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Mimi @[email protected] · 2026-04-29 · 08:36 UTC

Satellites - C'est ce qu'on appelle une réaction en chaine, le même phénomène moteur que celui des explosions nucléaires. Ici, c'est appliqué aux satellites en orbite basse qui sont devenus tellement nombreux et dont le nazi milliardaire d'Afrique du Sud pourrissant toutes les sociétés veut encore augmenter le nombre à plus d'un million alors que c'est déjà un embouteillage dérivant à 27 000 km/h : le moindre événement perturbateur, vent solaire, orage magnétique ou autre pouvant rendre aléatoires et chaotiques les contrôles à distance parant aux collisions, et qui arrivera, va en déclencher une cascade exponentielle exactement comme une réaction nucléaire à masse critique : complètement et parfaitement incontrôlable. Ceci d'autant plus violemment que tout satellite désintégré se transforme en un nuage de débris tout autant à très haute vitesse, chacun d'eux étant capable de déchirer et/ou pulvériser d'autres satellites. Le réseau satellitaire de basse altitude peut donc se retrouver totalement atomisé lui-même, désintégrant du même coup de façon aussi brutale et soudaine l'essentiel des télécommunications, internet inclus, observations satellitaires, etc. Tout ça juste sur un gros orage magnétique ou perturbation solaire comme il y en a quasiment tout le temps à l'échelle géologique.
Je me demande si le "génie" autoproclamé "Asperger" a, dans son délire mégalomaniaque spatial, été assez intelligent pour le voir venir et j'ai bien l'impression que la réponse est non vu son objectif d'un million de satellites privés.
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Traduction de https://scitechdaily.com/2-8-days-to-disaster-scientists-warn-low-earth-orbit-could-suddenly-collapse/
-----
2,8 jours avant la catastrophe : des scientifiques mettent en garde contre l'effondrement brutal de tout le réseau de satellites en orbite basse
Par SciTechDaily.com - 28 avril 2026
[Image : Débris spatiaux – Satellites en orbite autour de la Terre - Une nouvelle étude suggère que les réseaux satellitaires modernes sont bien plus fragiles qu’il n’y paraît, le risque de collisions orbitales augmentant fortement en cas de perturbation des systèmes de contrôle. Crédit : Shutterstock]
Une nouvelle étude alerte que si les opérateurs de satellites perdent brusquement le contrôle suite à une perturbation majeure, une catastrophique série de collisions en orbite pourrait se produire en seulement 2,8 jours.
Une importante tempête solaire n’a pas besoin de détruire directement les satellites pour provoquer une crise. Il suffit qu’elle interrompe le suivi, les commandes et les manœuvres d’évitement qui maintiennent sous contrôle l’environnement satellitaire actuellement de plus en plus dense. Ce risque s’accroît à mesure qu'on surcharge l’orbite terrestre basse de méga-constellations de satellites, de vastes réseaux de satellites lancés et remplacés à un rythme soutenu. Ces engins spatiaux fournissent l’accès à Internet, les communications, la surveillance météorologique, la navigation et d’autres services. Ceci étant, ça concourt à la congestion d'une région orbitale où les objets se déplacent à environ 27 000 km/h.
Une nouvelle étude, menée par Sarah Thiele, qui a débuté ses travaux en tant que doctorante à l'Université de Colombie-Britannique et travaille désormais à Princeton, tente de mesurer la fragilité de ce système. L'étude introduit un indicateur appelé « Horloge CRASH » (Collision Realization And Significant Harm), qui évalue le délai avant qu'une grave série de collisions ne se produise si les satellites ne peuvent plus être manœuvrés ou si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité de connaître leur position. Le résultat est alarmant. À partir des données du catalogue de satellites de juin 2025, les chercheurs ont calculé que si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité d'envoyer les ordres de manœuvre d'évitement, une dantesque série de collisions pourrait se produire en environ 2,8 jours. Une version plus large de l'Horloge CRASH prenant en compte toutes les interactions des objets spatiaux en orbite donne un délai de 5,5 jours. En 2018, avant l'expansion rapide des méga-constellations de satellites, ce délai était de 164 jours.
Les tempêtes solaires : une menace systémique
Les satellites en orbite terrestre basse ne suivent pas des trajectoires fixes. Leur fonctionnement repose sur le maintien à poste, la mise à jour des données de suivi et les manœuvres d'évitement de collision. Selon le dernier rapport bisannuel de SpaceX cité dans l'étude, les satellites Starlink ont effectué 144 404 manœuvres d'évitement entre le 1ᵉʳ décembre 2024 et le 31 mai 2025. Cela représente en moyenne 41 manœuvres par satellite et par an, soit une manœuvre d'évitement toutes les 1,8 minutes sur l'ensemble du réseau Starlink.
[Photo : Trajectoires des satellites Starlink (février 2024). Crédit : NASA Scientific Visualization Studio]
Lors d'une tempête solaire majeure, ce système, pourtant géré avec précision, peut devenir plus difficile à contrôler. Les tempêtes solaires réchauffent la haute atmosphère terrestre, provoquant son expansion. Cette expansion accroît la résistance de l'air sur les satellites, les dévie de leurs trajectoires, oblige les opérateurs à consommer du carburant pour les maintenir à leur altitude et rend moins fiables la prévision de leur orbite. La "tempête de Gannon" de mai 2024 a démontré l'ampleur des perturbations que peut engendrer ce phénomène : près de la moitié des satellites actifs en orbite terrestre basse ont dû être manœuvrés à cause de l'augmentation de la résistance de l'atmosphère. L'étude relève que ces nombreux repositionnements combinés à une résistance imprévisible ont considérablement compliqué l'évaluation des risques de collision pendant et après la tempête. Le danger s'accroît si une tempête perturbe également la navigation, les communications ou le contrôle au sol. Dans ce cas, les satellites deviennent plus difficiles à suivre juste au moment où ils deviennent plus lents à réagir.
Pourquoi une seule collision est cruciale
Le syndrome de Kessler est la version la plus connue de ce type de catastrophe. Des collisions en cascade saturent l'orbite de débris et finissent par rendre extrêmement difficile le lancement et l'exploitation de vaisseaux spatiaux en toute sécurité. Néanmoins ce scénario d'emballement prendrait des années, voire des décennies, à se concrétiser. Les chercheurs ont introduit un nouvel indicateur, l'horloge CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) qui estime la rapidité avec laquelle une collision majeure, génératrice de débris, pourrait se produire si le contrôle et la coordination des satellites actifs étaient perturbés, ce afin de bien voir le danger beaucoup plus immédiat. Même un seul impact à grande vitesse peut avoir des conséquences à long terme. Une collision entre de gros objets peut créer des milliers de fragments, chacun constituant un nouveau danger. L'environnement actuel des débris spatiaux est encore marqué par l'essai anti-satellite chinois de 2007 impliquant Fengyun 1C et la collision de 2009 entre Iridium 33 et Kosmos 2251. La nouvelle étude révèle que les zones les plus denses des réseaux satellitaires actuels sont particulièrement préoccupantes. L'enveloppe principale de Starlink à environ 550 kilomètres d'altitude atteint des densités plus de dix fois supérieures au pic de densité des débris suivis vers 800 kilomètres d'altitude.
Une marge d'erreur de plus en plus réduite
Les chercheurs estiment que sur l'ensemble de l'orbite terrestre basse des croisements à moins d'un kilomètre de distance se produisent toutes les 36 secondes. Les rencontres entre au moins deux satellites ont lieu environ toutes les 41 secondes, celles entre un satellite Starlink et un autre objet spatial environ toutes les 47 secondes. Un croisement rapproché n'équivaut pas à une collision. Les opérateurs évaluent la distance, la taille du satellite, l'incertitude et la probabilité de collision avant de décider de le déplacer ou pas. Quoi qu'il en soit, la fréquence de ces rencontres démontre à quel point les orbites dépendent d'un contrôle rapide, précis et coordonné. Les tempêtes solaires majeures sont rares mais bien réelles. La tempête de Gannon de mai 2024 a été la plus puissante tempête géomagnétique de ces dernières décennies. L'événement de Carrington en septembre 1859 était au moins deux fois plus intense, selon l'étude, et a comporté deux fortes tempêtes en quelques jours. Si une tempête de l'ampleur de Carrington se produisait aujourd'hui elle frapperait un monde fortement dépendant des satellites pour les communications, la synchronisation, l'observation de la Terre, les prévisions météorologiques, les opérations militaires, la gestion des catastrophes, la finance et la navigation. Elle impacterait un environnement orbital bien plus encombré qu'il y a seulement dix ans. En plus du risque de collisions, les méga-constellations de satellites participent aussi à la multiplication des débris spatiaux, aux rentrées atmosphériques accidentelles, aux perturbations des observations d'astronomie et à la pollution atmosphérique. L'étude ne préconise pas la suppression des satellites, elle pointe une vulnérabilité critique. L'orbite terrestre basse repose désormais sur un contrôle constant et précis et si ce contrôle est interrompu, la fenêtre d'opportunité permettant d'éviter une série de collisions majeure pourrait se réduire à quelques jours seulement.
Référence : "An orbital house of cards: Frequent megaconstellation close conjunctions" (= Un château de cartes orbital : les fréquentes conjonctions rapprochées de mégaconstellations) par Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley et Samantha M. Lawler, 10 décembre 2025, arXiv.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.09643
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#Science #Astrophysics #Satellites #Musk #Starlink #SolarStorms #SpaceDebris #SpaceWeather

#science #astrophysics #satellites #musk #starlink #solarstorms
Mimi @[email protected] · 2026-04-29 · 08:36 UTC

Satellites - C'est ce qu'on appelle une réaction en chaine, le même phénomène moteur que celui des explosions nucléaires. Ici, c'est appliqué aux satellites en orbite basse qui sont devenus tellement nombreux et dont le nazi milliardaire d'Afrique du Sud pourrissant toutes les sociétés veut encore augmenter le nombre à plus d'un million alors que c'est déjà un embouteillage dérivant à 27 000 km/h : le moindre événement perturbateur, vent solaire, orage magnétique ou autre pouvant rendre aléatoires et chaotiques les contrôles à distance parant aux collisions, et qui arrivera, va en déclencher une cascade exponentielle exactement comme une réaction nucléaire à masse critique : complètement et parfaitement incontrôlable. Ceci d'autant plus violemment que tout satellite désintégré se transforme en un nuage de débris tout autant à très haute vitesse, chacun d'eux étant capable de déchirer et/ou pulvériser d'autres satellites. Le réseau satellitaire de basse altitude peut donc se retrouver totalement atomisé lui-même, désintégrant du même coup de façon aussi brutale et soudaine l'essentiel des télécommunications, internet inclus, observations satellitaires, etc. Tout ça juste sur un gros orage magnétique ou perturbation solaire comme il y en a quasiment tout le temps à l'échelle géologique.
Je me demande si le "génie" autoproclamé "Asperger" a, dans son délire mégalomaniaque spatial, été assez intelligent pour le voir venir et j'ai bien l'impression que la réponse est non vu son objectif d'un million de satellites privés.
-----
Traduction de https://scitechdaily.com/2-8-days-to-disaster-scientists-warn-low-earth-orbit-could-suddenly-collapse/
-----
2,8 jours avant la catastrophe : des scientifiques mettent en garde contre l'effondrement brutal de tout le réseau de satellites en orbite basse
Par SciTechDaily.com - 28 avril 2026
[Image : Débris spatiaux – Satellites en orbite autour de la Terre - Une nouvelle étude suggère que les réseaux satellitaires modernes sont bien plus fragiles qu’il n’y paraît, le risque de collisions orbitales augmentant fortement en cas de perturbation des systèmes de contrôle. Crédit : Shutterstock]
Une nouvelle étude alerte que si les opérateurs de satellites perdent brusquement le contrôle suite à une perturbation majeure, une catastrophique série de collisions en orbite pourrait se produire en seulement 2,8 jours.
Une importante tempête solaire n’a pas besoin de détruire directement les satellites pour provoquer une crise. Il suffit qu’elle interrompe le suivi, les commandes et les manœuvres d’évitement qui maintiennent sous contrôle l’environnement satellitaire actuellement de plus en plus dense. Ce risque s’accroît à mesure qu'on surcharge l’orbite terrestre basse de méga-constellations de satellites, de vastes réseaux de satellites lancés et remplacés à un rythme soutenu. Ces engins spatiaux fournissent l’accès à Internet, les communications, la surveillance météorologique, la navigation et d’autres services. Ceci étant, ça concourt à la congestion d'une région orbitale où les objets se déplacent à environ 27 000 km/h.
Une nouvelle étude, menée par Sarah Thiele, qui a débuté ses travaux en tant que doctorante à l'Université de Colombie-Britannique et travaille désormais à Princeton, tente de mesurer la fragilité de ce système. L'étude introduit un indicateur appelé « Horloge CRASH » (Collision Realization And Significant Harm), qui évalue le délai avant qu'une grave série de collisions ne se produise si les satellites ne peuvent plus être manœuvrés ou si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité de connaître leur position. Le résultat est alarmant. À partir des données du catalogue de satellites de juin 2025, les chercheurs ont calculé que si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité d'envoyer les ordres de manœuvre d'évitement, une dantesque série de collisions pourrait se produire en environ 2,8 jours. Une version plus large de l'Horloge CRASH prenant en compte toutes les interactions des objets spatiaux en orbite donne un délai de 5,5 jours. En 2018, avant l'expansion rapide des méga-constellations de satellites, ce délai était de 164 jours.
Les tempêtes solaires : une menace systémique
Les satellites en orbite terrestre basse ne suivent pas des trajectoires fixes. Leur fonctionnement repose sur le maintien à poste, la mise à jour des données de suivi et les manœuvres d'évitement de collision. Selon le dernier rapport bisannuel de SpaceX cité dans l'étude, les satellites Starlink ont effectué 144 404 manœuvres d'évitement entre le 1ᵉʳ décembre 2024 et le 31 mai 2025. Cela représente en moyenne 41 manœuvres par satellite et par an, soit une manœuvre d'évitement toutes les 1,8 minutes sur l'ensemble du réseau Starlink.
[Photo : Trajectoires des satellites Starlink (février 2024). Crédit : NASA Scientific Visualization Studio]
Lors d'une tempête solaire majeure, ce système, pourtant géré avec précision, peut devenir plus difficile à contrôler. Les tempêtes solaires réchauffent la haute atmosphère terrestre, provoquant son expansion. Cette expansion accroît la résistance de l'air sur les satellites, les dévie de leurs trajectoires, oblige les opérateurs à consommer du carburant pour les maintenir à leur altitude et rend moins fiables la prévision de leur orbite. La "tempête de Gannon" de mai 2024 a démontré l'ampleur des perturbations que peut engendrer ce phénomène : près de la moitié des satellites actifs en orbite terrestre basse ont dû être manœuvrés à cause de l'augmentation de la résistance de l'atmosphère. L'étude relève que ces nombreux repositionnements combinés à une résistance imprévisible ont considérablement compliqué l'évaluation des risques de collision pendant et après la tempête. Le danger s'accroît si une tempête perturbe également la navigation, les communications ou le contrôle au sol. Dans ce cas, les satellites deviennent plus difficiles à suivre juste au moment où ils deviennent plus lents à réagir.
Pourquoi une seule collision est cruciale
Le syndrome de Kessler est la version la plus connue de ce type de catastrophe. Des collisions en cascade saturent l'orbite de débris et finissent par rendre extrêmement difficile le lancement et l'exploitation de vaisseaux spatiaux en toute sécurité. Néanmoins ce scénario d'emballement prendrait des années, voire des décennies, à se concrétiser. Les chercheurs ont introduit un nouvel indicateur, l'horloge CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) qui estime la rapidité avec laquelle une collision majeure, génératrice de débris, pourrait se produire si le contrôle et la coordination des satellites actifs étaient perturbés, ce afin de bien voir le danger beaucoup plus immédiat. Même un seul impact à grande vitesse peut avoir des conséquences à long terme. Une collision entre de gros objets peut créer des milliers de fragments, chacun constituant un nouveau danger. L'environnement actuel des débris spatiaux est encore marqué par l'essai anti-satellite chinois de 2007 impliquant Fengyun 1C et la collision de 2009 entre Iridium 33 et Kosmos 2251. La nouvelle étude révèle que les zones les plus denses des réseaux satellitaires actuels sont particulièrement préoccupantes. L'enveloppe principale de Starlink à environ 550 kilomètres d'altitude atteint des densités plus de dix fois supérieures au pic de densité des débris suivis vers 800 kilomètres d'altitude.
Une marge d'erreur de plus en plus réduite
Les chercheurs estiment que sur l'ensemble de l'orbite terrestre basse des croisements à moins d'un kilomètre de distance se produisent toutes les 36 secondes. Les rencontres entre au moins deux satellites ont lieu environ toutes les 41 secondes, celles entre un satellite Starlink et un autre objet spatial environ toutes les 47 secondes. Un croisement rapproché n'équivaut pas à une collision. Les opérateurs évaluent la distance, la taille du satellite, l'incertitude et la probabilité de collision avant de décider de le déplacer ou pas. Quoi qu'il en soit, la fréquence de ces rencontres démontre à quel point les orbites dépendent d'un contrôle rapide, précis et coordonné. Les tempêtes solaires majeures sont rares mais bien réelles. La tempête de Gannon de mai 2024 a été la plus puissante tempête géomagnétique de ces dernières décennies. L'événement de Carrington en septembre 1859 était au moins deux fois plus intense, selon l'étude, et a comporté deux fortes tempêtes en quelques jours. Si une tempête de l'ampleur de Carrington se produisait aujourd'hui elle frapperait un monde fortement dépendant des satellites pour les communications, la synchronisation, l'observation de la Terre, les prévisions météorologiques, les opérations militaires, la gestion des catastrophes, la finance et la navigation. Elle impacterait un environnement orbital bien plus encombré qu'il y a seulement dix ans. En plus du risque de collisions, les méga-constellations de satellites participent aussi à la multiplication des débris spatiaux, aux rentrées atmosphériques accidentelles, aux perturbations des observations d'astronomie et à la pollution atmosphérique. L'étude ne préconise pas la suppression des satellites, elle pointe une vulnérabilité critique. L'orbite terrestre basse repose désormais sur un contrôle constant et précis et si ce contrôle est interrompu, la fenêtre d'opportunité permettant d'éviter une série de collisions majeure pourrait se réduire à quelques jours seulement.
Référence : "An orbital house of cards: Frequent megaconstellation close conjunctions" (= Un château de cartes orbital : les fréquentes conjonctions rapprochées de mégaconstellations) par Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley et Samantha M. Lawler, 10 décembre 2025, arXiv.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.09643
-----
#Science #Astrophysics #Satellites #Musk #Starlink #SolarStorms #SpaceDebris #SpaceWeather

#science #astrophysics #satellites #musk #starlink #solarstorms
Mimi @[email protected] · 2026-04-29 · 08:36 UTC

Satellites - C'est ce qu'on appelle une réaction en chaine, le même phénomène moteur que celui des explosions nucléaires. Ici, c'est appliqué aux satellites en orbite basse qui sont devenus tellement nombreux et dont le nazi milliardaire d'Afrique du Sud pourrissant toutes les sociétés veut encore augmenter le nombre à plus d'un million alors que c'est déjà un embouteillage dérivant à 27 000 km/h : le moindre événement perturbateur, vent solaire, orage magnétique ou autre pouvant rendre aléatoires et chaotiques les contrôles à distance parant aux collisions, et qui arrivera, va en déclencher une cascade exponentielle exactement comme une réaction nucléaire à masse critique : complètement et parfaitement incontrôlable. Ceci d'autant plus violemment que tout satellite désintégré se transforme en un nuage de débris tout autant à très haute vitesse, chacun d'eux étant capable de déchirer et/ou pulvériser d'autres satellites. Le réseau satellitaire de basse altitude peut donc se retrouver totalement atomisé lui-même, désintégrant du même coup de façon aussi brutale et soudaine l'essentiel des télécommunications, internet inclus, observations satellitaires, etc. Tout ça juste sur un gros orage magnétique ou perturbation solaire comme il y en a quasiment tout le temps à l'échelle géologique.
Je me demande si le "génie" autoproclamé "Asperger" a, dans son délire mégalomaniaque spatial, été assez intelligent pour le voir venir et j'ai bien l'impression que la réponse est non vu son objectif d'un million de satellites privés.
-----
Traduction de https://scitechdaily.com/2-8-days-to-disaster-scientists-warn-low-earth-orbit-could-suddenly-collapse/
-----
2,8 jours avant la catastrophe : des scientifiques mettent en garde contre l'effondrement brutal de tout le réseau de satellites en orbite basse
Par SciTechDaily.com - 28 avril 2026
[Image : Débris spatiaux – Satellites en orbite autour de la Terre - Une nouvelle étude suggère que les réseaux satellitaires modernes sont bien plus fragiles qu’il n’y paraît, le risque de collisions orbitales augmentant fortement en cas de perturbation des systèmes de contrôle. Crédit : Shutterstock]
Une nouvelle étude alerte que si les opérateurs de satellites perdent brusquement le contrôle suite à une perturbation majeure, une catastrophique série de collisions en orbite pourrait se produire en seulement 2,8 jours.
Une importante tempête solaire n’a pas besoin de détruire directement les satellites pour provoquer une crise. Il suffit qu’elle interrompe le suivi, les commandes et les manœuvres d’évitement qui maintiennent sous contrôle l’environnement satellitaire actuellement de plus en plus dense. Ce risque s’accroît à mesure qu'on surcharge l’orbite terrestre basse de méga-constellations de satellites, de vastes réseaux de satellites lancés et remplacés à un rythme soutenu. Ces engins spatiaux fournissent l’accès à Internet, les communications, la surveillance météorologique, la navigation et d’autres services. Ceci étant, ça concourt à la congestion d'une région orbitale où les objets se déplacent à environ 27 000 km/h.
Une nouvelle étude, menée par Sarah Thiele, qui a débuté ses travaux en tant que doctorante à l'Université de Colombie-Britannique et travaille désormais à Princeton, tente de mesurer la fragilité de ce système. L'étude introduit un indicateur appelé « Horloge CRASH » (Collision Realization And Significant Harm), qui évalue le délai avant qu'une grave série de collisions ne se produise si les satellites ne peuvent plus être manœuvrés ou si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité de connaître leur position. Le résultat est alarmant. À partir des données du catalogue de satellites de juin 2025, les chercheurs ont calculé que si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité d'envoyer les ordres de manœuvre d'évitement, une dantesque série de collisions pourrait se produire en environ 2,8 jours. Une version plus large de l'Horloge CRASH prenant en compte toutes les interactions des objets spatiaux en orbite donne un délai de 5,5 jours. En 2018, avant l'expansion rapide des méga-constellations de satellites, ce délai était de 164 jours.
Les tempêtes solaires : une menace systémique
Les satellites en orbite terrestre basse ne suivent pas des trajectoires fixes. Leur fonctionnement repose sur le maintien à poste, la mise à jour des données de suivi et les manœuvres d'évitement de collision. Selon le dernier rapport bisannuel de SpaceX cité dans l'étude, les satellites Starlink ont effectué 144 404 manœuvres d'évitement entre le 1ᵉʳ décembre 2024 et le 31 mai 2025. Cela représente en moyenne 41 manœuvres par satellite et par an, soit une manœuvre d'évitement toutes les 1,8 minutes sur l'ensemble du réseau Starlink.
[Photo : Trajectoires des satellites Starlink (février 2024). Crédit : NASA Scientific Visualization Studio]
Lors d'une tempête solaire majeure, ce système, pourtant géré avec précision, peut devenir plus difficile à contrôler. Les tempêtes solaires réchauffent la haute atmosphère terrestre, provoquant son expansion. Cette expansion accroît la résistance de l'air sur les satellites, les dévie de leurs trajectoires, oblige les opérateurs à consommer du carburant pour les maintenir à leur altitude et rend moins fiables la prévision de leur orbite. La "tempête de Gannon" de mai 2024 a démontré l'ampleur des perturbations que peut engendrer ce phénomène : près de la moitié des satellites actifs en orbite terrestre basse ont dû être manœuvrés à cause de l'augmentation de la résistance de l'atmosphère. L'étude relève que ces nombreux repositionnements combinés à une résistance imprévisible ont considérablement compliqué l'évaluation des risques de collision pendant et après la tempête. Le danger s'accroît si une tempête perturbe également la navigation, les communications ou le contrôle au sol. Dans ce cas, les satellites deviennent plus difficiles à suivre juste au moment où ils deviennent plus lents à réagir.
Pourquoi une seule collision est cruciale
Le syndrome de Kessler est la version la plus connue de ce type de catastrophe. Des collisions en cascade saturent l'orbite de débris et finissent par rendre extrêmement difficile le lancement et l'exploitation de vaisseaux spatiaux en toute sécurité. Néanmoins ce scénario d'emballement prendrait des années, voire des décennies, à se concrétiser. Les chercheurs ont introduit un nouvel indicateur, l'horloge CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) qui estime la rapidité avec laquelle une collision majeure, génératrice de débris, pourrait se produire si le contrôle et la coordination des satellites actifs étaient perturbés, ce afin de bien voir le danger beaucoup plus immédiat. Même un seul impact à grande vitesse peut avoir des conséquences à long terme. Une collision entre de gros objets peut créer des milliers de fragments, chacun constituant un nouveau danger. L'environnement actuel des débris spatiaux est encore marqué par l'essai anti-satellite chinois de 2007 impliquant Fengyun 1C et la collision de 2009 entre Iridium 33 et Kosmos 2251. La nouvelle étude révèle que les zones les plus denses des réseaux satellitaires actuels sont particulièrement préoccupantes. L'enveloppe principale de Starlink à environ 550 kilomètres d'altitude atteint des densités plus de dix fois supérieures au pic de densité des débris suivis vers 800 kilomètres d'altitude.
Une marge d'erreur de plus en plus réduite
Les chercheurs estiment que sur l'ensemble de l'orbite terrestre basse des croisements à moins d'un kilomètre de distance se produisent toutes les 36 secondes. Les rencontres entre au moins deux satellites ont lieu environ toutes les 41 secondes, celles entre un satellite Starlink et un autre objet spatial environ toutes les 47 secondes. Un croisement rapproché n'équivaut pas à une collision. Les opérateurs évaluent la distance, la taille du satellite, l'incertitude et la probabilité de collision avant de décider de le déplacer ou pas. Quoi qu'il en soit, la fréquence de ces rencontres démontre à quel point les orbites dépendent d'un contrôle rapide, précis et coordonné. Les tempêtes solaires majeures sont rares mais bien réelles. La tempête de Gannon de mai 2024 a été la plus puissante tempête géomagnétique de ces dernières décennies. L'événement de Carrington en septembre 1859 était au moins deux fois plus intense, selon l'étude, et a comporté deux fortes tempêtes en quelques jours. Si une tempête de l'ampleur de Carrington se produisait aujourd'hui elle frapperait un monde fortement dépendant des satellites pour les communications, la synchronisation, l'observation de la Terre, les prévisions météorologiques, les opérations militaires, la gestion des catastrophes, la finance et la navigation. Elle impacterait un environnement orbital bien plus encombré qu'il y a seulement dix ans. En plus du risque de collisions, les méga-constellations de satellites participent aussi à la multiplication des débris spatiaux, aux rentrées atmosphériques accidentelles, aux perturbations des observations d'astronomie et à la pollution atmosphérique. L'étude ne préconise pas la suppression des satellites, elle pointe une vulnérabilité critique. L'orbite terrestre basse repose désormais sur un contrôle constant et précis et si ce contrôle est interrompu, la fenêtre d'opportunité permettant d'éviter une série de collisions majeure pourrait se réduire à quelques jours seulement.
Référence : "An orbital house of cards: Frequent megaconstellation close conjunctions" (= Un château de cartes orbital : les fréquentes conjonctions rapprochées de mégaconstellations) par Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley et Samantha M. Lawler, 10 décembre 2025, arXiv.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.09643
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#Science #Astrophysics #Satellites #Musk #Starlink #SolarStorms #SpaceDebris #SpaceWeather

#spaceweather #spacedebris #solarstorms #starlink #musk #satellites
Mimi @[email protected] · 2026-04-29 · 08:36 UTC

