#ilyinascience — Public Fediverse posts

Acceleration of #climatechange is taking place due to our failure to cut increasing CO2 emissions.

Any impact of Arctic coastal #permafrost erosion on the global #climate through increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations until 2100 is comparatively small.

Yet, this new #EarthSystemModel component allows for a better quantification of the carbon budget, necessary for carbon monitoring under #decarbonisation .

Read more in this press release 👇
https://www.uni-hamburg.de/en/newsroom/presse/2024/pm40.html
#ilyinaScience

In a #newpaper from my group, led by David Nielsen, we incorporated coastal permafrost as a new component of an #EarthSystemModel.

This allowed us to quantify that #coastal #permafrost erosion weakens the Arctic Ocean #CO2 uptake from the atmosphere by 7-14%.

This exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on #climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature.

Find out more here👇
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02074-3
#ilyinaScience

Have a look at our simulation of the air-sea #CO2 flux and surface wind speed in a high-resolution #EarthSystemModel model ICON 👇
https://youtu.be/63NZSPjxv6w

I find September particularly fascinating in this animation. A hurricane in the Western Atlantic entirely messes up the CO2 flux. Here, the immediate effect is that the hurricane enhances the outgassing of CO2. Behind it, the flux swaps the sign and there is uptake of CO2.

#ilyinaScience

With my group, I study a #CDR method of artificially increasing ocean C-sink by adding alkalinity.

In an #EarthSystemModel
large amounts of alkalinity boost the oceans' capacity to absorb CO2.
This comes at a price of unprecedented perturbations in #biogeochemistry with unknown implications for marine life.

Learn more in our papers
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057981
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068576
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077847
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000620
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.624075
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001634

#ilyinaScience

How does Earth breathe CO2 under different #ClimateChange scenarios?

Have a look at this visualization showing seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 modulated by anthropogenic emissions and the strength of the ocean and land carbon sinks.

Computed with an #EarthSystemModel #MPI-ESM.
Details at #DKRZ Gallery:
https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/galerie/Vis/esm/seasonal-variations-of-co2-under-climate-change

#ilyinaScience

It is challenging to represent the #CoastalOcean #CarbonCycle in an #EarthSystemModel.

Due to a relatively coarse spatial resolution, #global models do not resolve the complex coastal #biogeochemical dynamics. #Regional models don't get the open-coastal ocean exchange at their boundaries.

Find out how we address this challenge with a telescoping #HighResolution #model:

https://mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/109444770151344342

Here is the link to the paper:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002789

#ilyinaScience