#selzer — Public Fediverse posts

Trump's lawsuit against Ann Selzer is textbook #authoritarianism

Reading the complaint in Donald Trump’s lawsuit against
pollster #Ann #Selzer
over her 2024 poll that found Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa,
it’s hard not to give in to thoughts of how comically obscene it is.

The suit stretches the interpretation of the relevant law
— Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act
— well past the breaking point.

It leans heavily on “facts” that are nothing but Trump quoting Trump about being mad.

It spends a good deal of time citing hard-right outlets like Breitbart as if they are neutral.

It’s hard not to laugh at how absurd it is.

-- But then you remember that ABC just gave Trump a total of $16 million rather than fight the paper-thin defamation lawsuit he brought against them.

And that even after ABC knuckled under, Trump still haslawsuits against CBS, Simon & Schuster, and CNN.

And then you also remember that Trump has stated he’s going to use all his might
— and that of the government
— to bury media he doesn’t like.

All of this makes trying to rationally assess whether the lawsuit will succeed nearly impossible.

Trump can afford to go scorched earth whether his claims have any merit or not.

He has bottomless wealth,
particularly regarding legal fees,
as he’s made his donors cover at least $100 million of them so far.

He’s utterly unconcerned about whether something is true,
and he seems to have a never-ending stream of lawyers willing to step up
even though several have ended up facing sanctions, criminal charges, or both.

Put simply, he has no incentive to back down, ever.

All that being said, the lawsuit against Selzer is still straight-up trash,
even if it’s trash that somehow manages to succeed because of the unique blend of horrible characteristics exclusive to Trump

https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-ann-selzer-lawsuit-explained?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Trump’s retribution may focus on individuals,
but it’s a collective harm
-- So it makes sense to spread the cost of dealing with it.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory and promised revenge tour,
a number of individuals have proposed the creation of an organization or fund
which would take on the job of defending the various lawsuits, prosecutions and generalized legal harassment Trump will bring to the table in the next four years.

It’s a very good idea.
It’s a necessary one.

So a few days ago I started reaching out to some people in the legal world and anti-Trump world to find out what’s going on,

whether any efforts are afoot and who is doing what.

What I found out is that there are at least a couple groups working toward doing something like this.

But the efforts seem embryonic.

Or at least I wasn’t able to find out too much.

The overnight news that Trump is now suing #Ann #Selzer and the #Des #Moines #Register over her final election poll for “election interference” makes me think that these efforts aren’t coming together soon enough
or can’t come together soon enough.

(If you’re not familiar with the details, Selzer is a pollster of almost legendary status
and in what turned out to be her final public poll, dramatically missed not only the result of the election but the whole direction of it.)

Let’s take the Selzer/Des Moines Register suit as our example.

Trump is claiming that he was damaged and should be made whole
because of a poll that showed him behind and turned out to be wrong.

His lawyers are trying to shoe-horn this claim into an Iowa consumer fraud statute.

But we shouldn’t be distracted by that.
The idea that a political candidate has a cause of action over a poll is absurd on its face.

And really that is precisely the point.

Trump casts penumbras of power and fear with talk; he holds public space; he keeps opponents off balance and guessing.

This is another example.

A lot of the power and point of such an exercise is precisely the absurdity of it.

It is meant to spur a chorus of “You can’t do that” and
“How can he do that?”

But he does do it.

We have that same mixture of outrage, incomprehension, uncanny laughter,
the upshot of which is an overwhelming and over-powering belief that the rules somehow don’t apply to this guy.

That’s his power and that is the point.

It is a performance art of power enabled by a shameless abuse of the legal system

Trump’s opponents need to learn to speak in that language.

Otherwise it’s a professional wrestling grudge match,
a taunt-fest with only one side taunting.

I fear some folks simply don’t get this dimension of what’s going on.

It’s not something you learn in law school and not in conventional, old-style politics either.

Defending the targets is key. But that’s not the only point or even the main one.