Satellites - C'est ce qu'on appelle une réaction en chaine, le même phénomène moteur que celui des explosions nucléaires. Ici, c'est appliqué aux satellites en orbite basse qui sont devenus tellement nombreux et dont le nazi milliardaire d'Afrique du Sud pourrissant toutes les sociétés veut encore augmenter le nombre à plus d'un million alors que c'est déjà un embouteillage dérivant à 27 000 km/h : le moindre événement perturbateur, vent solaire, orage magnétique ou autre pouvant rendre aléatoires et chaotiques les contrôles à distance parant aux collisions, et qui arrivera, va en déclencher une cascade exponentielle exactement comme une réaction nucléaire à masse critique : complètement et parfaitement incontrôlable. Ceci d'autant plus violemment que tout satellite désintégré se transforme en un nuage de débris tout autant à très haute vitesse, chacun d'eux étant capable de déchirer et/ou pulvériser d'autres satellites. Le réseau satellitaire de basse altitude peut donc se retrouver totalement atomisé lui-même, désintégrant du même coup de façon aussi brutale et soudaine l'essentiel des télécommunications, internet inclus, observations satellitaires, etc. Tout ça juste sur un gros orage magnétique ou perturbation solaire comme il y en a quasiment tout le temps à l'échelle géologique.
Je me demande si le "génie" autoproclamé "Asperger" a, dans son délire mégalomaniaque spatial, été assez intelligent pour le voir venir et j'ai bien l'impression que la réponse est non vu son objectif d'un million de satellites privés.
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Traduction de https://scitechdaily.com/2-8-days-to-disaster-scientists-warn-low-earth-orbit-could-suddenly-collapse/
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2,8 jours avant la catastrophe : des scientifiques mettent en garde contre l'effondrement brutal de tout le réseau de satellites en orbite basse
Par SciTechDaily.com - 28 avril 2026
[Image : Débris spatiaux – Satellites en orbite autour de la Terre - Une nouvelle étude suggère que les réseaux satellitaires modernes sont bien plus fragiles qu’il n’y paraît, le risque de collisions orbitales augmentant fortement en cas de perturbation des systèmes de contrôle. Crédit : Shutterstock]
Une nouvelle étude alerte que si les opérateurs de satellites perdent brusquement le contrôle suite à une perturbation majeure, une catastrophique série de collisions en orbite pourrait se produire en seulement 2,8 jours.
Une importante tempête solaire n’a pas besoin de détruire directement les satellites pour provoquer une crise. Il suffit qu’elle interrompe le suivi, les commandes et les manœuvres d’évitement qui maintiennent sous contrôle l’environnement satellitaire actuellement de plus en plus dense. Ce risque s’accroît à mesure qu'on surcharge l’orbite terrestre basse de méga-constellations de satellites, de vastes réseaux de satellites lancés et remplacés à un rythme soutenu. Ces engins spatiaux fournissent l’accès à Internet, les communications, la surveillance météorologique, la navigation et d’autres services. Ceci étant, ça concourt à la congestion d'une région orbitale où les objets se déplacent à environ 27 000 km/h.
Une nouvelle étude, menée par Sarah Thiele, qui a débuté ses travaux en tant que doctorante à l'Université de Colombie-Britannique et travaille désormais à Princeton, tente de mesurer la fragilité de ce système. L'étude introduit un indicateur appelé « Horloge CRASH » (Collision Realization And Significant Harm), qui évalue le délai avant qu'une grave série de collisions ne se produise si les satellites ne peuvent plus être manœuvrés ou si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité de connaître leur position. Le résultat est alarmant. À partir des données du catalogue de satellites de juin 2025, les chercheurs ont calculé que si les opérateurs perdent la possibilité d'envoyer les ordres de manœuvre d'évitement, une dantesque série de collisions pourrait se produire en environ 2,8 jours. Une version plus large de l'Horloge CRASH prenant en compte toutes les interactions des objets spatiaux en orbite donne un délai de 5,5 jours. En 2018, avant l'expansion rapide des méga-constellations de satellites, ce délai était de 164 jours.
Les tempêtes solaires : une menace systémique
Les satellites en orbite terrestre basse ne suivent pas des trajectoires fixes. Leur fonctionnement repose sur le maintien à poste, la mise à jour des données de suivi et les manœuvres d'évitement de collision. Selon le dernier rapport bisannuel de SpaceX cité dans l'étude, les satellites Starlink ont effectué 144 404 manœuvres d'évitement entre le 1ᵉʳ décembre 2024 et le 31 mai 2025. Cela représente en moyenne 41 manœuvres par satellite et par an, soit une manœuvre d'évitement toutes les 1,8 minutes sur l'ensemble du réseau Starlink.
[Photo : Trajectoires des satellites Starlink (février 2024). Crédit : NASA Scientific Visualization Studio]
Lors d'une tempête solaire majeure, ce système, pourtant géré avec précision, peut devenir plus difficile à contrôler. Les tempêtes solaires réchauffent la haute atmosphère terrestre, provoquant son expansion. Cette expansion accroît la résistance de l'air sur les satellites, les dévie de leurs trajectoires, oblige les opérateurs à consommer du carburant pour les maintenir à leur altitude et rend moins fiables la prévision de leur orbite. La "tempête de Gannon" de mai 2024 a démontré l'ampleur des perturbations que peut engendrer ce phénomène : près de la moitié des satellites actifs en orbite terrestre basse ont dû être manœuvrés à cause de l'augmentation de la résistance de l'atmosphère. L'étude relève que ces nombreux repositionnements combinés à une résistance imprévisible ont considérablement compliqué l'évaluation des risques de collision pendant et après la tempête. Le danger s'accroît si une tempête perturbe également la navigation, les communications ou le contrôle au sol. Dans ce cas, les satellites deviennent plus difficiles à suivre juste au moment où ils deviennent plus lents à réagir.
Pourquoi une seule collision est cruciale
Le syndrome de Kessler est la version la plus connue de ce type de catastrophe. Des collisions en cascade saturent l'orbite de débris et finissent par rendre extrêmement difficile le lancement et l'exploitation de vaisseaux spatiaux en toute sécurité. Néanmoins ce scénario d'emballement prendrait des années, voire des décennies, à se concrétiser. Les chercheurs ont introduit un nouvel indicateur, l'horloge CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) qui estime la rapidité avec laquelle une collision majeure, génératrice de débris, pourrait se produire si le contrôle et la coordination des satellites actifs étaient perturbés, ce afin de bien voir le danger beaucoup plus immédiat. Même un seul impact à grande vitesse peut avoir des conséquences à long terme. Une collision entre de gros objets peut créer des milliers de fragments, chacun constituant un nouveau danger. L'environnement actuel des débris spatiaux est encore marqué par l'essai anti-satellite chinois de 2007 impliquant Fengyun 1C et la collision de 2009 entre Iridium 33 et Kosmos 2251. La nouvelle étude révèle que les zones les plus denses des réseaux satellitaires actuels sont particulièrement préoccupantes. L'enveloppe principale de Starlink à environ 550 kilomètres d'altitude atteint des densités plus de dix fois supérieures au pic de densité des débris suivis vers 800 kilomètres d'altitude.
Une marge d'erreur de plus en plus réduite
Les chercheurs estiment que sur l'ensemble de l'orbite terrestre basse des croisements à moins d'un kilomètre de distance se produisent toutes les 36 secondes. Les rencontres entre au moins deux satellites ont lieu environ toutes les 41 secondes, celles entre un satellite Starlink et un autre objet spatial environ toutes les 47 secondes. Un croisement rapproché n'équivaut pas à une collision. Les opérateurs évaluent la distance, la taille du satellite, l'incertitude et la probabilité de collision avant de décider de le déplacer ou pas. Quoi qu'il en soit, la fréquence de ces rencontres démontre à quel point les orbites dépendent d'un contrôle rapide, précis et coordonné. Les tempêtes solaires majeures sont rares mais bien réelles. La tempête de Gannon de mai 2024 a été la plus puissante tempête géomagnétique de ces dernières décennies. L'événement de Carrington en septembre 1859 était au moins deux fois plus intense, selon l'étude, et a comporté deux fortes tempêtes en quelques jours. Si une tempête de l'ampleur de Carrington se produisait aujourd'hui elle frapperait un monde fortement dépendant des satellites pour les communications, la synchronisation, l'observation de la Terre, les prévisions météorologiques, les opérations militaires, la gestion des catastrophes, la finance et la navigation. Elle impacterait un environnement orbital bien plus encombré qu'il y a seulement dix ans. En plus du risque de collisions, les méga-constellations de satellites participent aussi à la multiplication des débris spatiaux, aux rentrées atmosphériques accidentelles, aux perturbations des observations d'astronomie et à la pollution atmosphérique. L'étude ne préconise pas la suppression des satellites, elle pointe une vulnérabilité critique. L'orbite terrestre basse repose désormais sur un contrôle constant et précis et si ce contrôle est interrompu, la fenêtre d'opportunité permettant d'éviter une série de collisions majeure pourrait se réduire à quelques jours seulement.
Référence : "An orbital house of cards: Frequent megaconstellation close conjunctions" (= Un château de cartes orbital : les fréquentes conjonctions rapprochées de mégaconstellations) par Sarah Thiele, Skye R. Heiland, Aaron C. Boley et Samantha M. Lawler, 10 décembre 2025, arXiv.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.09643
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#Science #Astrophysics #Satellites #Musk #Starlink #SolarStorms #SpaceDebris #SpaceWeather

#science #astrophysics #satellites #musk #starlink #solarstorms
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2026-04-08 · 16:10 UTC
Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

Good Morning!!
Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

*many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬
— The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.
And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.
Major developments we’re following:
- Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
- All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
- Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
- The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.
Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:
— The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

Here are some Iran war reads to check out:
Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]
WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.
So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.
And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….
But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”
Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.
Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
“We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”
“If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”
In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.
In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.
Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

The Strait of Hormuz

Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.
But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.
It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.
It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.
And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.
On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

“Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”
So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.
Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
There’s more at the Axios link.
William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.
#BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
#benjaminnetanyahu #donaldtrump #iran #iranwar #iranwarceasefire #iranianforeignministerabbasaraghchi
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2026-04-08 · 16:10 UTC
Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

Good Morning!!
Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

*many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬
— The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.
And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.
Major developments we’re following:
- Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
- All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
- Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
- The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.
Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:
— The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

Here are some Iran war reads to check out:
Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]
WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.
So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.
And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….
But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”
Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.
Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
“We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”
“If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”
In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.
In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.
Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

The Strait of Hormuz

Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.
But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.
It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.
It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.
And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.
On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

“Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”
So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.
Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
There’s more at the Axios link.
William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.
#BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
#benjaminnetanyahu #donaldtrump #iran #iranwar #iranwarceasefire #iranianforeignministerabbasaraghchi
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2026-04-08 · 16:10 UTC
Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

Good Morning!!
Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

*many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬
— The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.
And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.
Major developments we’re following:
- Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
- All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
- Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
- The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.
Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:
— The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

Here are some Iran war reads to check out:
Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]
WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.
So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.
And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….
But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”
Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.
Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
“We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”
“If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”
In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.
In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.
Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

The Strait of Hormuz

Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.
But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.
It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.
It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.
And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.
On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

“Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”
So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.
Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
There’s more at the Axios link.
William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.
#BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
#benjaminnetanyahu #donaldtrump #iran #iranwar #iranwarceasefire #iranianforeignministerabbasaraghchi
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2026-04-08 · 16:10 UTC
Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

Good Morning!!
Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

*many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬
— The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.
And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.
Major developments we’re following:
- Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
- All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
- Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
- The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.
Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:
— The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

Here are some Iran war reads to check out:
Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]
WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.
So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.
And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….
But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”
Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.
Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
“We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”
“If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”
In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.
In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.
Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

The Strait of Hormuz

Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.
But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.
It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.
It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.
And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.
On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

“Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”
So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.
Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
There’s more at the Axios link.
William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.
#BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
#tacotuesday #straitofhormuz #pakistaniprimeministershehbazsharif #lebanon #israel #iraniansupremeleadermojtabakhamenei
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2026-04-08 · 16:10 UTC
Wednesday Reads: The Iran War “Ceasefire”

Good Morning!!
Yesterday morning Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization beginning at 8:00 last night–the deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what he posted on Truth Social:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The obvious implication was that he would use nuclear weapons. Of course it turned out to be another Taco Tuesday, as Trump backed down and the White House dictated a ceasefire agreement to Pakistan and then Trump said that Iran’s 10-point plan was a good starting point for negotiations.

*many people are saying* it sure looks like the White House wrote this for Pakistan’s PM, who posted it then quickly deleted the top part 😬
— The Tennessee Holler (@thetnholler.bsky.social) 2026-04-07T21:21:23.299Z

Iran’s 10-point plan, from The Guardian:
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of 10 points, published by Iranian state media, include a number of conditions the US has rejected in the past. The plan requires:
The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
The release of frozen Iranian assets.
A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a great starting point for Trump. At the moment, Iran is still collecting tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they are demanding that the U.S. close all military bases in the Middle East, plus they want compensation for losses from the war and the return of frozen assets going back to the George W. Bush administration.
And it appears there really isn’t really a ceasefire. AP on the latest events: Live updates: Attacks reported in Iran and Gulf Arab nations hours after ceasefire announcement.
Major developments we’re following:
- Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, an 11th-hour deal that headed off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilization. Hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday, though it was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal.
- All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. would work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, though Iran did not confirm that.
- Pakistan and others said fighting would pause in Lebanon, which Israel has invaded to fight the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes hit several dense commercial and residential areas in central Beirut Wednesday afternoon without warning, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of people.
- The ceasefire may formalize a system of charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran instituted — and give it a new source of revenue. Iranian attacks and threats deterred many commercial ships from passing through the waterway, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime.
Here’s a good summary of what Trump accomplished:

THIS SUMS IT UP AS WELL AS ANYONE CAN:
— The Analyst (@militaryanalyst.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T07:30:21.568Z

Here are some Iran war reads to check out:
Jack Blanchard with Dash Burns at Politico Playbook: ‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III.’
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still slowly exhaling. It’s Day One of the ceasefire in Iran. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace? [….]
WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES: “A big day for World Peace!” Trump trumpeted on Truth Social at 12:01 a.m., a mere 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet. Iran has “had enough” of war, Trump said, and “so has everyone else.” Plenty of people will be nodding along with that.
So let the good times roll: “There will be lots of positive action!” Trump predicted. “Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process … This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” You don’t need to read too far past the hyperbole to get the crucial point: “Two-week” ceasefire or no, Trump is already moving on.
And let’s be clear: Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.
So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today….
But here’s the problem: This “total victory” narrative looks tough to sell. Clearly these past few weeks have been painful for Tehran, and Hegseth and Caine will rattle off an astonishing number of military targets that U.S. and Israeli missiles flattened. But is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi

Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible. Iran’s national security council is already taking a victory lap, though Trump railed angrily at CNN last night for reporThe ting it.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”
Karen DeYoung, Isaac Arnsdorf, Sammy Westfall, and Tara Copp at The Washington Post: Trump agrees to suspend attacks for two weeks if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.
Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to wipe out “a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Tuesday on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
“We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives,and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran,” Trump said. A 10-point proposal received from Tehran, he said, was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”
“If attacks against Iran are halted,” it said, “our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” For two weeks, it added, “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination” with the Iranian military.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir. Pakistan has led a group of mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, that has been looking for an exit to the war that has destabilized the entire region. Trump has forged a particularly close relationship with Munir and, in an interview with Fox News before the extension announcement, described Sharif as “a highly respected man all over.”
In a statement following Trump’s announcement, Sharif said U.S. and Iranian delegations were invited to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.” He said that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in a massive bombing campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu didn’t agree to include Lebanon in the ceasefire.

In a brief statement issued in English by his office early Wednesday, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported Trump’s “decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region.”

“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat. … The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals … in the upcoming negotiations,” Netanyahu said.
In a caveat that did not bode well for the negotiations, he added that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting Sharif’s claims.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday it had “ceased fire in the campaign against Iran” but would continue “its combat and ground operations” in Lebanon.

David Sanger at The New York Times (gift link): Trump Finds His Offramp With Iran. But the Causes of War Remain Unresolved.
Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.

The Strait of Hormuz

Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.
But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.
It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.
It left Gulf allies reeling, with the discovery that the glass skyscrapers of Dubai and the desalination plants that make wealthy enclaves in Kuwait livable can be taken out by Iranian missiles and drones. Gas prices have soared, and are about to test Mr. Trump’s promise that they will fall again to old levels as soon as the fighting stops.
And it has left Mr. Trump’s political base fractured, with onetime supporters now accusing the president and his loyalists, starting with Vice President JD Vance, with violating their promise not to get America tied up in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
It all happened at a moment when Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure.

Now Mr. Trump faces the challenge not only of reaching a more permanent settlement but proving to the United States and the world that this conflict was worth fighting in the first place. And to do so, he will have to demonstrate that he has removed Iran’s death-grip on the 21-mile channel that makes up the strait, and its chances of ever building a nuclear weapon.
On that point there was an ominous-sounding element buried in the Iranian description of the deal. Shipping would proceed, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote, but under the control of “Iran’s Armed Forces,” who would determine who passes, and when.

And then there’s that 10-point list of demands.

“Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely. That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”
So might a final agreement. Four weeks ago Mr. Trump was demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,’’ saying he would determine when the country had been completely defeated. On Tuesday evening his tone was different. He agreed to base the next two weeks of talks on a 10-point plan Iran submitted to the Pakistanis. Mr. Trump called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Have you looked at Iran’s plan?” asked Mr. Fontaine. “It reads like a Tehran wish list from before the war, calling for a global recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the removal of all American forces from the region and a lifting of economic sanctions. And it calls for the payment of reparations to Iran for damage caused in the war.”

Use the gift link to read the rest, if you’re interested.
Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler, and Marc Caputo at Axios: Exclusive: How Iran’s supreme leader reached a truce with Trump.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump’s ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced….
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a “very angry” Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was “a disaster, a catastrophe,” a source with direct knowledge said.
That began a “chaotic” day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
Two sources described Khamenei’s blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a “breakthrough.”
The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clearby Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they’d lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
There’s more at the Axios link.
William Kristol at The Bulwark: It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
I’m old enough to remember when President Trump assured us, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was a month ago.
Since then, Trump has bombed and blustered and caused all manner of damage to Iran, to its neighbors, to the United States, and to the world. But Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
So we’re off to negotiations. Trump and the Iranian regime are making wildly contrasting claims and promises about what has been or will be agreed to. For now, as Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent of the Economist, put it:
So if you’re keeping score at home, the ceasefire includes Lebanon but also doesn’t include Lebanon, America has agreed to all of Iran’s demands and Iran has agreed to all of America’s demands, America will recognize Iran’s right to enrichment and also insist on zero enrichment, Hormuz is completely open but also Hormuz is subject to unclear limitations.
Oil market researcher Rory Johnston wittily called this “Schrödinger’s ceasefire.”
But the fog of ceasefire doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything. In fact, we know quite a lot already.
We know that the Iranian regime remains in place. The mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.
We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium (even if they can’t get to a lot of it right now). And we know that while its military capabilities have been much degraded, it still has functional missile and drone capabilities. We know there’s no reason not to expect Russia and China to be willing to rearm Iran.
We know that primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted.
We know that at least for now the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. But it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage. And we know that the fact that the Iranian regime was able to close the waterway, cause significant damage to the global economy, and live to boast about it, can’t be unseen. Whatever promises are now made, Iran will retain leverage with respect to the strait.
We know more generally that Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. We know that the old international order with the United States as its anchor is gone.
What we know mocks Trump’s claim in an interview with AFP last night that the United States “won a total and complete victory. One hundred percent. No question about it.”
That’s about all I can handle for today. We have a fool as president, and I’m not sure we can survive the rest of his term. Our only hope is that Democrats can wind the House and Senate and impeach and remove him.
#BenjaminNetanyahu #DonaldTrump #iran #IranWar #IranWarCeasefire #IranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi #IranianSupremeLeaderMojtabaKhamenei #israel #Lebanon #PakistaniPrimeMinisterShehbazSharif #StraitOfHormuz #TacoTuesday
#benjaminnetanyahu #donaldtrump #iran #iranwar #iranwarceasefire #iranianforeignministerabbasaraghchi
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-12-17 · 18:39 UTC

Wednesday Reads: Is Trump’s Power Waning?
Good Day!!
I haven’t been feeling well for the past several days, and I’ve only been following the news superficially. There is so much going on, but I’ll do my best. Here’s the latest.
Trump is scheduled to give a speech from the White House tonight at 9PM.
AP: Trump is previewing his 2026 agenda in an address to the nation as his popularity wanes.
President Donald Trump intends to preview his agenda for next year and beyond in a live speech from the White House on Wednesday night. His remarks are coming at a crucial time as he tries to rebuild his steadily eroding popularity.
The White House offered few details about what the Republican president intends to emphasize in the 9 p.m. EST speech. Public polling shows most U.S. adults are frustrated with his handling of the economy as inflation picked up after his tariffs raised prices and hiring slowed.
Trump’s mass deportations of immigrants have also proved unpopular even as he is viewed favorably for halting crossings along the U.S. border with Mexico. The public has generally been nonplussed by his income tax cuts and globe-trotting efforts to end conflicts, attack suspected drug boats near Venezuela and attract investment dollars into the United States.
In 2026, Trump and his party face a referendum on their leadership as the nation heads into the midterm elections that will decide control of the House and the Senate.
Trump has said that he thinks more Americans would back him if they simply heard him describe his track record. Administration officials say investment commitments for new factories will reverse the recent decline in manufacturing jobs and that consumer activity will improve dramatically as people receive increased tax refunds next year.
“It has been a great year for our Country, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!” Trump said in a Tuesday social media post announcing the speech.
Sorry, Grandpa. Your economy sucks because of your idiotic tariffs, your cruel mass deportations, and your general incompetence.
The New York Times: Trump Dangles Cash Payments to Buoy Voters’ Views of the Economy.
Tariffs are unpopular, prices remain stubbornly high and Americans are souring on President Trump’s handling of the economy.
So Mr. Trump has reprised a familiar political strategy: promise people cash.

The president has repeatedly floated the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families.Credit…Eric Lee for The New York Times

The White House is trying to tamp down Americans’ economic anxieties by dangling the prospect of checks and other paydays next year, hoping that the money might assuage voters who blame the president for their rising cost of living.
Mr. Trump, who is set to address the nation on Wednesday night, has repeatedly teased the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families, funded using money collected from his sweeping global tariffs. But he has not devised a detailed plan for providing the rebates, an expensive policy that Republicans in Congress must approve and one that they have not yet considered.
The president has also begun hyping up the tax refunds that Americans are slated to receive in 2026. For many people, these cash payments are expected to be larger than they were last year, after Republicans adopted a sprawling set of tax cuts in July.
Both Mr. Trump and members of his administration have periodically drawn an equivalence between the supposed tariff rebates and the enacted tax law. They have claimed the money could bolster the economy and alleviate some of the financial strains on families, even at a time when Mr. Trump maintains that much of the talk about affordability is a “hoax.”
“Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, because we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars,” Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting last week. “And we’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt.”
But economists take a dimmer view. Even if Americans were to delight in a series of new government-issued checks, the payments would hardly address the reasons that prices remain so high — including a shortage in housing that has driven up rents and mortgages and the global tariffs that have made imports more expensive. And the money that may soon be sloshing around the economy could end up worsening inflation, undermining Mr. Trump’s own economic goals.
Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, said that simply “pumping money” into the economy — without any other underlying changes — threatened to “just generate a cycle where you continue to get higher prices.”
Paul Krugman at his Substack: An A+++++ Economy, My A++. Trump made big boasts but he isn’t delivering.
When Politico recently asked Donald Trump to grade the current U.S. economy, he replied “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” He made this boast at a time when actual economic data were still scarce, a consequence of the government shutdown that stopped or delayed key information about the state of the job market.
Yesterday the report on employment during the month of November finally arrived. And the message of the report on the state of the US economy was clear: A+++++ my A++. While it’s too soon to declare that we’re in a recession, the data are at least pre-recessionary: that is, the numbers are weak enough that we should be seriously worried that a recession is coming. And that’s a state of affairs completely at odds with Trump’s rose-colored — spray-tanned? — picture.
I’ll talk about the reasons the gap between Trump’s big boasts and the glum reality matters in a minute. First, however, let’s talk about what we learned from yesterday’s report.
Most importantly, the data show a weak labor market. Employment isn’t falling off a cliff, but job growth has been weak and hasn’t kept pace with the number of people seeking work. The headline unemployment rate in November was 4.6 percent, up from an average of 4 percent in 2024. That number is close to triggering the Sahm Rule, an economic rule of thumb devised by Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, that has historically been highly successful at identifying the early stages of a recession.
We can’t do a strict application of the Sahm Rule yet because Sahm’s method is based on the average unemployment rate over the past three months. Unfortunately, the shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting key data in October. But if we do an interpolation of October’s unemployment rate by averaging over September’s rate of 4.4% and November’s rate of 4.6%, we can estimate that October’s unemployment rate was 4.5%. And those 3 months of unemployment numbers bring us within a whisker of the unemployment rise that, according to the Sahm Rule, signals that a recession is on the horizon.
The state of the economy looks even worse if we take a wider view of the labor market. The BLS calculates 6 different measures of unemployment. The most commonly cited number is U-3 — the number of workers who are actively seeking jobs but haven’t found them. But the broadest measure is U-6, which includes underemployed workers stuck in part-time employment and discouraged workers who have temporarily given up job search. And U-6 has risen sharply since January, when Trump took office:

Source: BLS

Further evidence consistent with a poor and deteriorating job market is data showing that the number of job-seekers who are long-term unemployed – that is, have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more – has risen by almost a third (from 1.45 million to 1.91 million) since 2024. This means that the unemployed are finding it harder to find jobs.
Read more details at the Substack link.
Most Americans aren’t stupid. They can see how much prices have gone up on necessities like food and electricity. Trump is losing popularity even with his MAGA base.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I think the midterms are gonna be very hard for Republicans. I'm one of the people that's willing to admit the truth and say I don't see Republicans winning the midterms right now, so that doesn't bode well for Mike Johnson."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:20:39.871Z

Marjorie Taylor Greene was once one of Trump’s biggest supporters; now she’s turned on him. Victoria Craw at The Washington Post: Marjorie Taylor Greene says ‘dam is breaking’ within GOP against Trump.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) on Tuesday said President Donald Trump has “real problems” within the Republican Party, adding in an interview with CNN that the president is out of touch with voters on key issues such as affordability.
Greene told Kaitlan Collins on “The Source” that the “dam is breaking” in terms of Trump’s hold onsupport within the party and that she expects Republicans to struggle in next year’s midterm elections.
Citingthe backlash to Trump’s comments on the death of director Rob Reiner, the 13 HouseRepublicans who voted with Democrats to overturn Trump’s executive order on collective bargaining and Indiana Republicans’ rejection of the president’s redistricting push, Greene said she expected “pushback” within the party to grow as lawmakers enter the campaign phase for the upcoming elections.
“I think the midterms are going to be very hard for Republicans,” Greene said. “I’m one of the people that’s willing to admit the truth and say I don’t see Republicans winning the midterms right now.” [….]
Greene had carved out a high-profile role as one of Trump’s most vocal allies, first in the “Make America Great Again” movement and then with her support for the “America First” agenda. But after weeks of speaking out against the president on several issues, Greene and Trump had an acrimonious public split last month after she joined with Democrats on a discharge position to compel a House vote calling on the Justice Department to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein….
Speaking to The Washington Post this week, Greene described herself as a “bellwether” who is closely attuned to Trump’s base. “I say it, and then within four to six months, everybody’s saying the same thing,” she said….

“He’s got real problems with Republicans within the House and the Senate that will be breaking with him on more things to come,” she added.

Greene also said Trump’s supporters “didn’t appreciate” the president’s reaction to the death of Rob Reiner, who was found stabbed to death alongside his wife, photographer Michele Singer Reiner, in their Los Angeles home Sunday. The couple’s son Nick Reiner faces two counts of first-degree murder, among other charges, in their deaths.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "What I'd like to see from the president is empathy for Americans. Donald Trump is a billionaire and he's the president. When he looks into a camera and says 'affordability is a hoax,' he's talking to Americans that are suffering and have been for many years now."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:17:20.938Z

Moderate Republicans in the House are rebelling against Speaker Mike Johnson and his determination not to extend the ACA subsidies.

Meredith Lee Hill writes at Politico about another sign of Trump’s waning popularity and power: Frustrated GOP moderates join Democrats to force Obamacare extension vote.
Four House Republicans joined Democrats Wednesday to force a House vote on a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare tax credits that will expire Dec. 31, delivering a sharp rebuke to Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP leaders.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania signed the discharge petition filed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — hours after House GOP leaders rejected attempts by Fitzpatrick and other Republican moderates to seek a floor vote on extending the subsidies used by more than 20 million Americans.
Fitzpatrick said in a late-night House Rules Committee meeting Tuesday that “the only thing worse than a clean extension … would be expiration, and I would make that decision.” Lawler added that “the only feasible path forward is a discharge petition” if GOP leader reject a floor vote.
Under House rules, a completed discharge petition is subject to a waiting period, meaning no vote could happen until next month — though Johnson could choose to move sooner.
“We have worked for months to craft a two-party solution to address these expiring healthcare credits,” Fitzpatrick said in a statement Wednesday. “Our only request was a Floor vote on this compromise, so that the American People’s voice could be heard on this issue. That request was rejected. … Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome.”
Jeffries told reporters Wednesday his discharge petition is “the most straightforward path to ensuring that tens of millions of Americans don’t have their health care ripped away from them because of the expiration of the Affordable Care Act tax credits.”

"It's idiotic, it's political malpractice," Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) told reporters Tuesday of Johnson refusing to give them an ACA extension vote.Lawler, and other moderate Republicans didn't rule out joining Democrats to force a vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies, Axios reported.
— Ken Bazinet (@kenbazinet.bsky.social) 2025-12-16T21:38:46.444Z

Amanda Marcotte writes at Salon about the Republican rebellion: Republicans are quiet quitting on Trump.
Donald Trump is worried that Republicans aren’t as afraid of him as they used to be. Despite his self-billing as a dealmaker, the president has only ever had one tool to control his party: fear. GOP politicians have been afraid of career damage and literal physical harm if they crossed him. Trump is not above reminding elected officials that he has unhinged followers who are known to be violent. But as his approval ratings fall and the 2026 midterm elections inch closer, it seems Republicans are slightly less worried about the president’s wrath.
The first indicator was the House vote on Nov. 18 to release the Epstein files against Trump’s expressed wishes. But the biggest sign that the president’s grip on power is weakening came last week, when a majority of Republicans in the Indiana statehouse struck down a gerrymandering bill Trump had demanded.
As I argued in the latest Standing Room Only newsletter, this context helps explain why Trump responded to the death of beloved director Rob Reiner and his wife Michele with an ugliness that’s shocking — even for this president. Although the Los Angeles Police Department had arrested the couple’s son for the apparent homicide, Trump insinuated on Truth Social that it was one of his own followers who killed the Reiners out of revenge for their anti-Trump activism. He doubled down when asked about it by reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. The message was hard to miss: If you oppose Trump, he wishes you dead.
So far, his escalation doesn’t seem to be intimidating Republicans. Indiana Republicans were subject to an onslaught of death threats and abuse that including text messages sent to the friends of the grandson of one state senator. Most voted against Trump’s gerrymandering bill anyway. While Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pretended not to have heard Trump’s response to Reiner’s death, as Salon’s Sophia Tesfaye documented, most right-wing media, including Fox News, actually criticized Trump for his behavior.
These are promising signs, but it’s not worth holding your breath waiting for GOP politicians to openly turn on a president who demands absolute loyalty. Instead of public rebellion, most Republicans seem to be engaged in a form of quiet quitting. They won’t go out of their way to resist Trump, but they are losing enthusiasm for defending him. They’re struggling to hide their frustration or their scheming for a post-Trump world. Overall, the posture is one of lying low, waiting for the old man to be gone so they can begin the project of rebuilding the GOP and their own careers in a post-Trump era.
Read the rest at Salon.
Trump is also becoming noticeably less involved in actually running the government (gift link): The White House Is a Lost Cause.

There is a presidency at work in Washington, but it is not clear that there is a president at work in the Oval Office.
Ask Donald Trump about the goings on of his administration, and there is a good chance he’ll defer to a deputy rather than answer the question. “I don’t know her,” he said when asked about his nominee for surgeon general, Casey Means, earlier this year. “I listened to the recommendation of Bobby,” he said, pointing to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of health and human services.
Ask Trump for insight into why his administration made a choice or to explain a particular decision, and he’ll be at a loss for words. Ask him to comment on a scandal? He’ll plead ignorance. “I know nothing about it,” Trump said last week, when asked about the latest tranche of photographs released from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein.
None of this on its own means the president isn’t working or paying attention to the duties of his office. But consider the rest of the evidence. He is by most accounts isolated from the outside world. He does not travel the country and rarely meets with ordinary Americans outside the White House. He is shuttled from one Trump resort to another to play golf and hold court with donors, supporters and hangers-on.
Ronald Reagan took regular meetings with congressional leaders to discuss his legislative agenda; George H.W. Bush spearheaded negotiations with the nation’s allies and led the United States to war in Iraq; and George W. Bush was, for better or worse, “the decider” who performed leadership for the cameras as much as he tried to exercise it from the Oval Office. Trump is a ubiquitous cultural presence, but there is no outward sign that he is an active participant in running the national government. He was mostly absent during discussions of his signature legislation — the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — and practically AWOL during the monthlong government shutdown.
It is difficult for any president to get a clear read on the state of the nation; it takes work and discipline to clear the distance between the office and the people. But Trump, in his second term, does not seem to care about the disconnect. Abraham Lincoln once remarked that it would “never do for a president to have guards with drawn sabers at his door, as if he fancied he were, or were trying to be, or were assuming to be, an emperor.” A president has to be engaged — attentive to both the government and the public he was elected to serve.
Trump is neither. He is uninterested in anyone except his most devoted fans, and would rather collect gifts from foreign businessmen than take the reins of his administration. “The president doesn’t know and never will,” Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said in an interview with Vanity Fair, commenting on the work of Elon Musk in the first months of the year. “He doesn’t know the details of these smallish agencies.”
A bit more:

Russell Vought

Instead, the work of the White House has been delegated to a handful of high-level advisers. Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, is the de facto shadow president for domestic affairs. As one senior government official told ProPublica, “It feels like we work for Russ Vought. He has centralized decision-making power to an extent that he is the commander in chief.” It was Vought who orchestrated the administration’s assault on the federal bureaucracy, including the wholesale destruction of U.S.A.I.D. It was Vought who either froze or canceled hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for anti-poverty programs, H.I.V. reduction initiatives and research into science, medicine and technology. And it is Vought who has been pushing the boundaries of executive power as he attempts to turn the federal government into little more than an extension of the personal will of the president — as channeled through himself, of course.
If Vought is the nation’s shadow president for domestic policy, then Stephen Miller is its shadow president for internal security. Miller, Trump’s top domestic policy adviser, is using the president’s authority to try to transform the ethnic mix of the country — to make America white again, or at least whiter than it is now. He is the primary force behind the expansion of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection into a roving deportation force. He has pushed both agencies to step up their enforcement operations, targeting schools, restaurants, farms and other work sites and detaining anyone agents can get their hands on, regardless of citizenship or legal status. It is Miller who is behind the militarization of ICE, the use of the National Guard to occupy Democrat-led cities and assist deportation efforts, and the plan to blanket the United States with a network of detention camps for unauthorized immigrants and anyone else caught in his dragnet.
In other words, the Nazis are running White House policy. Use the gift link to read more.
The latest White House mess is the Vanity Fair profile of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Matt Dixon at NBC News: White House scrambles to address Susie Wiles’ explosive Vanity Fair interviews.
Susie Wiles generally helps quietly shape headlines. She is rarely the focus of them.
That changed in dramatic fashion Tuesday after Vanity Fair published a deeply reported profile of the 68-year-old White House chief of staff, whose decades-long career in politics has been defined by a measured, steady-the-ship tone, never one that could be construed as undermining her boss.
In the two-part Vanity Fair piece — which included 11 interviews over nearly a year, with the White House’s cooperation — Wiles comes off as far more candid than her public persona. She not only speaks openly about both President Donald Trump and those who make up the core of his administration, but appears to acknowledge that at times she has been at odds with some of the policies that have been central to Trump’s second term. While not unusual for a chief of staff to disagree with the president they serve, those concerns generally remain part of private conversations.

Susie Wiles

Wiles revealed there had been “huge disagreements” over implementing tariffs, acknowledged that the administration must “look harder” at its process for mass deportation and said she had to “get on board” with Trump’s decision to give blanket pardons to Jan. 6 defendants. She said she initially believed only those who did not commit violent acts should be pardoned.
The profile prompted an all-hands-on-deck pushback from the White House and Trump’s political orbit. The central talking point became that the profile lacked context, and supporters blasted the outlet for being unfair rather than offering any direct refutation of the authenticity of quotes or what was reported.
Wiles herself also offered rare public condemnation.
“Significant context was disregarded and much of what I, and others, said about the team and the President was left out of the story,” she posted on social media. “I assume, after reading it, that this was done to paint an overwhelmingly chaotic and negative narrative about the President and our team.”
In an interview with the New York Post, Trump defended his top staffer.
“I think from what I hear, the facts were wrong, and it was a very misguided interviewer, purposely misguided,”he said.
Trump added “she’s fantastic” when asked if he continues to have full confidence in Wiles.

