    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

    The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

    *many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬

    The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

    Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:

    According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.

    The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:

    • The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.

    • Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.

    • US military withdrawal from the Middle East.

    • An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.

    • The release of frozen Iranian assets.

    • A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.

    That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.

    And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.

    Major developments we’re following:

    • Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
    • All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
    • Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
    • The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.

    Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

    THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:

    The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

    Here are some Iran war reads to check out:

    Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’

    Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.

    In today’s Playbook …

    — The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]

    WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.

    So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.

    And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.

    So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….

    But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?

    The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

    Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.

    And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.

    Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”

    Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

    Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

    “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

    “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”

    After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

    “If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

    Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”

    In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

    Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

    In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

    “Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.

    In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

    The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

    David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.

    Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

    The Strait of Hormuz

    Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.

    But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.

    It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.

    It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.

    And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.

    It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

    Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.

    On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

    And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

    “Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”

    So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    “Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

    Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.

    Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.

    Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….

    Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.

    • The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
    • That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
    • By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.

    The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

    • Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
    • The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
    • China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
    • But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.

    How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

    • Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
    • Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
    • Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.

    By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

    There’s more at the Axios link.

    William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.

    I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

    That was a month ago.

    Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

    So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economistput it:

    So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.

    Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”

    But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.

    We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.

    We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.

    We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.

    We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.

    We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.

    What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”

    That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.

    #BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
  13. The above Sinclair Lewis-inspired quote was the opening of an article about #WhiskyPete #Hegseth who it looks like is being set up as the #FallGuy for the catastrophic #FelonsCrusade in #Iran that was started by #DonaldTrump and #BenjaminNetanyahu. counterpunch.org/2026/04/07/pe

  14. A screenshot from running a dockerized pre-commit.

    And here's the whole darn alias 🥳

    ```
    $ which pre-commit
    pre-commit: aliased to docker run -v "pre-commit-cache":/home/dockeruser/.cache -v "$(pwd)":/repo:rw -e PRECOMMITALIAS="$(alias pre-commit)" -e PGID="$(id -g)" -e PUID="$(id -u)" pre-commit:python3.14
    ```

    Instructions on building and running it are in the repo ⬇️
    codeberg.org/benjaoming/pre-co

    #precommit

  15. A screenshot from running a dockerized pre-commit.

    And here's the whole darn alias 🥳

    ```
    $ which pre-commit
    pre-commit: aliased to docker run -v "pre-commit-cache":/home/dockeruser/.cache -v "$(pwd)":/repo:rw -e PRECOMMITALIAS="$(alias pre-commit)" -e PGID="$(id -g)" -e PUID="$(id -u)" pre-commit:python3.14
    ```

    Instructions on building and running it are in the repo ⬇️
    codeberg.org/benjaoming/pre-co

    #precommit

  16. A screenshot from running a dockerized pre-commit.

    And here's the whole darn alias 🥳

    ```
    $ which pre-commit
    pre-commit: aliased to docker run -v "pre-commit-cache":/home/dockeruser/.cache -v "$(pwd)":/repo:rw -e PRECOMMITALIAS="$(alias pre-commit)" -e PGID="$(id -g)" -e PUID="$(id -u)" pre-commit:python3.14
    ```

    Instructions on building and running it are in the repo ⬇️
    codeberg.org/benjaoming/pre-co

    #precommit

  17. A screenshot from running a dockerized pre-commit.

    And here's the whole darn alias 🥳

    ```
    $ which pre-commit
    pre-commit: aliased to docker run -v "pre-commit-cache":/home/dockeruser/.cache -v "$(pwd)":/repo:rw -e PRECOMMITALIAS="$(alias pre-commit)" -e PGID="$(id -g)" -e PUID="$(id -u)" pre-commit:python3.14
    ```

    Instructions on building and running it are in the repo ⬇️
    codeberg.org/benjaoming/pre-co

    #precommit

  18. A screenshot from running a dockerized pre-commit.

    And here's the whole darn alias 🥳

    ```
    $ which pre-commit
    pre-commit: aliased to docker run -v "pre-commit-cache":/home/dockeruser/.cache -v "$(pwd)":/repo:rw -e PRECOMMITALIAS="$(alias pre-commit)" -e PGID="$(id -g)" -e PUID="$(id -u)" pre-commit:python3.14
    ```

    Instructions on building and running it are in the repo ⬇️
    codeberg.org/benjaoming/pre-co

    #precommit

  19. Dimitri Lascaris Deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.


    Posted by Jerry Alatalo | April 4, 2026

    [Editor’s note: Here is my brief comment in response to Dimitri Lascaris’ outstanding, profound Iran War reporting:

    Thank you for compiling an amazing, immeasurably important body of reporting.

    Notable contemporaries of Ernest Hemingway as war correspondents include Marguerite Higgins, who reported during World War II and the Korean War, Peter Arnett, who covered the Vietnam War and the Gulf War, and Martha Gellhorn, who reported on virtually every major world conflict that took place during her 60-year career, and was the third wife of American novelist Ernest Hemingway from 1940 to 1945 .

    It is not unreasonable, but entirely rational, to suggest or predict that Dimitri Lascaris will become only the second war correspondent ever to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

    Carl von Ossietzky is a notable war correspondent who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1935 for his work in exposing German rearmament.

    Carl von Ossietzky was recognized for his courageous journalism that revealed the extent of Germany’s military buildup, which was in violation of the Treaty of Versailles. His work highlighted the dangers of militarism and the need for peace in Europe during a time of rising tensions.

    The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Carl von Ossietzky in 1935 is significant because it recognized his courageous opposition to German militarism and his efforts to expose the country’s secret rearmament during a time when he was imprisoned in a Nazi concentration camp. His award highlighted the international condemnation of the Nazi regime and underscored the importance of freedom of thought and expression.]

    *

    Saturday April 4, 2026 marks the 58th anniversary of the death of Reverend Martin Luther King Jr., fatally shot on April 4, 1968 in Memphis, Tennessee.

    Although Martin Luther King Jr. did not directly end the Vietnam War, his efforts significantly contributed to the anti-war movement and highlighted the moral and social injustices associated with the conflict. His legacy continues to inspire movements for peace and justice today.

    Thank you, Dimitri Lascaris.

    One Battle After Another…

    Peace.

    https://youtu.be/x7-droK5c8k?si=2pFem_By1y-ty0OD

    #BenjaminNetanyahu #CarlVonOssietzky #DonaldTrump #Economics #IranWar #NobelPeacePrizeLaureates #Philosophy #WarReporters
  20. @benjamin #niort #melle
    Je crois qu'il y aura contre-évènement sur place pour celleux dans les parages 😁