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#aukus — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. I have to set the record straight here.

    I am not advocating for the #AUKUS Agreement, not Tier one and only selectively so for Tier Two. Nor am I advocating against it either.

    I acknowledge that I do not have the information to do either and satify myself that whatever choice I make or opinion I offer I do so grounded in knowledge and nor heresay or based on some emotional response to issues bordering (near and far, and even some too far to be relevent) to the matter.

    Having tooted this, from now on, I will only participate or comment on toots which are based on known facts about AUKUS and let all other opinions and rants slide. I’m done with totting logical comments that are then ignored or misunderstood in subsequent posts.

    Sometimes I am led to think that people will believe whatever they have set their mind to believe in spite of evidence, facts or logic. No offence meant, it’s just an observation. And, yes, peeps are entitled to their opinion whatever happens. Perhaps that’s the hardest lesson to learn. I know, I learn it every day even as my mind screems when those opinions appear irrational.

    Good night and good luck to you all.
    /retires for the night/

  2. @Heterokromia

    Whoa… you’re making some statements that require a lot of assumptions on your part here. Unless you’re privy to the project there is no way you can make them. And quoting a few detracting experts isn’t much support for them either. All *expert* witnesses to the public enquiry have axes to grind. Some are obvious ( #Turnbull ) other not so much (ex-Defence), but none of them are on the *inside* now.

    If #AUKUS was an illusion we wouldn’t have an ongoing project for it (there are still sane minds in our public service and in the #ADF to flag ‘impossible outcomes’). Whether AUKUS Tier One is poor value for money cannot be known, perhaps never will be, since this would require the value to be proven in a conflict (We’re talking here about whether the premium we pay is worth the insurance cover and possible payout). All I can say for sure is that there are valid strategic and tactical reasons to acquire #SSNs for the Australian Navy — we won’t acquire them just to be nice to the #US and the #UK or anyone else if we walk away from the current agreement.

    As to spending less on #Defence. We barely spend 2% of GDP on defence. NDIS expenditure alone is set to equal that by the time we get a single SSN (Source: dataresearch.ndis.gov.au). Never mind the cost of public health overall which was already around 10% of GDP back in 2023 (Source: Statista.com). But I respect your pacifist views on this. I just don’t agree with those views.

    As for International Institutions with military forces, that would be a surrender of sovereignty, the very criticism levelled at our US alliance and the AUKUS program. You can’t have it both ways. Moreover, we’ve had the #UN since 1945, with one war fought on its behalf that resolved nothing (1951 Korean War) and failed *intervention* and *peace keeping* missions enough to fill many history books. Unless we have a planetary govt, an armed international body is not going to spare anyone from the horrors of war and military aggression — 2,000 years of recorded history tells us that much. If an International military intervention is require, it is levied from countries willing to participate, and there we’re back to national standing armies which need to be funded adequately to do the tasks required of it.

    I agree with your assessment of the #tRump Administration but there is a limit to his political mandate which he will not be able to breach. Moreover, the #ChristoFascist experiment currently underway is not a totalitarian regime and cannot become one in the US because of the democratic ideals embedded in the fabric of its society and made law in its Constitution.

    I think I've addressed all the statements in your toot that I had issues with. I apologise for the length. Happy to dicsuss further, but not without making clear the assumptions behind any *statements*. If you wish to express an *opnion* on the other hand, that’s fine, we’ve all got those.

  3. Can Five Eyes Survive Trump?
    Insightful discussions into the behind the scenes of the strained alliance.

    The Five Eyes was a Cold War creation.
    In the age of #AUKUS, an FBI director that wants to host intelligence meetings on jet skis, UK suspending drug trafficking intelligence sharing with the US because of boat strikes it believes are illegal, commercial surveillance services ... is the alliance currently still relevant?

    podcasts.apple.com/ch/podcast/

  4. @AvonVilla
    Finally, you spoke the quiet parts aloud, you’re #antiWar and #antiMilitarist. Good, now I know were you’re coming from. I respect your opposition to what is a scourge on our species. I disagree with your line of argument, but I respect your view.

    I am not a warmonger nor a militarist either, but I am not a pacifist, nor reluctant to taking a life under very specific circumstances. I also know what it’s like being in uniform with less than optimal tools to do the assigned tasks — which in the worst case is terminal.

    #ADF #Defence #Deterence #AusPol #AUKUS

  5. @AvonVilla
    Hmmm. If you are serving or ever served in the ADF, you will know that Defence needs all that cash for a lot of needed personnel/equipment if those in uniforms are going to put their lives on the line when (not if) the shit hits the fan… so, I can’t agree with you there, not in the least.