More interesting stories:
AP: Trump orders blockade of ‘sanctioned oil tankers’ into Venezuela, ramping up pressure on Maduro.
CNN: Second near midair collision reported near Venezuela involving US Air Force tanker.
The Independent: Bari Weiss’ much-hyped CBS News town hall with Erika Kirk was a massive ratings flop.
Jacob Ware at Lawfare: A Terrorism of Vengeance. Understanding incels, school shooters, and the new category of terrorism, “nihilistic violent extremism.”
Politico: Judge lets Trump’s ballroom construction proceed.
That’s it for me today. What’s on your mind?

#ACASubsidies #DonaldTrump #MarjorieTaylorGreene #ModerateHouseRepublicans #PaulKrugman #RussellVought #StephenMiller #SusieWiles #USEconomy

#acasubsidies #donaldtrump #marjorietaylorgreene #moderatehouserepublicans #paulkrugman #russellvought
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-12-17 · 18:39 UTC

Wednesday Reads: Is Trump’s Power Waning?
Good Day!!
I haven’t been feeling well for the past several days, and I’ve only been following the news superficially. There is so much going on, but I’ll do my best. Here’s the latest.
Trump is scheduled to give a speech from the White House tonight at 9PM.
AP: Trump is previewing his 2026 agenda in an address to the nation as his popularity wanes.
President Donald Trump intends to preview his agenda for next year and beyond in a live speech from the White House on Wednesday night. His remarks are coming at a crucial time as he tries to rebuild his steadily eroding popularity.
The White House offered few details about what the Republican president intends to emphasize in the 9 p.m. EST speech. Public polling shows most U.S. adults are frustrated with his handling of the economy as inflation picked up after his tariffs raised prices and hiring slowed.
Trump’s mass deportations of immigrants have also proved unpopular even as he is viewed favorably for halting crossings along the U.S. border with Mexico. The public has generally been nonplussed by his income tax cuts and globe-trotting efforts to end conflicts, attack suspected drug boats near Venezuela and attract investment dollars into the United States.
In 2026, Trump and his party face a referendum on their leadership as the nation heads into the midterm elections that will decide control of the House and the Senate.
Trump has said that he thinks more Americans would back him if they simply heard him describe his track record. Administration officials say investment commitments for new factories will reverse the recent decline in manufacturing jobs and that consumer activity will improve dramatically as people receive increased tax refunds next year.
“It has been a great year for our Country, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!” Trump said in a Tuesday social media post announcing the speech.
Sorry, Grandpa. Your economy sucks because of your idiotic tariffs, your cruel mass deportations, and your general incompetence.
The New York Times: Trump Dangles Cash Payments to Buoy Voters’ Views of the Economy.
Tariffs are unpopular, prices remain stubbornly high and Americans are souring on President Trump’s handling of the economy.
So Mr. Trump has reprised a familiar political strategy: promise people cash.

The president has repeatedly floated the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families.Credit…Eric Lee for The New York Times

The White House is trying to tamp down Americans’ economic anxieties by dangling the prospect of checks and other paydays next year, hoping that the money might assuage voters who blame the president for their rising cost of living.
Mr. Trump, who is set to address the nation on Wednesday night, has repeatedly teased the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families, funded using money collected from his sweeping global tariffs. But he has not devised a detailed plan for providing the rebates, an expensive policy that Republicans in Congress must approve and one that they have not yet considered.
The president has also begun hyping up the tax refunds that Americans are slated to receive in 2026. For many people, these cash payments are expected to be larger than they were last year, after Republicans adopted a sprawling set of tax cuts in July.
Both Mr. Trump and members of his administration have periodically drawn an equivalence between the supposed tariff rebates and the enacted tax law. They have claimed the money could bolster the economy and alleviate some of the financial strains on families, even at a time when Mr. Trump maintains that much of the talk about affordability is a “hoax.”
“Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, because we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars,” Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting last week. “And we’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt.”
But economists take a dimmer view. Even if Americans were to delight in a series of new government-issued checks, the payments would hardly address the reasons that prices remain so high — including a shortage in housing that has driven up rents and mortgages and the global tariffs that have made imports more expensive. And the money that may soon be sloshing around the economy could end up worsening inflation, undermining Mr. Trump’s own economic goals.
Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, said that simply “pumping money” into the economy — without any other underlying changes — threatened to “just generate a cycle where you continue to get higher prices.”
Paul Krugman at his Substack: An A+++++ Economy, My A++. Trump made big boasts but he isn’t delivering.
When Politico recently asked Donald Trump to grade the current U.S. economy, he replied “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” He made this boast at a time when actual economic data were still scarce, a consequence of the government shutdown that stopped or delayed key information about the state of the job market.
Yesterday the report on employment during the month of November finally arrived. And the message of the report on the state of the US economy was clear: A+++++ my A++. While it’s too soon to declare that we’re in a recession, the data are at least pre-recessionary: that is, the numbers are weak enough that we should be seriously worried that a recession is coming. And that’s a state of affairs completely at odds with Trump’s rose-colored — spray-tanned? — picture.
I’ll talk about the reasons the gap between Trump’s big boasts and the glum reality matters in a minute. First, however, let’s talk about what we learned from yesterday’s report.
Most importantly, the data show a weak labor market. Employment isn’t falling off a cliff, but job growth has been weak and hasn’t kept pace with the number of people seeking work. The headline unemployment rate in November was 4.6 percent, up from an average of 4 percent in 2024. That number is close to triggering the Sahm Rule, an economic rule of thumb devised by Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, that has historically been highly successful at identifying the early stages of a recession.
We can’t do a strict application of the Sahm Rule yet because Sahm’s method is based on the average unemployment rate over the past three months. Unfortunately, the shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting key data in October. But if we do an interpolation of October’s unemployment rate by averaging over September’s rate of 4.4% and November’s rate of 4.6%, we can estimate that October’s unemployment rate was 4.5%. And those 3 months of unemployment numbers bring us within a whisker of the unemployment rise that, according to the Sahm Rule, signals that a recession is on the horizon.
The state of the economy looks even worse if we take a wider view of the labor market. The BLS calculates 6 different measures of unemployment. The most commonly cited number is U-3 — the number of workers who are actively seeking jobs but haven’t found them. But the broadest measure is U-6, which includes underemployed workers stuck in part-time employment and discouraged workers who have temporarily given up job search. And U-6 has risen sharply since January, when Trump took office:

Source: BLS

Further evidence consistent with a poor and deteriorating job market is data showing that the number of job-seekers who are long-term unemployed – that is, have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more – has risen by almost a third (from 1.45 million to 1.91 million) since 2024. This means that the unemployed are finding it harder to find jobs.
Read more details at the Substack link.
Most Americans aren’t stupid. They can see how much prices have gone up on necessities like food and electricity. Trump is losing popularity even with his MAGA base.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I think the midterms are gonna be very hard for Republicans. I'm one of the people that's willing to admit the truth and say I don't see Republicans winning the midterms right now, so that doesn't bode well for Mike Johnson."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:20:39.871Z

Marjorie Taylor Greene was once one of Trump’s biggest supporters; now she’s turned on him. Victoria Craw at The Washington Post: Marjorie Taylor Greene says ‘dam is breaking’ within GOP against Trump.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) on Tuesday said President Donald Trump has “real problems” within the Republican Party, adding in an interview with CNN that the president is out of touch with voters on key issues such as affordability.
Greene told Kaitlan Collins on “The Source” that the “dam is breaking” in terms of Trump’s hold onsupport within the party and that she expects Republicans to struggle in next year’s midterm elections.
Citingthe backlash to Trump’s comments on the death of director Rob Reiner, the 13 HouseRepublicans who voted with Democrats to overturn Trump’s executive order on collective bargaining and Indiana Republicans’ rejection of the president’s redistricting push, Greene said she expected “pushback” within the party to grow as lawmakers enter the campaign phase for the upcoming elections.
“I think the midterms are going to be very hard for Republicans,” Greene said. “I’m one of the people that’s willing to admit the truth and say I don’t see Republicans winning the midterms right now.” [….]
Greene had carved out a high-profile role as one of Trump’s most vocal allies, first in the “Make America Great Again” movement and then with her support for the “America First” agenda. But after weeks of speaking out against the president on several issues, Greene and Trump had an acrimonious public split last month after she joined with Democrats on a discharge position to compel a House vote calling on the Justice Department to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein….
Speaking to The Washington Post this week, Greene described herself as a “bellwether” who is closely attuned to Trump’s base. “I say it, and then within four to six months, everybody’s saying the same thing,” she said….

“He’s got real problems with Republicans within the House and the Senate that will be breaking with him on more things to come,” she added.

Greene also said Trump’s supporters “didn’t appreciate” the president’s reaction to the death of Rob Reiner, who was found stabbed to death alongside his wife, photographer Michele Singer Reiner, in their Los Angeles home Sunday. The couple’s son Nick Reiner faces two counts of first-degree murder, among other charges, in their deaths.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "What I'd like to see from the president is empathy for Americans. Donald Trump is a billionaire and he's the president. When he looks into a camera and says 'affordability is a hoax,' he's talking to Americans that are suffering and have been for many years now."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:17:20.938Z

Moderate Republicans in the House are rebelling against Speaker Mike Johnson and his determination not to extend the ACA subsidies.

Meredith Lee Hill writes at Politico about another sign of Trump’s waning popularity and power: Frustrated GOP moderates join Democrats to force Obamacare extension vote.
Four House Republicans joined Democrats Wednesday to force a House vote on a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare tax credits that will expire Dec. 31, delivering a sharp rebuke to Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP leaders.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania signed the discharge petition filed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — hours after House GOP leaders rejected attempts by Fitzpatrick and other Republican moderates to seek a floor vote on extending the subsidies used by more than 20 million Americans.
Fitzpatrick said in a late-night House Rules Committee meeting Tuesday that “the only thing worse than a clean extension … would be expiration, and I would make that decision.” Lawler added that “the only feasible path forward is a discharge petition” if GOP leader reject a floor vote.
Under House rules, a completed discharge petition is subject to a waiting period, meaning no vote could happen until next month — though Johnson could choose to move sooner.
“We have worked for months to craft a two-party solution to address these expiring healthcare credits,” Fitzpatrick said in a statement Wednesday. “Our only request was a Floor vote on this compromise, so that the American People’s voice could be heard on this issue. That request was rejected. … Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome.”
Jeffries told reporters Wednesday his discharge petition is “the most straightforward path to ensuring that tens of millions of Americans don’t have their health care ripped away from them because of the expiration of the Affordable Care Act tax credits.”

"It's idiotic, it's political malpractice," Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) told reporters Tuesday of Johnson refusing to give them an ACA extension vote.Lawler, and other moderate Republicans didn't rule out joining Democrats to force a vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies, Axios reported.
— Ken Bazinet (@kenbazinet.bsky.social) 2025-12-16T21:38:46.444Z

Amanda Marcotte writes at Salon about the Republican rebellion: Republicans are quiet quitting on Trump.
Donald Trump is worried that Republicans aren’t as afraid of him as they used to be. Despite his self-billing as a dealmaker, the president has only ever had one tool to control his party: fear. GOP politicians have been afraid of career damage and literal physical harm if they crossed him. Trump is not above reminding elected officials that he has unhinged followers who are known to be violent. But as his approval ratings fall and the 2026 midterm elections inch closer, it seems Republicans are slightly less worried about the president’s wrath.
The first indicator was the House vote on Nov. 18 to release the Epstein files against Trump’s expressed wishes. But the biggest sign that the president’s grip on power is weakening came last week, when a majority of Republicans in the Indiana statehouse struck down a gerrymandering bill Trump had demanded.
As I argued in the latest Standing Room Only newsletter, this context helps explain why Trump responded to the death of beloved director Rob Reiner and his wife Michele with an ugliness that’s shocking — even for this president. Although the Los Angeles Police Department had arrested the couple’s son for the apparent homicide, Trump insinuated on Truth Social that it was one of his own followers who killed the Reiners out of revenge for their anti-Trump activism. He doubled down when asked about it by reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. The message was hard to miss: If you oppose Trump, he wishes you dead.
So far, his escalation doesn’t seem to be intimidating Republicans. Indiana Republicans were subject to an onslaught of death threats and abuse that including text messages sent to the friends of the grandson of one state senator. Most voted against Trump’s gerrymandering bill anyway. While Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pretended not to have heard Trump’s response to Reiner’s death, as Salon’s Sophia Tesfaye documented, most right-wing media, including Fox News, actually criticized Trump for his behavior.
These are promising signs, but it’s not worth holding your breath waiting for GOP politicians to openly turn on a president who demands absolute loyalty. Instead of public rebellion, most Republicans seem to be engaged in a form of quiet quitting. They won’t go out of their way to resist Trump, but they are losing enthusiasm for defending him. They’re struggling to hide their frustration or their scheming for a post-Trump world. Overall, the posture is one of lying low, waiting for the old man to be gone so they can begin the project of rebuilding the GOP and their own careers in a post-Trump era.
Read the rest at Salon.
Trump is also becoming noticeably less involved in actually running the government (gift link): The White House Is a Lost Cause.

There is a presidency at work in Washington, but it is not clear that there is a president at work in the Oval Office.
Ask Donald Trump about the goings on of his administration, and there is a good chance he’ll defer to a deputy rather than answer the question. “I don’t know her,” he said when asked about his nominee for surgeon general, Casey Means, earlier this year. “I listened to the recommendation of Bobby,” he said, pointing to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of health and human services.
Ask Trump for insight into why his administration made a choice or to explain a particular decision, and he’ll be at a loss for words. Ask him to comment on a scandal? He’ll plead ignorance. “I know nothing about it,” Trump said last week, when asked about the latest tranche of photographs released from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein.
None of this on its own means the president isn’t working or paying attention to the duties of his office. But consider the rest of the evidence. He is by most accounts isolated from the outside world. He does not travel the country and rarely meets with ordinary Americans outside the White House. He is shuttled from one Trump resort to another to play golf and hold court with donors, supporters and hangers-on.
Ronald Reagan took regular meetings with congressional leaders to discuss his legislative agenda; George H.W. Bush spearheaded negotiations with the nation’s allies and led the United States to war in Iraq; and George W. Bush was, for better or worse, “the decider” who performed leadership for the cameras as much as he tried to exercise it from the Oval Office. Trump is a ubiquitous cultural presence, but there is no outward sign that he is an active participant in running the national government. He was mostly absent during discussions of his signature legislation — the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — and practically AWOL during the monthlong government shutdown.
It is difficult for any president to get a clear read on the state of the nation; it takes work and discipline to clear the distance between the office and the people. But Trump, in his second term, does not seem to care about the disconnect. Abraham Lincoln once remarked that it would “never do for a president to have guards with drawn sabers at his door, as if he fancied he were, or were trying to be, or were assuming to be, an emperor.” A president has to be engaged — attentive to both the government and the public he was elected to serve.
Trump is neither. He is uninterested in anyone except his most devoted fans, and would rather collect gifts from foreign businessmen than take the reins of his administration. “The president doesn’t know and never will,” Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said in an interview with Vanity Fair, commenting on the work of Elon Musk in the first months of the year. “He doesn’t know the details of these smallish agencies.”
A bit more:

Russell Vought

Instead, the work of the White House has been delegated to a handful of high-level advisers. Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, is the de facto shadow president for domestic affairs. As one senior government official told ProPublica, “It feels like we work for Russ Vought. He has centralized decision-making power to an extent that he is the commander in chief.” It was Vought who orchestrated the administration’s assault on the federal bureaucracy, including the wholesale destruction of U.S.A.I.D. It was Vought who either froze or canceled hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for anti-poverty programs, H.I.V. reduction initiatives and research into science, medicine and technology. And it is Vought who has been pushing the boundaries of executive power as he attempts to turn the federal government into little more than an extension of the personal will of the president — as channeled through himself, of course.
If Vought is the nation’s shadow president for domestic policy, then Stephen Miller is its shadow president for internal security. Miller, Trump’s top domestic policy adviser, is using the president’s authority to try to transform the ethnic mix of the country — to make America white again, or at least whiter than it is now. He is the primary force behind the expansion of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection into a roving deportation force. He has pushed both agencies to step up their enforcement operations, targeting schools, restaurants, farms and other work sites and detaining anyone agents can get their hands on, regardless of citizenship or legal status. It is Miller who is behind the militarization of ICE, the use of the National Guard to occupy Democrat-led cities and assist deportation efforts, and the plan to blanket the United States with a network of detention camps for unauthorized immigrants and anyone else caught in his dragnet.
In other words, the Nazis are running White House policy. Use the gift link to read more.
The latest White House mess is the Vanity Fair profile of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Matt Dixon at NBC News: White House scrambles to address Susie Wiles’ explosive Vanity Fair interviews.
Susie Wiles generally helps quietly shape headlines. She is rarely the focus of them.
That changed in dramatic fashion Tuesday after Vanity Fair published a deeply reported profile of the 68-year-old White House chief of staff, whose decades-long career in politics has been defined by a measured, steady-the-ship tone, never one that could be construed as undermining her boss.
In the two-part Vanity Fair piece — which included 11 interviews over nearly a year, with the White House’s cooperation — Wiles comes off as far more candid than her public persona. She not only speaks openly about both President Donald Trump and those who make up the core of his administration, but appears to acknowledge that at times she has been at odds with some of the policies that have been central to Trump’s second term. While not unusual for a chief of staff to disagree with the president they serve, those concerns generally remain part of private conversations.

Susie Wiles

Wiles revealed there had been “huge disagreements” over implementing tariffs, acknowledged that the administration must “look harder” at its process for mass deportation and said she had to “get on board” with Trump’s decision to give blanket pardons to Jan. 6 defendants. She said she initially believed only those who did not commit violent acts should be pardoned.
The profile prompted an all-hands-on-deck pushback from the White House and Trump’s political orbit. The central talking point became that the profile lacked context, and supporters blasted the outlet for being unfair rather than offering any direct refutation of the authenticity of quotes or what was reported.
Wiles herself also offered rare public condemnation.
“Significant context was disregarded and much of what I, and others, said about the team and the President was left out of the story,” she posted on social media. “I assume, after reading it, that this was done to paint an overwhelmingly chaotic and negative narrative about the President and our team.”
In an interview with the New York Post, Trump defended his top staffer.
“I think from what I hear, the facts were wrong, and it was a very misguided interviewer, purposely misguided,”he said.
Trump added “she’s fantastic” when asked if he continues to have full confidence in Wiles.

More interesting stories:
AP: Trump orders blockade of ‘sanctioned oil tankers’ into Venezuela, ramping up pressure on Maduro.
CNN: Second near midair collision reported near Venezuela involving US Air Force tanker.
The Independent: Bari Weiss’ much-hyped CBS News town hall with Erika Kirk was a massive ratings flop.
Jacob Ware at Lawfare: A Terrorism of Vengeance. Understanding incels, school shooters, and the new category of terrorism, “nihilistic violent extremism.”
Politico: Judge lets Trump’s ballroom construction proceed.
That’s it for me today. What’s on your mind?

#ACASubsidies #DonaldTrump #MarjorieTaylorGreene #ModerateHouseRepublicans #PaulKrugman #RussellVought #StephenMiller #SusieWiles #USEconomy

#useconomy #susiewiles #stephenmiller #russellvought #paulkrugman #moderatehouserepublicans
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-12-17 · 18:39 UTC

Wednesday Reads: Is Trump’s Power Waning?
Good Day!!
I haven’t been feeling well for the past several days, and I’ve only been following the news superficially. There is so much going on, but I’ll do my best. Here’s the latest.
Trump is scheduled to give a speech from the White House tonight at 9PM.
AP: Trump is previewing his 2026 agenda in an address to the nation as his popularity wanes.
President Donald Trump intends to preview his agenda for next year and beyond in a live speech from the White House on Wednesday night. His remarks are coming at a crucial time as he tries to rebuild his steadily eroding popularity.
The White House offered few details about what the Republican president intends to emphasize in the 9 p.m. EST speech. Public polling shows most U.S. adults are frustrated with his handling of the economy as inflation picked up after his tariffs raised prices and hiring slowed.
Trump’s mass deportations of immigrants have also proved unpopular even as he is viewed favorably for halting crossings along the U.S. border with Mexico. The public has generally been nonplussed by his income tax cuts and globe-trotting efforts to end conflicts, attack suspected drug boats near Venezuela and attract investment dollars into the United States.
In 2026, Trump and his party face a referendum on their leadership as the nation heads into the midterm elections that will decide control of the House and the Senate.
Trump has said that he thinks more Americans would back him if they simply heard him describe his track record. Administration officials say investment commitments for new factories will reverse the recent decline in manufacturing jobs and that consumer activity will improve dramatically as people receive increased tax refunds next year.
“It has been a great year for our Country, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!” Trump said in a Tuesday social media post announcing the speech.
Sorry, Grandpa. Your economy sucks because of your idiotic tariffs, your cruel mass deportations, and your general incompetence.
The New York Times: Trump Dangles Cash Payments to Buoy Voters’ Views of the Economy.
Tariffs are unpopular, prices remain stubbornly high and Americans are souring on President Trump’s handling of the economy.
So Mr. Trump has reprised a familiar political strategy: promise people cash.

The president has repeatedly floated the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families.Credit…Eric Lee for The New York Times

The White House is trying to tamp down Americans’ economic anxieties by dangling the prospect of checks and other paydays next year, hoping that the money might assuage voters who blame the president for their rising cost of living.
Mr. Trump, who is set to address the nation on Wednesday night, has repeatedly teased the idea of sending one-time $2,000 rebate checks to many families, funded using money collected from his sweeping global tariffs. But he has not devised a detailed plan for providing the rebates, an expensive policy that Republicans in Congress must approve and one that they have not yet considered.
The president has also begun hyping up the tax refunds that Americans are slated to receive in 2026. For many people, these cash payments are expected to be larger than they were last year, after Republicans adopted a sprawling set of tax cuts in July.
Both Mr. Trump and members of his administration have periodically drawn an equivalence between the supposed tariff rebates and the enacted tax law. They have claimed the money could bolster the economy and alleviate some of the financial strains on families, even at a time when Mr. Trump maintains that much of the talk about affordability is a “hoax.”
“Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, because we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars,” Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting last week. “And we’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt.”
But economists take a dimmer view. Even if Americans were to delight in a series of new government-issued checks, the payments would hardly address the reasons that prices remain so high — including a shortage in housing that has driven up rents and mortgages and the global tariffs that have made imports more expensive. And the money that may soon be sloshing around the economy could end up worsening inflation, undermining Mr. Trump’s own economic goals.
Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, said that simply “pumping money” into the economy — without any other underlying changes — threatened to “just generate a cycle where you continue to get higher prices.”
Paul Krugman at his Substack: An A+++++ Economy, My A++. Trump made big boasts but he isn’t delivering.
When Politico recently asked Donald Trump to grade the current U.S. economy, he replied “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” He made this boast at a time when actual economic data were still scarce, a consequence of the government shutdown that stopped or delayed key information about the state of the job market.
Yesterday the report on employment during the month of November finally arrived. And the message of the report on the state of the US economy was clear: A+++++ my A++. While it’s too soon to declare that we’re in a recession, the data are at least pre-recessionary: that is, the numbers are weak enough that we should be seriously worried that a recession is coming. And that’s a state of affairs completely at odds with Trump’s rose-colored — spray-tanned? — picture.
I’ll talk about the reasons the gap between Trump’s big boasts and the glum reality matters in a minute. First, however, let’s talk about what we learned from yesterday’s report.
Most importantly, the data show a weak labor market. Employment isn’t falling off a cliff, but job growth has been weak and hasn’t kept pace with the number of people seeking work. The headline unemployment rate in November was 4.6 percent, up from an average of 4 percent in 2024. That number is close to triggering the Sahm Rule, an economic rule of thumb devised by Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, that has historically been highly successful at identifying the early stages of a recession.
We can’t do a strict application of the Sahm Rule yet because Sahm’s method is based on the average unemployment rate over the past three months. Unfortunately, the shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting key data in October. But if we do an interpolation of October’s unemployment rate by averaging over September’s rate of 4.4% and November’s rate of 4.6%, we can estimate that October’s unemployment rate was 4.5%. And those 3 months of unemployment numbers bring us within a whisker of the unemployment rise that, according to the Sahm Rule, signals that a recession is on the horizon.
The state of the economy looks even worse if we take a wider view of the labor market. The BLS calculates 6 different measures of unemployment. The most commonly cited number is U-3 — the number of workers who are actively seeking jobs but haven’t found them. But the broadest measure is U-6, which includes underemployed workers stuck in part-time employment and discouraged workers who have temporarily given up job search. And U-6 has risen sharply since January, when Trump took office:

Source: BLS

Further evidence consistent with a poor and deteriorating job market is data showing that the number of job-seekers who are long-term unemployed – that is, have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more – has risen by almost a third (from 1.45 million to 1.91 million) since 2024. This means that the unemployed are finding it harder to find jobs.
Read more details at the Substack link.
Most Americans aren’t stupid. They can see how much prices have gone up on necessities like food and electricity. Trump is losing popularity even with his MAGA base.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "I think the midterms are gonna be very hard for Republicans. I'm one of the people that's willing to admit the truth and say I don't see Republicans winning the midterms right now, so that doesn't bode well for Mike Johnson."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:20:39.871Z

Marjorie Taylor Greene was once one of Trump’s biggest supporters; now she’s turned on him. Victoria Craw at The Washington Post: Marjorie Taylor Greene says ‘dam is breaking’ within GOP against Trump.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) on Tuesday said President Donald Trump has “real problems” within the Republican Party, adding in an interview with CNN that the president is out of touch with voters on key issues such as affordability.
Greene told Kaitlan Collins on “The Source” that the “dam is breaking” in terms of Trump’s hold onsupport within the party and that she expects Republicans to struggle in next year’s midterm elections.
Citingthe backlash to Trump’s comments on the death of director Rob Reiner, the 13 HouseRepublicans who voted with Democrats to overturn Trump’s executive order on collective bargaining and Indiana Republicans’ rejection of the president’s redistricting push, Greene said she expected “pushback” within the party to grow as lawmakers enter the campaign phase for the upcoming elections.
“I think the midterms are going to be very hard for Republicans,” Greene said. “I’m one of the people that’s willing to admit the truth and say I don’t see Republicans winning the midterms right now.” [….]
Greene had carved out a high-profile role as one of Trump’s most vocal allies, first in the “Make America Great Again” movement and then with her support for the “America First” agenda. But after weeks of speaking out against the president on several issues, Greene and Trump had an acrimonious public split last month after she joined with Democrats on a discharge position to compel a House vote calling on the Justice Department to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein….
Speaking to The Washington Post this week, Greene described herself as a “bellwether” who is closely attuned to Trump’s base. “I say it, and then within four to six months, everybody’s saying the same thing,” she said….

“He’s got real problems with Republicans within the House and the Senate that will be breaking with him on more things to come,” she added.

Greene also said Trump’s supporters “didn’t appreciate” the president’s reaction to the death of Rob Reiner, who was found stabbed to death alongside his wife, photographer Michele Singer Reiner, in their Los Angeles home Sunday. The couple’s son Nick Reiner faces two counts of first-degree murder, among other charges, in their deaths.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "What I'd like to see from the president is empathy for Americans. Donald Trump is a billionaire and he's the president. When he looks into a camera and says 'affordability is a hoax,' he's talking to Americans that are suffering and have been for many years now."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2025-12-17T02:17:20.938Z

Moderate Republicans in the House are rebelling against Speaker Mike Johnson and his determination not to extend the ACA subsidies.

Meredith Lee Hill writes at Politico about another sign of Trump’s waning popularity and power: Frustrated GOP moderates join Democrats to force Obamacare extension vote.
Four House Republicans joined Democrats Wednesday to force a House vote on a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare tax credits that will expire Dec. 31, delivering a sharp rebuke to Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP leaders.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania signed the discharge petition filed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — hours after House GOP leaders rejected attempts by Fitzpatrick and other Republican moderates to seek a floor vote on extending the subsidies used by more than 20 million Americans.
Fitzpatrick said in a late-night House Rules Committee meeting Tuesday that “the only thing worse than a clean extension … would be expiration, and I would make that decision.” Lawler added that “the only feasible path forward is a discharge petition” if GOP leader reject a floor vote.
Under House rules, a completed discharge petition is subject to a waiting period, meaning no vote could happen until next month — though Johnson could choose to move sooner.
“We have worked for months to craft a two-party solution to address these expiring healthcare credits,” Fitzpatrick said in a statement Wednesday. “Our only request was a Floor vote on this compromise, so that the American People’s voice could be heard on this issue. That request was rejected. … Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome.”
Jeffries told reporters Wednesday his discharge petition is “the most straightforward path to ensuring that tens of millions of Americans don’t have their health care ripped away from them because of the expiration of the Affordable Care Act tax credits.”

"It's idiotic, it's political malpractice," Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) told reporters Tuesday of Johnson refusing to give them an ACA extension vote.Lawler, and other moderate Republicans didn't rule out joining Democrats to force a vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies, Axios reported.
— Ken Bazinet (@kenbazinet.bsky.social) 2025-12-16T21:38:46.444Z

Amanda Marcotte writes at Salon about the Republican rebellion: Republicans are quiet quitting on Trump.
Donald Trump is worried that Republicans aren’t as afraid of him as they used to be. Despite his self-billing as a dealmaker, the president has only ever had one tool to control his party: fear. GOP politicians have been afraid of career damage and literal physical harm if they crossed him. Trump is not above reminding elected officials that he has unhinged followers who are known to be violent. But as his approval ratings fall and the 2026 midterm elections inch closer, it seems Republicans are slightly less worried about the president’s wrath.
The first indicator was the House vote on Nov. 18 to release the Epstein files against Trump’s expressed wishes. But the biggest sign that the president’s grip on power is weakening came last week, when a majority of Republicans in the Indiana statehouse struck down a gerrymandering bill Trump had demanded.
As I argued in the latest Standing Room Only newsletter, this context helps explain why Trump responded to the death of beloved director Rob Reiner and his wife Michele with an ugliness that’s shocking — even for this president. Although the Los Angeles Police Department had arrested the couple’s son for the apparent homicide, Trump insinuated on Truth Social that it was one of his own followers who killed the Reiners out of revenge for their anti-Trump activism. He doubled down when asked about it by reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. The message was hard to miss: If you oppose Trump, he wishes you dead.
So far, his escalation doesn’t seem to be intimidating Republicans. Indiana Republicans were subject to an onslaught of death threats and abuse that including text messages sent to the friends of the grandson of one state senator. Most voted against Trump’s gerrymandering bill anyway. While Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pretended not to have heard Trump’s response to Reiner’s death, as Salon’s Sophia Tesfaye documented, most right-wing media, including Fox News, actually criticized Trump for his behavior.
These are promising signs, but it’s not worth holding your breath waiting for GOP politicians to openly turn on a president who demands absolute loyalty. Instead of public rebellion, most Republicans seem to be engaged in a form of quiet quitting. They won’t go out of their way to resist Trump, but they are losing enthusiasm for defending him. They’re struggling to hide their frustration or their scheming for a post-Trump world. Overall, the posture is one of lying low, waiting for the old man to be gone so they can begin the project of rebuilding the GOP and their own careers in a post-Trump era.
Read the rest at Salon.
Trump is also becoming noticeably less involved in actually running the government (gift link): The White House Is a Lost Cause.

