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#atmis — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. - #AU mission #ATMIS has transitioned to #AUSSOM (2025-2026), only 11,000 strong. The modality of Ethiopian participation within AUSSOM is in discussion. #Egypt should oversee the mission. #Burundi quit over the size of their expected contingent, which they deemed too small.

    #Somalia #Ethiopia

  2. Nevertheless, it might have a first result by the integration of Ethiopian troops within the #AU peace mission, formerly #AMISOM, then #ATMIS, now known as #AUSSOM since 1 Jan 2025. A key aspect of the new mission shall be Egyptian oversight however, an uneasy situation for all involved.

    As the crisis developed, #Egypt and #Eritrea, major Somali allies since 2022, have doubled down on their support to the country in her spat against a common enemy.

  3. African countries have overwhelmingly mentioned the #Gaza war, usually out of anticolonial solidarity with #Palestine, or the #Ukraine war, as an example of a renewed cold war and a nuisance for the continent. On the margins, peace in the #DRC and #Sudan have been wished for.

    But no single African country has mentioned the conflicts in/between #Ethiopia and #Somalia so far — except for #Kenya, which only boasted its participation in #ATMIS.

    #Israel #Russia #UN #UNGA #Africa

  4. #UNGA 79th session, General Debate

    #Kenya's president William Ruto has regretted that "the world's most powerful states" are increasingly choosing "unilateralism and militarization", an obvious sting against #Russia.

    He underlined his own country's initiatives, ranging from Kenya's participation in #ATMIS (#Somalia) and MSSM #Haiti to the Tumaini initiative meant to bring peace to #SouthSudan.

    gadebate.un.org/en/79/kenya

    #UN #Africa #Ukraine

  5. #Ethiopia and #Somalia edge closer to war

    After reports of troops movements near the Somali border, Ethiopian troops have taken control of all airports in Gedo — a region of #Jubaland at the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. The move is intended to prevent Egypt from deploying troops in the region. This comes a day after the Somali representative warned #ATMIS troops against any infringement of his country’s sovereignty, which would be considered “an act of aggression”.

    garoweonline.com/en/news/somal

  6. The sharpest focus remains on whether Ethiopian troops will remain on Somali soil beyond the end of #ATMIS in December 2024. A new mission, #AUSSOM , is to replace it and be led by #Egypt, #Ethiopia’s Nilotic rival.

    medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/

    #Somalia #Somaliland

  7. he latter served to prove #Ethiopia had clients among Somali regions, including #Jubaland and Southwest, which rely heavily on Ethiopian involvement in and out of #ATMIS to fight Al #Shabaab.

    medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/

    #Somalia #Somaliland

  8. #Djibouti has already committed forces to the new mission, with #Burundi, #Kenya and #Uganda expected to follow suit. The question is raised whether Ethiopian troops within and out of #ATMIS will remain on Somali soil under these new conditions. Much will depend on #Turkey’s current attempt at mediation in the MoU crisis.

    #Ethiopia #Somalia #Somaliland

  9. The cold spell in Somali-#UAE relations also allowed for #Egypt to come to the fore. The new #AU mission meant to replace #ATMIS in January 2025 (AU Support and Stabilization Mission in #SOMalia, #AUSSOM) should be led by Egypt.

    #Ethiopia #Somaliland

  10. The signal to the international community is disastrous amid doubts on the future of Somali security, in the context of the total lifting of the #UN #Somalia sanctions regime and the projected end of #AU mission #ATMIS at the end of the year.

  11. The only upside of this looming conflict is the reinforcement of Djiboutian-Somali solidarity in the face of #Ethiopia, #Somaliland and Al #Shabaab. #Djibouti will be a key player of #Somalia’s post-#ATMIS future, despite its limited size. Elders of the #Gadabuursi clan had first seeked support in Mogadiscio before turning to their immediate neighbour.

  12. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (#ATMIS) has handed over the Abdalla Birolle Forward Operating Base (FOB) to the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF). The military base, previously under the responsibility of ATMIS Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), is the fourth to be transferred as part of the Phase Three drawdown. It is our assessment that as soon as ATMIS fully withdraws, the same things will happen here as in Afghanistan and al-Shabaab will overrun the country.

  13. In the context of the still unresolved conflict with #Ethiopia, neighbours #Djibouti and #Kenya, both contributors to #ATMIS, become key players in #Somalia’s post-ATMIS future. Bilateral agreements are being negotiated with them and several other African states so that their troops remain deployed on Somali soil beyond the end of the #AU mission.

  14. Clan infighting in Central #Somalia has recently resulted in more than 50 dead and 60 wounded. Those same clans now turning on each other had been the main Somali asset in the war against AS in the region.

    It also follows a Somali request to slow down a planned #ATMIS withdrawal — that had been requested by Somalia in the first place — and contested reports by VoA of major AS gains in Central Somalia more or less resulting in a return to the statu quo ante of 2022.