It’s about demonstrating the limits of Trump’s power and embarrassing him, President or not.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-big-pile-of-money-and-lawyering-to-defend-trumps-legal-targets

In the #Selzer poll, senior women went for Harris 63%-28%. Overall in the poll, #Iowa women chose #Harris 56%-36%.

Iowa's strict, 6-week #abortion ban certainly played a role.

In a 1973 post-Roe poll on abortion availability in Des Moines hospitals, #men were even more supportive than #women, and overall support was very high.

#reproductiverights #election2024 #trump #scotus #roevwade

#Selzer’s poll shows independent #women backing #Harris by 28pts, & women 65+ backing her by 2-1. Speaking to Tim Miller of The Bulwark, Selzer speculated about what might have driven these numbers. “It was over the summer that #Iowa’s 6-week ban on #abortion went into effect after all the court challenges were taken care of,” she said. Now, she said, people have been “living with it for a while.”

#law #RoeRage #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024

The poll may easily turn out to be wrong; #Selzer’s record is as good as anyone’s in the business, but it’s not perfect. Should #KamalaHarris win this #election, though, the poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer’s anomalous finding is simple: #women. If it’s anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women’s #fury over #abortion bans & their revulsion at #Trump’s cartoonishly macho campaign.

(#Trump ended up winning #Iowa by >9 points.) In 2020, her poll again showed Trump ahead by 7pts, which was both close to the final tally &, in retrospect, a sign that #Biden’s margins in neighboring states like #Wisconsin would be much thinner than other polls were indicating.

So many of us were anxious to see how big Trump’s lead would be this time, & the fact that #Selzer instead found him #losing came as a shock.

#women #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024

All day, #political nerds had been waiting for the results of #AnnSelzer’s famously accurate poll of #Iowa. The state hasn’t been swingy in a long time, but the #Selzer poll, conducted for The #DesMoinesRegister, can offer clues about broader trends in the electorate. In 2016, when many #Democrats were feeling complacent about a #HillaryClinton victory, her survey showing #Trump leading by 7pts in Iowa was an early indication of his underestimated strength in the Midwest.

#Women
#HarrisWalz2024

I just watched a YouTube channel that specifically exists to talk about elections and polling give unqualified praise to the #Selzer (#Iowa) track record, then list the flawless record of the polling.

Then he mentioned the “Harris +3” prediction and said, “now, Harris ISN’T going to win Iowa.”

I cannot tell you what the guy said after that because I switched off the video.

#Trump #Iowa #poll #Selzer
#election #politics

archive: https://dailymontanan.com/2023/12/14/donald-trump-celebrates-iowa-poll-lead-as-he-rallies-for-caucus-support/

Nur zur Erklärung 👆: Dieses Institut macht mit die besten Umfragen in den USA, 2016 hat es etwa deutlich gemacht, dass #HillaryClinton Probleme hat. Wenn die jüngste jetzt auch nur ansatzweise korrekt ist, dann wird es am Dienstag nicht einmal spannend. 🤞

#HarrisWalz2024 #USA #PresidentialElections #PresidentialElections2024 #Selzer #AnnSelzer #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Trump #Harris

Nur zur Erklärung 👆: Dieses Institut macht mit die besten Umfragen in den USA, 2016 hat es etwa deutlich gemacht, dass #HillaryClinton Probleme hat. Wenn die jüngste jetzt auch nur ansatzweise korrekt ist, dann wird es am Dienstag nicht einmal spannend. 🤞

#HarrisWalz2024 #USA #PresidentialElections #PresidentialElections2024 #Selzer #AnnSelzer #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Trump #Harris

Nur zur Erklärung 👆: Dieses Institut macht mit die besten Umfragen in den USA, 2016 hat es etwa deutlich gemacht, dass #HillaryClinton Probleme hat. Wenn die jüngste jetzt auch nur ansatzweise korrekt ist, dann wird es am Dienstag nicht einmal spannend. 🤞

#HarrisWalz2024 #USA #PresidentialElections #PresidentialElections2024 #Selzer #AnnSelzer #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Trump #Harris

