#gazamoh — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #gazamoh, aggregated by home.social.
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CW: CW - War in Gaza 🧵5
Allegedly, most of those 20,000 reported dead have names and Israeli ID numbers?
And a lot have been recognised by #diaspora relatives.
For the deaths of women and children in #Gaza to be over reported by much #GazaMOH would have to be faking the deaths of vast numbers of real people who have documented identities (including in Israel) and real people who know them.
(cc @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] my other profiles)
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CW: CW - War in Gaza 🧵4
Even if they include all their local allies or recent surges in recruitment that can't be more than double.
In the past the demographics reported by #GazaMOH have been less reliable than the totals, but not by ENOUGH to make 7000 #militants "neutralised" plausible (from memory, totals have been about 3% of and demographics up to 10% when compared to independent counts).
#AdultMaleCivilians #WarInGAZA
(cc @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] my other profiles)
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CW: CW - war speculation
There were airstrikes on Al-Shifa hospital on 27 October … but there's been airstrikes on hospitals most days? So possibly meaningless?
When the #IDF say Al-Shifa had a #HamasBase in it … do they mean a government office that was reporting on civilian deaths?
#Hamas were more than a decade over due for an election, which is … not great … but still, a lot of "Hamas" is not military.
cc @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected]
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Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.
Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.
🔗 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext 🔗 the Lancet article this data is from
It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.
🔗 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9111161/ 🔗 "Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data" Dmitry Kobak
This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.
It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and
got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).
But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of Gaza began?
(cc my other profiles @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] for the notifications)
#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet
#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH
#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru #UNRWA
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Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.
Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.
🔗 I'll link the Lancet article this data is from in a minute 🔗
It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.
🔗 I'll try to find Dmitry Kobak's paper on that 🔗
This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.
It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)
But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).
But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of
Gaza began?(cc my other profiles @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] for the notifications)
#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet
#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH
#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru
-
Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.
Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.
🔗 I'll link the Lancet article this data is from in a minute 🔗
It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.
🔗 I'll try to find Dmitry Kobak's paper on that 🔗
This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.
It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)
But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).
But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of
Gaza began?(cc my other profiles @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] for the notifications)
#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet
#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH
#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru
-
Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.
Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.
🔗 I'll link the Lancet article this data is from in a minute 🔗
It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.
🔗 I'll try to find Dmitry Kobak's paper on that 🔗
This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.
It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)
But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).
But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of
Gaza began?(cc my other profiles @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] for the notifications)
#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet
#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH
#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru
-
Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.
Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.
🔗 I'll link the Lancet article this data is from in a minute 🔗
It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.
🔗 I'll try to find Dmitry Kobak's paper on that 🔗
This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.
It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)
But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).
But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of
Gaza began?(cc my other profiles @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] for the notifications)
#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet
#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH
#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru