#ilyinascience — Public Fediverse posts

Acceleration of #climatechange is taking place due to our failure to cut increasing CO2 emissions.

Any impact of Arctic coastal #permafrost erosion on the global #climate through increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations until 2100 is comparatively small.

Yet, this new #EarthSystemModel component allows for a better quantification of the carbon budget, necessary for carbon monitoring under #decarbonisation .

Read more in this press release 👇
https://www.uni-hamburg.de/en/newsroom/presse/2024/pm40.html
#ilyinaScience

In a #newpaper from my group, led by David Nielsen, we incorporated coastal permafrost as a new component of an #EarthSystemModel.

This allowed us to quantify that #coastal #permafrost erosion weakens the Arctic Ocean #CO2 uptake from the atmosphere by 7-14%.

This exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on #climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature.

Find out more here👇
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02074-3
#ilyinaScience

Coastal ocean might be a more efficient #CO2 sink than the open #ocean as we found in our new paper led by Moritz Mathis. Find out why here👇
https://nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01956-w

Spoiler: we show that the increase in #CoastalOcean #CO2uptake during the 20th century was primarily driven by biological responses to climate-induced circulation changes (36%) and increasing riverine nutrient loads (23%), together exceeding the ocean CO2 solubility pump (41%).
@hereon
#ilyinaScience

Have a look at our simulation of the air-sea #CO2 flux and surface wind speed in a high-resolution #EarthSystemModel model ICON 👇
https://youtu.be/63NZSPjxv6w

I find September particularly fascinating in this animation. A hurricane in the Western Atlantic entirely messes up the CO2 flux. Here, the immediate effect is that the hurricane enhances the outgassing of CO2. Behind it, the flux swaps the sign and there is uptake of CO2.

#ilyinaScience

Can we predict if atmospheric CO2 grows faster or slower than what is expected from emissions' growth?

Yes, by assimilating observational data into an #ESM, we gain a predictive skill of 5 years for the air–sea CO2 flux, and 2 years for the air–land CO2 flux and atmospheric carbon growth rate.

Find out more on how we predict the global carbon cycle and evaluate modeled atmospheric CO2 in our new study
https://mas.to/@HongmeiLi/109834343353355699

by @HongmeiLi @MPI_Meteo

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/101/2023/

#ilyinaScience

When we start cutting CO2 emissions, when will atmospheric CO2 concentration go down?

On decadal timescales, the effect of emission changes is masked by natural climate variability modes (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

We show that natural variability disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth to CO₂ mitigation for up to a decade.

Atmospheric CO2 can even rise faster despite falling emissions (~30% chance).

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc443

#ilyinaScience

Our paper on the application of component concurrency allowing to improve the scalability of simulations and reduce the real-runtime for biogeochemical tracers' computation is now published 🎉

https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/9157/2022/

Learn more why we find it exciting:
https://mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/109471706342238360

@MPI_Meteo

#ilyinaScience

With my group, I study a #CDR method of artificially increasing ocean C-sink by adding alkalinity.

In an #EarthSystemModel
large amounts of alkalinity boost the oceans' capacity to absorb CO2.
This comes at a price of unprecedented perturbations in #biogeochemistry with unknown implications for marine life.

Learn more in our papers
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057981
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068576
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077847
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000620
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.624075
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001634

#ilyinaScience

@derp_code
yep, thinking of introducing a hashtag like #ilyinaScience and add it in my toots 😆

How does Earth breathe CO2 under different #ClimateChange scenarios?

Have a look at this visualization showing seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 modulated by anthropogenic emissions and the strength of the ocean and land carbon sinks.

Computed with an #EarthSystemModel #MPI-ESM.
Details at #DKRZ Gallery:
https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/galerie/Vis/esm/seasonal-variations-of-co2-under-climate-change

#ilyinaScience

It is challenging to represent the #CoastalOcean #CarbonCycle in an #EarthSystemModel.

Due to a relatively coarse spatial resolution, #global models do not resolve the complex coastal #biogeochemical dynamics. #Regional models don't get the open-coastal ocean exchange at their boundaries.

Find out how we address this challenge with a telescoping #HighResolution #model:

https://mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/109444770151344342

Here is the link to the paper:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002789

#ilyinaScience

A month ago I became #NewOnMastodon, still learning, but liking it more and more here.

As an #EarthSystem scientist I am fascinated about the #CarbonCycle, especially in the #ocean and how we quantify it with Earth System #models in past, present, and future climates.

#ClimateChange is essentially a #CO2 problem. It is virtually impossible to be a #ClimateScientist without becoming deeply concerned about #ClimateEmergency.

Watch this space and follow #ilyinaScience for updates.