#wisdomofcrowds — Public Fediverse posts

"...the correctness of crowds, as reflected in market prices, has gotten worse over the past few decades, and does not seem to have a theory as to why. I have one. The business community has gotten way better at propaganda and spin. ... companies had gotten much better at spin, again making it harder to be sure about information. So the baseline of knowledge has eroded, leading to less well informed views generally."
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/12/wordle-the-wisdom-of-crowds-and-bubbles.html
#business #markets #economics #crash #WisdomofCrowds

The #wisdomOfCrowds suggests that aggregating judgments from multiple people yields more accurate estimates.

For #diagnosis, human-AI crowds' had better aggregate decisions than all-human crowds or all-AI crowds:

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.14981

#medicine #AI #LLMs #edu #expertise #HCI

Ensemble theory and the Wisdom of Crowds. Where political science and machine learning come together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976241252138

Wisdom of the crowd comes from the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most strategies enhance the wisdom of crowds by improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity.

QUESTION: Is it possible to make the crowd wiser while making individuals more inaccurate?

When people adopt extreme and erronous views, this may not degrade the whole society. Paradoxically, it can make us collectively smarter.

#ml #ensembleLearning #socialPsycology #socialScience #wisdomOfCrowds #socialLearning
#politicalScience

Ensemble theory and the Wisdom of Crowds. Where political science and machine learning come together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976241252138

Wisdom of the crowd comes from the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most strategies enhance the wisdom of crowds by improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity.

QUESTION: Is it possible to make the crowd wiser while making individuals more inaccurate?

When people adopt extreme and erronous views, this may not degrade the whole society. Paradoxically, it can make us collectively smarter.

#ml #ensembleLearning #socialPsycology #socialScience #wisdomOfCrowds #socialLearning
#politicalScience

Ensemble theory and the Wisdom of Crowds. Where political science and machine learning come together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976241252138

Wisdom of the crowd comes from the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most strategies enhance the wisdom of crowds by improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity.

QUESTION: Is it possible to make the crowd wiser while making individuals more inaccurate?

When people adopt extreme and erronous views, this may not degrade the whole society. Paradoxically, it can make us collectively smarter.

#ml #ensembleLearning #socialPsycology #socialScience #wisdomOfCrowds #socialLearning
#politicalScience

Ensemble theory and the Wisdom of Crowds. Where political science and machine learning come together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976241252138

Wisdom of the crowd comes from the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most strategies enhance the wisdom of crowds by improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity.

QUESTION: Is it possible to make the crowd wiser while making individuals more inaccurate?

When people adopt extreme and erronous views, this may not degrade the whole society. Paradoxically, it can make us collectively smarter.

#ml #ensembleLearning #socialPsycology #socialScience #wisdomOfCrowds #socialLearning
#politicalScience

Ensemble theory and the Wisdom of Crowds. Where political science and machine learning come together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976241252138

Wisdom of the crowd comes from the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most strategies enhance the wisdom of crowds by improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity.

QUESTION: Is it possible to make the crowd wiser while making individuals more inaccurate?

When people adopt extreme and erronous views, this may not degrade the whole society. Paradoxically, it can make us collectively smarter.

#ml #ensembleLearning #socialPsycology #socialScience #wisdomOfCrowds #socialLearning
#politicalScience

Aha! MSNBC has created a way for viewers/readers/poscast patrons to give feedback! I was, just yesterday, lamenting how hysterical and unwatchable it has become. #eww
But I believe their people can do better!

(Someone, let me know when it gets better, and I'll return 😕. #wisdomOfCrowds, go!)

See here: (Sadly, it's US only.)
https://cnbcrsh.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3TUNjdZGhQ6s3ZA?Origin=msnbcdailynewsletter

Checking out voicenotes.com 🤔

Who's using it? What do you think?
#wisdomOfCrowds #voicenotes

Does anyone have a good report/story of a #CyberSecurity #Incident where the different stages are visible? Especially the use and risk of "Internal" unpatched systems?
It doesn't need to be spectacular (actually it's probably better if it is banal)

The idea is to use it a base for the eternal discussion that "internal" systems don't need to be patched (or scanned).

Please #Boost for reach
#WisdomOfCrowds #SwarnIntelligence

Q: do screenreaders generally handle markdown well? Or does it mess up the flow?

#wisdomofcrowds #alttext4me #alttext4you

Time for #wisdomOfCrowds:

I'm looking for a kind, bilingual pension advisor, in Germany, to provide me with a little advice and help.

Whatcha got? 🤞

When #teaching about the #wisdomOfCrowds, I poll the #class on how old I was in my profile picture.

The class #average and #mode are always spot on, but individuals' error is often more than 15 years!

This makes me wonder about a #DunningKrugerEffect in #age #perception: do people who poorly estimate people's age tend to be more overconfident in their age estimates?

If so, my wisdom of crowds experiments make me think that people's assessments of my age may tell me more about *them* than me.

Paging, #wisdomofcrowds !

I have been running a fever for 6 months. It is low-grade throughout the day, up to 101, but rises to 103+ in the evenings/night.

Doctors have checked infectious factors, but my labs just show elevated CRP for the most part.

I am waiting to get in with a new rheumatologist, and my PCP has exhausted his resources. Any thoughts on what they could be looking for in the meantime? Not looking for any kind of diagnosis based on marginal info, but ideas welcome!

@marenmayer just submitted a revised paper:

Cultural consensus theory (CCT) for two-dimensional location judgments
https://psyarxiv.com/unhvc/

#CCT provides estimates of the shared, latent #consensus knowledge of a group of informants (similar to #WisdomOfCrowds), while accounting for heterogeneity in informant competence & item difficulty.

We develop a new CCT model for location judgments which are obtained when asking informants to locate a set of unknown sites on a map.

How might we cultivate personal and collective habits of taking a #StepBack, to look at layers of wider context, nested inside each other. For example, we want federated platforms. Why? Because we want freedom to communicate and deliberate. Why? Because we believe the #WisdomOfCrowds can be leveraged to solve otherwise intractable social problems. Why?