There is a presidency at work in Washington, but it is not clear that there is a president at work in the Oval Office.
Ask Donald Trump about the goings on of his administration, and there is a good chance he’ll defer to a deputy rather than answer the question. “I don’t know her,” he said when asked about his nominee for surgeon general, Casey Means, earlier this year. “I listened to the recommendation of Bobby,” he said, pointing to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of health and human services.
Ask Trump for insight into why his administration made a choice or to explain a particular decision, and he’ll be at a loss for words. Ask him to comment on a scandal? He’ll plead ignorance. “I know nothing about it,” Trump said last week, when asked about the latest tranche of photographs released from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein.
None of this on its own means the president isn’t working or paying attention to the duties of his office. But consider the rest of the evidence. He is by most accounts isolated from the outside world. He does not travel the country and rarely meets with ordinary Americans outside the White House. He is shuttled from one Trump resort to another to play golf and hold court with donors, supporters and hangers-on.
Ronald Reagan took regular meetings with congressional leaders to discuss his legislative agenda; George H.W. Bush spearheaded negotiations with the nation’s allies and led the United States to war in Iraq; and George W. Bush was, for better or worse, “the decider” who performed leadership for the cameras as much as he tried to exercise it from the Oval Office. Trump is a ubiquitous cultural presence, but there is no outward sign that he is an active participant in running the national government. He was mostly absent during discussions of his signature legislation — the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — and practically AWOL during the monthlong government shutdown.
It is difficult for any president to get a clear read on the state of the nation; it takes work and discipline to clear the distance between the office and the people. But Trump, in his second term, does not seem to care about the disconnect. Abraham Lincoln once remarked that it would “never do for a president to have guards with drawn sabers at his door, as if he fancied he were, or were trying to be, or were assuming to be, an emperor.” A president has to be engaged — attentive to both the government and the public he was elected to serve.
Trump is neither. He is uninterested in anyone except his most devoted fans, and would rather collect gifts from foreign businessmen than take the reins of his administration. “The president doesn’t know and never will,” Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said in an interview with Vanity Fair, commenting on the work of Elon Musk in the first months of the year. “He doesn’t know the details of these smallish agencies.”
A bit more:

Russell Vought

Instead, the work of the White House has been delegated to a handful of high-level advisers. Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, is the de facto shadow president for domestic affairs. As one senior government official told ProPublica, “It feels like we work for Russ Vought. He has centralized decision-making power to an extent that he is the commander in chief.” It was Vought who orchestrated the administration’s assault on the federal bureaucracy, including the wholesale destruction of U.S.A.I.D. It was Vought who either froze or canceled hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for anti-poverty programs, H.I.V. reduction initiatives and research into science, medicine and technology. And it is Vought who has been pushing the boundaries of executive power as he attempts to turn the federal government into little more than an extension of the personal will of the president — as channeled through himself, of course.
If Vought is the nation’s shadow president for domestic policy, then Stephen Miller is its shadow president for internal security. Miller, Trump’s top domestic policy adviser, is using the president’s authority to try to transform the ethnic mix of the country — to make America white again, or at least whiter than it is now. He is the primary force behind the expansion of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection into a roving deportation force. He has pushed both agencies to step up their enforcement operations, targeting schools, restaurants, farms and other work sites and detaining anyone agents can get their hands on, regardless of citizenship or legal status. It is Miller who is behind the militarization of ICE, the use of the National Guard to occupy Democrat-led cities and assist deportation efforts, and the plan to blanket the United States with a network of detention camps for unauthorized immigrants and anyone else caught in his dragnet.
In other words, the Nazis are running White House policy. Use the gift link to read more.
The latest White House mess is the Vanity Fair profile of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Matt Dixon at NBC News: White House scrambles to address Susie Wiles’ explosive Vanity Fair interviews.
Susie Wiles generally helps quietly shape headlines. She is rarely the focus of them.
That changed in dramatic fashion Tuesday after Vanity Fair published a deeply reported profile of the 68-year-old White House chief of staff, whose decades-long career in politics has been defined by a measured, steady-the-ship tone, never one that could be construed as undermining her boss.
In the two-part Vanity Fair piece — which included 11 interviews over nearly a year, with the White House’s cooperation — Wiles comes off as far more candid than her public persona. She not only speaks openly about both President Donald Trump and those who make up the core of his administration, but appears to acknowledge that at times she has been at odds with some of the policies that have been central to Trump’s second term. While not unusual for a chief of staff to disagree with the president they serve, those concerns generally remain part of private conversations.

Susie Wiles

Wiles revealed there had been “huge disagreements” over implementing tariffs, acknowledged that the administration must “look harder” at its process for mass deportation and said she had to “get on board” with Trump’s decision to give blanket pardons to Jan. 6 defendants. She said she initially believed only those who did not commit violent acts should be pardoned.
The profile prompted an all-hands-on-deck pushback from the White House and Trump’s political orbit. The central talking point became that the profile lacked context, and supporters blasted the outlet for being unfair rather than offering any direct refutation of the authenticity of quotes or what was reported.
Wiles herself also offered rare public condemnation.
“Significant context was disregarded and much of what I, and others, said about the team and the President was left out of the story,” she posted on social media. “I assume, after reading it, that this was done to paint an overwhelmingly chaotic and negative narrative about the President and our team.”
In an interview with the New York Post, Trump defended his top staffer.
“I think from what I hear, the facts were wrong, and it was a very misguided interviewer, purposely misguided,”he said.
Trump added “she’s fantastic” when asked if he continues to have full confidence in Wiles.

More interesting stories:
AP: Trump orders blockade of ‘sanctioned oil tankers’ into Venezuela, ramping up pressure on Maduro.
CNN: Second near midair collision reported near Venezuela involving US Air Force tanker.
The Independent: Bari Weiss’ much-hyped CBS News town hall with Erika Kirk was a massive ratings flop.
Jacob Ware at Lawfare: A Terrorism of Vengeance. Understanding incels, school shooters, and the new category of terrorism, “nihilistic violent extremism.”
Politico: Judge lets Trump’s ballroom construction proceed.
That’s it for me today. What’s on your mind?

#ACASubsidies #DonaldTrump #MarjorieTaylorGreene #ModerateHouseRepublicans #PaulKrugman #RussellVought #StephenMiller #SusieWiles #USEconomy

#acasubsidies #donaldtrump #marjorietaylorgreene #moderatehouserepublicans #paulkrugman #russellvought
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-10-03 · 21:46 UTC
Finally Friday Reads: Project 2025 Plan to Destroy America is Offical

“I’m pretty sure all the Military Brass are impressed that the Secretary of War had his own personal makeup room built in the Pentagon. John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!
Most of us knew that Project 2025 would be the basis of policy. Republicans have wanted an Imperial Presidency for some time. Republicans have elected at least 3 useful idiots as President with the goal of destroying American democracy in mind. It’s why we have a huge deficit, and spending has been concentrated on the rich who can pay-to-play to get massive tax cuts and huge government subsidies.
There are examples in every state they control. Here in Louisiana, the damage from oil extraction and affiliated chemical industries has created massive damage, and just at the precise time that the EPA has been fully filleted. Not only has nothing real been done to abate the chemical spill that happened earlier this summer after a poorly managed plant that exploded in Roseland, a primarily black community, but it has not been fully abated. The actions behind the removal of LSU’s premier Lake Maurapas researcher have become clearer. Today, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released this important research. “Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ Is More Deadly Than Previously Imagined. New research shows that the industrial pollution—and the risk to human health—on Louisiana’s Cancer Alley have been significantly underestimated.
On an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, communities exist alongside some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants. Since the 1980s, the area has been known as Cancer Alley.
These plants process about 25% of the U.S.’s petrochemical products, Peter DeCarlo, PhD, associate professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, said in the July 2 episode of Public Health On Call—with many of the byproducts and emissions winding up in nearby communities’ air, water, and soil.
Residents of these communities suffer the effects of extreme air pollution, including increased rates and risks of maternal, reproductive, and newborn health harms; respiratory illnesses; and cancer. One area has the highest risk of cancer from industrial air pollution in the U.S.—more than seven times the national average.
But new research from DeCarlo, Keeve Nachman, PhD ’06, MHS ’01, professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, and their teams shows that the pollution—and the risk to human health—has been significantly underestimated.
In this Q&A, adapted from that podcast episode, DeCarlo and Nachman discuss their work measuring levels of pollutants in Louisiana and explain what these conclusions mean for how the U.S. should regulate carcinogens.
We may be drowning in toxic chemicals, but other states and cities are experiencing ICE Raids that resemble SS maneuvers. Additionally, we have new threats. Since the reality on the ground has embarrassed the Trump plan to send the military to “wartorn” Portland to defuse his imagined war on the ground, he’s come up with an alternative plan. This is from ABC News. “Leavitt says Trump exploring cutting aid to Portland.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is exploring plans to cut federal funding to Portland due to what she said was a rise in “Antifa” related incidents.”
“We will not fund states that allow anarchy,” she told reporters.
Antifa is not a group, but rather a political philosophy or movement. The term comes from the longer “anti-fascist” and is used as a catchall for groups that oppose the concept of authoritarianism, neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
If you want to sum it up, try this hypothesis for size. Republicans are willing to let all of us starve and die as long as they can get paid for enabling modern-day Robber Barons.
About six months into this reign of terror, murder, and destruction, I’m still not certain the legacy media is getting the bigger picture. However, yesterday, an announcement by Trump made them perk their ears once more. Will it be enough? This is from the AP. “Trump no longer distancing himself from Project 2025 as he uses the shutdown to further pursue its goals.”
President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.
In a post on his Truth Social site Thursday morning, Trump announced he would be meeting with his budget chief, “Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The comments represented a dramatic about-face for Trump, who spent much of last year denouncing Project 2025, The Heritage Foundation’s massive proposed overhaul of the federal government, which was drafted by many of his longtime allies and current and former administration officials.
You may recall that the implication of this document was central to the Democratic Party campaign. Kamala Harris made it a focal point of the convention and other speeches.
Top Trump campaign leaders spent much of 2024 livid at The Heritage Foundation for publishing a book full of unpopular proposals that Democrats tried to pin on the campaign to warn a second Trump term would be too extreme.
While many of the policies outlined in its 900-plus pages aligned closely with the agenda that Trump was proposing — particularly on curbing immigration and dismantling certain federal agencies — others called for action Trump had never discussed, like banning pornography, or Trump’s team was actively trying to avoid, like withdrawing approval for abortion medication.
Trump repeatedly insisted he knew nothing about the group or who was behind it, despite his close ties with many of its authors. They included John McEntee, his former director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, and Paul Dans, former chief of staff at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump’s campaign chiefs were equally critical.
“President Trump’s campaign has been very clear for over a year that Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign, did not speak for the campaign, and should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” wrote Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita in a campaign memo. They added, “Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign — it will not end well for you.”
Trump has since gone on to stock his second administration with its authors, including Vought, “border czar” Tom Homan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr, who wrote Project 2025’s chapter on the Federal Communications Commission and now chairs the panel.
Heritage did not respond to a request for comment Thursday. But Dans, the project’s former director, said it’s been “exciting” to see so much of what was laid out in the book put into action.
“It’s gratifying. We’re very proud of the work that was done for this express purpose: to have a doer like President Trump ready to roll on Day One,” said Dans, who is currently running for Senate against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
It was frequently averred that Stephen Miller was central to all plans for the project’s implementation. Only a few public intellectuals continued to warn of the plan and steps taken, while Yam Tit still shrugged off any implication that he was following the plan’s blueprint during the first six months. Well, that curtain has dropped.
AXIOS sums this evolution up neatly. “Trump charts path to total control amid government shutdown.’ This is reported by Zachary Basu.
President Trump is seizing on the government shutdown as an “unprecedented opportunity” to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power.
Why it matters: Many Democrats see the shutdown as a necessary evil to halt — or at least slow — Trump’s steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. So far, the standoff is only emboldening the White House.

Zoom in: Trump said he met Thursday with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what “Democrat agencies” should get cuts, casting the shutdown as a chance to shrink a federal workforce Trump has long viewed as hostile.
- Goading Democrats, Trump flaunted Vought’s role in Project 2025 (“he of PROJECT 2025 Fame”) — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed on the campaign trail after it became a political liability.
- For Vought, the shutdown offers a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency.
Already, Vought has announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators.
- He also has frozen $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a thinly veiled shot at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Legal challenges are inevitable: Congress controls the power of the purse, and federal officials privately have warned that Vought’s plans for mass firings during the shutdown may violate appropriations law.
The big picture: As Axios has documented, the shutdown is only one front in Trump’s broader campaign of consolidation.
- Military: In an unprecedented partisan address this week, Trump told more than 800 generals and admirals to prepare for a “war” against domestic “enemies,” urging them to treat America’s cities as “training grounds.”
- Academia: The administration is asking universities to sign a 10-point “compact” that would grant preferential access to federal funding if schools agree to freeze tuition, protect conservative speech, apply strict definitions of gender, limit international students and other Trump priorities.
- Rule of law: Days after Trump publicly pressured Attorney General Pam Bondi to charge his political enemies, the Justice Department indicted former FBI director James Comey. Other Trump foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), are under investigation.
- Civil society: FBI director Kash Patel severed ties with the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, accusing the Jewish civil rights group of “functioning like a terrorist organization” after MAGA activists discovered that Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was listed in its now-removed “Glossary of Extremism and Hate.” Trump also has urged the Justice Department to investigate Democratic megadonor George Soros’ Open Society Foundations as part of a crackdown on liberal groups following Kirk’s assassination.
- Corporate America: Trump demanded last week that Microsoft fire its head of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she served in the Biden administration — a reminder that even corporate giants aren’t immune from political retaliation. Trump had previously called on Intel’s CEO to resign over alleged ties to China, but backed off after the U.S. government took a 10% equity stake in the chip-maker.
More at the link.
MSNBC’s Maddow Blog has this analysis. As usual, Steve Benen has the led. “Trump picks a convenient time to change his tune about the Project 2025 agenda. Remember last year when Trump feigned ignorance about the right-wing governing blueprint? A year later, the president no longer bothers with the pretense.”
As the second full day of the latest government shutdown got underway, Donald Trump published an odd message to his social media platform, which raised plenty of eyebrows throughout the political world.
“I have a meeting today with [White House Budget Director] Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat [sic] Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent,” the president wrote.
We don’t yet know what transpired at that meeting, but Trump’s weird phrasing was itself notable. For example, there are no federal departments or offices that should be called “Democrat Agencies.” There are only American agencies, which do work on behalf of the American people and which are currently led, at least in part, by Trump’s own appointees.
Similarly, the idea that federal agencies deserve to be condemned as “a political SCAM” is every bit as bizarre as it sounds. We’re talking about offices, some of which have been around for many years, that were created by Congress. Their existence is reinforced in federal law, which the president is required to enforce.
As for the possibility that Trump and the far-right head of his Office of Management and Budget might “permanently” weaken departments that the White House no longer likes, it’s worth keeping in mind that such efforts might very well be illegal.
But let’s also not brush past that other phrase: Vought, the president wrote, is “of PROJECT 2025 Fame.” As The Associated Press summarized:

President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.

For those who might benefit from a refresher, throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump realized that the Project 2025 agenda was so radical and unpopular that he treated is as radioactive. “I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it,” the Republican said over the summer about the blueprint largely written by members of his own team. He added, “I have nothing to do with them.”
Here’s some analysis from Time Magazine‘s Editorial Fellow Connor Greene. “Trump Is No Longer Denying Support for Project 2025: What to Know.”
President Donald Trump has changed his tune on the conservative policy plan Project 2025 after actively distancing himself from it for months during his reelection campaign.
Trump announced on Thursday that he would be meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, “he of PROJECT 2025 Fame,” to decide which “Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The post marks a significant shift from the President’s past disavowals of the unpopular right-wing policy blueprint, which was created by conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation ahead of the 2024 election. “I have nothing to do with Project 2025. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it,” Trump said in a debate last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s repeated insistence that he didn’t know anything about Project 2025, however, he had close ties with a number of its authors, several of whom have served in his Administrations—including Vought. And since he returned to the White House in January his second Administration has taken steps to implement a number of the proposals detailed in the over 900-page document.
Now, amid the government shutdown, Trump is moving to further fulfill Project 2025’s goals of reducing the federal workforce and extending his executive powers—and, it appears, openly embracing the plan.
The big question sis what does this mean for the shutdown and the country?
Despite his criticisms of Project 2025, many of the Trump Administration’s actions since he returned to office have mirrored aspects of the blueprint. An analysis by TIME in January found that nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions reflected—in whole or in part—proposals in Project 2025.
Among the parts of the plan that Trump has carried out is its recommendation to aggressively reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
Trump and hisDepartment of Government Efficiency moved quickly to cut more than 200,000 federal employees, though some of the layoffs have since been held up in the courts after being challenged by lawsuits. His Administration has also looked to slash federal funding through various freezes, clawbacks, cuts, and recissions.
Trump has announced plans to execute still more cuts amid the government shutdown. In the leadup to the deadline to fund the government this week, the White House directed agencies to prepare for mass firings in the event that Congress couldn’t reach a deal, rather than furloughing those not deemed essential as in past shutdowns.
The Administration has additionally used the shutdown to cancel $8 billion in green energy projects in Democratic-led states, withhold $18 billion in transportation projects in New York City, and pause $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Chicago.
Here’s a just a bit of the latest information on Russell Voight. This startling headline is from Politico. “Thune warns Democrats about Russ Vought: ‘We don’t control what he’s going to do’ The Senate majority leader spoke out as some Republicans express qualms about the White House slash-and-burn campaign.” The reporter for this piece is Jourdain Carney.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune isn’t endorsing the slash-and-burn campaign White House budget director Russ Vought has planned for the federal government during the pending shutdown.
But he says Democrats have no one to blame for it but themselves.
“This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said in an exclusive interview Wednesday in the Capitol, adding that “there should have been an expectation” among Democrats that Vought’s Office of Management and Budget could broadly target government workers and programs in a shutdown.
Thune spoke on the same day that several Republicans aired discomfort with Vought’s moves after the shutdown went into effect. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York spoke out against his decision to hold up major transportation projects in his state, while Reps. Blake Moore of Utah and Brian Babin of Texas spoke up on a private House GOP call with Vought raising qualms about potential mass layoffs.
Vought’s actions also risk being a distraction for Republicans, who have sought to stick to a simple message putting the onus on Democrats to reopen the government. Pressed on whether Vought was muddying the waters, Thune said, “The only thing I would say about that is yes, and we don’t control what he’s going to do.”
The White House has made no secret that its strategy is to inflict maximum political pressure on Democrats to try to get them to reopen the government. Vought warned ahead of the start of the shutdown that OMB would take aggressive steps beyond typical furloughs, where employees are brought back to work after the government reopens.
The budget office directed agencies in a memo first reported by POLITICO last week to put together plans for reductions-in-force — or firings — of federal employees. Vought himself told House Republicans during the Wednesday call that those firings would start in a “day or two.”
“I can’t control that,” Thune said about decisions made by OMB. “But the Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.”
This final suggested read is from Mother Jones. “Russ Vought Is Trump’s Shutdown Hero. His Neighbors Think His Work Is “Abhorrent.” The people living near Trump’s “grim reaper” of government cuts have put up signs letting him know they stand with federal workers.” This is reported by Isabela Dias.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump shared a music video on Truth Social. In it, an AI-generated Russ Vought—Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget and a Project 2025 mastermind—is the grim reaper, carrying a scythe along a hallway lined with portraits of Democratic leaders. Vought, the video’s soundtrack explains, “wields the pen, the funds, and the brain” to enforce the president’s plans to axe federal workers.
“Everyone still remembers when he said he wanted to cause maximum trauma to federal workers,” the neighbor said. “And that’s hard to forget.”
Most of Vought’s neighbors I talked to for this article declined to speak on the record or asked to remain anonymous. Some said they didn’t want to create a rift in an otherwise cordial neighborhood, while others worried about retribution or negative repercussions from their employers.
“I just wish he would have gotten to know us,” Hunter said. “We consider ourselves good Americans, we have good values. And I don’t think he’s been interested in getting to know any of us, in hearing if we might have a difference of opinion.”
Last week, Vought sent around a memo blaming Democrats’ “insane demands” for the imminent lapse in funding and instructing agency heads to start making plans to cut non-mandatory programs “not consistent with the President’s priorities” and “use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force.” Appearing on Fox Business, Vought claimed an “authority to make permanent change to the bureaucracy here in government” during the shutdown.
He has since announced pauses to funding for infrastructure projects in New York—home state of House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who called Vought a “malignant political hack”—and slowdowns in clean energy projects in several blue states.
Vought, Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said on Fox News, “has been dreaming about and preparing for his moment since puberty.”
AsIwrote in a profile of Vought from 2024, the bespectacled official spent years as a Washington insider and government bureaucrat before becoming the architect of a supersized second Trump presidency.
An avowed Christian nationalist and dedicated America First warrior, he once described the job of OMB director as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent” and criticized the federal bureaucracy for standing in the way of the president’s agenda. During Trump’s first term, Vought tried to implement an executive order that would have made it easier for political appointees to fire career civil servants and replace them with MAGA loyalists. Now, he’s getting to realize his vision while earning points with the president.
See what’s in the cards for us? Read them and weep. The Voight cartoons are from The Nation. They have a primar on Vought that you really should read. “Project 2025: Vought’s Your Problem? Not too bad to be true.” Steve Brodner is the artist and his cartoons have descriptions of their design. Go see the rest!
I’ve been a little late today, I’m sorry. I woke up late last night in a lot of pain and took some acetaminophen for relief. In my mind I was seeing it as some sort of ritual to defang Trump’s war on Health Care. I also got a call from youngest with my first grandson. Aiden, like his mémé is quite verbal. I really worked on this piece because I wanted to get as many sources as I could on this abomination and put my time in it than usual. I was researching stuff like the researcher I am. I am vorasciously reading up on this and I suggest you do too.
What’s on your Reading, Action, and Blogging list today?

#Repeat1968 #DestructionOfFederalAgencies #governmentShutdown2025m #JohnBuss #LousianaSCancerAlley #PeoplePower #Project25 #RussVought #StevenBrodner
#repeat1968 #destructionoffederalagencies #governmentshutdown2025m #johnbuss #lousianascanceralley #peoplepower
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-10-03 · 21:46 UTC
Finally Friday Reads: Project 2025 Plan to Destroy America is Offical

“I’m pretty sure all the Military Brass are impressed that the Secretary of War had his own personal makeup room built in the Pentagon. John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!
Most of us knew that Project 2025 would be the basis of policy. Republicans have wanted an Imperial Presidency for some time. Republicans have elected at least 3 useful idiots as President with the goal of destroying American democracy in mind. It’s why we have a huge deficit, and spending has been concentrated on the rich who can pay-to-play to get massive tax cuts and huge government subsidies.
There are examples in every state they control. Here in Louisiana, the damage from oil extraction and affiliated chemical industries has created massive damage, and just at the precise time that the EPA has been fully filleted. Not only has nothing real been done to abate the chemical spill that happened earlier this summer after a poorly managed plant that exploded in Roseland, a primarily black community, but it has not been fully abated. The actions behind the removal of LSU’s premier Lake Maurapas researcher have become clearer. Today, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released this important research. “Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ Is More Deadly Than Previously Imagined. New research shows that the industrial pollution—and the risk to human health—on Louisiana’s Cancer Alley have been significantly underestimated.
On an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, communities exist alongside some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants. Since the 1980s, the area has been known as Cancer Alley.
These plants process about 25% of the U.S.’s petrochemical products, Peter DeCarlo, PhD, associate professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, said in the July 2 episode of Public Health On Call—with many of the byproducts and emissions winding up in nearby communities’ air, water, and soil.
Residents of these communities suffer the effects of extreme air pollution, including increased rates and risks of maternal, reproductive, and newborn health harms; respiratory illnesses; and cancer. One area has the highest risk of cancer from industrial air pollution in the U.S.—more than seven times the national average.
But new research from DeCarlo, Keeve Nachman, PhD ’06, MHS ’01, professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, and their teams shows that the pollution—and the risk to human health—has been significantly underestimated.
In this Q&A, adapted from that podcast episode, DeCarlo and Nachman discuss their work measuring levels of pollutants in Louisiana and explain what these conclusions mean for how the U.S. should regulate carcinogens.
We may be drowning in toxic chemicals, but other states and cities are experiencing ICE Raids that resemble SS maneuvers. Additionally, we have new threats. Since the reality on the ground has embarrassed the Trump plan to send the military to “wartorn” Portland to defuse his imagined war on the ground, he’s come up with an alternative plan. This is from ABC News. “Leavitt says Trump exploring cutting aid to Portland.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is exploring plans to cut federal funding to Portland due to what she said was a rise in “Antifa” related incidents.”
“We will not fund states that allow anarchy,” she told reporters.
Antifa is not a group, but rather a political philosophy or movement. The term comes from the longer “anti-fascist” and is used as a catchall for groups that oppose the concept of authoritarianism, neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
If you want to sum it up, try this hypothesis for size. Republicans are willing to let all of us starve and die as long as they can get paid for enabling modern-day Robber Barons.
About six months into this reign of terror, murder, and destruction, I’m still not certain the legacy media is getting the bigger picture. However, yesterday, an announcement by Trump made them perk their ears once more. Will it be enough? This is from the AP. “Trump no longer distancing himself from Project 2025 as he uses the shutdown to further pursue its goals.”
President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.
In a post on his Truth Social site Thursday morning, Trump announced he would be meeting with his budget chief, “Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The comments represented a dramatic about-face for Trump, who spent much of last year denouncing Project 2025, The Heritage Foundation’s massive proposed overhaul of the federal government, which was drafted by many of his longtime allies and current and former administration officials.
You may recall that the implication of this document was central to the Democratic Party campaign. Kamala Harris made it a focal point of the convention and other speeches.
Top Trump campaign leaders spent much of 2024 livid at The Heritage Foundation for publishing a book full of unpopular proposals that Democrats tried to pin on the campaign to warn a second Trump term would be too extreme.
While many of the policies outlined in its 900-plus pages aligned closely with the agenda that Trump was proposing — particularly on curbing immigration and dismantling certain federal agencies — others called for action Trump had never discussed, like banning pornography, or Trump’s team was actively trying to avoid, like withdrawing approval for abortion medication.
Trump repeatedly insisted he knew nothing about the group or who was behind it, despite his close ties with many of its authors. They included John McEntee, his former director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, and Paul Dans, former chief of staff at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump’s campaign chiefs were equally critical.
“President Trump’s campaign has been very clear for over a year that Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign, did not speak for the campaign, and should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” wrote Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita in a campaign memo. They added, “Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign — it will not end well for you.”
Trump has since gone on to stock his second administration with its authors, including Vought, “border czar” Tom Homan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr, who wrote Project 2025’s chapter on the Federal Communications Commission and now chairs the panel.
Heritage did not respond to a request for comment Thursday. But Dans, the project’s former director, said it’s been “exciting” to see so much of what was laid out in the book put into action.
“It’s gratifying. We’re very proud of the work that was done for this express purpose: to have a doer like President Trump ready to roll on Day One,” said Dans, who is currently running for Senate against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
It was frequently averred that Stephen Miller was central to all plans for the project’s implementation. Only a few public intellectuals continued to warn of the plan and steps taken, while Yam Tit still shrugged off any implication that he was following the plan’s blueprint during the first six months. Well, that curtain has dropped.
AXIOS sums this evolution up neatly. “Trump charts path to total control amid government shutdown.’ This is reported by Zachary Basu.
President Trump is seizing on the government shutdown as an “unprecedented opportunity” to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power.
Why it matters: Many Democrats see the shutdown as a necessary evil to halt — or at least slow — Trump’s steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. So far, the standoff is only emboldening the White House.

Zoom in: Trump said he met Thursday with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what “Democrat agencies” should get cuts, casting the shutdown as a chance to shrink a federal workforce Trump has long viewed as hostile.
- Goading Democrats, Trump flaunted Vought’s role in Project 2025 (“he of PROJECT 2025 Fame”) — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed on the campaign trail after it became a political liability.
- For Vought, the shutdown offers a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency.
Already, Vought has announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators.
- He also has frozen $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a thinly veiled shot at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Legal challenges are inevitable: Congress controls the power of the purse, and federal officials privately have warned that Vought’s plans for mass firings during the shutdown may violate appropriations law.
The big picture: As Axios has documented, the shutdown is only one front in Trump’s broader campaign of consolidation.
- Military: In an unprecedented partisan address this week, Trump told more than 800 generals and admirals to prepare for a “war” against domestic “enemies,” urging them to treat America’s cities as “training grounds.”
- Academia: The administration is asking universities to sign a 10-point “compact” that would grant preferential access to federal funding if schools agree to freeze tuition, protect conservative speech, apply strict definitions of gender, limit international students and other Trump priorities.
- Rule of law: Days after Trump publicly pressured Attorney General Pam Bondi to charge his political enemies, the Justice Department indicted former FBI director James Comey. Other Trump foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), are under investigation.
- Civil society: FBI director Kash Patel severed ties with the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, accusing the Jewish civil rights group of “functioning like a terrorist organization” after MAGA activists discovered that Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was listed in its now-removed “Glossary of Extremism and Hate.” Trump also has urged the Justice Department to investigate Democratic megadonor George Soros’ Open Society Foundations as part of a crackdown on liberal groups following Kirk’s assassination.
- Corporate America: Trump demanded last week that Microsoft fire its head of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she served in the Biden administration — a reminder that even corporate giants aren’t immune from political retaliation. Trump had previously called on Intel’s CEO to resign over alleged ties to China, but backed off after the U.S. government took a 10% equity stake in the chip-maker.
More at the link.
MSNBC’s Maddow Blog has this analysis. As usual, Steve Benen has the led. “Trump picks a convenient time to change his tune about the Project 2025 agenda. Remember last year when Trump feigned ignorance about the right-wing governing blueprint? A year later, the president no longer bothers with the pretense.”
As the second full day of the latest government shutdown got underway, Donald Trump published an odd message to his social media platform, which raised plenty of eyebrows throughout the political world.
“I have a meeting today with [White House Budget Director] Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat [sic] Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent,” the president wrote.
We don’t yet know what transpired at that meeting, but Trump’s weird phrasing was itself notable. For example, there are no federal departments or offices that should be called “Democrat Agencies.” There are only American agencies, which do work on behalf of the American people and which are currently led, at least in part, by Trump’s own appointees.
Similarly, the idea that federal agencies deserve to be condemned as “a political SCAM” is every bit as bizarre as it sounds. We’re talking about offices, some of which have been around for many years, that were created by Congress. Their existence is reinforced in federal law, which the president is required to enforce.
As for the possibility that Trump and the far-right head of his Office of Management and Budget might “permanently” weaken departments that the White House no longer likes, it’s worth keeping in mind that such efforts might very well be illegal.
But let’s also not brush past that other phrase: Vought, the president wrote, is “of PROJECT 2025 Fame.” As The Associated Press summarized:

President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.

