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SENEDD ELECTION: First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales

The First Minister of Wales is on course to lose her seat at Thursday’s Senedd election, according to the final major poll of the campaign – capping what would be the worst result in Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of devolved and Westminster politics in Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, published on Tuesday evening, projects Plaid Cymru taking four of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro – the new constituency where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate. Reform UK take the remaining two. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all return zero MSs from Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the projection.

Across south-west Wales as a whole, the picture is similarly stark for Welsh Labour. Of the 36 Senedd seats spread across the six new constituencies covering Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, the Rhondda, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour is projected to win just four.

ConstituencyPlaidReformLabourConservativeLib DemGŵyr Abertawe32100Sir Gaerfyrddin33000Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd22101Afan Ogwr Rhondda23100Ceredigion Penfro42000Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg22110Total (36 seats)1614411Projected seats by party across the six new Senedd constituencies covering south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Plaid Cymru is projected to take three seats, Reform UK two and Labour one. Plaid lead candidates Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies would be elected, alongside Reform’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway. Long-serving Swansea East Senedd Member Mike Hedges, who tops the Labour list, would be returned – but Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, ranked second, would not, leaving him to continue as council leader.

The picture is bleaker for Labour in Sir Gaerfyrddin. ITV Wales’ constituency analysis projects Plaid Cymru on 42% and Reform UK on 33%, with each party taking three seats. Plaid’s Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and former party leader Adam Price would all be elected. Labour’s Calum Higgins, who narrowly held the sixth seat in last month’s MRP, is wiped out – meaning the whole of Carmarthenshire returns no Labour Senedd Member for the first time since devolution.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, covering Neath, Swansea East, the Swansea Valley and south Powys, the seats split four ways: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holds her seat – the only Lib Dem MS projected anywhere in Wales. Plaid’s Sioned Williams would also return, while Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha would take the single Labour seat.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Reform UK is projected to win three seats – its strongest projected performance anywhere in south-west Wales. Plaid take two and Labour one. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who tops the Labour list, would survive – but sitting Labour MSs Buffy Williams (Rhondda) and David Rees (Aberavon, currently the Senedd’s Deputy Presiding Officer), would both lose their seats.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, the seats split between Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1 and Conservative 1. Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, who heads his party’s list, would return to the Senedd.

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones leads the list and would return to the Senedd alongside three other Plaid candidates. First Minister Eluned Morgan, Labour’s lead candidate in the constituency, is projected to lose her seat.

ConstituencyProjected to be electedProjected to lose seatGŵyr AbertaweMike Hedges (Lab)–Sir GaerfyrddinCefin Campbell (PC), Adam Price (PC)–Brycheiniog Tawe NeddJane Dodds (LD), Sioned Williams (PC)–Afan Ogwr RhonddaHuw Irranca-Davies (Lab)Buffy Williams (Lab), David Rees (Lab)Ceredigion PenfroElin Jones (PC)Eluned Morgan (Lab)Pen-y-bont Bro MorgannwgAndrew RT Davies (Con)–Sitting MSs whose fates are determined by the projection across south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Nationally, the YouGov MRP puts Plaid Cymru on 33% (up four points from the previous YouGov poll), Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

PartyVote shareChangeProjected seatsChangePlaid Cymru33%+443+7Reform UK29%no change34-3Welsh Labour12%-112no changeWelsh Conservatives9%+14+1Wales Green Party8%-22-5Welsh Liberal Democrats6%no change1no changeNational vote share and projected Senedd seats from the final YouGov MRP. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Plaid would be six seats short of the 49 needed for an overall majority in the 96-member Senedd. The arithmetic of forming a government becomes the central question after Thursday. Every viable combination to reach 49 seats requires Labour’s involvement – either in formal coalition or by abstaining on a confidence vote.

