#ryanhall — Public Fediverse posts

#RyanHall #SevereWeather #NEwx #NDwx #LAwx

From Ryan Hall Y’all on FB: Level 2 risk today for damaging wind and large hail across Nebraska, North Dakota, and Louisiana, roughly 6.9 million people inside that zone. Up in North Dakota, storms near Fargo could start as rotating cells with big hail before clustering up, with the best hail window running 4 PM to midnight and peaking near 6 this evening. Down along the Gulf coast, Baton Rouge and nearby Louisiana towns are watching a wind threat that ramps up quickly this afternoon and peaks close to 3 PM. There's also a tornado risk today, but it covers a much smaller part of the overall area, mainly tied to those Nebraska and North Dakota storms before they line out.

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From Ryan Hall Y’all on FB: SPC just upgraded the tornado wording on today's outlook for Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. They've now added the significant tornado flag, which means a strong, long-track tornado is on the table this afternoon and evening, not just a brief spin-up along a line of storms.

Philadelphia, Washington DC, and Baltimore are the cities sitting closest to the bullseye. Baltimore's best window for storms runs 1 to 9 PM, with activity likely busiest around 3 PM. The overall risk category didn't change, but this kind of same-day upgrade is SPC's way of saying the setup got a little more serious than it looked this morning. Good day to make sure your phone can get you a warning if one gets issued near you.
@DismalManorGang

#RyanHall #SevereWeather #MidWest #Plains

From Ryan Hall Y’all: Today's Level 2 severe risk is really two separate stories happening at the same time.

Out on the central High Plains, storms are rolling off the Rockies into Colorado and Nebraska this afternoon, and the setup supports a mix of rotating supercells and storm clusters. That means isolated large hail is possible, plus strong wind gusts, with the best window for that near Akron, CO around 4 PM before it slides east through the evening.

Over in the Ohio Valley, the same slow-moving storm complex that's been sitting over the region is expected to wake back up this afternoon as it moves into hot, humid air. The heavy rain feeding those storms can produce wet microbursts, sudden bursts of wind that slam down and spread out fast, and Dayton and Cincinnati look to be in the best window for that risk, peaking around 5 PM.

#RyanHall #SevereWeather #Flooding #OHwx #INwx

From Ryan Hall Y’all on FB: Ohio and Indiana just moved up to WPC's Moderate flood risk category for tomorrow, one step above where the outlook had them sitting this morning.

That upgrade covers roughly 3.6 million people, including Columbus, Dayton, Springfield, Muncie, and Lima. WPC's Moderate category is built around a 40% or higher chance that rain rates in that area outrun what the drains and small creeks can carry off. If storms line up and repeat over that region tomorrow, that's the kind of setup that turns an ordinary summer rain into fast flooding on low roads and underpasses. Worth building some slack into your Saturday plans if you're heading through that part of Ohio or Indiana.

#RyanHall #OhioValley #SevereWeather

From Ryan Hall Y’all on FB: Storms rolling out of eastern Iowa this morning are pushing into some seriously charged, moist air over Illinois, and that combo is why today's threat matters.

Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois are under a Level 2 severe threat, with damaging wind clearly the top hazard over hail or tornadoes today. The Quad Cities area, right where that Iowa cluster is crossing into Illinois, has its best window for strong wind gusts around 10 AM, and that risk keeps sliding east through the day, sharpening again near Champaign around midday. Farther southeast, a second batch of storms could bring another round of gusty weather into the Evansville area by mid to late afternoon. Isolated large hail and a spin-up tornado are possible with the stronger storms, but wind damage is what forecasters are most focused on today.
@DismalManorGang