For those who might benefit from a refresher, throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump realized that the Project 2025 agenda was so radical and unpopular that he treated is as radioactive. “I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it,” the Republican said over the summer about the blueprint largely written by members of his own team. He added, “I have nothing to do with them.”
Here’s some analysis from Time Magazine‘s Editorial Fellow Connor Greene. “Trump Is No Longer Denying Support for Project 2025: What to Know.”
President Donald Trump has changed his tune on the conservative policy plan Project 2025 after actively distancing himself from it for months during his reelection campaign.
Trump announced on Thursday that he would be meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, “he of PROJECT 2025 Fame,” to decide which “Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The post marks a significant shift from the President’s past disavowals of the unpopular right-wing policy blueprint, which was created by conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation ahead of the 2024 election. “I have nothing to do with Project 2025. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it,” Trump said in a debate last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s repeated insistence that he didn’t know anything about Project 2025, however, he had close ties with a number of its authors, several of whom have served in his Administrations—including Vought. And since he returned to the White House in January his second Administration has taken steps to implement a number of the proposals detailed in the over 900-page document.
Now, amid the government shutdown, Trump is moving to further fulfill Project 2025’s goals of reducing the federal workforce and extending his executive powers—and, it appears, openly embracing the plan.
The big question sis what does this mean for the shutdown and the country?
Despite his criticisms of Project 2025, many of the Trump Administration’s actions since he returned to office have mirrored aspects of the blueprint. An analysis by TIME in January found that nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions reflected—in whole or in part—proposals in Project 2025.
Among the parts of the plan that Trump has carried out is its recommendation to aggressively reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
Trump and hisDepartment of Government Efficiency moved quickly to cut more than 200,000 federal employees, though some of the layoffs have since been held up in the courts after being challenged by lawsuits. His Administration has also looked to slash federal funding through various freezes, clawbacks, cuts, and recissions.
Trump has announced plans to execute still more cuts amid the government shutdown. In the leadup to the deadline to fund the government this week, the White House directed agencies to prepare for mass firings in the event that Congress couldn’t reach a deal, rather than furloughing those not deemed essential as in past shutdowns.
The Administration has additionally used the shutdown to cancel $8 billion in green energy projects in Democratic-led states, withhold $18 billion in transportation projects in New York City, and pause $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Chicago.
Here’s a just a bit of the latest information on Russell Voight. This startling headline is from Politico. “Thune warns Democrats about Russ Vought: ‘We don’t control what he’s going to do’ The Senate majority leader spoke out as some Republicans express qualms about the White House slash-and-burn campaign.” The reporter for this piece is Jourdain Carney.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune isn’t endorsing the slash-and-burn campaign White House budget director Russ Vought has planned for the federal government during the pending shutdown.
But he says Democrats have no one to blame for it but themselves.
“This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said in an exclusive interview Wednesday in the Capitol, adding that “there should have been an expectation” among Democrats that Vought’s Office of Management and Budget could broadly target government workers and programs in a shutdown.
Thune spoke on the same day that several Republicans aired discomfort with Vought’s moves after the shutdown went into effect. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York spoke out against his decision to hold up major transportation projects in his state, while Reps. Blake Moore of Utah and Brian Babin of Texas spoke up on a private House GOP call with Vought raising qualms about potential mass layoffs.
Vought’s actions also risk being a distraction for Republicans, who have sought to stick to a simple message putting the onus on Democrats to reopen the government. Pressed on whether Vought was muddying the waters, Thune said, “The only thing I would say about that is yes, and we don’t control what he’s going to do.”
The White House has made no secret that its strategy is to inflict maximum political pressure on Democrats to try to get them to reopen the government. Vought warned ahead of the start of the shutdown that OMB would take aggressive steps beyond typical furloughs, where employees are brought back to work after the government reopens.
The budget office directed agencies in a memo first reported by POLITICO last week to put together plans for reductions-in-force — or firings — of federal employees. Vought himself told House Republicans during the Wednesday call that those firings would start in a “day or two.”
“I can’t control that,” Thune said about decisions made by OMB. “But the Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.”
This final suggested read is from Mother Jones. “Russ Vought Is Trump’s Shutdown Hero. His Neighbors Think His Work Is “Abhorrent.” The people living near Trump’s “grim reaper” of government cuts have put up signs letting him know they stand with federal workers.” This is reported by Isabela Dias.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump shared a music video on Truth Social. In it, an AI-generated Russ Vought—Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget and a Project 2025 mastermind—is the grim reaper, carrying a scythe along a hallway lined with portraits of Democratic leaders. Vought, the video’s soundtrack explains, “wields the pen, the funds, and the brain” to enforce the president’s plans to axe federal workers.
“Everyone still remembers when he said he wanted to cause maximum trauma to federal workers,” the neighbor said. “And that’s hard to forget.”
Most of Vought’s neighbors I talked to for this article declined to speak on the record or asked to remain anonymous. Some said they didn’t want to create a rift in an otherwise cordial neighborhood, while others worried about retribution or negative repercussions from their employers.
“I just wish he would have gotten to know us,” Hunter said. “We consider ourselves good Americans, we have good values. And I don’t think he’s been interested in getting to know any of us, in hearing if we might have a difference of opinion.”
Last week, Vought sent around a memo blaming Democrats’ “insane demands” for the imminent lapse in funding and instructing agency heads to start making plans to cut non-mandatory programs “not consistent with the President’s priorities” and “use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force.” Appearing on Fox Business, Vought claimed an “authority to make permanent change to the bureaucracy here in government” during the shutdown.
He has since announced pauses to funding for infrastructure projects in New York—home state of House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who called Vought a “malignant political hack”—and slowdowns in clean energy projects in several blue states.
Vought, Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said on Fox News, “has been dreaming about and preparing for his moment since puberty.”
AsIwrote in a profile of Vought from 2024, the bespectacled official spent years as a Washington insider and government bureaucrat before becoming the architect of a supersized second Trump presidency.
An avowed Christian nationalist and dedicated America First warrior, he once described the job of OMB director as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent” and criticized the federal bureaucracy for standing in the way of the president’s agenda. During Trump’s first term, Vought tried to implement an executive order that would have made it easier for political appointees to fire career civil servants and replace them with MAGA loyalists. Now, he’s getting to realize his vision while earning points with the president.
See what’s in the cards for us? Read them and weep. The Voight cartoons are from The Nation. They have a primar on Vought that you really should read. “Project 2025: Vought’s Your Problem? Not too bad to be true.” Steve Brodner is the artist and his cartoons have descriptions of their design. Go see the rest!
I’ve been a little late today, I’m sorry. I woke up late last night in a lot of pain and took some acetaminophen for relief. In my mind I was seeing it as some sort of ritual to defang Trump’s war on Health Care. I also got a call from youngest with my first grandson. Aiden, like his mémé is quite verbal. I really worked on this piece because I wanted to get as many sources as I could on this abomination and put my time in it than usual. I was researching stuff like the researcher I am. I am vorasciously reading up on this and I suggest you do too.
What’s on your Reading, Action, and Blogging list today?
#Repeat1968 #DestructionOfFederalAgencies #governmentShutdown2025m #JohnBuss #LousianaSCancerAlley #PeoplePower #Project25 #RussVought #StevenBrodner
#repeat1968 #destructionoffederalagencies #governmentshutdown2025m #johnbuss #lousianascanceralley #peoplepower
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-10-03 · 21:46 UTC
Finally Friday Reads: Project 2025 Plan to Destroy America is Offical

“I’m pretty sure all the Military Brass are impressed that the Secretary of War had his own personal makeup room built in the Pentagon. John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!
Most of us knew that Project 2025 would be the basis of policy. Republicans have wanted an Imperial Presidency for some time. Republicans have elected at least 3 useful idiots as President with the goal of destroying American democracy in mind. It’s why we have a huge deficit, and spending has been concentrated on the rich who can pay-to-play to get massive tax cuts and huge government subsidies.
There are examples in every state they control. Here in Louisiana, the damage from oil extraction and affiliated chemical industries has created massive damage, and just at the precise time that the EPA has been fully filleted. Not only has nothing real been done to abate the chemical spill that happened earlier this summer after a poorly managed plant that exploded in Roseland, a primarily black community, but it has not been fully abated. The actions behind the removal of LSU’s premier Lake Maurapas researcher have become clearer. Today, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released this important research. “Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ Is More Deadly Than Previously Imagined. New research shows that the industrial pollution—and the risk to human health—on Louisiana’s Cancer Alley have been significantly underestimated.
On an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, communities exist alongside some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants. Since the 1980s, the area has been known as Cancer Alley.
These plants process about 25% of the U.S.’s petrochemical products, Peter DeCarlo, PhD, associate professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, said in the July 2 episode of Public Health On Call—with many of the byproducts and emissions winding up in nearby communities’ air, water, and soil.
Residents of these communities suffer the effects of extreme air pollution, including increased rates and risks of maternal, reproductive, and newborn health harms; respiratory illnesses; and cancer. One area has the highest risk of cancer from industrial air pollution in the U.S.—more than seven times the national average.
But new research from DeCarlo, Keeve Nachman, PhD ’06, MHS ’01, professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, and their teams shows that the pollution—and the risk to human health—has been significantly underestimated.
In this Q&A, adapted from that podcast episode, DeCarlo and Nachman discuss their work measuring levels of pollutants in Louisiana and explain what these conclusions mean for how the U.S. should regulate carcinogens.
We may be drowning in toxic chemicals, but other states and cities are experiencing ICE Raids that resemble SS maneuvers. Additionally, we have new threats. Since the reality on the ground has embarrassed the Trump plan to send the military to “wartorn” Portland to defuse his imagined war on the ground, he’s come up with an alternative plan. This is from ABC News. “Leavitt says Trump exploring cutting aid to Portland.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is exploring plans to cut federal funding to Portland due to what she said was a rise in “Antifa” related incidents.”
“We will not fund states that allow anarchy,” she told reporters.
Antifa is not a group, but rather a political philosophy or movement. The term comes from the longer “anti-fascist” and is used as a catchall for groups that oppose the concept of authoritarianism, neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
If you want to sum it up, try this hypothesis for size. Republicans are willing to let all of us starve and die as long as they can get paid for enabling modern-day Robber Barons.
About six months into this reign of terror, murder, and destruction, I’m still not certain the legacy media is getting the bigger picture. However, yesterday, an announcement by Trump made them perk their ears once more. Will it be enough? This is from the AP. “Trump no longer distancing himself from Project 2025 as he uses the shutdown to further pursue its goals.”
President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.
In a post on his Truth Social site Thursday morning, Trump announced he would be meeting with his budget chief, “Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The comments represented a dramatic about-face for Trump, who spent much of last year denouncing Project 2025, The Heritage Foundation’s massive proposed overhaul of the federal government, which was drafted by many of his longtime allies and current and former administration officials.
You may recall that the implication of this document was central to the Democratic Party campaign. Kamala Harris made it a focal point of the convention and other speeches.
Top Trump campaign leaders spent much of 2024 livid at The Heritage Foundation for publishing a book full of unpopular proposals that Democrats tried to pin on the campaign to warn a second Trump term would be too extreme.
While many of the policies outlined in its 900-plus pages aligned closely with the agenda that Trump was proposing — particularly on curbing immigration and dismantling certain federal agencies — others called for action Trump had never discussed, like banning pornography, or Trump’s team was actively trying to avoid, like withdrawing approval for abortion medication.
Trump repeatedly insisted he knew nothing about the group or who was behind it, despite his close ties with many of its authors. They included John McEntee, his former director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, and Paul Dans, former chief of staff at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump’s campaign chiefs were equally critical.
“President Trump’s campaign has been very clear for over a year that Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign, did not speak for the campaign, and should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” wrote Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita in a campaign memo. They added, “Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign — it will not end well for you.”
Trump has since gone on to stock his second administration with its authors, including Vought, “border czar” Tom Homan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr, who wrote Project 2025’s chapter on the Federal Communications Commission and now chairs the panel.
Heritage did not respond to a request for comment Thursday. But Dans, the project’s former director, said it’s been “exciting” to see so much of what was laid out in the book put into action.
“It’s gratifying. We’re very proud of the work that was done for this express purpose: to have a doer like President Trump ready to roll on Day One,” said Dans, who is currently running for Senate against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
It was frequently averred that Stephen Miller was central to all plans for the project’s implementation. Only a few public intellectuals continued to warn of the plan and steps taken, while Yam Tit still shrugged off any implication that he was following the plan’s blueprint during the first six months. Well, that curtain has dropped.
AXIOS sums this evolution up neatly. “Trump charts path to total control amid government shutdown.’ This is reported by Zachary Basu.
President Trump is seizing on the government shutdown as an “unprecedented opportunity” to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power.
Why it matters: Many Democrats see the shutdown as a necessary evil to halt — or at least slow — Trump’s steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. So far, the standoff is only emboldening the White House.

Zoom in: Trump said he met Thursday with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what “Democrat agencies” should get cuts, casting the shutdown as a chance to shrink a federal workforce Trump has long viewed as hostile.
- Goading Democrats, Trump flaunted Vought’s role in Project 2025 (“he of PROJECT 2025 Fame”) — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed on the campaign trail after it became a political liability.
- For Vought, the shutdown offers a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency.
Already, Vought has announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators.
- He also has frozen $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a thinly veiled shot at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Legal challenges are inevitable: Congress controls the power of the purse, and federal officials privately have warned that Vought’s plans for mass firings during the shutdown may violate appropriations law.
The big picture: As Axios has documented, the shutdown is only one front in Trump’s broader campaign of consolidation.
- Military: In an unprecedented partisan address this week, Trump told more than 800 generals and admirals to prepare for a “war” against domestic “enemies,” urging them to treat America’s cities as “training grounds.”
- Academia: The administration is asking universities to sign a 10-point “compact” that would grant preferential access to federal funding if schools agree to freeze tuition, protect conservative speech, apply strict definitions of gender, limit international students and other Trump priorities.
- Rule of law: Days after Trump publicly pressured Attorney General Pam Bondi to charge his political enemies, the Justice Department indicted former FBI director James Comey. Other Trump foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), are under investigation.
- Civil society: FBI director Kash Patel severed ties with the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, accusing the Jewish civil rights group of “functioning like a terrorist organization” after MAGA activists discovered that Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was listed in its now-removed “Glossary of Extremism and Hate.” Trump also has urged the Justice Department to investigate Democratic megadonor George Soros’ Open Society Foundations as part of a crackdown on liberal groups following Kirk’s assassination.
- Corporate America: Trump demanded last week that Microsoft fire its head of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she served in the Biden administration — a reminder that even corporate giants aren’t immune from political retaliation. Trump had previously called on Intel’s CEO to resign over alleged ties to China, but backed off after the U.S. government took a 10% equity stake in the chip-maker.
More at the link.
MSNBC’s Maddow Blog has this analysis. As usual, Steve Benen has the led. “Trump picks a convenient time to change his tune about the Project 2025 agenda. Remember last year when Trump feigned ignorance about the right-wing governing blueprint? A year later, the president no longer bothers with the pretense.”
As the second full day of the latest government shutdown got underway, Donald Trump published an odd message to his social media platform, which raised plenty of eyebrows throughout the political world.
“I have a meeting today with [White House Budget Director] Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat [sic] Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent,” the president wrote.
We don’t yet know what transpired at that meeting, but Trump’s weird phrasing was itself notable. For example, there are no federal departments or offices that should be called “Democrat Agencies.” There are only American agencies, which do work on behalf of the American people and which are currently led, at least in part, by Trump’s own appointees.
Similarly, the idea that federal agencies deserve to be condemned as “a political SCAM” is every bit as bizarre as it sounds. We’re talking about offices, some of which have been around for many years, that were created by Congress. Their existence is reinforced in federal law, which the president is required to enforce.
As for the possibility that Trump and the far-right head of his Office of Management and Budget might “permanently” weaken departments that the White House no longer likes, it’s worth keeping in mind that such efforts might very well be illegal.
But let’s also not brush past that other phrase: Vought, the president wrote, is “of PROJECT 2025 Fame.” As The Associated Press summarized:

President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.

For those who might benefit from a refresher, throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump realized that the Project 2025 agenda was so radical and unpopular that he treated is as radioactive. “I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it,” the Republican said over the summer about the blueprint largely written by members of his own team. He added, “I have nothing to do with them.”
Here’s some analysis from Time Magazine‘s Editorial Fellow Connor Greene. “Trump Is No Longer Denying Support for Project 2025: What to Know.”
President Donald Trump has changed his tune on the conservative policy plan Project 2025 after actively distancing himself from it for months during his reelection campaign.
Trump announced on Thursday that he would be meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, “he of PROJECT 2025 Fame,” to decide which “Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The post marks a significant shift from the President’s past disavowals of the unpopular right-wing policy blueprint, which was created by conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation ahead of the 2024 election. “I have nothing to do with Project 2025. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it,” Trump said in a debate last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s repeated insistence that he didn’t know anything about Project 2025, however, he had close ties with a number of its authors, several of whom have served in his Administrations—including Vought. And since he returned to the White House in January his second Administration has taken steps to implement a number of the proposals detailed in the over 900-page document.
Now, amid the government shutdown, Trump is moving to further fulfill Project 2025’s goals of reducing the federal workforce and extending his executive powers—and, it appears, openly embracing the plan.
The big question sis what does this mean for the shutdown and the country?
Despite his criticisms of Project 2025, many of the Trump Administration’s actions since he returned to office have mirrored aspects of the blueprint. An analysis by TIME in January found that nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions reflected—in whole or in part—proposals in Project 2025.
Among the parts of the plan that Trump has carried out is its recommendation to aggressively reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
Trump and hisDepartment of Government Efficiency moved quickly to cut more than 200,000 federal employees, though some of the layoffs have since been held up in the courts after being challenged by lawsuits. His Administration has also looked to slash federal funding through various freezes, clawbacks, cuts, and recissions.
Trump has announced plans to execute still more cuts amid the government shutdown. In the leadup to the deadline to fund the government this week, the White House directed agencies to prepare for mass firings in the event that Congress couldn’t reach a deal, rather than furloughing those not deemed essential as in past shutdowns.
The Administration has additionally used the shutdown to cancel $8 billion in green energy projects in Democratic-led states, withhold $18 billion in transportation projects in New York City, and pause $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Chicago.
Here’s a just a bit of the latest information on Russell Voight. This startling headline is from Politico. “Thune warns Democrats about Russ Vought: ‘We don’t control what he’s going to do’ The Senate majority leader spoke out as some Republicans express qualms about the White House slash-and-burn campaign.” The reporter for this piece is Jourdain Carney.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune isn’t endorsing the slash-and-burn campaign White House budget director Russ Vought has planned for the federal government during the pending shutdown.
But he says Democrats have no one to blame for it but themselves.
“This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said in an exclusive interview Wednesday in the Capitol, adding that “there should have been an expectation” among Democrats that Vought’s Office of Management and Budget could broadly target government workers and programs in a shutdown.
Thune spoke on the same day that several Republicans aired discomfort with Vought’s moves after the shutdown went into effect. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York spoke out against his decision to hold up major transportation projects in his state, while Reps. Blake Moore of Utah and Brian Babin of Texas spoke up on a private House GOP call with Vought raising qualms about potential mass layoffs.
Vought’s actions also risk being a distraction for Republicans, who have sought to stick to a simple message putting the onus on Democrats to reopen the government. Pressed on whether Vought was muddying the waters, Thune said, “The only thing I would say about that is yes, and we don’t control what he’s going to do.”
The White House has made no secret that its strategy is to inflict maximum political pressure on Democrats to try to get them to reopen the government. Vought warned ahead of the start of the shutdown that OMB would take aggressive steps beyond typical furloughs, where employees are brought back to work after the government reopens.
The budget office directed agencies in a memo first reported by POLITICO last week to put together plans for reductions-in-force — or firings — of federal employees. Vought himself told House Republicans during the Wednesday call that those firings would start in a “day or two.”
“I can’t control that,” Thune said about decisions made by OMB. “But the Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.”
This final suggested read is from Mother Jones. “Russ Vought Is Trump’s Shutdown Hero. His Neighbors Think His Work Is “Abhorrent.” The people living near Trump’s “grim reaper” of government cuts have put up signs letting him know they stand with federal workers.” This is reported by Isabela Dias.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump shared a music video on Truth Social. In it, an AI-generated Russ Vought—Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget and a Project 2025 mastermind—is the grim reaper, carrying a scythe along a hallway lined with portraits of Democratic leaders. Vought, the video’s soundtrack explains, “wields the pen, the funds, and the brain” to enforce the president’s plans to axe federal workers.
“Everyone still remembers when he said he wanted to cause maximum trauma to federal workers,” the neighbor said. “And that’s hard to forget.”
Most of Vought’s neighbors I talked to for this article declined to speak on the record or asked to remain anonymous. Some said they didn’t want to create a rift in an otherwise cordial neighborhood, while others worried about retribution or negative repercussions from their employers.
“I just wish he would have gotten to know us,” Hunter said. “We consider ourselves good Americans, we have good values. And I don’t think he’s been interested in getting to know any of us, in hearing if we might have a difference of opinion.”
Last week, Vought sent around a memo blaming Democrats’ “insane demands” for the imminent lapse in funding and instructing agency heads to start making plans to cut non-mandatory programs “not consistent with the President’s priorities” and “use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force.” Appearing on Fox Business, Vought claimed an “authority to make permanent change to the bureaucracy here in government” during the shutdown.
He has since announced pauses to funding for infrastructure projects in New York—home state of House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who called Vought a “malignant political hack”—and slowdowns in clean energy projects in several blue states.
Vought, Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said on Fox News, “has been dreaming about and preparing for his moment since puberty.”
AsIwrote in a profile of Vought from 2024, the bespectacled official spent years as a Washington insider and government bureaucrat before becoming the architect of a supersized second Trump presidency.
An avowed Christian nationalist and dedicated America First warrior, he once described the job of OMB director as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent” and criticized the federal bureaucracy for standing in the way of the president’s agenda. During Trump’s first term, Vought tried to implement an executive order that would have made it easier for political appointees to fire career civil servants and replace them with MAGA loyalists. Now, he’s getting to realize his vision while earning points with the president.
See what’s in the cards for us? Read them and weep. The Voight cartoons are from The Nation. They have a primar on Vought that you really should read. “Project 2025: Vought’s Your Problem? Not too bad to be true.” Steve Brodner is the artist and his cartoons have descriptions of their design. Go see the rest!
I’ve been a little late today, I’m sorry. I woke up late last night in a lot of pain and took some acetaminophen for relief. In my mind I was seeing it as some sort of ritual to defang Trump’s war on Health Care. I also got a call from youngest with my first grandson. Aiden, like his mémé is quite verbal. I really worked on this piece because I wanted to get as many sources as I could on this abomination and put my time in it than usual. I was researching stuff like the researcher I am. I am vorasciously reading up on this and I suggest you do too.
What’s on your Reading, Action, and Blogging list today?

#Repeat1968 #DestructionOfFederalAgencies #governmentShutdown2025m #JohnBuss #LousianaSCancerAlley #PeoplePower #Project25 #RussVought #StevenBrodner
#repeat1968 #destructionoffederalagencies #governmentshutdown2025m #johnbuss #lousianascanceralley #peoplepower
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-10-03 · 21:46 UTC
Finally Friday Reads: Project 2025 Plan to Destroy America is Offical

“I’m pretty sure all the Military Brass are impressed that the Secretary of War had his own personal makeup room built in the Pentagon. John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!
Most of us knew that Project 2025 would be the basis of policy. Republicans have wanted an Imperial Presidency for some time. Republicans have elected at least 3 useful idiots as President with the goal of destroying American democracy in mind. It’s why we have a huge deficit, and spending has been concentrated on the rich who can pay-to-play to get massive tax cuts and huge government subsidies.
There are examples in every state they control. Here in Louisiana, the damage from oil extraction and affiliated chemical industries has created massive damage, and just at the precise time that the EPA has been fully filleted. Not only has nothing real been done to abate the chemical spill that happened earlier this summer after a poorly managed plant that exploded in Roseland, a primarily black community, but it has not been fully abated. The actions behind the removal of LSU’s premier Lake Maurapas researcher have become clearer. Today, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released this important research. “Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ Is More Deadly Than Previously Imagined. New research shows that the industrial pollution—and the risk to human health—on Louisiana’s Cancer Alley have been significantly underestimated.
On an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, communities exist alongside some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants. Since the 1980s, the area has been known as Cancer Alley.
These plants process about 25% of the U.S.’s petrochemical products, Peter DeCarlo, PhD, associate professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, said in the July 2 episode of Public Health On Call—with many of the byproducts and emissions winding up in nearby communities’ air, water, and soil.
Residents of these communities suffer the effects of extreme air pollution, including increased rates and risks of maternal, reproductive, and newborn health harms; respiratory illnesses; and cancer. One area has the highest risk of cancer from industrial air pollution in the U.S.—more than seven times the national average.
But new research from DeCarlo, Keeve Nachman, PhD ’06, MHS ’01, professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, and their teams shows that the pollution—and the risk to human health—has been significantly underestimated.
In this Q&A, adapted from that podcast episode, DeCarlo and Nachman discuss their work measuring levels of pollutants in Louisiana and explain what these conclusions mean for how the U.S. should regulate carcinogens.
We may be drowning in toxic chemicals, but other states and cities are experiencing ICE Raids that resemble SS maneuvers. Additionally, we have new threats. Since the reality on the ground has embarrassed the Trump plan to send the military to “wartorn” Portland to defuse his imagined war on the ground, he’s come up with an alternative plan. This is from ABC News. “Leavitt says Trump exploring cutting aid to Portland.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is exploring plans to cut federal funding to Portland due to what she said was a rise in “Antifa” related incidents.”
“We will not fund states that allow anarchy,” she told reporters.
Antifa is not a group, but rather a political philosophy or movement. The term comes from the longer “anti-fascist” and is used as a catchall for groups that oppose the concept of authoritarianism, neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
If you want to sum it up, try this hypothesis for size. Republicans are willing to let all of us starve and die as long as they can get paid for enabling modern-day Robber Barons.
About six months into this reign of terror, murder, and destruction, I’m still not certain the legacy media is getting the bigger picture. However, yesterday, an announcement by Trump made them perk their ears once more. Will it be enough? This is from the AP. “Trump no longer distancing himself from Project 2025 as he uses the shutdown to further pursue its goals.”
President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.
In a post on his Truth Social site Thursday morning, Trump announced he would be meeting with his budget chief, “Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The comments represented a dramatic about-face for Trump, who spent much of last year denouncing Project 2025, The Heritage Foundation’s massive proposed overhaul of the federal government, which was drafted by many of his longtime allies and current and former administration officials.
You may recall that the implication of this document was central to the Democratic Party campaign. Kamala Harris made it a focal point of the convention and other speeches.
Top Trump campaign leaders spent much of 2024 livid at The Heritage Foundation for publishing a book full of unpopular proposals that Democrats tried to pin on the campaign to warn a second Trump term would be too extreme.
While many of the policies outlined in its 900-plus pages aligned closely with the agenda that Trump was proposing — particularly on curbing immigration and dismantling certain federal agencies — others called for action Trump had never discussed, like banning pornography, or Trump’s team was actively trying to avoid, like withdrawing approval for abortion medication.
Trump repeatedly insisted he knew nothing about the group or who was behind it, despite his close ties with many of its authors. They included John McEntee, his former director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, and Paul Dans, former chief of staff at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump’s campaign chiefs were equally critical.
“President Trump’s campaign has been very clear for over a year that Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign, did not speak for the campaign, and should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” wrote Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita in a campaign memo. They added, “Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign — it will not end well for you.”
Trump has since gone on to stock his second administration with its authors, including Vought, “border czar” Tom Homan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr, who wrote Project 2025’s chapter on the Federal Communications Commission and now chairs the panel.
Heritage did not respond to a request for comment Thursday. But Dans, the project’s former director, said it’s been “exciting” to see so much of what was laid out in the book put into action.
“It’s gratifying. We’re very proud of the work that was done for this express purpose: to have a doer like President Trump ready to roll on Day One,” said Dans, who is currently running for Senate against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
It was frequently averred that Stephen Miller was central to all plans for the project’s implementation. Only a few public intellectuals continued to warn of the plan and steps taken, while Yam Tit still shrugged off any implication that he was following the plan’s blueprint during the first six months. Well, that curtain has dropped.
AXIOS sums this evolution up neatly. “Trump charts path to total control amid government shutdown.’ This is reported by Zachary Basu.
President Trump is seizing on the government shutdown as an “unprecedented opportunity” to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power.
Why it matters: Many Democrats see the shutdown as a necessary evil to halt — or at least slow — Trump’s steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. So far, the standoff is only emboldening the White House.

Zoom in: Trump said he met Thursday with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what “Democrat agencies” should get cuts, casting the shutdown as a chance to shrink a federal workforce Trump has long viewed as hostile.
- Goading Democrats, Trump flaunted Vought’s role in Project 2025 (“he of PROJECT 2025 Fame”) — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed on the campaign trail after it became a political liability.
- For Vought, the shutdown offers a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency.
Already, Vought has announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators.
- He also has frozen $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a thinly veiled shot at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Legal challenges are inevitable: Congress controls the power of the purse, and federal officials privately have warned that Vought’s plans for mass firings during the shutdown may violate appropriations law.
The big picture: As Axios has documented, the shutdown is only one front in Trump’s broader campaign of consolidation.
- Military: In an unprecedented partisan address this week, Trump told more than 800 generals and admirals to prepare for a “war” against domestic “enemies,” urging them to treat America’s cities as “training grounds.”
- Academia: The administration is asking universities to sign a 10-point “compact” that would grant preferential access to federal funding if schools agree to freeze tuition, protect conservative speech, apply strict definitions of gender, limit international students and other Trump priorities.
- Rule of law: Days after Trump publicly pressured Attorney General Pam Bondi to charge his political enemies, the Justice Department indicted former FBI director James Comey. Other Trump foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), are under investigation.
- Civil society: FBI director Kash Patel severed ties with the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, accusing the Jewish civil rights group of “functioning like a terrorist organization” after MAGA activists discovered that Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was listed in its now-removed “Glossary of Extremism and Hate.” Trump also has urged the Justice Department to investigate Democratic megadonor George Soros’ Open Society Foundations as part of a crackdown on liberal groups following Kirk’s assassination.
- Corporate America: Trump demanded last week that Microsoft fire its head of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she served in the Biden administration — a reminder that even corporate giants aren’t immune from political retaliation. Trump had previously called on Intel’s CEO to resign over alleged ties to China, but backed off after the U.S. government took a 10% equity stake in the chip-maker.
More at the link.
MSNBC’s Maddow Blog has this analysis. As usual, Steve Benen has the led. “Trump picks a convenient time to change his tune about the Project 2025 agenda. Remember last year when Trump feigned ignorance about the right-wing governing blueprint? A year later, the president no longer bothers with the pretense.”
As the second full day of the latest government shutdown got underway, Donald Trump published an odd message to his social media platform, which raised plenty of eyebrows throughout the political world.
“I have a meeting today with [White House Budget Director] Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat [sic] Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent,” the president wrote.
We don’t yet know what transpired at that meeting, but Trump’s weird phrasing was itself notable. For example, there are no federal departments or offices that should be called “Democrat Agencies.” There are only American agencies, which do work on behalf of the American people and which are currently led, at least in part, by Trump’s own appointees.
Similarly, the idea that federal agencies deserve to be condemned as “a political SCAM” is every bit as bizarre as it sounds. We’re talking about offices, some of which have been around for many years, that were created by Congress. Their existence is reinforced in federal law, which the president is required to enforce.
As for the possibility that Trump and the far-right head of his Office of Management and Budget might “permanently” weaken departments that the White House no longer likes, it’s worth keeping in mind that such efforts might very well be illegal.
But let’s also not brush past that other phrase: Vought, the president wrote, is “of PROJECT 2025 Fame.” As The Associated Press summarized:

President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.

