#profyanxuetong — Public Fediverse posts

I think it is important for anyone looking to understand the world we live in to have not only an #OpenMind, but to be able to see things from another perspective. So here is an interesting summary of where this world of ours might be in the next 10 years, written by Thomas des Garets Geddes, of crystal ball gazing from the #Chinese perspective (Source: Sinification on substack Follow the link to the article in James Farqharsan’s restack here. https://substack.com/@jamesfarquharson186716 )

1. US–China bipolarity will become firmly entrenched. The US will maintain an overall lead, dominating cyberspace, services and international influence, whilst China will dominate the physical economy, manufacturing and military scale.
2. Middle powers, including the EU and India, will reject ideological camps in favour of pragmatic, “issue-based alignment” [问题性结盟], navigating between the two superpower ecosystems.
3. Fuelled by populism, trade protectionism and the normalisation of “might makes right”, the current “counter-globalisation order” [逆全球化秩序] will reach its peak during the second Trump administration.
4. By 2035, prolonged political fragmentation and widespread popular dissatisfaction with almost two decades of counter-globalisation will generate global demand for a new international order grounded in basic moral principles.
5. AI-driven excess production and entrenched protectionism will fracture global markets, pushing states towards “club-style” coordination and cause a long-term shift away from the dollar towards gold and other currencies.
6. Cyberspace will supersede physical territory as the primary geopolitical arena, stratifying the globe into three tiers: intelligent technology standard-setters (the US and China), innovators and AI application economies.
7. The mutual estrangement of the US and Chinese R&D sectors will result in two distinct global digital standards and market spheres, while also reflecting a pattern of “homogenised development” [同质性发展] as the US increasingly mimics Chinese industrial policy.
8. The growing lethality of intelligent weapons, combined with nuclear deterrence, will constrain major powers to cyber operations. Yet the lower immediate lethality of such operations may increase the frequency of unmanned cyberattacks and conflict.
9, China should transition its diplomatic focus to cyberspace, encouraging enterprises to “go out” [走出去] via a “produce locally, consume locally” [当地生产当地消费] model to bypass protectionism and internationalise its tech standards.
10. To secure its global standing and achieve “high-quality opening up” [高水平对外开放], China must actively mitigate domestic populist currents and attract foreign research talent through institutional reform.

#InternationalRelations #Economics #RulesBasedOrder #China
#GeoPolitics #SuperPowers #Ideology #Politics #ProfYanXuetong

I think it is important for anyone looking to understand the world we live in to have not only an #OpenMind, but to be able to see things from another perspective. So here is an interesting summary of where this world of ours might be in the next 10 years, written by Thomas des Garets Geddes, of crystal ball gazing from the #Chinese perspective (Source: Sinification on substack Follow the link to the article in James Farqharsan’s restack here. https://substack.com/@jamesfarquharson186716 )

1. US–China bipolarity will become firmly entrenched. The US will maintain an overall lead, dominating cyberspace, services and international influence, whilst China will dominate the physical economy, manufacturing and military scale.
2. Middle powers, including the EU and India, will reject ideological camps in favour of pragmatic, “issue-based alignment” [问题性结盟], navigating between the two superpower ecosystems.
3. Fuelled by populism, trade protectionism and the normalisation of “might makes right”, the current “counter-globalisation order” [逆全球化秩序] will reach its peak during the second Trump administration.
4. By 2035, prolonged political fragmentation and widespread popular dissatisfaction with almost two decades of counter-globalisation will generate global demand for a new international order grounded in basic moral principles.
5. AI-driven excess production and entrenched protectionism will fracture global markets, pushing states towards “club-style” coordination and cause a long-term shift away from the dollar towards gold and other currencies.
6. Cyberspace will supersede physical territory as the primary geopolitical arena, stratifying the globe into three tiers: intelligent technology standard-setters (the US and China), innovators and AI application economies.
7. The mutual estrangement of the US and Chinese R&D sectors will result in two distinct global digital standards and market spheres, while also reflecting a pattern of “homogenised development” [同质性发展] as the US increasingly mimics Chinese industrial policy.
8. The growing lethality of intelligent weapons, combined with nuclear deterrence, will constrain major powers to cyber operations. Yet the lower immediate lethality of such operations may increase the frequency of unmanned cyberattacks and conflict.
9, China should transition its diplomatic focus to cyberspace, encouraging enterprises to “go out” [走出去] via a “produce locally, consume locally” [当地生产当地消费] model to bypass protectionism and internationalise its tech standards.
10. To secure its global standing and achieve “high-quality opening up” [高水平对外开放], China must actively mitigate domestic populist currents and attract foreign research talent through institutional reform.