Nur zur Erklärung 👆: Dieses Institut macht mit die besten Umfragen in den USA, 2016 hat es etwa deutlich gemacht, dass #HillaryClinton Probleme hat. Wenn die jüngste jetzt auch nur ansatzweise korrekt ist, dann wird es am Dienstag nicht einmal spannend. 🤞

#HarrisWalz2024 #USA #PresidentialElections #PresidentialElections2024 #Selzer #AnnSelzer #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Trump #Harris

Nur zur Erklärung 👆: Dieses Institut macht mit die besten Umfragen in den USA, 2016 hat es etwa deutlich gemacht, dass #HillaryClinton Probleme hat. Wenn die jüngste jetzt auch nur ansatzweise korrekt ist, dann wird es am Dienstag nicht einmal spannend. 🤞

#HarrisWalz2024 #USA #PresidentialElections #PresidentialElections2024 #Selzer #AnnSelzer #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Trump #Harris

Zur Umfrage in Iowa, in der Kamala Harris 3 Prozentpunkte vor Trump liegt: Sie konnte laut dieser Umfrage von Selzer & Co. (Ann Selzer) Trump überholen, weil sie in den letzten Wochen noch mehr Frauen überzeugen konnte.

In Iowa trat übrigens Ende Juli ein drakonisches Abtreibungsgesetz in Kraft.

Befragt wurden 808 "likely voters" in Iowa, 28. bis 31. Oktober, Schwankungsbreite 3,4 Prozentpunkte

https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/11/02/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-in-final-iowa-poll-before-2024-election/
https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/07/29/iowas-six-week-abortion-ban-takes-effect-monday/

#Iowa #KamalaHarris #Selzer

AltText: 2 gegenübergestellte Fotos: 1x Kamala Harris und 1x Donald Trump, während sie jeweils gerade eine Rede halten

✊🏼 #Iowa Poll: #KamalaHarris leapfrogs #DonaldTrump to take lead near Election Day. The nationally recognized Iowa #Poll shows Kamala #Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald #Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice #Selzer #USA eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/p...

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapf...

✊👵

The nationally recognized #IowaPoll shows #KamalaHarris picking up support from women to surpass #DonaldTrump in a ruby-red state he has won twice''

Democrat Kamala #Harris leads Donald #Trump in #Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The #poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

✊👵

The nationally recognized #IowaPoll shows #KamalaHarris picking up support from women to surpass #DonaldTrump in a ruby-red state he has won twice''

Democrat Kamala #Harris leads Donald #Trump in #Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The #poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

✊👵

The nationally recognized #IowaPoll shows #KamalaHarris picking up support from women to surpass #DonaldTrump in a ruby-red state he has won twice''

Democrat Kamala #Harris leads Donald #Trump in #Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The #poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

✊👵

The nationally recognized #IowaPoll shows #KamalaHarris picking up support from women to surpass #DonaldTrump in a ruby-red state he has won twice''

Democrat Kamala #Harris leads Donald #Trump in #Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The #poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

✊👵

The nationally recognized #IowaPoll shows #KamalaHarris picking up support from women to surpass #DonaldTrump in a ruby-red state he has won twice''

Democrat Kamala #Harris leads Donald #Trump in #Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The #poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

The historically most accurate pollster in the United States is Ann Selzer. She only does polls in one state - Iowa, typically a very Republican state. For the last two elections her polls were outliers that turned out to be correct, showing that Trump's support was far stronger than expected in 2016 and Biden wasn't going to run away with it in 2020.

She just put out her final poll of the election showing Kamala Harris up by 3 points... in Iowa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTU0ZWFNmzs

#Election2024 #2024Election #Trump #DonaldTrump #JDVance #uspol #uspolitics #politics #Kamala2024 #KamalaHarris #GOP #MAGA #MAGAts #Vote #Republicans #RVAT #Democrats #HarrisWalz2024 #VoteBlue #HarrisForPresident #HarrisWalz #VoteHarris #Iowa #AnnSelzer #Polls #Poll #Selzer