#al95 — Public Fediverse posts

See

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

For overall movement and development of the system in the past couple of hours.

#weather #GulfOfMexico #AL95 #TropicalDepression15

#weather #GulfOfMexico #Mexico #Guatemala #Belize #NHC #NOAA

#AL95 is now #TropicalDepression15, and retains potential to become #TropicalCyclone15. For now, likelihood of Tropical Storm winds, up to 34-35mph sustained.

Core remains as per last report. Organized, but not at TC level. Winds growing steadily stronger as it approaches coast.

System vortex has coalesced in the area near coast of Belize, Guatemala and Mexico.

Core of the storm should arrive Saturday mid day. Slow moving system at about 8-9mph, due West.

Good chance of NOT becoming a Tropical Cyclone, if it remains with present course, speed. Landfall and climbing onto continental shelf will drain some of the energy of the system.

See

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

#AL95 #NHC #NOAA #GulfOfMexico

#weather #GulfOfMexico #Guatemala #Mexico #NHC #NOAA

#AL95 has an increased chance (70%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.

Its core has become more defined, and the whole system is coalescing into a tropical storm, fast. A incipient vortex is manifesting, with a visually defined core, getting better organized by the hour.

Some of AL95's outer edge bands are reaching over #Cuba, and even into South #Florida and #Keys, bringing intermittent rain.

#weather #GulfofMexico #Caribbean #Atlantic #Guatemala #Mexico #NHC #NOAA #AL95

Each time you open this interactive #GIS map you will see the latest information for this storm. On Thursday this storm is expected to designated #HurricaneLee. By Sunday it is forecast to be a category 4 #hurricane.
#TropicalStormLee #AL95

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=24.170670,-56.599516&zoom=4&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=Forecast_error_cone,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position&data=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_weather.txt

Each time you open this interactive #GIS map you will see the latest information for this storm. On Thursday this storm is expected to designated #HurricaneLee. By Sunday it is forecast to be a category 4 #hurricane.
#TropicalStormLee #AL95

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=24.170670,-56.599516&zoom=4&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=Forecast_error_cone,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position&data=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_weather.txt

Each time you open this interactive #GIS map you will see the latest information for this storm. On Thursday this storm is expected to designated #HurricaneLee. By Sunday it is forecast to be a category 4 #hurricane.
#TropicalStormLee #AL95

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=24.170670,-56.599516&zoom=4&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=Forecast_error_cone,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position&data=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_weather.txt

Each time you open this interactive #GIS map you will see the latest information for this storm. On Thursday this storm is expected to designated #HurricaneLee. By Sunday it is forecast to be a category 4 #hurricane.
#TropicalStormLee #AL95

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=24.170670,-56.599516&zoom=4&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=Forecast_error_cone,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position&data=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_weather.txt

Each time you open this interactive #GIS map you will see the latest information for this storm. On Thursday this storm is expected to designated #HurricaneLee. By Sunday it is forecast to be a category 4 #hurricane.
#TropicalStormLee #AL95

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=24.170670,-56.599516&zoom=4&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=Forecast_error_cone,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position&data=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_weather.txt

Groan.

#AL95 #TD13

Groan.

#AL95 #TD13

Groan.

#AL95 #TD13

Groan.

#AL95 #TD13

Groan.

#AL95 #TD13

Hrm, Not good.

#AL95 became #TD13

Hrm, Not good.

#AL95 became #TD13

Hrm, Not good.

#AL95 became #TD13

Hrm, Not good.

#AL95 became #TD13

Hrm, Not good.

#AL95 became #TD13

Ugh

#AL95

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

SIGH

#AL95 tropical depression evolving to trop storm.

90% chance of evolving into Cyclone within 48hrs.

near-100% chance of evolving into Cyclone within week.

Can't catch a break.

#NOAA #NHC #Florida

#AL95 is already much better organized (shape of vortex and proto eye, see previous posts, last week) than #Idalia was, pre Cat1, when it was grazing W. Cuba.

Every time I look at it, I like it less.

#AL95 is already much better organized (shape of vortex and proto eye, see previous posts, last week) than #Idalia was, pre Cat1, when it was grazing W. Cuba.

Every time I look at it, I like it less.

#AL95 is already much better organized (shape of vortex and proto eye, see previous posts, last week) than #Idalia was, pre Cat1, when it was grazing W. Cuba.

Every time I look at it, I like it less.

#AL95 is already much better organized (shape of vortex and proto eye, see previous posts, last week) than #Idalia was, pre Cat1, when it was grazing W. Cuba.

Every time I look at it, I like it less.

#AL95 is already much better organized (shape of vortex and proto eye, see previous posts, last week) than #Idalia was, pre Cat1, when it was grazing W. Cuba.

Every time I look at it, I like it less.

#AL95, aka tracked TD1, projected to veer NW, after hitting N #Antilles, within week. It has a 90+% chance of developing into a Cyclone.

That would place it smack at the NE of PR, and tracking to hit #Bahamas... and SE Fla.

Or, even worse, depending on prevalent winds, it could go to the Florida Strait, between Cuba and Key West, and feed on the warmest waters in the Western hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico. Current which would return it NNW to... #Florida.

I no likee, one bit.