For those who might benefit from a refresher, throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump realized that the Project 2025 agenda was so radical and unpopular that he treated is as radioactive. “I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it,” the Republican said over the summer about the blueprint largely written by members of his own team. He added, “I have nothing to do with them.”
Here’s some analysis from Time Magazine‘s Editorial Fellow Connor Greene. “Trump Is No Longer Denying Support for Project 2025: What to Know.”
President Donald Trump has changed his tune on the conservative policy plan Project 2025 after actively distancing himself from it for months during his reelection campaign.
Trump announced on Thursday that he would be meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, “he of PROJECT 2025 Fame,” to decide which “Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The post marks a significant shift from the President’s past disavowals of the unpopular right-wing policy blueprint, which was created by conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation ahead of the 2024 election. “I have nothing to do with Project 2025. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it,” Trump said in a debate last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s repeated insistence that he didn’t know anything about Project 2025, however, he had close ties with a number of its authors, several of whom have served in his Administrations—including Vought. And since he returned to the White House in January his second Administration has taken steps to implement a number of the proposals detailed in the over 900-page document.
Now, amid the government shutdown, Trump is moving to further fulfill Project 2025’s goals of reducing the federal workforce and extending his executive powers—and, it appears, openly embracing the plan.
The big question sis what does this mean for the shutdown and the country?
Despite his criticisms of Project 2025, many of the Trump Administration’s actions since he returned to office have mirrored aspects of the blueprint. An analysis by TIME in January found that nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions reflected—in whole or in part—proposals in Project 2025.
Among the parts of the plan that Trump has carried out is its recommendation to aggressively reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
Trump and hisDepartment of Government Efficiency moved quickly to cut more than 200,000 federal employees, though some of the layoffs have since been held up in the courts after being challenged by lawsuits. His Administration has also looked to slash federal funding through various freezes, clawbacks, cuts, and recissions.
Trump has announced plans to execute still more cuts amid the government shutdown. In the leadup to the deadline to fund the government this week, the White House directed agencies to prepare for mass firings in the event that Congress couldn’t reach a deal, rather than furloughing those not deemed essential as in past shutdowns.
The Administration has additionally used the shutdown to cancel $8 billion in green energy projects in Democratic-led states, withhold $18 billion in transportation projects in New York City, and pause $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Chicago.
Here’s a just a bit of the latest information on Russell Voight. This startling headline is from Politico. “Thune warns Democrats about Russ Vought: ‘We don’t control what he’s going to do’ The Senate majority leader spoke out as some Republicans express qualms about the White House slash-and-burn campaign.” The reporter for this piece is Jourdain Carney.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune isn’t endorsing the slash-and-burn campaign White House budget director Russ Vought has planned for the federal government during the pending shutdown.
But he says Democrats have no one to blame for it but themselves.
“This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said in an exclusive interview Wednesday in the Capitol, adding that “there should have been an expectation” among Democrats that Vought’s Office of Management and Budget could broadly target government workers and programs in a shutdown.
Thune spoke on the same day that several Republicans aired discomfort with Vought’s moves after the shutdown went into effect. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York spoke out against his decision to hold up major transportation projects in his state, while Reps. Blake Moore of Utah and Brian Babin of Texas spoke up on a private House GOP call with Vought raising qualms about potential mass layoffs.
Vought’s actions also risk being a distraction for Republicans, who have sought to stick to a simple message putting the onus on Democrats to reopen the government. Pressed on whether Vought was muddying the waters, Thune said, “The only thing I would say about that is yes, and we don’t control what he’s going to do.”
The White House has made no secret that its strategy is to inflict maximum political pressure on Democrats to try to get them to reopen the government. Vought warned ahead of the start of the shutdown that OMB would take aggressive steps beyond typical furloughs, where employees are brought back to work after the government reopens.
The budget office directed agencies in a memo first reported by POLITICO last week to put together plans for reductions-in-force — or firings — of federal employees. Vought himself told House Republicans during the Wednesday call that those firings would start in a “day or two.”
“I can’t control that,” Thune said about decisions made by OMB. “But the Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.”
This final suggested read is from Mother Jones. “Russ Vought Is Trump’s Shutdown Hero. His Neighbors Think His Work Is “Abhorrent.” The people living near Trump’s “grim reaper” of government cuts have put up signs letting him know they stand with federal workers.” This is reported by Isabela Dias.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump shared a music video on Truth Social. In it, an AI-generated Russ Vought—Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget and a Project 2025 mastermind—is the grim reaper, carrying a scythe along a hallway lined with portraits of Democratic leaders. Vought, the video’s soundtrack explains, “wields the pen, the funds, and the brain” to enforce the president’s plans to axe federal workers.
“Everyone still remembers when he said he wanted to cause maximum trauma to federal workers,” the neighbor said. “And that’s hard to forget.”
Most of Vought’s neighbors I talked to for this article declined to speak on the record or asked to remain anonymous. Some said they didn’t want to create a rift in an otherwise cordial neighborhood, while others worried about retribution or negative repercussions from their employers.
“I just wish he would have gotten to know us,” Hunter said. “We consider ourselves good Americans, we have good values. And I don’t think he’s been interested in getting to know any of us, in hearing if we might have a difference of opinion.”
Last week, Vought sent around a memo blaming Democrats’ “insane demands” for the imminent lapse in funding and instructing agency heads to start making plans to cut non-mandatory programs “not consistent with the President’s priorities” and “use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force.” Appearing on Fox Business, Vought claimed an “authority to make permanent change to the bureaucracy here in government” during the shutdown.
He has since announced pauses to funding for infrastructure projects in New York—home state of House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who called Vought a “malignant political hack”—and slowdowns in clean energy projects in several blue states.
Vought, Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said on Fox News, “has been dreaming about and preparing for his moment since puberty.”
AsIwrote in a profile of Vought from 2024, the bespectacled official spent years as a Washington insider and government bureaucrat before becoming the architect of a supersized second Trump presidency.
An avowed Christian nationalist and dedicated America First warrior, he once described the job of OMB director as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent” and criticized the federal bureaucracy for standing in the way of the president’s agenda. During Trump’s first term, Vought tried to implement an executive order that would have made it easier for political appointees to fire career civil servants and replace them with MAGA loyalists. Now, he’s getting to realize his vision while earning points with the president.
See what’s in the cards for us? Read them and weep. The Voight cartoons are from The Nation. They have a primar on Vought that you really should read. “Project 2025: Vought’s Your Problem? Not too bad to be true.” Steve Brodner is the artist and his cartoons have descriptions of their design. Go see the rest!
I’ve been a little late today, I’m sorry. I woke up late last night in a lot of pain and took some acetaminophen for relief. In my mind I was seeing it as some sort of ritual to defang Trump’s war on Health Care. I also got a call from youngest with my first grandson. Aiden, like his mémé is quite verbal. I really worked on this piece because I wanted to get as many sources as I could on this abomination and put my time in it than usual. I was researching stuff like the researcher I am. I am vorasciously reading up on this and I suggest you do too.
What’s on your Reading, Action, and Blogging list today?
#Repeat1968 #DestructionOfFederalAgencies #governmentShutdown2025m #JohnBuss #LousianaSCancerAlley #PeoplePower #Project25 #RussVought #StevenBrodner
#stevenbrodner #russvought #project25 #peoplepower #lousianascanceralley #johnbuss
Sky Dancing @[email protected] · 2025-10-03 · 21:46 UTC
Finally Friday Reads: Project 2025 Plan to Destroy America is Offical

“I’m pretty sure all the Military Brass are impressed that the Secretary of War had his own personal makeup room built in the Pentagon. John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!
Most of us knew that Project 2025 would be the basis of policy. Republicans have wanted an Imperial Presidency for some time. Republicans have elected at least 3 useful idiots as President with the goal of destroying American democracy in mind. It’s why we have a huge deficit, and spending has been concentrated on the rich who can pay-to-play to get massive tax cuts and huge government subsidies.
There are examples in every state they control. Here in Louisiana, the damage from oil extraction and affiliated chemical industries has created massive damage, and just at the precise time that the EPA has been fully filleted. Not only has nothing real been done to abate the chemical spill that happened earlier this summer after a poorly managed plant that exploded in Roseland, a primarily black community, but it has not been fully abated. The actions behind the removal of LSU’s premier Lake Maurapas researcher have become clearer. Today, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released this important research. “Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ Is More Deadly Than Previously Imagined. New research shows that the industrial pollution—and the risk to human health—on Louisiana’s Cancer Alley have been significantly underestimated.
On an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, communities exist alongside some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants. Since the 1980s, the area has been known as Cancer Alley.
These plants process about 25% of the U.S.’s petrochemical products, Peter DeCarlo, PhD, associate professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, said in the July 2 episode of Public Health On Call—with many of the byproducts and emissions winding up in nearby communities’ air, water, and soil.
Residents of these communities suffer the effects of extreme air pollution, including increased rates and risks of maternal, reproductive, and newborn health harms; respiratory illnesses; and cancer. One area has the highest risk of cancer from industrial air pollution in the U.S.—more than seven times the national average.
But new research from DeCarlo, Keeve Nachman, PhD ’06, MHS ’01, professor in Environmental Health and Engineering, and their teams shows that the pollution—and the risk to human health—has been significantly underestimated.
In this Q&A, adapted from that podcast episode, DeCarlo and Nachman discuss their work measuring levels of pollutants in Louisiana and explain what these conclusions mean for how the U.S. should regulate carcinogens.
We may be drowning in toxic chemicals, but other states and cities are experiencing ICE Raids that resemble SS maneuvers. Additionally, we have new threats. Since the reality on the ground has embarrassed the Trump plan to send the military to “wartorn” Portland to defuse his imagined war on the ground, he’s come up with an alternative plan. This is from ABC News. “Leavitt says Trump exploring cutting aid to Portland.”White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is exploring plans to cut federal funding to Portland due to what she said was a rise in “Antifa” related incidents.”
“We will not fund states that allow anarchy,” she told reporters.
Antifa is not a group, but rather a political philosophy or movement. The term comes from the longer “anti-fascist” and is used as a catchall for groups that oppose the concept of authoritarianism, neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
If you want to sum it up, try this hypothesis for size. Republicans are willing to let all of us starve and die as long as they can get paid for enabling modern-day Robber Barons.
About six months into this reign of terror, murder, and destruction, I’m still not certain the legacy media is getting the bigger picture. However, yesterday, an announcement by Trump made them perk their ears once more. Will it be enough? This is from the AP. “Trump no longer distancing himself from Project 2025 as he uses the shutdown to further pursue its goals.”
President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.
In a post on his Truth Social site Thursday morning, Trump announced he would be meeting with his budget chief, “Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The comments represented a dramatic about-face for Trump, who spent much of last year denouncing Project 2025, The Heritage Foundation’s massive proposed overhaul of the federal government, which was drafted by many of his longtime allies and current and former administration officials.
You may recall that the implication of this document was central to the Democratic Party campaign. Kamala Harris made it a focal point of the convention and other speeches.
Top Trump campaign leaders spent much of 2024 livid at The Heritage Foundation for publishing a book full of unpopular proposals that Democrats tried to pin on the campaign to warn a second Trump term would be too extreme.
While many of the policies outlined in its 900-plus pages aligned closely with the agenda that Trump was proposing — particularly on curbing immigration and dismantling certain federal agencies — others called for action Trump had never discussed, like banning pornography, or Trump’s team was actively trying to avoid, like withdrawing approval for abortion medication.
Trump repeatedly insisted he knew nothing about the group or who was behind it, despite his close ties with many of its authors. They included John McEntee, his former director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, and Paul Dans, former chief of staff at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
“I know nothing about Project 2025,” Trump insisted in July 2024. “I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.”
Trump’s campaign chiefs were equally critical.
“President Trump’s campaign has been very clear for over a year that Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign, did not speak for the campaign, and should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” wrote Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita in a campaign memo. They added, “Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign — it will not end well for you.”
Trump has since gone on to stock his second administration with its authors, including Vought, “border czar” Tom Homan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr, who wrote Project 2025’s chapter on the Federal Communications Commission and now chairs the panel.
Heritage did not respond to a request for comment Thursday. But Dans, the project’s former director, said it’s been “exciting” to see so much of what was laid out in the book put into action.
“It’s gratifying. We’re very proud of the work that was done for this express purpose: to have a doer like President Trump ready to roll on Day One,” said Dans, who is currently running for Senate against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
It was frequently averred that Stephen Miller was central to all plans for the project’s implementation. Only a few public intellectuals continued to warn of the plan and steps taken, while Yam Tit still shrugged off any implication that he was following the plan’s blueprint during the first six months. Well, that curtain has dropped.
AXIOS sums this evolution up neatly. “Trump charts path to total control amid government shutdown.’ This is reported by Zachary Basu.
President Trump is seizing on the government shutdown as an “unprecedented opportunity” to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power.
Why it matters: Many Democrats see the shutdown as a necessary evil to halt — or at least slow — Trump’s steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. So far, the standoff is only emboldening the White House.

Zoom in: Trump said he met Thursday with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what “Democrat agencies” should get cuts, casting the shutdown as a chance to shrink a federal workforce Trump has long viewed as hostile.
- Goading Democrats, Trump flaunted Vought’s role in Project 2025 (“he of PROJECT 2025 Fame”) — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed on the campaign trail after it became a political liability.
- For Vought, the shutdown offers a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency.
Already, Vought has announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators.
- He also has frozen $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a thinly veiled shot at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
- Legal challenges are inevitable: Congress controls the power of the purse, and federal officials privately have warned that Vought’s plans for mass firings during the shutdown may violate appropriations law.
The big picture: As Axios has documented, the shutdown is only one front in Trump’s broader campaign of consolidation.
- Military: In an unprecedented partisan address this week, Trump told more than 800 generals and admirals to prepare for a “war” against domestic “enemies,” urging them to treat America’s cities as “training grounds.”
- Academia: The administration is asking universities to sign a 10-point “compact” that would grant preferential access to federal funding if schools agree to freeze tuition, protect conservative speech, apply strict definitions of gender, limit international students and other Trump priorities.
- Rule of law: Days after Trump publicly pressured Attorney General Pam Bondi to charge his political enemies, the Justice Department indicted former FBI director James Comey. Other Trump foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), are under investigation.
- Civil society: FBI director Kash Patel severed ties with the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, accusing the Jewish civil rights group of “functioning like a terrorist organization” after MAGA activists discovered that Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was listed in its now-removed “Glossary of Extremism and Hate.” Trump also has urged the Justice Department to investigate Democratic megadonor George Soros’ Open Society Foundations as part of a crackdown on liberal groups following Kirk’s assassination.
- Corporate America: Trump demanded last week that Microsoft fire its head of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she served in the Biden administration — a reminder that even corporate giants aren’t immune from political retaliation. Trump had previously called on Intel’s CEO to resign over alleged ties to China, but backed off after the U.S. government took a 10% equity stake in the chip-maker.
More at the link.
MSNBC’s Maddow Blog has this analysis. As usual, Steve Benen has the led. “Trump picks a convenient time to change his tune about the Project 2025 agenda. Remember last year when Trump feigned ignorance about the right-wing governing blueprint? A year later, the president no longer bothers with the pretense.”
As the second full day of the latest government shutdown got underway, Donald Trump published an odd message to his social media platform, which raised plenty of eyebrows throughout the political world.
“I have a meeting today with [White House Budget Director] Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat [sic] Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent,” the president wrote.
We don’t yet know what transpired at that meeting, but Trump’s weird phrasing was itself notable. For example, there are no federal departments or offices that should be called “Democrat Agencies.” There are only American agencies, which do work on behalf of the American people and which are currently led, at least in part, by Trump’s own appointees.
Similarly, the idea that federal agencies deserve to be condemned as “a political SCAM” is every bit as bizarre as it sounds. We’re talking about offices, some of which have been around for many years, that were created by Congress. Their existence is reinforced in federal law, which the president is required to enforce.
As for the possibility that Trump and the far-right head of his Office of Management and Budget might “permanently” weaken departments that the White House no longer likes, it’s worth keeping in mind that such efforts might very well be illegal.
But let’s also not brush past that other phrase: Vought, the president wrote, is “of PROJECT 2025 Fame.” As The Associated Press summarized:

President Donald Trump is openly embracing the conservative blueprint he desperately tried to distance himself from during the 2024 campaign, as one of its architects works to use the government shutdown to accelerate his goals of slashing the size of the federal workforce and punishing Democratic states.

For those who might benefit from a refresher, throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump realized that the Project 2025 agenda was so radical and unpopular that he treated is as radioactive. “I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it,” the Republican said over the summer about the blueprint largely written by members of his own team. He added, “I have nothing to do with them.”
Here’s some analysis from Time Magazine‘s Editorial Fellow Connor Greene. “Trump Is No Longer Denying Support for Project 2025: What to Know.”
President Donald Trump has changed his tune on the conservative policy plan Project 2025 after actively distancing himself from it for months during his reelection campaign.
Trump announced on Thursday that he would be meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, “he of PROJECT 2025 Fame,” to decide which “Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent.”
The post marks a significant shift from the President’s past disavowals of the unpopular right-wing policy blueprint, which was created by conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation ahead of the 2024 election. “I have nothing to do with Project 2025. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it,” Trump said in a debate last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s repeated insistence that he didn’t know anything about Project 2025, however, he had close ties with a number of its authors, several of whom have served in his Administrations—including Vought. And since he returned to the White House in January his second Administration has taken steps to implement a number of the proposals detailed in the over 900-page document.
Now, amid the government shutdown, Trump is moving to further fulfill Project 2025’s goals of reducing the federal workforce and extending his executive powers—and, it appears, openly embracing the plan.
The big question sis what does this mean for the shutdown and the country?
Despite his criticisms of Project 2025, many of the Trump Administration’s actions since he returned to office have mirrored aspects of the blueprint. An analysis by TIME in January found that nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions reflected—in whole or in part—proposals in Project 2025.
Among the parts of the plan that Trump has carried out is its recommendation to aggressively reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
Trump and hisDepartment of Government Efficiency moved quickly to cut more than 200,000 federal employees, though some of the layoffs have since been held up in the courts after being challenged by lawsuits. His Administration has also looked to slash federal funding through various freezes, clawbacks, cuts, and recissions.
Trump has announced plans to execute still more cuts amid the government shutdown. In the leadup to the deadline to fund the government this week, the White House directed agencies to prepare for mass firings in the event that Congress couldn’t reach a deal, rather than furloughing those not deemed essential as in past shutdowns.
The Administration has additionally used the shutdown to cancel $8 billion in green energy projects in Democratic-led states, withhold $18 billion in transportation projects in New York City, and pause $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Chicago.
Here’s a just a bit of the latest information on Russell Voight. This startling headline is from Politico. “Thune warns Democrats about Russ Vought: ‘We don’t control what he’s going to do’ The Senate majority leader spoke out as some Republicans express qualms about the White House slash-and-burn campaign.” The reporter for this piece is Jourdain Carney.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune isn’t endorsing the slash-and-burn campaign White House budget director Russ Vought has planned for the federal government during the pending shutdown.
But he says Democrats have no one to blame for it but themselves.
“This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said in an exclusive interview Wednesday in the Capitol, adding that “there should have been an expectation” among Democrats that Vought’s Office of Management and Budget could broadly target government workers and programs in a shutdown.
Thune spoke on the same day that several Republicans aired discomfort with Vought’s moves after the shutdown went into effect. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York spoke out against his decision to hold up major transportation projects in his state, while Reps. Blake Moore of Utah and Brian Babin of Texas spoke up on a private House GOP call with Vought raising qualms about potential mass layoffs.
Vought’s actions also risk being a distraction for Republicans, who have sought to stick to a simple message putting the onus on Democrats to reopen the government. Pressed on whether Vought was muddying the waters, Thune said, “The only thing I would say about that is yes, and we don’t control what he’s going to do.”
The White House has made no secret that its strategy is to inflict maximum political pressure on Democrats to try to get them to reopen the government. Vought warned ahead of the start of the shutdown that OMB would take aggressive steps beyond typical furloughs, where employees are brought back to work after the government reopens.
The budget office directed agencies in a memo first reported by POLITICO last week to put together plans for reductions-in-force — or firings — of federal employees. Vought himself told House Republicans during the Wednesday call that those firings would start in a “day or two.”
“I can’t control that,” Thune said about decisions made by OMB. “But the Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.”
This final suggested read is from Mother Jones. “Russ Vought Is Trump’s Shutdown Hero. His Neighbors Think His Work Is “Abhorrent.” The people living near Trump’s “grim reaper” of government cuts have put up signs letting him know they stand with federal workers.” This is reported by Isabela Dias.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump shared a music video on Truth Social. In it, an AI-generated Russ Vought—Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget and a Project 2025 mastermind—is the grim reaper, carrying a scythe along a hallway lined with portraits of Democratic leaders. Vought, the video’s soundtrack explains, “wields the pen, the funds, and the brain” to enforce the president’s plans to axe federal workers.
“Everyone still remembers when he said he wanted to cause maximum trauma to federal workers,” the neighbor said. “And that’s hard to forget.”
Most of Vought’s neighbors I talked to for this article declined to speak on the record or asked to remain anonymous. Some said they didn’t want to create a rift in an otherwise cordial neighborhood, while others worried about retribution or negative repercussions from their employers.
“I just wish he would have gotten to know us,” Hunter said. “We consider ourselves good Americans, we have good values. And I don’t think he’s been interested in getting to know any of us, in hearing if we might have a difference of opinion.”
Last week, Vought sent around a memo blaming Democrats’ “insane demands” for the imminent lapse in funding and instructing agency heads to start making plans to cut non-mandatory programs “not consistent with the President’s priorities” and “use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force.” Appearing on Fox Business, Vought claimed an “authority to make permanent change to the bureaucracy here in government” during the shutdown.
He has since announced pauses to funding for infrastructure projects in New York—home state of House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who called Vought a “malignant political hack”—and slowdowns in clean energy projects in several blue states.
Vought, Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said on Fox News, “has been dreaming about and preparing for his moment since puberty.”
AsIwrote in a profile of Vought from 2024, the bespectacled official spent years as a Washington insider and government bureaucrat before becoming the architect of a supersized second Trump presidency.
An avowed Christian nationalist and dedicated America First warrior, he once described the job of OMB director as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent” and criticized the federal bureaucracy for standing in the way of the president’s agenda. During Trump’s first term, Vought tried to implement an executive order that would have made it easier for political appointees to fire career civil servants and replace them with MAGA loyalists. Now, he’s getting to realize his vision while earning points with the president.
See what’s in the cards for us? Read them and weep. The Voight cartoons are from The Nation. They have a primar on Vought that you really should read. “Project 2025: Vought’s Your Problem? Not too bad to be true.” Steve Brodner is the artist and his cartoons have descriptions of their design. Go see the rest!
I’ve been a little late today, I’m sorry. I woke up late last night in a lot of pain and took some acetaminophen for relief. In my mind I was seeing it as some sort of ritual to defang Trump’s war on Health Care. I also got a call from youngest with my first grandson. Aiden, like his mémé is quite verbal. I really worked on this piece because I wanted to get as many sources as I could on this abomination and put my time in it than usual. I was researching stuff like the researcher I am. I am vorasciously reading up on this and I suggest you do too.
What’s on your Reading, Action, and Blogging list today?

#Repeat1968 #DestructionOfFederalAgencies #governmentShutdown2025m #JohnBuss #LousianaSCancerAlley #PeoplePower #Project25 #RussVought #StevenBrodner
#repeat1968 #destructionoffederalagencies #governmentshutdown2025m #johnbuss #lousianascanceralley #peoplepower
47th Pennsylvania Volunteers @[email protected] · 2024-05-16 · 07:49 UTC
USS Laurel Hill, May 26, 1862 (Baldwin Lithograph, Collection of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Hyde Park, New York, 1936, U.S. Naval Heritage Command, public domain).

Barely out of sight of the city of Alexandria, in Rapides Parish Louisiana, when it ran into the enemy during its retreat south in mid-May 1864, the Union’s Army of the Gulf easily defeated the Confederate States Army troops it encountered and continued its trek toward the village of Marksville in Avoyelles Parish. Members of the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, which was positioned farther back in the Union column, were aware of, but not involved in, that short engagement. According to C Company Musician Henry D. Wharton:
After marching a few miles skirmishing commenced in front between the cavalry and the enemy in riflepits [sic] on the bank of the river, but they were easily driven away. When we came up we discovered their pits and places where there had been batteries planted. At this point the John Warren, an unarmed transport, on which were sick soldiers and women, was fired into and sunk, killing many and those that were not drowned taken prisoners. A tin-clad gunboat was destroyed at the same place, by which we lost a large mail. Many letters and directed envelopes were found on the bank – thrown there after the contents had been read by the unprincipled scoundrels. The inhumanity of Guerrilla bands in this department is beyond belief, and if one did not know the truth of it or saw some of their barbarities, he would write it down as the story of a ‘reliable gentleman’ or as told by an ‘intelligent contraband.’ Not satisfied with his murderous intent on unarmed transports he fires into the Hospital steamer Laurel Hill, with four hundred sick on board. This boat had the usual hospital signal floating fore and aft, yet, notwithstanding all this, and the customs of war, they fired on them, proving by this act that they are more hardened than the Indians on the frontier.
* Note: The USS Laurel Hill survived the attack and, in a few short weeks, became the final home for ailing 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, including Corporal William Schweitzer and Privates Amandus Bellis and Nicholas Hoffman (Company A) and Private John Witz (Company E).

Map of key 1864 Red River Campaign locations, showing the battle sites of Sabine Cross Roads, Pleasant Hill and Mansura in relation to the Union’s occupation sites at Alexandria, Grand Ecore, Morganza, and New Orleans (excerpt from Dickinson College/U.S. Library of Congress map, public domain; click to enlarge).

Resuming their trek south with the retreating Army of the Gulf, the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers engaged in yet another long march, trudging more than thirty miles as the month of May 1864 wore on. According to the expedition’s commanding officer, Union Major-General Nathaniel P. Banks:
The fleet passed below Alexandria on the 13th of May. The army on its march from Alexandria did not encounter the enemy in force until near the town of Mansura. He was driven through the town in the evening of the 14th of May, and at daybreak next morning our advance encountered his cavalry on the prairie east of the town.
According to Henry Wharton, “On Sunday, May 15, we left the river road and took a short route through the woods, saving considerable distance.”
The windings of Red river are so numerous that it resembles the tape-worm railroad wherewith the politicians frightened the dear people during the administration of Ritner and Stevens. – We stopped several hours in the woods to leave cavalry pass, when we moved forward and by four o’clock emerged into a large open plain where we formed in line of battle, expecting a regular engagement. The enemy, however, retired and we advanced ‘till dark, when the forces halted for the night, with orders to rest on their arms. – ‘Twas here that Banks rode through our regiment, amidst the cheers of the boys, and gave the pleasant news that Grant had defeated Lee.

“Sleeping on Their Arms” by Winslow Homer (Harper’s Weekly, May 21, 1864).

Positioned just outside of the town of Marksville, under orders to “rest on their arms” for the night, the 47th Pennsylvanians half-dozed with their rifles within a finger’s length—but without the benefit of tents for cover. It was the eve of the Battle of Mansura, which unfolded on May 16, 1864 as follows, according to Wharton:
Early next morning we marched through Marksville into a prairie nine miles long and six wide where every preparation was made for a fight. The whole of our force was formed in line, in support of artillery in front, who commenced operations on the enemy driving him gradually from the prairie into the woods. As the enemy retreated before the heavy fire of our artillery, the infantry advanced in line until they reached Mousoula [sic, Mansura], where they formed in column, taking the whole field in an attempt to flank the enemy, but their running qualities were so good that we were foiled. The maneuvring [sic, maneuvering] of the troops was handsomely done, and the movements was [sic, were] one of the finest things of the war. The fight of artillery was a steady one of five miles. The enemy merely stood that they might cover the retreat of their infantry and train under cover of their artillery.
Per Major-General Banks, the Confederate troops “fell back, with steady and sharp skirmishing across the prairie, to a belt of woods, which he occupied.”
The enemy’s position covered three roads diverging from Mansura to the Atchafalaya. He manifested a determination here to obstinately resist our passage. The engagement, which lasted several hours, was confined chiefly to the artillery until our troops got possession of the edge of the woods – first upon our left by General Emory; subsequently on our right by General Smith, when he was driven from the field, after a sharp and decisive fight, with considerable loss.
According to military historian Steven E. Clay, “As the Army of the Gulf marched from Alexandria to Simmesport, it followed the River Road. As it moved, Taylor’s cavalry harassed the column from all sides.”
Steele’s men resumed the pressure on A. J. Smith’s rearguard. Annoying Emory and the cavalry advanced guard was Major and Bagby’s commands. The troops also attempted to slow the Federal march by cutting trees and placing other obstacles in the way. Parson’s men skirmished with Gooding’s troopers on the right flank. None of the rebel cavalry’s efforts, however, appreciably slowed the Union column.
On 14 May, the army’s van arrived at Bayour Choctaw. Emory called the pontoon train forward, and within a short time, the pontonniers had the stream bridged and the army was crossing…. That evening the troops of the XIX Corps [including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers] bivouacked beside the wrecks of the John Warner, Signal, and Covington. Strewn upon the ground were the letters many of the men had mailed to their loved ones earlier and had been placed on the Warner bound for New Orleans. The rebel soldiers had opened the letters, read them for entertainment, and simply tossed them aside. The idea did not sit well with the Federals, but neither did the wanton destruction and plunder of civilian homes with the Confederates.
On 15 May the column slowly crossed the Bayou Choctaw Swamp and entered the Avoyelles … Prairie. There, Major’s cavalry, later along with Bagby’s troops, attacked the lead elements several times. The fighting became so hot at moments that Emory deployed his artillery to help drive the bothersome rebel troopers away…. By nightfall … the XIX Corps had reached Marksville with the rest of the army strung out behind.
Late on 15 May, Banks learned that Taylor had massed his forces six miles ahead at the town of Mansura, evidently with the intention of blocking further Federal movement on the road to Simmesport…. On learning of the concentration of rebel forces, Banks sent orders to Emory directing him to move no later than 0300 [3 a.m.] on 16 May and to attack the enemy at daybreak. Further, Smith advanced on Emory’s right to attack into Taylor’s left flank. The XIII Corps [13th Corps], now under Lawler since 9 May … was to remain in front of Marksville as the reserve. The trains [Union wagon trains] were held behind that town….
As ordered, the Army of the Gulf moved south before sunrise. As morning dawned, the Federal army began its deployment on the wide open plain of the Avoyelles Prairie. The US troops advanced with Emory’s XIX [including the 47th Pennsylvania] in the lead with Grover’s 1st Division on the Federal left near the Grand River and McMillan’s 2nd Division [including the 47th Pennsylvania] on the right. The XIX Corps was followed by A. J. Smith’s XVI Corps [16th Corps] in column; Mower’s division was followed by that of Kilby Smith. As the Federal brigades deployed on the field they could see the Confederate battle line in the distance. Virtually in the center of the battlefield was the tiny village of Mansura.
According to Clay, Confederate Major-General Richard Taylor (a plantation owner and son of former U.S. President Zachary Taylor) “had placed eight dismounted cavalry regiments from Major’s and Bagby’s commands to the east of the hamlet” of Mansura. “At least 19 cannon with the batteries interspersed among the brigades supported these troops.” Confederate Brigadier-General Camille Armand Jules Marie, the Prince de Polignac, a prince of France who fought with the Confederate Army during America’s Civil War and whom the 47th Pennsylvanian Volunteers had previously faced in combat during the Battle of Sabine Cross Roads near Mansfield, Louisiana, “posted his two small infantry brigades and two dismounted regiments of cavalry on the left, west of town, and thirteen more guns supported Polignac’s force.”

New York Tribune headline announcing the U.S. Army of the Gulf’s May 1864 victory near Marksville, Louisiana (New York Tribune, June 3, 1864, public domain).

Standing “on a flat, green savanna,” according to Clay, the troops under Brigadier-General Emory’s command, including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, were the first to march into the battle’s fray, followed by A. J. Smith’s “divisions to the right of the line.” It quickly became obvious to all who were watching the scene unfold that Taylor had woefully misjudged his opponents; his six thousand Confederates were greeted with the spectacle of the eighteen-thousand strong Army of the Gulf arrayed before them.
According to Clay, “The battle began sometime after 0600 [6 a.m.] with a mutual artillery bombardment.”
As the fusillade opened, commanders on both sides ordered their men to lie down in order to reduce casualties during the artillery duel. The tactic was effective. The barrage lasted about four hours, but few men were struck by the many rounds fired. As the Union battle line rose and moved forward on occasion, Taylor’s skirmish line responded by slowly giving ground…. Finally, at about 1000 (1 p.m.), as the XVI Corps pressed forward on the Confederate left to flank Taylor’s position as planned, the rebel line quickly sidestepped the move and fell back toward their trains which were located southwest in the village of Evergreen.
Unlike the sanguinary opening battles of the Red River Campaign, the Battle of Mansura was far less brutal. Per Wharton:
Our loss was slight. Of the rebels we could not ascertain correctly, but learned from citizens who had secreted themselves during the fight, that they had many killed and wounded, who threw them into wagons, promiscuously, and drove them off so that we could not learn their casualties.
Afterward, the victorious Army of the Gulf resumed its march south. According Major-General Banks:
The 16th of May we reached Simmsport [sic, Simmesport], on the Atchafalaya. Being entirely destitute of any ordinary bridge material for the passage of this river – about six hundred yards wide – a bridge was constructed of the steamers, under direction of Lieutenant Colonel Bailey. This work was not of the same magnitude, but was as important to the army as the dam at Alexandria was to the navy. It had the merit of being an entirely novel construction, no bridge of such magnitude having been constructed of similar materials. The bridge was completed at one o’clock on the 19th of May. The wagon train passed in the afternoon, and the troops the next morning, in better spirit and condition, as able and eager to meet the enemy as at any period of the campaign.
Union Major-General Nathaniel Banks subsequently reported that, during the Army of the Gulf’s final engagement with Confederates, the “command of General A. J. Smith, which covered the rear of the army during the construction of the bridge and the passage of the army, had a severe engagement with the enemy, under Polignac, on the afternoon of the 19th, at Yellow Bayou, which lasted several hours.”
Our loss was about one hundred and fifty in killed and wounded; that of the enemy much greater, besides many prisoners who were taken by our troops. Major General E. R. S. Canby arrived at Simmsport [sic, Simmesport] on the 19th of May, and the next day assumed command of the troops as a portion of the forces of the military division of the West Mississippi, to the command of which he had been assigned.
The 47th Pennsylvania, however, was not involved in that battle at Yellow Bayou; according to Wharton:
This fight was the last one of the expedition. The whole of the force is safe on the Mississippi, gunboats, transports and trains. The 16th and 17th have gone to their old commands.
It is amusing to read the statements of correspondents to papers North, concerning our movements and the losses of our army. I have it from the best source that the Federal loss from Franklin to Mansfield, and from their [sic] to this point does not exceed thirty-five hundred in killed, wounded and missing, while that of the rebels is over eight thousand.

Union Army base at Morganza Bend, Louisiana, circa 1863-1865 (U.S. Library of Congress, public domain).