    #ADF #AUKUS #AusPol

  6. @sister_ratched
    Hate to burst your bubble, but even if #AUKUS was somehow *cancelled*, it would absolutely not free up billions for NDIS. The AUKUS money comes out of the Defence budget over a period of 10 years. There is no separate AUKUS money per se, it’s all in the overall defence funding commitment sitting just above 2% of GDP.

    The only way to fund NDIS properly is through #TaxReform; increasing tax revenue by cutting out all fossil fuel subsidies and properly taxing #GasExports (like every other country does). There are other #taxChanges that need to be made to recover AUS$ that are making their way overseas taxfree as well (in the billions of $).

    Australia remains one of the few (might be the only one actually) OECD countries which is over-reliant on wage/salary taxes as revenue.

    #TaxTheRich #

  7. Baby Elephant Walk - Henry Mancini
    youtu.be/EbI2nl3Duf8 #music
    🎶See the big baboon beat on the bongo
    As the baby elephants advance
    Down in the Congo
    All the swinging monkeys do this dance🎶

    IS HE DEAD YET? If not, know he's feeling more abandoned by the hr.
    Fk #AUKUS- I'm over this timeline #Auspol

  8. 'It is quite wrong to say Australia and the US have an alignment of interests in the Indo-Pacific. Our economic interests are entirely different. In terms of strategic interests, as Varghese says, US primacy in the Indo-Pacific is not a core national interest for Australia'

    #aukus #ausPol #publicPolicy #rarotongaTreaty

    thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/d

  9. “The exact cost for 25-year-old Felix Lee, heir to a mysterious billion-dollar family fortune, to sit down to dinner with Anthony Albanese last month remains a tightly kept secret.
    Lee isn’t saying, and Labor will only confirm the amount is “drastically less” than the $1 million figure initially reported.”

    Do you ever wonder why the #housing, #gambling, #energy , #gas, #AUKUS government saga rolls on despite voter concern?

    Yeah, the MF take cash for policy, and throw in the odd choice changes 🤪🙁

    #AFR / #crime / #PayForAccess < afr.com/politics/federal/the-1> (paywall) / <archive.md/waJ9t>

  10. The money to pay for this year's #Budget increase in Defence spending is coming from cuts to funding for disability supports in the #NDIS.

    At the same time, government is still refusing to make fossil fuel exporters pay for what they mine from lands and waters stolen from First Nations people, and the destruction to Australia's biodiversity and contribution to global carbon emissions.

    Come to Monday's 12pm rally at Parliament in Canberra to fight against cutting the NDIS to pay for war machines and fossil fuel subsidies!

    Boosts for reach appreciated :blobcatheart:

    #auspol #actpol #AUKUS #ClimateCrisis #ClimateAction #peace #disability #Canberra

  11. Who will save us from the AUKUS debacle? Its perhaps dirtiest secret is to allow the USA to store nuclear intercontinental missiles at the Stirling WA naval base we are building, while nuclear-armed submarines rotate in and out. This makes us a certain target in the event of a war over Taiwan and contravenes our signed Treaty of Raratonga which keeps the Pacific nuclear-free. It also completes the USA’s military encirclement of China along with the bomber base near Darwin and the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean - whether or not we ever receive any of the nuclear submarines that headline the AUKUS ‘deal’. USA’s objective is to control the Straits of Malacca so it could strangle China’s imports of oil in a time of conflict, in a similar way that the Strait of Hormuz is being used by Iran. This would contravene the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which we have also signed. No wonder Scott Morrison sprang this boondoggle on us as a fait accompli. The very acronym is ugly, better expressed as ‘USUKA’. #auspol #uspol #AUKUS
    - Info taken from an eloquent article in today’s Saturday Paper by Jon Stanford.

  12. "Morrison’s strategic concept for AUKUS was deeply flawed. Reverting to Australia’s traditional trepidation in the face of a rising Asian power and fearful of abandonment by our anglophone great and powerful friends, he wrapped Australia in the anachronistic cloak of sub-imperial dependency. Seeking Australia’s security from Asia is simply not going to work. The commitments we are required to make to our non-resident allies antagonise our neighbours and we cannot rely on any other nation for our defence."

    #AUKUS #AusPol
    thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/d

  13. @andyjennings just think you wouldn’t have to worry about #aukus any more.