CombinationTotal seatsMajority of 49?Plaid Cymru + Labour55Yes (+6)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Liberal Democrats56Yes (+7)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Greens57Yes (+8)Plaid Cymru + Greens + Liberal Democrats46No (-3)Plaid Cymru alone43No (-6)Reform UK + Conservatives38No (-11)Reform UK alone34No (-15)Possible routes to a 49-seat majority in the 96-member Senedd, based on the final YouGov MRP projection. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, who carried out the seat modelling, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was now “fairly clear” but that small swings could still produce significantly different totals. “Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33 percent with Reform on 29,” he said. “Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.”

The poll also asked respondents what was the single biggest factor influencing their vote. “Stopping Reform” was the top answer at 14%, followed by immigration at 10% – despite immigration being a matter reserved to Westminster rather than devolved to the Senedd. The motivation to stop Reform skewed sharply towards younger voters, with 27% of 16-to-24-year-olds citing it compared to just 6% of those aged 65 and over.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm. It is the first Senedd election to be held under the new closed-list proportional representation system, with each of the 16 new constituencies returning six Senedd Members.

#ElunedMorganMS #JaneDoddsMS #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #SeneddElection2026 #WelshLabour #YouGov

Uplands councillors join Liberal Democrats as former party leader hits back

Councillors Sandra Joy and Allan Jeffery, who were elected as Uplands Party candidates in 2022 before becoming Independents last year, have now joined the Liberal Democrats. The party announced the move as a boost ahead of the Senedd elections in May, saying it strengthens their position in Swansea.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS welcomed the pair, stating: “Sandra and Allan are exactly the kind of councillors communities want representing them. Rooted in their area, working hard for residents and not afraid to speak up when something was not right.”

She added that with services stretched and communities feeling taken for granted, “Only the Liberal Democrats can beat Labour, stop Reform and deliver for Swansea.”

Councillor Sandra Joy said joining the Liberal Democrats felt like the right step, stating that she and Allan Jeffery were “still the same people who would speak their minds and fight for Uplands every day, but now as part of a growing team ready to take the city in a better direction.”

However, the move has been strongly criticised by Uplands Party leader, Cllr Peter May, who provided additional context on the defections.

In a statement to Swansea Bay News, Cllr May pointed out this was the councillors’ second defection. He also revealed that Cllr Sandra Joy had moved out of the Uplands Ward to Sketty in June 2025, making her ineligible to continue as an Uplands Party councillor.

“She is seeking to run in Sketty ward in the council elections in 2027 which is presently held by the Liberal Democrats,” Cllr May said.

He also highlighted Cllr Allan Jeffery’s past electoral performance. “Allan Jeffery ran unsuccessfully in the Uplands ward as a Liberal Democrat in 2017. He polled 366 votes and finished 12th out of 18 candidates,” Cllr May stated.

“In 2022 he ran as an Uplands Party candidate and was successfully elected securing 1641 votes and finished 4th out of the 4 elected councillors. If he is running as a returning Liberal Democrat in 2027, I look forward to the contest.”

The Liberal Democrats now hold 13 of the 75 seats on Swansea Council.

#CllrAllanJeffery #CllrPeterMay #CllrSandraJoy #JaneDoddsMS #PeterMay #SwanseaCouncil #Uplands #UplandsParty #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Banking lifeline finally opens in Ystradgynlais after three‑year fight

After years without a single bank on the high street, Ystradgynlais residents can at last walk through the doors of a permanent banking hub. The new facility on Commercial Street is the result of a dogged three‑year campaign that saw locals, businesses and community leaders refuse to take “no” for an answer.

The town was left high and dry in 2023 when Lloyds shut its branch despite posting record profits. Public meetings followed, petitions were signed, and applications were lodged with LINK — the body that decides where hubs go. The first bid was rejected, but campaigners pushed back, challenging the data and dragging regulators to Ystradgynlais to see the need for themselves.

That persistence paid off. A temporary hub opened in May, and now a permanent site has been unveiled at 14 Commercial Street, SA9 1HD.

