#davidchristian — Public Fediverse posts

History is driven by surprising events, forecasting is driven by predictable ones.

To this I amend "as practiced". Approaches such as #PeterTurchin's #Cliodynamics or #DavidChristian's #BigHistory, along with other forms of #Systems, #Complexity, #Evolutionary, and #Information based approaches suggest that there may be lenses through which both the past and future become clearer.

I'd suggest that this observation might be most useful for identifying potentially poorly considered history and forecasting practices.

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The Axial Age: Co-emergence of universal empires, religions, and trade & commerce -- Trust

...It is no accident that universal religions appeared when both empires and exchange networks reached to the edge of the known universe. Nor is it an accident that one of the earliest religions of this type, Zoroastrianism, appeared ... at the hub of trade routes that were weaving Afro-Eurasia into a single world system....

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/71a3tx/the_axial_age_coemergence_of_universal_empires/

#dreddit #AxialAge #religion #empire #trust #BigHistory #DavidChristian