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#superforecasters — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #superforecasters, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Neither #AI-concerned nor AI-skeptical groups substantially updated their views about AI risk.

    …despite “8 weeks (…median: 31 hours) reading background materials, developing forecasts, and engaging in online discussion and video calls” (N = 22).

    Another report from the #Forecasting Research Institute finding that sustained, collaborative education and reasoning barely impacted forecasts: forecastingresearch.org/news/a

    #tech #geopolitics #expertise #superforecasters #socialPsych #epistemology