  14. Albo says "AUKUS is full steam ahead", and by that he means we're shovelling money onto the bin fire that is America. The steam comes much later, apparently

    #auspol #AUKUS

  15. @eddyjokovich
    Let’s face it, we know next to nothing about #AUKUS Tier One, and the little we know we garner from US and UK sources where the *paranoia* surrounding secret and top secret briefings isn’t as ingrained as it is at home — there are historical precedents behind this behaviour which can be teased out of the history of the UKUSA agreement). Hence much of what is written domestically in the press and open to the public about AUKUS is little better than hypothetical commentary (neither confirmed nor denied by govt or #RichardMarlesMP). Some commentary is a little better in that the guesses postulated therein have a grain of *probabilty* based on *educated guesses*. But they are few and sparse in details. That is the state of play where AUKUS is concerned and very unlikey to change in the future.

    Moreover, where more knowledgeable sources are commenting, they do so with an agenda, but their comments reflects their limited knowledge beyond broad issues, or are unable to be more specific due to the Official Secrets Act. Either way, what is available to the public, journalist and politically active commentators is next to nothing in the face of the most complex Defence procurement in the history of the ADF.

    Dear Eddy, I’ve written the above to keep my comment short by not addressing all of your talking points that I take issue with. Tbf, my 23 years in Defence does not make me an expert, but it ought to count for something in the public arena. Given my views above, I sympathise with commentators and journalists who feel obliged, and rightly so, to keep the AUKUS issue alive hoping for transparency and accountability by maintaining the *heat* in this public debate. It’s a healthy thing.

    msn.com/en-us/money/markets/th

    #AusPol #SSN #USprePositioning #HMASSterling #WA #PineGap #TindleRAAFBase #USMarineRotationsDarwin #UK #UKUSA #AustralianSovereignty #SubmarineShipyards #DefenceBudget #DefenceProcurement #ADF #AdelaideShipyards #SASubmarineCorporation #ASC #Barrow_in_Furness #HIIshipyards #GEElectricBoats

  16. Here we go again…Allan Behm (writing for the Australian Institute) serves up another word salad and take pockshots at… Australia’s adherence to the NPT via… well, everything submarine and US alliance with a limp lettuce. Or is it a swipe at Senator #Conroy ‘s interview performance on 7:30? You tell me, I couldn’t decide which.

    I might also note that the Virginia boats to be sold to Australia are capable of launching US Cruise missiles (Tomahawk and its latest nuclear capable incarnation) via torpoedo tubes (simple google search will reveal that much). Hence, so are current USN Virginia boats not just the new ones to be built — that makes the USN SSGN rotations in HMAS Stearling in 2032 the author references here irrelevent — we’d be hosting potentially nuclear armed SSN (from the US and potentially the UK) well before then… might already have.

    My opinion of the author’s writing craft is decidedly going on a slide into the bin. Read him if you must, just keep your wits about you and read him very carefully and have a think about it.

    Just in case my writing here attracts critical comments, in my defence, this is a toot, not an analysis, nor anything I’d consider ready for publication.

    #USN #US #SSN #SSGN #VirginiaBloc4 #AUKUS #NPT #NuclearWeapons #BasingFacilites #HostingNuclearCapabability #HMASSterling #B52Bombers #USMilitaryPrepositioning #ANZUS #ADF #SubmarinePlatforms #Defence #Deterrence #AusPol #AustralianSovereignty #AllanBehm #AustralianInstitute

  17. David Brat bound for Australia as diplomat confirmed as next US ambassador
    By Josh Taylor

    Former Republican state congressman, who once argued Christianity and capitalism should merge, confirmed by US Senate to fill long-vacant role

    theguardian.com/australia-news

    #Australianpolitics #Australianews #USnews #Laborparty #Aukus #AnthonyAlbanese #TheGuardian #JoshTaylor

  18. Good question @otte_homan
    I'd prefer some form of excise arrangement. Say, $1million for every US citizen, each time they arrive, each time they leave and for every year that they remain. Across all facilities on Australian territory. With similar charges for every Australian that the US wants to serve with or work for them.

    Could be a nice little earner. 😏
    #USpol #AusPol #AUKUS #sovereignty

  19. "Part of the AUKUS fantasy is that the massive delays and cost overruns that have marked submarine construction in the US and the UK will simply vanish, and both countries will start churning out boats to a timeline that makes AUKUS viable. Or, as it’s known in other contexts, doing something over and over and expecting different results."

    #AUKUS #AusPol
    crikey.com.au/2026/08/04/aukus