#cliodynamics — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #cliodynamics, aggregated by home.social.
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@gombang Betul. So then the question is where the Second Foundation is, given the constant battles of #WMF (the First Foundation) vs Wikipedians. My guess is it's the FOSS/Fedi community - "unknown" to the vast masses.
It turns out that #psychohistory [1] has become a real field of study - #cliodynamics [2] - with researchers acknowledging that peace and armed conflict systems are dynamical systems [3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_universe#Psychohistory
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/cliodynamics
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/complex_system_approach_to_peace_and_armed_conflict
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“In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.”
—Peter Turchin
#cliodynamics -
The Tyee: Are These the End Times? Who Will Save Us? https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2023/06/29/These-End-Times-Who-Save-Us/ #bcnews #TheTyee - via @[email protected] #EndTimes:Elites,Counter-ElitesandthePathofPoliticalDisintegration #ComplexityScienceHubVienna #U.S.PresidentDonaldTrump #FranklinDelanoRoosevelt #historianPeterTurchin #popularimmiseration #TheGreatDepression #Americancivilwar #MargaretThatcher #medievalEurope #SecondWorldWar #U.S.democracy #cliodynamics #PenguinPress #RonaldReagan
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This article is great. Name checks the #LongNow foundation as well as #cliodynamics (better known to #Asimov #Foundation fans as #psychohistory).
https://www.wired.com/2013/01/forget-big-data-think-long-data/
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@seldoncrisis Sounds interesting... have you read any of #PeterTurchin 's work? #cliodynamics
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Through mathematical models, scientists such as Nicolas Rashevsky and Peter Turchin have established the presence of universal principles that underlie human cultural evolution. In this article, we examine the different contributions made to this theory. #cliodynamics #psychohistory #asimov https://metode.org/issues/monographs/rashevskys-dream.html
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Stupid opinion since I haven’t read the article, but from the outside the case for #cliodynamics looks to me as weak as the case for #technicalanalysis: systems so complex and rare as the History of countries and the price of stocks can’t be “predicted” by looking at past trends and patterns. Perhaps if we had had already millions of years of History, millions of nations with good written records, and millions of traded companies over the same long period of time — perhaps then some reliable patterns might emerge. And I’m still doubtful, given what little I know about #chaostheory.
(Just a hunch; epistemological confidence: low :)
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History is driven by surprising events, forecasting is driven by predictable ones.
To this I amend "as practiced". Approaches such as #PeterTurchin's #Cliodynamics or #DavidChristian's #BigHistory, along with other forms of #Systems, #Complexity, #Evolutionary, and #Information based approaches suggest that there may be lenses through which both the past and future become clearer.
I'd suggest that this observation might be most useful for identifying potentially poorly considered history and forecasting practices.
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