    #Ethiopia

  15. The move comes weeks after #Somalia has demanded that Ethiopian troops should leave Somali soil once #ATMIS entirely withdraws. Anxious reactions by the Southwest and #Jubaland have motivated the unilateral retraction of this failed ultimatum.

    The increasingly haphazard Somali strategy in facing the threat constituted by the MoU for the past 3 months has not been the only factor emboldening #Ethiopia to proceed with her maneuvers.

  16. Until 1 January and the #Ethiopia-#Somaliland MoU, that country was considered the main ally in the fight against Al #Shabaab (AS). An Ethiopian pledge to contribute more troops was pivotal to #Somalia’s security after #ATMIS was to end in December 2024.

    In the current circumstances however, this is merely a show of force.

  17. Ethiopian show of force in #Somalia

    At face value, the incursion of several thousands Ethiopian troops in border regions is business as usual. Besides being a troop contributor to #ATMIS, #Ethiopia already has a number of men deployed outside of the AU mission.

  18. #Somalia then surprised observers by announcing a rather mild decision in an inflammatory manner, which led many to describe it as yet another “ultimatum”. It had been in fact only the logical consequence of the end of #ATMIS’ mandate and of the obvious lack of a bilateral agreement on #Ethiopia’s continued military intervention from 2025 onward, that Ethiopian troops should leave by December 2024.

    #Somaliland

  19. It will further impede the war against Al #Shabaab (AS) and compromise #Somalia's post-#ATMIS future, when the #UAE are giving Somalia the cold shoulder and #Russia's possible involvement could cost #US, #UK and #EU support and funding.

    #Somaliland #Ethiopia

  20. But whereas last December #Ethiopia was seen as the main provider of troops in and outside #ATMIS for 2024 and a key ally for the post-ATMIS future, it will - logically - not be the case anymore.

    #Somalia #Somaliland

  21. Most importantly, this translates in what has been mistakenly portrayed as another Somali ultimatum on the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops now on Somali soil. December 2024 is in fact the date of the end of #AU mission #ATMIS, a date that had long been set.

    #Ethiopia #Somalia #Somaliland

  22. It remains at this time highly unlikely that #Ethiopia will withdraw her troops from #Somalia, whether in or out of #ATMIS. Meanwhile, Al #Shabaab will benefit from this new development, as it has from the tensions since 1 January, whether or not war materializes.

    #Somaliland #Puntland #AU

  23. Uncertainty also prevails on the post-#ATMIS future, with the #AU mission scheduled to leave #Somalia by the end of 2024, and on the continued stay of Ethiopian troops in the country, after the recent spat over #Somaliland.

    #Ethiopia #Shabaab

  24. These congratulations, while fully justified, did not directly address #Somalia's request as regards a further transition plan for 2024-2025 (#AU mission #ATMIS is to leave the country by December 2024). Neither did it address the most pressing issue at hand.

    #Ethiopia #Somaliland

  25. Neighbours #Djibouti and #Kenya are likely to keep troops in Somalia as well. #Ethiopia's role is in question since the dispute over #Somaliland. She currently has troops both in and out of #ATMIS fighting AS. The country also shared key intelligence and provided training.

    #Somalia #Shabaab

  26. After dazzling results in the first few months, the war has been slower during 2023. Despite volontarism on all sides, it has been stuck in phase 1: the liberation of Central #Somalia. #ATMIS' mandate had therefore been extended to Dec 2024.

  27. #Somalia prepares for #ATMIS withdrawal

    A successor to IGASOM (2006-2007) and AMISOM (2007-2022), ATMIS is the #AU mission tasked with supporting the Somalia Transition Plan (STP), improving national capacities, delivering aid, and fighting Al #Shabaab (AS) as part of the all-out war begun at the summer of 2022.

  28. Under Somalia's security plans, ATMIS will draw down its troops over the next 14 months before withdrawing completely by the end of 2024, with Somali security forces assuming primary responsibility in this area.#Somalia #ATMIS #MilitaryOfficers #Training
    Somalia: AU Mission Trains New Military Officers
  29. Some very sloppy #Somalia reporting by AFP...

    (1) Baardheere (aka Bardhere/Bardera) is northwest of #Mogadishu, not south of it.

    (2) What the heck does "ADC" stand for? Article doesn't even attempt to explain.

    (3) Describing "major offensive" against #AlShabaab as "backed by #ATMIS" is a bit of a stretch - ATMIS has been conspicuously uninvolved.

    france24.com/en/live-news/2023

  30. EU support to @ATMIS_Somalia 🇸🇴 and Somali National Army: @EUCouncil pledges its continued support to #ATMIS and SNA with an additional €110 million under the European Peace Facility to fight against #alShabaab in close partnership with @_AfricanUnion.
    Find out more 👇

    🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/EUCouncilPres

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