After that final battle, the surviving members of the 47th made their way through Simmesport and into the Atchafalaya Basin, and then moved on to the village of Morganza, where they made camp again. According to Wharton, the members of Company C were sent on a special mission which took them on an intense journey of one hundred and twenty miles:
Company C, on last Saturday was detailed by the General in command of the Division to take one hundred and eighty-seven prisoners (rebs) to New Orleans. This they done [sic] satisfactorily and returned yesterday to their regiment, ready for duty. While in the City some of the boys made Captain Gobin quite a handsome present, to show their appreciation of him as an officer gentleman.
By May 28, 1864, the men from Company C had returned from New Orleans and were once again encamped at Morganza with the full 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, prompting Henry Wharton to write:
The boys are well. James Kennedy who was wounded at Pleasant Hill, died at New Orleans hospital a few days ago. His friends in the company were pleased to learn that Dr. Dodge of Sunbury, now of the U.S. Steamer Octorora, was with him in his last moments, and ministered to his wants. The Doctor was one of the Surgeons from the Navy who volunteered when our wounded was [sic, were] sent to New Orleans.
Their long trek through Louisiana was over, but their fight to preserve America’s Union was not.
Sources:
1. Banks, Nathaniel P. “Report of the Red River Campaign,” in “Annual Report of the Secretary of War,” in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington: Government Printing Office, 1866.
2. Bates, Samuel P. History of Pennsylvania Volunteers, 1861-5, vol. 1. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: B. Singerly, State Printer, 1869.
3. “Battle of Pleasant Hill, April 9, 1864, Walker’s Texas Division Campaign Map, Detail,” in “House Divided.” Carlisle, Pennsylvania: History Department, Dickinson College, November 21, 2009 (cropped from the original public domain map available on the website of the U.S. Library of Congress).
4. Clay, Steven E. The Staff Ride Handbook for the Red River Campaign, 7 March-19 May 1864. Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: Combat Studies Institute Press, U.S. Army Combined Arms Centers, 2023.
5. Prisoner of War Records, Camp Ford and Camp Groce (47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry). Tyler Texas: Smith County Historical Society, 2010.
6. “Report of Maj. Gen. Nathaniel P. Banks, U. S. Army, Commanding Expedition and Department of the Gulf” (to Edwin M. Stanton, Secretary of War), in Annual Report of the Secretary of War, in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1866.
7. Schmidt, Lewis G. A Civil War History of the 47th Regiment of Pennsylvania Veteran Volunteers. Allentown, Pennsylvania: Self-published, 1986.
8. “The History of the Forty-Seventh Regt. P. V.” Allentown, Pennsylvania: The Lehigh Register, July 20, 1870.
9. Wharton, Henry D. Letters from the Sunbury Guards, 1861-1868. Sunbury, Pennsylvania: Sunbury American.
https://47thpennsylvaniavolunteers.com/2024/05/16/the-march-from-marksville-to-morganza-louisiana-and-the-battle-of-mansura-mid-to-late-may-1864/
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47th Pennsylvania Volunteers @[email protected] · 2024-05-16 · 07:49 UTC
USS Laurel Hill, May 26, 1862 (Baldwin Lithograph, Collection of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Hyde Park, New York, 1936, U.S. Naval Heritage Command, public domain).

Barely out of sight of the city of Alexandria, in Rapides Parish Louisiana, when it ran into the enemy during its retreat south in mid-May 1864, the Union’s Army of the Gulf easily defeated the Confederate States Army troops it encountered and continued its trek toward the village of Marksville in Avoyelles Parish. Members of the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, which was positioned farther back in the Union column, were aware of, but not involved in, that short engagement. According to C Company Musician Henry D. Wharton:
After marching a few miles skirmishing commenced in front between the cavalry and the enemy in riflepits [sic] on the bank of the river, but they were easily driven away. When we came up we discovered their pits and places where there had been batteries planted. At this point the John Warren, an unarmed transport, on which were sick soldiers and women, was fired into and sunk, killing many and those that were not drowned taken prisoners. A tin-clad gunboat was destroyed at the same place, by which we lost a large mail. Many letters and directed envelopes were found on the bank – thrown there after the contents had been read by the unprincipled scoundrels. The inhumanity of Guerrilla bands in this department is beyond belief, and if one did not know the truth of it or saw some of their barbarities, he would write it down as the story of a ‘reliable gentleman’ or as told by an ‘intelligent contraband.’ Not satisfied with his murderous intent on unarmed transports he fires into the Hospital steamer Laurel Hill, with four hundred sick on board. This boat had the usual hospital signal floating fore and aft, yet, notwithstanding all this, and the customs of war, they fired on them, proving by this act that they are more hardened than the Indians on the frontier.
* Note: The USS Laurel Hill survived the attack and, in a few short weeks, became the final home for ailing 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, including Corporal William Schweitzer and Privates Amandus Bellis and Nicholas Hoffman (Company A) and Private John Witz (Company E).

Map of key 1864 Red River Campaign locations, showing the battle sites of Sabine Cross Roads, Pleasant Hill and Mansura in relation to the Union’s occupation sites at Alexandria, Grand Ecore, Morganza, and New Orleans (excerpt from Dickinson College/U.S. Library of Congress map, public domain; click to enlarge).

Resuming their trek south with the retreating Army of the Gulf, the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers engaged in yet another long march, trudging more than thirty miles as the month of May 1864 wore on. According to the expedition’s commanding officer, Union Major-General Nathaniel P. Banks:
The fleet passed below Alexandria on the 13th of May. The army on its march from Alexandria did not encounter the enemy in force until near the town of Mansura. He was driven through the town in the evening of the 14th of May, and at daybreak next morning our advance encountered his cavalry on the prairie east of the town.
According to Henry Wharton, “On Sunday, May 15, we left the river road and took a short route through the woods, saving considerable distance.”
The windings of Red river are so numerous that it resembles the tape-worm railroad wherewith the politicians frightened the dear people during the administration of Ritner and Stevens. – We stopped several hours in the woods to leave cavalry pass, when we moved forward and by four o’clock emerged into a large open plain where we formed in line of battle, expecting a regular engagement. The enemy, however, retired and we advanced ‘till dark, when the forces halted for the night, with orders to rest on their arms. – ‘Twas here that Banks rode through our regiment, amidst the cheers of the boys, and gave the pleasant news that Grant had defeated Lee.

“Sleeping on Their Arms” by Winslow Homer (Harper’s Weekly, May 21, 1864).

Positioned just outside of the town of Marksville, under orders to “rest on their arms” for the night, the 47th Pennsylvanians half-dozed with their rifles within a finger’s length—but without the benefit of tents for cover. It was the eve of the Battle of Mansura, which unfolded on May 16, 1864 as follows, according to Wharton:
Early next morning we marched through Marksville into a prairie nine miles long and six wide where every preparation was made for a fight. The whole of our force was formed in line, in support of artillery in front, who commenced operations on the enemy driving him gradually from the prairie into the woods. As the enemy retreated before the heavy fire of our artillery, the infantry advanced in line until they reached Mousoula [sic, Mansura], where they formed in column, taking the whole field in an attempt to flank the enemy, but their running qualities were so good that we were foiled. The maneuvring [sic, maneuvering] of the troops was handsomely done, and the movements was [sic, were] one of the finest things of the war. The fight of artillery was a steady one of five miles. The enemy merely stood that they might cover the retreat of their infantry and train under cover of their artillery.
Per Major-General Banks, the Confederate troops “fell back, with steady and sharp skirmishing across the prairie, to a belt of woods, which he occupied.”
The enemy’s position covered three roads diverging from Mansura to the Atchafalaya. He manifested a determination here to obstinately resist our passage. The engagement, which lasted several hours, was confined chiefly to the artillery until our troops got possession of the edge of the woods – first upon our left by General Emory; subsequently on our right by General Smith, when he was driven from the field, after a sharp and decisive fight, with considerable loss.
According to military historian Steven E. Clay, “As the Army of the Gulf marched from Alexandria to Simmesport, it followed the River Road. As it moved, Taylor’s cavalry harassed the column from all sides.”
Steele’s men resumed the pressure on A. J. Smith’s rearguard. Annoying Emory and the cavalry advanced guard was Major and Bagby’s commands. The troops also attempted to slow the Federal march by cutting trees and placing other obstacles in the way. Parson’s men skirmished with Gooding’s troopers on the right flank. None of the rebel cavalry’s efforts, however, appreciably slowed the Union column.
On 14 May, the army’s van arrived at Bayour Choctaw. Emory called the pontoon train forward, and within a short time, the pontonniers had the stream bridged and the army was crossing…. That evening the troops of the XIX Corps [including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers] bivouacked beside the wrecks of the John Warner, Signal, and Covington. Strewn upon the ground were the letters many of the men had mailed to their loved ones earlier and had been placed on the Warner bound for New Orleans. The rebel soldiers had opened the letters, read them for entertainment, and simply tossed them aside. The idea did not sit well with the Federals, but neither did the wanton destruction and plunder of civilian homes with the Confederates.
On 15 May the column slowly crossed the Bayou Choctaw Swamp and entered the Avoyelles … Prairie. There, Major’s cavalry, later along with Bagby’s troops, attacked the lead elements several times. The fighting became so hot at moments that Emory deployed his artillery to help drive the bothersome rebel troopers away…. By nightfall … the XIX Corps had reached Marksville with the rest of the army strung out behind.
Late on 15 May, Banks learned that Taylor had massed his forces six miles ahead at the town of Mansura, evidently with the intention of blocking further Federal movement on the road to Simmesport…. On learning of the concentration of rebel forces, Banks sent orders to Emory directing him to move no later than 0300 [3 a.m.] on 16 May and to attack the enemy at daybreak. Further, Smith advanced on Emory’s right to attack into Taylor’s left flank. The XIII Corps [13th Corps], now under Lawler since 9 May … was to remain in front of Marksville as the reserve. The trains [Union wagon trains] were held behind that town….
As ordered, the Army of the Gulf moved south before sunrise. As morning dawned, the Federal army began its deployment on the wide open plain of the Avoyelles Prairie. The US troops advanced with Emory’s XIX [including the 47th Pennsylvania] in the lead with Grover’s 1st Division on the Federal left near the Grand River and McMillan’s 2nd Division [including the 47th Pennsylvania] on the right. The XIX Corps was followed by A. J. Smith’s XVI Corps [16th Corps] in column; Mower’s division was followed by that of Kilby Smith. As the Federal brigades deployed on the field they could see the Confederate battle line in the distance. Virtually in the center of the battlefield was the tiny village of Mansura.
According to Clay, Confederate Major-General Richard Taylor (a plantation owner and son of former U.S. President Zachary Taylor) “had placed eight dismounted cavalry regiments from Major’s and Bagby’s commands to the east of the hamlet” of Mansura. “At least 19 cannon with the batteries interspersed among the brigades supported these troops.” Confederate Brigadier-General Camille Armand Jules Marie, the Prince de Polignac, a prince of France who fought with the Confederate Army during America’s Civil War and whom the 47th Pennsylvanian Volunteers had previously faced in combat during the Battle of Sabine Cross Roads near Mansfield, Louisiana, “posted his two small infantry brigades and two dismounted regiments of cavalry on the left, west of town, and thirteen more guns supported Polignac’s force.”

New York Tribune headline announcing the U.S. Army of the Gulf’s May 1864 victory near Marksville, Louisiana (New York Tribune, June 3, 1864, public domain).

Standing “on a flat, green savanna,” according to Clay, the troops under Brigadier-General Emory’s command, including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, were the first to march into the battle’s fray, followed by A. J. Smith’s “divisions to the right of the line.” It quickly became obvious to all who were watching the scene unfold that Taylor had woefully misjudged his opponents; his six thousand Confederates were greeted with the spectacle of the eighteen-thousand strong Army of the Gulf arrayed before them.
According to Clay, “The battle began sometime after 0600 [6 a.m.] with a mutual artillery bombardment.”
As the fusillade opened, commanders on both sides ordered their men to lie down in order to reduce casualties during the artillery duel. The tactic was effective. The barrage lasted about four hours, but few men were struck by the many rounds fired. As the Union battle line rose and moved forward on occasion, Taylor’s skirmish line responded by slowly giving ground…. Finally, at about 1000 (1 p.m.), as the XVI Corps pressed forward on the Confederate left to flank Taylor’s position as planned, the rebel line quickly sidestepped the move and fell back toward their trains which were located southwest in the village of Evergreen.
Unlike the sanguinary opening battles of the Red River Campaign, the Battle of Mansura was far less brutal. Per Wharton:
Our loss was slight. Of the rebels we could not ascertain correctly, but learned from citizens who had secreted themselves during the fight, that they had many killed and wounded, who threw them into wagons, promiscuously, and drove them off so that we could not learn their casualties.
Afterward, the victorious Army of the Gulf resumed its march south. According Major-General Banks:
The 16th of May we reached Simmsport [sic, Simmesport], on the Atchafalaya. Being entirely destitute of any ordinary bridge material for the passage of this river – about six hundred yards wide – a bridge was constructed of the steamers, under direction of Lieutenant Colonel Bailey. This work was not of the same magnitude, but was as important to the army as the dam at Alexandria was to the navy. It had the merit of being an entirely novel construction, no bridge of such magnitude having been constructed of similar materials. The bridge was completed at one o’clock on the 19th of May. The wagon train passed in the afternoon, and the troops the next morning, in better spirit and condition, as able and eager to meet the enemy as at any period of the campaign.
Union Major-General Nathaniel Banks subsequently reported that, during the Army of the Gulf’s final engagement with Confederates, the “command of General A. J. Smith, which covered the rear of the army during the construction of the bridge and the passage of the army, had a severe engagement with the enemy, under Polignac, on the afternoon of the 19th, at Yellow Bayou, which lasted several hours.”
Our loss was about one hundred and fifty in killed and wounded; that of the enemy much greater, besides many prisoners who were taken by our troops. Major General E. R. S. Canby arrived at Simmsport [sic, Simmesport] on the 19th of May, and the next day assumed command of the troops as a portion of the forces of the military division of the West Mississippi, to the command of which he had been assigned.
The 47th Pennsylvania, however, was not involved in that battle at Yellow Bayou; according to Wharton:
This fight was the last one of the expedition. The whole of the force is safe on the Mississippi, gunboats, transports and trains. The 16th and 17th have gone to their old commands.
It is amusing to read the statements of correspondents to papers North, concerning our movements and the losses of our army. I have it from the best source that the Federal loss from Franklin to Mansfield, and from their [sic] to this point does not exceed thirty-five hundred in killed, wounded and missing, while that of the rebels is over eight thousand.

Union Army base at Morganza Bend, Louisiana, circa 1863-1865 (U.S. Library of Congress, public domain).

After that final battle, the surviving members of the 47th made their way through Simmesport and into the Atchafalaya Basin, and then moved on to the village of Morganza, where they made camp again. According to Wharton, the members of Company C were sent on a special mission which took them on an intense journey of one hundred and twenty miles:
Company C, on last Saturday was detailed by the General in command of the Division to take one hundred and eighty-seven prisoners (rebs) to New Orleans. This they done [sic] satisfactorily and returned yesterday to their regiment, ready for duty. While in the City some of the boys made Captain Gobin quite a handsome present, to show their appreciation of him as an officer gentleman.
By May 28, 1864, the men from Company C had returned from New Orleans and were once again encamped at Morganza with the full 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, prompting Henry Wharton to write:
The boys are well. James Kennedy who was wounded at Pleasant Hill, died at New Orleans hospital a few days ago. His friends in the company were pleased to learn that Dr. Dodge of Sunbury, now of the U.S. Steamer Octorora, was with him in his last moments, and ministered to his wants. The Doctor was one of the Surgeons from the Navy who volunteered when our wounded was [sic, were] sent to New Orleans.
Their long trek through Louisiana was over, but their fight to preserve America’s Union was not.
Sources:
1. Banks, Nathaniel P. “Report of the Red River Campaign,” in “Annual Report of the Secretary of War,” in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington: Government Printing Office, 1866.
2. Bates, Samuel P. History of Pennsylvania Volunteers, 1861-5, vol. 1. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: B. Singerly, State Printer, 1869.
3. “Battle of Pleasant Hill, April 9, 1864, Walker’s Texas Division Campaign Map, Detail,” in “House Divided.” Carlisle, Pennsylvania: History Department, Dickinson College, November 21, 2009 (cropped from the original public domain map available on the website of the U.S. Library of Congress).
4. Clay, Steven E. The Staff Ride Handbook for the Red River Campaign, 7 March-19 May 1864. Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: Combat Studies Institute Press, U.S. Army Combined Arms Centers, 2023.
5. Prisoner of War Records, Camp Ford and Camp Groce (47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry). Tyler Texas: Smith County Historical Society, 2010.
6. “Report of Maj. Gen. Nathaniel P. Banks, U. S. Army, Commanding Expedition and Department of the Gulf” (to Edwin M. Stanton, Secretary of War), in Annual Report of the Secretary of War, in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1866.
7. Schmidt, Lewis G. A Civil War History of the 47th Regiment of Pennsylvania Veteran Volunteers. Allentown, Pennsylvania: Self-published, 1986.
8. “The History of the Forty-Seventh Regt. P. V.” Allentown, Pennsylvania: The Lehigh Register, July 20, 1870.
9. Wharton, Henry D. Letters from the Sunbury Guards, 1861-1868. Sunbury, Pennsylvania: Sunbury American.
https://47thpennsylvaniavolunteers.com/2024/05/16/the-march-from-marksville-to-morganza-louisiana-and-the-battle-of-mansura-mid-to-late-may-1864/
#003366 #1864 #47thPennsylvaniaInfantry #47thPennsylvaniaVolunteers #Alexandria #America #AmericanCivilWar #AmericanHistory #Army #ArmyOfTheGulf #Atchafalaya #AvoyellesParish #BattleOfMansura #CivilWar #CommonwealthOfPennsylvania #Emory #History #Infantry #LaurelHill #Louisiana #Mansura #Marksville #Morganza #NathanielPBanks #PennsylvaniaHistory #PennsylvaniaInTheCivilWar #RapidesParish #RedRiver #RedRiverCampaign #Simmesport #Slavery #TheUnionArmy #USMilitaryAndTheUnionArmy #USSLaurelHill #WilliamHEmory #XIXCorps
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47th Pennsylvania Volunteers @[email protected] · 2024-05-16 · 07:49 UTC
USS Laurel Hill, May 26, 1862 (Baldwin Lithograph, Collection of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Hyde Park, New York, 1936, U.S. Naval Heritage Command, public domain).

Barely out of sight of the city of Alexandria, in Rapides Parish Louisiana, when it ran into the enemy during its retreat south in mid-May 1864, the Union’s Army of the Gulf easily defeated the Confederate States Army troops it encountered and continued its trek toward the village of Marksville in Avoyelles Parish. Members of the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, which was positioned farther back in the Union column, were aware of, but not involved in, that short engagement. According to C Company Musician Henry D. Wharton:
After marching a few miles skirmishing commenced in front between the cavalry and the enemy in riflepits [sic] on the bank of the river, but they were easily driven away. When we came up we discovered their pits and places where there had been batteries planted. At this point the John Warren, an unarmed transport, on which were sick soldiers and women, was fired into and sunk, killing many and those that were not drowned taken prisoners. A tin-clad gunboat was destroyed at the same place, by which we lost a large mail. Many letters and directed envelopes were found on the bank – thrown there after the contents had been read by the unprincipled scoundrels. The inhumanity of Guerrilla bands in this department is beyond belief, and if one did not know the truth of it or saw some of their barbarities, he would write it down as the story of a ‘reliable gentleman’ or as told by an ‘intelligent contraband.’ Not satisfied with his murderous intent on unarmed transports he fires into the Hospital steamer Laurel Hill, with four hundred sick on board. This boat had the usual hospital signal floating fore and aft, yet, notwithstanding all this, and the customs of war, they fired on them, proving by this act that they are more hardened than the Indians on the frontier.
* Note: The USS Laurel Hill survived the attack and, in a few short weeks, became the final home for ailing 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, including Corporal William Schweitzer and Privates Amandus Bellis and Nicholas Hoffman (Company A) and Private John Witz (Company E).

Map of key 1864 Red River Campaign locations, showing the battle sites of Sabine Cross Roads, Pleasant Hill and Mansura in relation to the Union’s occupation sites at Alexandria, Grand Ecore, Morganza, and New Orleans (excerpt from Dickinson College/U.S. Library of Congress map, public domain; click to enlarge).

Resuming their trek south with the retreating Army of the Gulf, the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers engaged in yet another long march, trudging more than thirty miles as the month of May 1864 wore on. According to the expedition’s commanding officer, Union Major-General Nathaniel P. Banks:
The fleet passed below Alexandria on the 13th of May. The army on its march from Alexandria did not encounter the enemy in force until near the town of Mansura. He was driven through the town in the evening of the 14th of May, and at daybreak next morning our advance encountered his cavalry on the prairie east of the town.
According to Henry Wharton, “On Sunday, May 15, we left the river road and took a short route through the woods, saving considerable distance.”
The windings of Red river are so numerous that it resembles the tape-worm railroad wherewith the politicians frightened the dear people during the administration of Ritner and Stevens. – We stopped several hours in the woods to leave cavalry pass, when we moved forward and by four o’clock emerged into a large open plain where we formed in line of battle, expecting a regular engagement. The enemy, however, retired and we advanced ‘till dark, when the forces halted for the night, with orders to rest on their arms. – ‘Twas here that Banks rode through our regiment, amidst the cheers of the boys, and gave the pleasant news that Grant had defeated Lee.

“Sleeping on Their Arms” by Winslow Homer (Harper’s Weekly, May 21, 1864).

Positioned just outside of the town of Marksville, under orders to “rest on their arms” for the night, the 47th Pennsylvanians half-dozed with their rifles within a finger’s length—but without the benefit of tents for cover. It was the eve of the Battle of Mansura, which unfolded on May 16, 1864 as follows, according to Wharton:
Early next morning we marched through Marksville into a prairie nine miles long and six wide where every preparation was made for a fight. The whole of our force was formed in line, in support of artillery in front, who commenced operations on the enemy driving him gradually from the prairie into the woods. As the enemy retreated before the heavy fire of our artillery, the infantry advanced in line until they reached Mousoula [sic, Mansura], where they formed in column, taking the whole field in an attempt to flank the enemy, but their running qualities were so good that we were foiled. The maneuvring [sic, maneuvering] of the troops was handsomely done, and the movements was [sic, were] one of the finest things of the war. The fight of artillery was a steady one of five miles. The enemy merely stood that they might cover the retreat of their infantry and train under cover of their artillery.
Per Major-General Banks, the Confederate troops “fell back, with steady and sharp skirmishing across the prairie, to a belt of woods, which he occupied.”
The enemy’s position covered three roads diverging from Mansura to the Atchafalaya. He manifested a determination here to obstinately resist our passage. The engagement, which lasted several hours, was confined chiefly to the artillery until our troops got possession of the edge of the woods – first upon our left by General Emory; subsequently on our right by General Smith, when he was driven from the field, after a sharp and decisive fight, with considerable loss.
According to military historian Steven E. Clay, “As the Army of the Gulf marched from Alexandria to Simmesport, it followed the River Road. As it moved, Taylor’s cavalry harassed the column from all sides.”
Steele’s men resumed the pressure on A. J. Smith’s rearguard. Annoying Emory and the cavalry advanced guard was Major and Bagby’s commands. The troops also attempted to slow the Federal march by cutting trees and placing other obstacles in the way. Parson’s men skirmished with Gooding’s troopers on the right flank. None of the rebel cavalry’s efforts, however, appreciably slowed the Union column.
On 14 May, the army’s van arrived at Bayour Choctaw. Emory called the pontoon train forward, and within a short time, the pontonniers had the stream bridged and the army was crossing…. That evening the troops of the XIX Corps [including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers] bivouacked beside the wrecks of the John Warner, Signal, and Covington. Strewn upon the ground were the letters many of the men had mailed to their loved ones earlier and had been placed on the Warner bound for New Orleans. The rebel soldiers had opened the letters, read them for entertainment, and simply tossed them aside. The idea did not sit well with the Federals, but neither did the wanton destruction and plunder of civilian homes with the Confederates.
On 15 May the column slowly crossed the Bayou Choctaw Swamp and entered the Avoyelles … Prairie. There, Major’s cavalry, later along with Bagby’s troops, attacked the lead elements several times. The fighting became so hot at moments that Emory deployed his artillery to help drive the bothersome rebel troopers away…. By nightfall … the XIX Corps had reached Marksville with the rest of the army strung out behind.
Late on 15 May, Banks learned that Taylor had massed his forces six miles ahead at the town of Mansura, evidently with the intention of blocking further Federal movement on the road to Simmesport…. On learning of the concentration of rebel forces, Banks sent orders to Emory directing him to move no later than 0300 [3 a.m.] on 16 May and to attack the enemy at daybreak. Further, Smith advanced on Emory’s right to attack into Taylor’s left flank. The XIII Corps [13th Corps], now under Lawler since 9 May … was to remain in front of Marksville as the reserve. The trains [Union wagon trains] were held behind that town….
As ordered, the Army of the Gulf moved south before sunrise. As morning dawned, the Federal army began its deployment on the wide open plain of the Avoyelles Prairie. The US troops advanced with Emory’s XIX [including the 47th Pennsylvania] in the lead with Grover’s 1st Division on the Federal left near the Grand River and McMillan’s 2nd Division [including the 47th Pennsylvania] on the right. The XIX Corps was followed by A. J. Smith’s XVI Corps [16th Corps] in column; Mower’s division was followed by that of Kilby Smith. As the Federal brigades deployed on the field they could see the Confederate battle line in the distance. Virtually in the center of the battlefield was the tiny village of Mansura.
According to Clay, Confederate Major-General Richard Taylor (a plantation owner and son of former U.S. President Zachary Taylor) “had placed eight dismounted cavalry regiments from Major’s and Bagby’s commands to the east of the hamlet” of Mansura. “At least 19 cannon with the batteries interspersed among the brigades supported these troops.” Confederate Brigadier-General Camille Armand Jules Marie, the Prince de Polignac, a prince of France who fought with the Confederate Army during America’s Civil War and whom the 47th Pennsylvanian Volunteers had previously faced in combat during the Battle of Sabine Cross Roads near Mansfield, Louisiana, “posted his two small infantry brigades and two dismounted regiments of cavalry on the left, west of town, and thirteen more guns supported Polignac’s force.”

New York Tribune headline announcing the U.S. Army of the Gulf’s May 1864 victory near Marksville, Louisiana (New York Tribune, June 3, 1864, public domain).

Standing “on a flat, green savanna,” according to Clay, the troops under Brigadier-General Emory’s command, including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, were the first to march into the battle’s fray, followed by A. J. Smith’s “divisions to the right of the line.” It quickly became obvious to all who were watching the scene unfold that Taylor had woefully misjudged his opponents; his six thousand Confederates were greeted with the spectacle of the eighteen-thousand strong Army of the Gulf arrayed before them.
According to Clay, “The battle began sometime after 0600 [6 a.m.] with a mutual artillery bombardment.”
As the fusillade opened, commanders on both sides ordered their men to lie down in order to reduce casualties during the artillery duel. The tactic was effective. The barrage lasted about four hours, but few men were struck by the many rounds fired. As the Union battle line rose and moved forward on occasion, Taylor’s skirmish line responded by slowly giving ground…. Finally, at about 1000 (1 p.m.), as the XVI Corps pressed forward on the Confederate left to flank Taylor’s position as planned, the rebel line quickly sidestepped the move and fell back toward their trains which were located southwest in the village of Evergreen.
Unlike the sanguinary opening battles of the Red River Campaign, the Battle of Mansura was far less brutal. Per Wharton:
Our loss was slight. Of the rebels we could not ascertain correctly, but learned from citizens who had secreted themselves during the fight, that they had many killed and wounded, who threw them into wagons, promiscuously, and drove them off so that we could not learn their casualties.
Afterward, the victorious Army of the Gulf resumed its march south. According Major-General Banks:
The 16th of May we reached Simmsport [sic, Simmesport], on the Atchafalaya. Being entirely destitute of any ordinary bridge material for the passage of this river – about six hundred yards wide – a bridge was constructed of the steamers, under direction of Lieutenant Colonel Bailey. This work was not of the same magnitude, but was as important to the army as the dam at Alexandria was to the navy. It had the merit of being an entirely novel construction, no bridge of such magnitude having been constructed of similar materials. The bridge was completed at one o’clock on the 19th of May. The wagon train passed in the afternoon, and the troops the next morning, in better spirit and condition, as able and eager to meet the enemy as at any period of the campaign.
Union Major-General Nathaniel Banks subsequently reported that, during the Army of the Gulf’s final engagement with Confederates, the “command of General A. J. Smith, which covered the rear of the army during the construction of the bridge and the passage of the army, had a severe engagement with the enemy, under Polignac, on the afternoon of the 19th, at Yellow Bayou, which lasted several hours.”
Our loss was about one hundred and fifty in killed and wounded; that of the enemy much greater, besides many prisoners who were taken by our troops. Major General E. R. S. Canby arrived at Simmsport [sic, Simmesport] on the 19th of May, and the next day assumed command of the troops as a portion of the forces of the military division of the West Mississippi, to the command of which he had been assigned.
The 47th Pennsylvania, however, was not involved in that battle at Yellow Bayou; according to Wharton:
This fight was the last one of the expedition. The whole of the force is safe on the Mississippi, gunboats, transports and trains. The 16th and 17th have gone to their old commands.
It is amusing to read the statements of correspondents to papers North, concerning our movements and the losses of our army. I have it from the best source that the Federal loss from Franklin to Mansfield, and from their [sic] to this point does not exceed thirty-five hundred in killed, wounded and missing, while that of the rebels is over eight thousand.

Union Army base at Morganza Bend, Louisiana, circa 1863-1865 (U.S. Library of Congress, public domain).

After that final battle, the surviving members of the 47th made their way through Simmesport and into the Atchafalaya Basin, and then moved on to the village of Morganza, where they made camp again. According to Wharton, the members of Company C were sent on a special mission which took them on an intense journey of one hundred and twenty miles:
Company C, on last Saturday was detailed by the General in command of the Division to take one hundred and eighty-seven prisoners (rebs) to New Orleans. This they done [sic] satisfactorily and returned yesterday to their regiment, ready for duty. While in the City some of the boys made Captain Gobin quite a handsome present, to show their appreciation of him as an officer gentleman.
By May 28, 1864, the men from Company C had returned from New Orleans and were once again encamped at Morganza with the full 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, prompting Henry Wharton to write:
The boys are well. James Kennedy who was wounded at Pleasant Hill, died at New Orleans hospital a few days ago. His friends in the company were pleased to learn that Dr. Dodge of Sunbury, now of the U.S. Steamer Octorora, was with him in his last moments, and ministered to his wants. The Doctor was one of the Surgeons from the Navy who volunteered when our wounded was [sic, were] sent to New Orleans.
Their long trek through Louisiana was over, but their fight to preserve America’s Union was not.
Sources:
1. Banks, Nathaniel P. “Report of the Red River Campaign,” in “Annual Report of the Secretary of War,” in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington: Government Printing Office, 1866.
2. Bates, Samuel P. History of Pennsylvania Volunteers, 1861-5, vol. 1. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: B. Singerly, State Printer, 1869.
3. “Battle of Pleasant Hill, April 9, 1864, Walker’s Texas Division Campaign Map, Detail,” in “House Divided.” Carlisle, Pennsylvania: History Department, Dickinson College, November 21, 2009 (cropped from the original public domain map available on the website of the U.S. Library of Congress).
4. Clay, Steven E. The Staff Ride Handbook for the Red River Campaign, 7 March-19 May 1864. Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: Combat Studies Institute Press, U.S. Army Combined Arms Centers, 2023.
5. Prisoner of War Records, Camp Ford and Camp Groce (47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry). Tyler Texas: Smith County Historical Society, 2010.
6. “Report of Maj. Gen. Nathaniel P. Banks, U. S. Army, Commanding Expedition and Department of the Gulf” (to Edwin M. Stanton, Secretary of War), in Annual Report of the Secretary of War, in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1866.
7. Schmidt, Lewis G. A Civil War History of the 47th Regiment of Pennsylvania Veteran Volunteers. Allentown, Pennsylvania: Self-published, 1986.
8. “The History of the Forty-Seventh Regt. P. V.” Allentown, Pennsylvania: The Lehigh Register, July 20, 1870.
9. Wharton, Henry D. Letters from the Sunbury Guards, 1861-1868. Sunbury, Pennsylvania: Sunbury American.
https://47thpennsylvaniavolunteers.com/2024/05/16/the-march-from-marksville-to-morganza-louisiana-and-the-battle-of-mansura-mid-to-late-may-1864/
#003366 #1864 #47thPennsylvaniaInfantry #47thPennsylvaniaVolunteers #Alexandria #America #AmericanCivilWar #AmericanHistory #Army #ArmyOfTheGulf #Atchafalaya #AvoyellesParish #BattleOfMansura #CivilWar #CommonwealthOfPennsylvania #Emory #History #Infantry #LaurelHill #Louisiana #Mansura #Marksville #Morganza #NathanielPBanks #PennsylvaniaHistory #RapidesParish #RedRiver #RedRiverCampaign #Simmesport #Slavery #TheUnionArmy #USMilitaryAndTheUnionArmy #USSLaurelHill #WilliamHEmory #XIXCorps
#47thpennsylvaniainfantry #47thpennsylvaniavolunteers #alexandria #america #americancivilwar #americanhistory
47th Pennsylvania Volunteers @[email protected] · 2024-05-16 · 07:49 UTC
USS Laurel Hill, May 26, 1862 (Baldwin Lithograph, Collection of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Hyde Park, New York, 1936, U.S. Naval Heritage Command, public domain).