How the hub will serve the town

After years of being left without a single counter service, locals can now walk into the new Commercial Street hub and deal with real people again. Doors are open Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm, with different banks taking turns to staff the desks.

• Mondays bring Barclays back to town, giving customers face‑to‑face access that vanished when branches closed.
• Tuesdays are still waiting for a banker to be confirmed, but campaigners say it’s only a matter of time before another name is added.
• Midweek sees Lloyds return on Wednesdays, a striking turnaround after the bank pulled out of Ystradgynlais in 2023.
• HSBC takes the Thursday slot, offering services to residents who once had to travel miles for help.
• Fridays finish with Halifax on hand, rounding off the week with another big name back on the high street.

Victory after years of pressure

The fight to bring banking back to Ystradgynlais wasn’t easy. Applications were rejected, data was disputed, and regulators had to be shown around the town to see the need first‑hand.

At the opening, local MP David Chadwick called it “fantastic news for Ystradgynlais” and reflected on the long road to success:

“After months of pressure, rejected applications and persistent campaigning, including personally showing the Banking Hub regulator around our vibrant town, I’m delighted we’ve secured a permanent, long‑term hub on Commercial Street.

“I launched this campaign to make sure communities like Ystradgynlais and the surrounding area aren’t cut off from essential services.

“Securing a permanent Banking Hub is a major step in ensuring our towns remain supported, connected and able to thrive.

“I will continue pushing to ensure that facilities like this remain protected and that no community in our area is left behind.”

Senedd Member Jane Dodds also welcomed the news, adding:

“Access to banking is not a luxury; it is a necessity, particularly for older residents, small businesses, and those who rely on cash. This hub will make a real and lasting difference.”

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Lloyds Bank to close Ammanford and Gorseinon branches in 2026
Closures reignite calls for more banking hubs across South Wales.

New banking hub confirmed for Gorseinon
Shared counter services and community bankers return after branch closures.

Temporary banking hub opens in Ystradgynlais
First step in restoring services before today’s permanent hub launch.

More stories from Ystradgynlais →
Browse the latest news and features from the town.

#bank #BankingHub #DavidChadwickMP #JaneDoddsMS #WelshLiberalDemocrats #Ystradgynlais #YstradgynlaisBankingHub

Fifth daily train to run on Heart of Wales line from December

From 14 December, passengers travelling between Swansea and Shrewsbury via the Heart of Wales line will have access to a fifth daily train.

Transport for Wales is adding a new midday service in both directions, increasing the number of trains from four to five per day. The Heart of Wales line runs through Llanelli, Llandeilo, Llandrindod Wells and Knighton, connecting rural towns with Swansea and Shrewsbury.

The change is part of the UK-wide December rail timetable update. Journey planners have already been updated, and passengers can now check times for travel after 14 December.

Passengers at a busy station on the Wales and Borders network. The new timetable will add flexibility for travellers across the region.
(Image: TfW)

Funding and political agreement

The extra service is being funded through the Welsh Government’s 2025–26 Budget deal with Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds.

In a statement, Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales Ken Skates said:

“The Heart of Wales line provides a spectacular and scenic journey for tourists but is also a vital link for rural communities in Mid Wales, so this will be welcome news for residents and visitors alike.”

“Railway connections are vital in driving prosperity. These changes will make a real difference to customers, who will benefit from more services across Wales and the Borders.”

“This has been made possible by our £800m investment in brand-new trains for the Wales and Borders network.”

Transport for Wales said the new service would give passengers more flexibility for day trips and essential journeys, and help support the local tourism economy.

What it means for passengers

The new train will run midday every day, giving people more choice when planning journeys.

Passengers are being advised to check journey planners for travel after 14 December to see the updated timetable.

#additionalTrains #heartOfWales #janeDoddsMs #kenSkatesMs #llandeilo #llanelli #swansea #trains #transportForWales #welshGovernment