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SENEDD ELECTION: First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales

The First Minister of Wales is on course to lose her seat at Thursday’s Senedd election, according to the final major poll of the campaign – capping what would be the worst result in Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of devolved and Westminster politics in Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, published on Tuesday evening, projects Plaid Cymru taking four of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro – the new constituency where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate. Reform UK take the remaining two. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all return zero MSs from Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the projection.

Across south-west Wales as a whole, the picture is similarly stark for Welsh Labour. Of the 36 Senedd seats spread across the six new constituencies covering Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, the Rhondda, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour is projected to win just four.

ConstituencyPlaidReformLabourConservativeLib DemGŵyr Abertawe32100Sir Gaerfyrddin33000Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd22101Afan Ogwr Rhondda23100Ceredigion Penfro42000Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg22110Total (36 seats)1614411Projected seats by party across the six new Senedd constituencies covering south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Plaid Cymru is projected to take three seats, Reform UK two and Labour one. Plaid lead candidates Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies would be elected, alongside Reform’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway. Long-serving Swansea East Senedd Member Mike Hedges, who tops the Labour list, would be returned – but Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, ranked second, would not, leaving him to continue as council leader.

The picture is bleaker for Labour in Sir Gaerfyrddin. ITV Wales’ constituency analysis projects Plaid Cymru on 42% and Reform UK on 33%, with each party taking three seats. Plaid’s Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and former party leader Adam Price would all be elected. Labour’s Calum Higgins, who narrowly held the sixth seat in last month’s MRP, is wiped out – meaning the whole of Carmarthenshire returns no Labour Senedd Member for the first time since devolution.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, covering Neath, Swansea East, the Swansea Valley and south Powys, the seats split four ways: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holds her seat – the only Lib Dem MS projected anywhere in Wales. Plaid’s Sioned Williams would also return, while Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha would take the single Labour seat.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Reform UK is projected to win three seats – its strongest projected performance anywhere in south-west Wales. Plaid take two and Labour one. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who tops the Labour list, would survive – but sitting Labour MSs Buffy Williams (Rhondda) and David Rees (Aberavon, currently the Senedd’s Deputy Presiding Officer), would both lose their seats.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, the seats split between Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1 and Conservative 1. Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, who heads his party’s list, would return to the Senedd.

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones leads the list and would return to the Senedd alongside three other Plaid candidates. First Minister Eluned Morgan, Labour’s lead candidate in the constituency, is projected to lose her seat.

ConstituencyProjected to be electedProjected to lose seatGŵyr AbertaweMike Hedges (Lab)–Sir GaerfyrddinCefin Campbell (PC), Adam Price (PC)–Brycheiniog Tawe NeddJane Dodds (LD), Sioned Williams (PC)–Afan Ogwr RhonddaHuw Irranca-Davies (Lab)Buffy Williams (Lab), David Rees (Lab)Ceredigion PenfroElin Jones (PC)Eluned Morgan (Lab)Pen-y-bont Bro MorgannwgAndrew RT Davies (Con)–Sitting MSs whose fates are determined by the projection across south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Nationally, the YouGov MRP puts Plaid Cymru on 33% (up four points from the previous YouGov poll), Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

PartyVote shareChangeProjected seatsChangePlaid Cymru33%+443+7Reform UK29%no change34-3Welsh Labour12%-112no changeWelsh Conservatives9%+14+1Wales Green Party8%-22-5Welsh Liberal Democrats6%no change1no changeNational vote share and projected Senedd seats from the final YouGov MRP. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Plaid would be six seats short of the 49 needed for an overall majority in the 96-member Senedd. The arithmetic of forming a government becomes the central question after Thursday. Every viable combination to reach 49 seats requires Labour’s involvement – either in formal coalition or by abstaining on a confidence vote.

CombinationTotal seatsMajority of 49?Plaid Cymru + Labour55Yes (+6)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Liberal Democrats56Yes (+7)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Greens57Yes (+8)Plaid Cymru + Greens + Liberal Democrats46No (-3)Plaid Cymru alone43No (-6)Reform UK + Conservatives38No (-11)Reform UK alone34No (-15)Possible routes to a 49-seat majority in the 96-member Senedd, based on the final YouGov MRP projection. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, who carried out the seat modelling, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was now “fairly clear” but that small swings could still produce significantly different totals. “Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33 percent with Reform on 29,” he said. “Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.”

The poll also asked respondents what was the single biggest factor influencing their vote. “Stopping Reform” was the top answer at 14%, followed by immigration at 10% – despite immigration being a matter reserved to Westminster rather than devolved to the Senedd. The motivation to stop Reform skewed sharply towards younger voters, with 27% of 16-to-24-year-olds citing it compared to just 6% of those aged 65 and over.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm. It is the first Senedd election to be held under the new closed-list proportional representation system, with each of the 16 new constituencies returning six Senedd Members.

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