Barely out of sight of the city of Alexandria, in Rapides Parish Louisiana, when it ran into the enemy during its retreat south in mid-May 1864, the Union’s Army of the Gulf easily defeated the Confederate States Army troops it encountered and continued its trek toward the village of Marksville in Avoyelles Parish. Members of the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, which was positioned farther back in the Union column, were aware of, but not involved in, that short engagement. According to C Company Musician Henry D. Wharton:
After marching a few miles skirmishing commenced in front between the cavalry and the enemy in riflepits [sic] on the bank of the river, but they were easily driven away. When we came up we discovered their pits and places where there had been batteries planted. At this point the John Warren, an unarmed transport, on which were sick soldiers and women, was fired into and sunk, killing many and those that were not drowned taken prisoners. A tin-clad gunboat was destroyed at the same place, by which we lost a large mail. Many letters and directed envelopes were found on the bank – thrown there after the contents had been read by the unprincipled scoundrels. The inhumanity of Guerrilla bands in this department is beyond belief, and if one did not know the truth of it or saw some of their barbarities, he would write it down as the story of a ‘reliable gentleman’ or as told by an ‘intelligent contraband.’ Not satisfied with his murderous intent on unarmed transports he fires into the Hospital steamer Laurel Hill, with four hundred sick on board. This boat had the usual hospital signal floating fore and aft, yet, notwithstanding all this, and the customs of war, they fired on them, proving by this act that they are more hardened than the Indians on the frontier.
* Note: The USS Laurel Hill survived the attack and, in a few short weeks, became the final home for ailing 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, including Corporal William Schweitzer and Privates Amandus Bellis and Nicholas Hoffman (Company A) and Private John Witz (Company E).

Map of key 1864 Red River Campaign locations, showing the battle sites of Sabine Cross Roads, Pleasant Hill and Mansura in relation to the Union’s occupation sites at Alexandria, Grand Ecore, Morganza, and New Orleans (excerpt from Dickinson College/U.S. Library of Congress map, public domain; click to enlarge).

Resuming their trek south with the retreating Army of the Gulf, the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers engaged in yet another long march, trudging more than thirty miles as the month of May 1864 wore on. According to the expedition’s commanding officer, Union Major-General Nathaniel P. Banks:
The fleet passed below Alexandria on the 13th of May. The army on its march from Alexandria did not encounter the enemy in force until near the town of Mansura. He was driven through the town in the evening of the 14th of May, and at daybreak next morning our advance encountered his cavalry on the prairie east of the town.
According to Henry Wharton, “On Sunday, May 15, we left the river road and took a short route through the woods, saving considerable distance.”
The windings of Red river are so numerous that it resembles the tape-worm railroad wherewith the politicians frightened the dear people during the administration of Ritner and Stevens. – We stopped several hours in the woods to leave cavalry pass, when we moved forward and by four o’clock emerged into a large open plain where we formed in line of battle, expecting a regular engagement. The enemy, however, retired and we advanced ‘till dark, when the forces halted for the night, with orders to rest on their arms. – ‘Twas here that Banks rode through our regiment, amidst the cheers of the boys, and gave the pleasant news that Grant had defeated Lee.

“Sleeping on Their Arms” by Winslow Homer (Harper’s Weekly, May 21, 1864).

Positioned just outside of the town of Marksville, under orders to “rest on their arms” for the night, the 47th Pennsylvanians half-dozed with their rifles within a finger’s length—but without the benefit of tents for cover. It was the eve of the Battle of Mansura, which unfolded on May 16, 1864 as follows, according to Wharton:
Early next morning we marched through Marksville into a prairie nine miles long and six wide where every preparation was made for a fight. The whole of our force was formed in line, in support of artillery in front, who commenced operations on the enemy driving him gradually from the prairie into the woods. As the enemy retreated before the heavy fire of our artillery, the infantry advanced in line until they reached Mousoula [sic, Mansura], where they formed in column, taking the whole field in an attempt to flank the enemy, but their running qualities were so good that we were foiled. The maneuvring [sic, maneuvering] of the troops was handsomely done, and the movements was [sic, were] one of the finest things of the war. The fight of artillery was a steady one of five miles. The enemy merely stood that they might cover the retreat of their infantry and train under cover of their artillery.
Per Major-General Banks, the Confederate troops “fell back, with steady and sharp skirmishing across the prairie, to a belt of woods, which he occupied.”
The enemy’s position covered three roads diverging from Mansura to the Atchafalaya. He manifested a determination here to obstinately resist our passage. The engagement, which lasted several hours, was confined chiefly to the artillery until our troops got possession of the edge of the woods – first upon our left by General Emory; subsequently on our right by General Smith, when he was driven from the field, after a sharp and decisive fight, with considerable loss.
According to military historian Steven E. Clay, “As the Army of the Gulf marched from Alexandria to Simmesport, it followed the River Road. As it moved, Taylor’s cavalry harassed the column from all sides.”
Steele’s men resumed the pressure on A. J. Smith’s rearguard. Annoying Emory and the cavalry advanced guard was Major and Bagby’s commands. The troops also attempted to slow the Federal march by cutting trees and placing other obstacles in the way. Parson’s men skirmished with Gooding’s troopers on the right flank. None of the rebel cavalry’s efforts, however, appreciably slowed the Union column.
On 14 May, the army’s van arrived at Bayour Choctaw. Emory called the pontoon train forward, and within a short time, the pontonniers had the stream bridged and the army was crossing…. That evening the troops of the XIX Corps [including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers] bivouacked beside the wrecks of the John Warner, Signal, and Covington. Strewn upon the ground were the letters many of the men had mailed to their loved ones earlier and had been placed on the Warner bound for New Orleans. The rebel soldiers had opened the letters, read them for entertainment, and simply tossed them aside. The idea did not sit well with the Federals, but neither did the wanton destruction and plunder of civilian homes with the Confederates.
On 15 May the column slowly crossed the Bayou Choctaw Swamp and entered the Avoyelles … Prairie. There, Major’s cavalry, later along with Bagby’s troops, attacked the lead elements several times. The fighting became so hot at moments that Emory deployed his artillery to help drive the bothersome rebel troopers away…. By nightfall … the XIX Corps had reached Marksville with the rest of the army strung out behind.
Late on 15 May, Banks learned that Taylor had massed his forces six miles ahead at the town of Mansura, evidently with the intention of blocking further Federal movement on the road to Simmesport…. On learning of the concentration of rebel forces, Banks sent orders to Emory directing him to move no later than 0300 [3 a.m.] on 16 May and to attack the enemy at daybreak. Further, Smith advanced on Emory’s right to attack into Taylor’s left flank. The XIII Corps [13th Corps], now under Lawler since 9 May … was to remain in front of Marksville as the reserve. The trains [Union wagon trains] were held behind that town….
As ordered, the Army of the Gulf moved south before sunrise. As morning dawned, the Federal army began its deployment on the wide open plain of the Avoyelles Prairie. The US troops advanced with Emory’s XIX [including the 47th Pennsylvania] in the lead with Grover’s 1st Division on the Federal left near the Grand River and McMillan’s 2nd Division [including the 47th Pennsylvania] on the right. The XIX Corps was followed by A. J. Smith’s XVI Corps [16th Corps] in column; Mower’s division was followed by that of Kilby Smith. As the Federal brigades deployed on the field they could see the Confederate battle line in the distance. Virtually in the center of the battlefield was the tiny village of Mansura.
According to Clay, Confederate Major-General Richard Taylor (a plantation owner and son of former U.S. President Zachary Taylor) “had placed eight dismounted cavalry regiments from Major’s and Bagby’s commands to the east of the hamlet” of Mansura. “At least 19 cannon with the batteries interspersed among the brigades supported these troops.” Confederate Brigadier-General Camille Armand Jules Marie, the Prince de Polignac, a prince of France who fought with the Confederate Army during America’s Civil War and whom the 47th Pennsylvanian Volunteers had previously faced in combat during the Battle of Sabine Cross Roads near Mansfield, Louisiana, “posted his two small infantry brigades and two dismounted regiments of cavalry on the left, west of town, and thirteen more guns supported Polignac’s force.”

New York Tribune headline announcing the U.S. Army of the Gulf’s May 1864 victory near Marksville, Louisiana (New York Tribune, June 3, 1864, public domain).

Standing “on a flat, green savanna,” according to Clay, the troops under Brigadier-General Emory’s command, including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, were the first to march into the battle’s fray, followed by A. J. Smith’s “divisions to the right of the line.” It quickly became obvious to all who were watching the scene unfold that Taylor had woefully misjudged his opponents; his six thousand Confederates were greeted with the spectacle of the eighteen-thousand strong Army of the Gulf arrayed before them.
According to Clay, “The battle began sometime after 0600 [6 a.m.] with a mutual artillery bombardment.”
As the fusillade opened, commanders on both sides ordered their men to lie down in order to reduce casualties during the artillery duel. The tactic was effective. The barrage lasted about four hours, but few men were struck by the many rounds fired. As the Union battle line rose and moved forward on occasion, Taylor’s skirmish line responded by slowly giving ground…. Finally, at about 1000 (1 p.m.), as the XVI Corps pressed forward on the Confederate left to flank Taylor’s position as planned, the rebel line quickly sidestepped the move and fell back toward their trains which were located southwest in the village of Evergreen.
Unlike the sanguinary opening battles of the Red River Campaign, the Battle of Mansura was far less brutal. Per Wharton:
Our loss was slight. Of the rebels we could not ascertain correctly, but learned from citizens who had secreted themselves during the fight, that they had many killed and wounded, who threw them into wagons, promiscuously, and drove them off so that we could not learn their casualties.
Afterward, the victorious Army of the Gulf resumed its march south. According Major-General Banks:
The 16th of May we reached Simmsport [sic, Simmesport], on the Atchafalaya. Being entirely destitute of any ordinary bridge material for the passage of this river – about six hundred yards wide – a bridge was constructed of the steamers, under direction of Lieutenant Colonel Bailey. This work was not of the same magnitude, but was as important to the army as the dam at Alexandria was to the navy. It had the merit of being an entirely novel construction, no bridge of such magnitude having been constructed of similar materials. The bridge was completed at one o’clock on the 19th of May. The wagon train passed in the afternoon, and the troops the next morning, in better spirit and condition, as able and eager to meet the enemy as at any period of the campaign.
Union Major-General Nathaniel Banks subsequently reported that, during the Army of the Gulf’s final engagement with Confederates, the “command of General A. J. Smith, which covered the rear of the army during the construction of the bridge and the passage of the army, had a severe engagement with the enemy, under Polignac, on the afternoon of the 19th, at Yellow Bayou, which lasted several hours.”
Our loss was about one hundred and fifty in killed and wounded; that of the enemy much greater, besides many prisoners who were taken by our troops. Major General E. R. S. Canby arrived at Simmsport [sic, Simmesport] on the 19th of May, and the next day assumed command of the troops as a portion of the forces of the military division of the West Mississippi, to the command of which he had been assigned.
The 47th Pennsylvania, however, was not involved in that battle at Yellow Bayou; according to Wharton:
This fight was the last one of the expedition. The whole of the force is safe on the Mississippi, gunboats, transports and trains. The 16th and 17th have gone to their old commands.
It is amusing to read the statements of correspondents to papers North, concerning our movements and the losses of our army. I have it from the best source that the Federal loss from Franklin to Mansfield, and from their [sic] to this point does not exceed thirty-five hundred in killed, wounded and missing, while that of the rebels is over eight thousand.

Union Army base at Morganza Bend, Louisiana, circa 1863-1865 (U.S. Library of Congress, public domain).

After that final battle, the surviving members of the 47th made their way through Simmesport and into the Atchafalaya Basin, and then moved on to the village of Morganza, where they made camp again. According to Wharton, the members of Company C were sent on a special mission which took them on an intense journey of one hundred and twenty miles:
Company C, on last Saturday was detailed by the General in command of the Division to take one hundred and eighty-seven prisoners (rebs) to New Orleans. This they done [sic] satisfactorily and returned yesterday to their regiment, ready for duty. While in the City some of the boys made Captain Gobin quite a handsome present, to show their appreciation of him as an officer gentleman.
By May 28, 1864, the men from Company C had returned from New Orleans and were once again encamped at Morganza with the full 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, prompting Henry Wharton to write:
The boys are well. James Kennedy who was wounded at Pleasant Hill, died at New Orleans hospital a few days ago. His friends in the company were pleased to learn that Dr. Dodge of Sunbury, now of the U.S. Steamer Octorora, was with him in his last moments, and ministered to his wants. The Doctor was one of the Surgeons from the Navy who volunteered when our wounded was [sic, were] sent to New Orleans.
Their long trek through Louisiana was over, but their fight to preserve America’s Union was not.
Sources:
1. Banks, Nathaniel P. “Report of the Red River Campaign,” in “Annual Report of the Secretary of War,” in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington: Government Printing Office, 1866.
2. Bates, Samuel P. History of Pennsylvania Volunteers, 1861-5, vol. 1. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: B. Singerly, State Printer, 1869.
3. “Battle of Pleasant Hill, April 9, 1864, Walker’s Texas Division Campaign Map, Detail,” in “House Divided.” Carlisle, Pennsylvania: History Department, Dickinson College, November 21, 2009 (cropped from the original public domain map available on the website of the U.S. Library of Congress).
4. Clay, Steven E. The Staff Ride Handbook for the Red River Campaign, 7 March-19 May 1864. Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: Combat Studies Institute Press, U.S. Army Combined Arms Centers, 2023.
5. Prisoner of War Records, Camp Ford and Camp Groce (47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry). Tyler Texas: Smith County Historical Society, 2010.
6. “Report of Maj. Gen. Nathaniel P. Banks, U. S. Army, Commanding Expedition and Department of the Gulf” (to Edwin M. Stanton, Secretary of War), in Annual Report of the Secretary of War, in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1866.
7. Schmidt, Lewis G. A Civil War History of the 47th Regiment of Pennsylvania Veteran Volunteers. Allentown, Pennsylvania: Self-published, 1986.
8. “The History of the Forty-Seventh Regt. P. V.” Allentown, Pennsylvania: The Lehigh Register, July 20, 1870.
9. Wharton, Henry D. Letters from the Sunbury Guards, 1861-1868. Sunbury, Pennsylvania: Sunbury American.
https://47thpennsylvaniavolunteers.com/2024/05/16/the-march-from-marksville-to-morganza-louisiana-and-the-battle-of-mansura-mid-to-late-may-1864/
#003366 #1864 #47thPennsylvaniaInfantry #47thPennsylvaniaVolunteers #Alexandria #America #AmericanCivilWar #AmericanHistory #Army #ArmyOfTheGulf #Atchafalaya #AvoyellesParish #BattleOfMansura #CivilWar #CommonwealthOfPennsylvania #Emory #History #Infantry #LaurelHill #Louisiana #Mansura #Marksville #Morganza #NathanielPBanks #PennsylvaniaHistory #PennsylvaniaInTheCivilWar #RapidesParish #RedRiver #RedRiverCampaign #Simmesport #Slavery #TheUnionArmy #USMilitaryAndTheUnionArmy #USSLaurelHill #WilliamHEmory #XIXCorps
#xixcorps #williamhemory #usslaurelhill #usmilitaryandtheunionarmy #theunionarmy #slavery
47th Pennsylvania Volunteers @[email protected] · 2024-05-16 · 07:49 UTC
USS Laurel Hill, May 26, 1862 (Baldwin Lithograph, Collection of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Hyde Park, New York, 1936, U.S. Naval Heritage Command, public domain).

Barely out of sight of the city of Alexandria, in Rapides Parish Louisiana, when it ran into the enemy during its retreat south in mid-May 1864, the Union’s Army of the Gulf easily defeated the Confederate States Army troops it encountered and continued its trek toward the village of Marksville in Avoyelles Parish. Members of the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, which was positioned farther back in the Union column, were aware of, but not involved in, that short engagement. According to C Company Musician Henry D. Wharton:
After marching a few miles skirmishing commenced in front between the cavalry and the enemy in riflepits [sic] on the bank of the river, but they were easily driven away. When we came up we discovered their pits and places where there had been batteries planted. At this point the John Warren, an unarmed transport, on which were sick soldiers and women, was fired into and sunk, killing many and those that were not drowned taken prisoners. A tin-clad gunboat was destroyed at the same place, by which we lost a large mail. Many letters and directed envelopes were found on the bank – thrown there after the contents had been read by the unprincipled scoundrels. The inhumanity of Guerrilla bands in this department is beyond belief, and if one did not know the truth of it or saw some of their barbarities, he would write it down as the story of a ‘reliable gentleman’ or as told by an ‘intelligent contraband.’ Not satisfied with his murderous intent on unarmed transports he fires into the Hospital steamer Laurel Hill, with four hundred sick on board. This boat had the usual hospital signal floating fore and aft, yet, notwithstanding all this, and the customs of war, they fired on them, proving by this act that they are more hardened than the Indians on the frontier.
* Note: The USS Laurel Hill survived the attack and, in a few short weeks, became the final home for ailing 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, including Corporal William Schweitzer and Privates Amandus Bellis and Nicholas Hoffman (Company A) and Private John Witz (Company E).

Map of key 1864 Red River Campaign locations, showing the battle sites of Sabine Cross Roads, Pleasant Hill and Mansura in relation to the Union’s occupation sites at Alexandria, Grand Ecore, Morganza, and New Orleans (excerpt from Dickinson College/U.S. Library of Congress map, public domain; click to enlarge).

Resuming their trek south with the retreating Army of the Gulf, the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers engaged in yet another long march, trudging more than thirty miles as the month of May 1864 wore on. According to the expedition’s commanding officer, Union Major-General Nathaniel P. Banks:
The fleet passed below Alexandria on the 13th of May. The army on its march from Alexandria did not encounter the enemy in force until near the town of Mansura. He was driven through the town in the evening of the 14th of May, and at daybreak next morning our advance encountered his cavalry on the prairie east of the town.
According to Henry Wharton, “On Sunday, May 15, we left the river road and took a short route through the woods, saving considerable distance.”
The windings of Red river are so numerous that it resembles the tape-worm railroad wherewith the politicians frightened the dear people during the administration of Ritner and Stevens. – We stopped several hours in the woods to leave cavalry pass, when we moved forward and by four o’clock emerged into a large open plain where we formed in line of battle, expecting a regular engagement. The enemy, however, retired and we advanced ‘till dark, when the forces halted for the night, with orders to rest on their arms. – ‘Twas here that Banks rode through our regiment, amidst the cheers of the boys, and gave the pleasant news that Grant had defeated Lee.

“Sleeping on Their Arms” by Winslow Homer (Harper’s Weekly, May 21, 1864).

Positioned just outside of the town of Marksville, under orders to “rest on their arms” for the night, the 47th Pennsylvanians half-dozed with their rifles within a finger’s length—but without the benefit of tents for cover. It was the eve of the Battle of Mansura, which unfolded on May 16, 1864 as follows, according to Wharton:
Early next morning we marched through Marksville into a prairie nine miles long and six wide where every preparation was made for a fight. The whole of our force was formed in line, in support of artillery in front, who commenced operations on the enemy driving him gradually from the prairie into the woods. As the enemy retreated before the heavy fire of our artillery, the infantry advanced in line until they reached Mousoula [sic, Mansura], where they formed in column, taking the whole field in an attempt to flank the enemy, but their running qualities were so good that we were foiled. The maneuvring [sic, maneuvering] of the troops was handsomely done, and the movements was [sic, were] one of the finest things of the war. The fight of artillery was a steady one of five miles. The enemy merely stood that they might cover the retreat of their infantry and train under cover of their artillery.
Per Major-General Banks, the Confederate troops “fell back, with steady and sharp skirmishing across the prairie, to a belt of woods, which he occupied.”
The enemy’s position covered three roads diverging from Mansura to the Atchafalaya. He manifested a determination here to obstinately resist our passage. The engagement, which lasted several hours, was confined chiefly to the artillery until our troops got possession of the edge of the woods – first upon our left by General Emory; subsequently on our right by General Smith, when he was driven from the field, after a sharp and decisive fight, with considerable loss.
According to military historian Steven E. Clay, “As the Army of the Gulf marched from Alexandria to Simmesport, it followed the River Road. As it moved, Taylor’s cavalry harassed the column from all sides.”
Steele’s men resumed the pressure on A. J. Smith’s rearguard. Annoying Emory and the cavalry advanced guard was Major and Bagby’s commands. The troops also attempted to slow the Federal march by cutting trees and placing other obstacles in the way. Parson’s men skirmished with Gooding’s troopers on the right flank. None of the rebel cavalry’s efforts, however, appreciably slowed the Union column.
On 14 May, the army’s van arrived at Bayour Choctaw. Emory called the pontoon train forward, and within a short time, the pontonniers had the stream bridged and the army was crossing…. That evening the troops of the XIX Corps [including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers] bivouacked beside the wrecks of the John Warner, Signal, and Covington. Strewn upon the ground were the letters many of the men had mailed to their loved ones earlier and had been placed on the Warner bound for New Orleans. The rebel soldiers had opened the letters, read them for entertainment, and simply tossed them aside. The idea did not sit well with the Federals, but neither did the wanton destruction and plunder of civilian homes with the Confederates.
On 15 May the column slowly crossed the Bayou Choctaw Swamp and entered the Avoyelles … Prairie. There, Major’s cavalry, later along with Bagby’s troops, attacked the lead elements several times. The fighting became so hot at moments that Emory deployed his artillery to help drive the bothersome rebel troopers away…. By nightfall … the XIX Corps had reached Marksville with the rest of the army strung out behind.
Late on 15 May, Banks learned that Taylor had massed his forces six miles ahead at the town of Mansura, evidently with the intention of blocking further Federal movement on the road to Simmesport…. On learning of the concentration of rebel forces, Banks sent orders to Emory directing him to move no later than 0300 [3 a.m.] on 16 May and to attack the enemy at daybreak. Further, Smith advanced on Emory’s right to attack into Taylor’s left flank. The XIII Corps [13th Corps], now under Lawler since 9 May … was to remain in front of Marksville as the reserve. The trains [Union wagon trains] were held behind that town….
As ordered, the Army of the Gulf moved south before sunrise. As morning dawned, the Federal army began its deployment on the wide open plain of the Avoyelles Prairie. The US troops advanced with Emory’s XIX [including the 47th Pennsylvania] in the lead with Grover’s 1st Division on the Federal left near the Grand River and McMillan’s 2nd Division [including the 47th Pennsylvania] on the right. The XIX Corps was followed by A. J. Smith’s XVI Corps [16th Corps] in column; Mower’s division was followed by that of Kilby Smith. As the Federal brigades deployed on the field they could see the Confederate battle line in the distance. Virtually in the center of the battlefield was the tiny village of Mansura.
According to Clay, Confederate Major-General Richard Taylor (a plantation owner and son of former U.S. President Zachary Taylor) “had placed eight dismounted cavalry regiments from Major’s and Bagby’s commands to the east of the hamlet” of Mansura. “At least 19 cannon with the batteries interspersed among the brigades supported these troops.” Confederate Brigadier-General Camille Armand Jules Marie, the Prince de Polignac, a prince of France who fought with the Confederate Army during America’s Civil War and whom the 47th Pennsylvanian Volunteers had previously faced in combat during the Battle of Sabine Cross Roads near Mansfield, Louisiana, “posted his two small infantry brigades and two dismounted regiments of cavalry on the left, west of town, and thirteen more guns supported Polignac’s force.”

New York Tribune headline announcing the U.S. Army of the Gulf’s May 1864 victory near Marksville, Louisiana (New York Tribune, June 3, 1864, public domain).

Standing “on a flat, green savanna,” according to Clay, the troops under Brigadier-General Emory’s command, including the 47th Pennsylvania Volunteers, were the first to march into the battle’s fray, followed by A. J. Smith’s “divisions to the right of the line.” It quickly became obvious to all who were watching the scene unfold that Taylor had woefully misjudged his opponents; his six thousand Confederates were greeted with the spectacle of the eighteen-thousand strong Army of the Gulf arrayed before them.
According to Clay, “The battle began sometime after 0600 [6 a.m.] with a mutual artillery bombardment.”
As the fusillade opened, commanders on both sides ordered their men to lie down in order to reduce casualties during the artillery duel. The tactic was effective. The barrage lasted about four hours, but few men were struck by the many rounds fired. As the Union battle line rose and moved forward on occasion, Taylor’s skirmish line responded by slowly giving ground…. Finally, at about 1000 (1 p.m.), as the XVI Corps pressed forward on the Confederate left to flank Taylor’s position as planned, the rebel line quickly sidestepped the move and fell back toward their trains which were located southwest in the village of Evergreen.
Unlike the sanguinary opening battles of the Red River Campaign, the Battle of Mansura was far less brutal. Per Wharton:
Our loss was slight. Of the rebels we could not ascertain correctly, but learned from citizens who had secreted themselves during the fight, that they had many killed and wounded, who threw them into wagons, promiscuously, and drove them off so that we could not learn their casualties.
Afterward, the victorious Army of the Gulf resumed its march south. According Major-General Banks:
The 16th of May we reached Simmsport [sic, Simmesport], on the Atchafalaya. Being entirely destitute of any ordinary bridge material for the passage of this river – about six hundred yards wide – a bridge was constructed of the steamers, under direction of Lieutenant Colonel Bailey. This work was not of the same magnitude, but was as important to the army as the dam at Alexandria was to the navy. It had the merit of being an entirely novel construction, no bridge of such magnitude having been constructed of similar materials. The bridge was completed at one o’clock on the 19th of May. The wagon train passed in the afternoon, and the troops the next morning, in better spirit and condition, as able and eager to meet the enemy as at any period of the campaign.
Union Major-General Nathaniel Banks subsequently reported that, during the Army of the Gulf’s final engagement with Confederates, the “command of General A. J. Smith, which covered the rear of the army during the construction of the bridge and the passage of the army, had a severe engagement with the enemy, under Polignac, on the afternoon of the 19th, at Yellow Bayou, which lasted several hours.”
Our loss was about one hundred and fifty in killed and wounded; that of the enemy much greater, besides many prisoners who were taken by our troops. Major General E. R. S. Canby arrived at Simmsport [sic, Simmesport] on the 19th of May, and the next day assumed command of the troops as a portion of the forces of the military division of the West Mississippi, to the command of which he had been assigned.
The 47th Pennsylvania, however, was not involved in that battle at Yellow Bayou; according to Wharton:
This fight was the last one of the expedition. The whole of the force is safe on the Mississippi, gunboats, transports and trains. The 16th and 17th have gone to their old commands.
It is amusing to read the statements of correspondents to papers North, concerning our movements and the losses of our army. I have it from the best source that the Federal loss from Franklin to Mansfield, and from their [sic] to this point does not exceed thirty-five hundred in killed, wounded and missing, while that of the rebels is over eight thousand.

Union Army base at Morganza Bend, Louisiana, circa 1863-1865 (U.S. Library of Congress, public domain).

After that final battle, the surviving members of the 47th made their way through Simmesport and into the Atchafalaya Basin, and then moved on to the village of Morganza, where they made camp again. According to Wharton, the members of Company C were sent on a special mission which took them on an intense journey of one hundred and twenty miles:
Company C, on last Saturday was detailed by the General in command of the Division to take one hundred and eighty-seven prisoners (rebs) to New Orleans. This they done [sic] satisfactorily and returned yesterday to their regiment, ready for duty. While in the City some of the boys made Captain Gobin quite a handsome present, to show their appreciation of him as an officer gentleman.
By May 28, 1864, the men from Company C had returned from New Orleans and were once again encamped at Morganza with the full 47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, prompting Henry Wharton to write:
The boys are well. James Kennedy who was wounded at Pleasant Hill, died at New Orleans hospital a few days ago. His friends in the company were pleased to learn that Dr. Dodge of Sunbury, now of the U.S. Steamer Octorora, was with him in his last moments, and ministered to his wants. The Doctor was one of the Surgeons from the Navy who volunteered when our wounded was [sic, were] sent to New Orleans.
Their long trek through Louisiana was over, but their fight to preserve America’s Union was not.
Sources:
1. Banks, Nathaniel P. “Report of the Red River Campaign,” in “Annual Report of the Secretary of War,” in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington: Government Printing Office, 1866.
2. Bates, Samuel P. History of Pennsylvania Volunteers, 1861-5, vol. 1. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: B. Singerly, State Printer, 1869.
3. “Battle of Pleasant Hill, April 9, 1864, Walker’s Texas Division Campaign Map, Detail,” in “House Divided.” Carlisle, Pennsylvania: History Department, Dickinson College, November 21, 2009 (cropped from the original public domain map available on the website of the U.S. Library of Congress).
4. Clay, Steven E. The Staff Ride Handbook for the Red River Campaign, 7 March-19 May 1864. Fort Leavenworth, Kansas: Combat Studies Institute Press, U.S. Army Combined Arms Centers, 2023.
5. Prisoner of War Records, Camp Ford and Camp Groce (47th Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry). Tyler Texas: Smith County Historical Society, 2010.
6. “Report of Maj. Gen. Nathaniel P. Banks, U. S. Army, Commanding Expedition and Department of the Gulf” (to Edwin M. Stanton, Secretary of War), in Annual Report of the Secretary of War, in Message of the President of the United States, and Accompanying Documents, to the Two Houses of Congress, at the Commencement of the First Session of the Thirty-Ninth Congress. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1866.
7. Schmidt, Lewis G. A Civil War History of the 47th Regiment of Pennsylvania Veteran Volunteers. Allentown, Pennsylvania: Self-published, 1986.
8. “The History of the Forty-Seventh Regt. P. V.” Allentown, Pennsylvania: The Lehigh Register, July 20, 1870.
9. Wharton, Henry D. Letters from the Sunbury Guards, 1861-1868. Sunbury, Pennsylvania: Sunbury American.
https://47thpennsylvaniavolunteers.com/2024/05/16/the-march-from-marksville-to-morganza-louisiana-and-the-battle-of-mansura-mid-to-late-may-1864/
#003366 #1864 #47thPennsylvaniaInfantry #47thPennsylvaniaVolunteers #Alexandria #America #AmericanCivilWar #AmericanHistory #Army #ArmyOfTheGulf #Atchafalaya #AvoyellesParish #BattleOfMansura #CivilWar #CommonwealthOfPennsylvania #Emory #History #Infantry #LaurelHill #Louisiana #Mansura #Marksville #Morganza #NathanielPBanks #PennsylvaniaHistory #PennsylvaniaInTheCivilWar #RapidesParish #RedRiver #RedRiverCampaign #Simmesport #Slavery #TheUnionArmy #USMilitaryAndTheUnionArmy #USSLaurelHill #WilliamHEmory #XIXCorps
#47thpennsylvaniainfantry #47thpennsylvaniavolunteers #alexandria #america #americancivilwar #americanhistory
The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos [Unofficial] @[email protected] · 2026-01-20 · 22:16 UTC

Some Republicans Begin to Echo Trump’s Case to Acquire Greenland

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/us/politics/republicans-trump-greenland.html

#unitedstatesinternationalrelations #trumpdonaldj #tillisthomasr #mooreblake1980 #lawlermike1986 #johnsonmike1972
Lawler @Lawler · 2026-05-15 · 05:01 UTC

CHINO MAFIOSO ASUSTA A VENDEDOR DE PIRATERÍA (Broma Telefónica)
Abre tu Plata Cuenta antes de que… https://ift.tt/rhEl1zM
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-03-03 · 05:37 UTC

Wow that shootemup was the bees knees wasn't it lolololol we got raided by @dokuroscarmiglione.neocities.org and @tsarvt.bsky.social tonight, and raided @nyakubs.vtubers.social who's playing in a huge collab! Nite everyone, thanks for coming! #STREAMEND

#streamend
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-02-12 · 06:06 UTC

Raided by
@dokuroscarmiglione.neocities.org
and
@arikado.bsky.social
tonight! And raided
@stariavt.bsky.social
who is playing #starcitizen >:3
More WANTED: DEAD To come in the future~
#STREAMEND

#starcitizen #streamend
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-02-12 · 02:55 UTC

Multi-billion dollar slop games dying within two weeks of release while you got absolute auteurs producing works of memeart with cult followings... like tonight's offering, WANTED: DEAD!
Going in mostly blind live at https://twitch.tv/lulztime!
#envtuber #vtuber #eldenwood

#envtuber #vtuber #eldenwood
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-02-11 · 05:27 UTC

Special thanks to @qrowrose.bsky.social for the raid and joining me for some multiplayer the rest of the stream, and the raids from @lizardguy64.bsky.social , @alyssanddusty.com , @tivparkervt.bsky.social , and @internetrain.net ! Raided @shiftingshobra.bsky.social tonight, playing Metro! #STREAMEND

#streamend
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-02-11 · 02:18 UTC

Since when did Lulz stream a N*intendo emulator gay-
oh, wait, it's legally distinct Pierce Brosnan simulator!?
You bet your ass.
Live right now. https://twitch.tv/lulztime
#envtuber #vtuber #eldenwood

#envtuber #vtuber #eldenwood
Lawler Hix :verified: @[email protected] · 2026-02-06 · 06:00 UTC

raided out to @whiskystudios.net tonight who is finishing Final Fantasy Tactics! Thanks for coming.
#STREAMEND

#streamend