#InternationalRelations #Economics #RulesBasedOrder #China
#GeoPolitics #SuperPowers #Ideology #Politics #ProfYanXuetong

I think it is important for anyone looking to understand the world we live in to have not only an #OpenMind, but to be able to see things from another perspective. So here is an interesting summary of where this world of ours might be in the next 10 years, written by Thomas des Garets Geddes, of crystal ball gazing from the #Chinese perspective (Source: Sinification on substack Follow the link to the article in James Farqharsan’s restack here. https://substack.com/@jamesfarquharson186716 )

1. US–China bipolarity will become firmly entrenched. The US will maintain an overall lead, dominating cyberspace, services and international influence, whilst China will dominate the physical economy, manufacturing and military scale.
2. Middle powers, including the EU and India, will reject ideological camps in favour of pragmatic, “issue-based alignment” [问题性结盟], navigating between the two superpower ecosystems.
3. Fuelled by populism, trade protectionism and the normalisation of “might makes right”, the current “counter-globalisation order” [逆全球化秩序] will reach its peak during the second Trump administration.
4. By 2035, prolonged political fragmentation and widespread popular dissatisfaction with almost two decades of counter-globalisation will generate global demand for a new international order grounded in basic moral principles.
5. AI-driven excess production and entrenched protectionism will fracture global markets, pushing states towards “club-style” coordination and cause a long-term shift away from the dollar towards gold and other currencies.
6. Cyberspace will supersede physical territory as the primary geopolitical arena, stratifying the globe into three tiers: intelligent technology standard-setters (the US and China), innovators and AI application economies.
7. The mutual estrangement of the US and Chinese R&D sectors will result in two distinct global digital standards and market spheres, while also reflecting a pattern of “homogenised development” [同质性发展] as the US increasingly mimics Chinese industrial policy.
8. The growing lethality of intelligent weapons, combined with nuclear deterrence, will constrain major powers to cyber operations. Yet the lower immediate lethality of such operations may increase the frequency of unmanned cyberattacks and conflict.
9, China should transition its diplomatic focus to cyberspace, encouraging enterprises to “go out” [走出去] via a “produce locally, consume locally” [当地生产当地消费] model to bypass protectionism and internationalise its tech standards.
10. To secure its global standing and achieve “high-quality opening up” [高水平对外开放], China must actively mitigate domestic populist currents and attract foreign research talent through institutional reform.

#InternationalRelations #Economics #RulesBasedOrder #China
#GeoPolitics #SuperPowers #Ideology #Politics #ProfYanXuetong

I think it is important for anyone looking to understand the world we live in to have not only an #OpenMind, but to be able to see things from another perspective. So here is an interesting summary of where this world of ours might be in the next 10 years, written by Thomas des Garets Geddes, of crystal ball gazing from the #Chinese perspective (Source: Sinification on substack Follow the link to the article in James Farqharsan’s restack here. https://substack.com/@jamesfarquharson186716 )

1. US–China bipolarity will become firmly entrenched. The US will maintain an overall lead, dominating cyberspace, services and international influence, whilst China will dominate the physical economy, manufacturing and military scale.
2. Middle powers, including the EU and India, will reject ideological camps in favour of pragmatic, “issue-based alignment” [问题性结盟], navigating between the two superpower ecosystems.
3. Fuelled by populism, trade protectionism and the normalisation of “might makes right”, the current “counter-globalisation order” [逆全球化秩序] will reach its peak during the second Trump administration.
4. By 2035, prolonged political fragmentation and widespread popular dissatisfaction with almost two decades of counter-globalisation will generate global demand for a new international order grounded in basic moral principles.
5. AI-driven excess production and entrenched protectionism will fracture global markets, pushing states towards “club-style” coordination and cause a long-term shift away from the dollar towards gold and other currencies.
6. Cyberspace will supersede physical territory as the primary geopolitical arena, stratifying the globe into three tiers: intelligent technology standard-setters (the US and China), innovators and AI application economies.
7. The mutual estrangement of the US and Chinese R&D sectors will result in two distinct global digital standards and market spheres, while also reflecting a pattern of “homogenised development” [同质性发展] as the US increasingly mimics Chinese industrial policy.
8. The growing lethality of intelligent weapons, combined with nuclear deterrence, will constrain major powers to cyber operations. Yet the lower immediate lethality of such operations may increase the frequency of unmanned cyberattacks and conflict.
9, China should transition its diplomatic focus to cyberspace, encouraging enterprises to “go out” [走出去] via a “produce locally, consume locally” [当地生产当地消费] model to bypass protectionism and internationalise its tech standards.
10. To secure its global standing and achieve “high-quality opening up” [高水平对外开放], China must actively mitigate domestic populist currents and attract foreign research talent through institutional reform.

#InternationalRelations #Economics #RulesBasedOrder #China
#GeoPolitics #SuperPowers #Ideology #Politics #ProfYanXuetong