#extremeprecipitation — Public Fediverse posts

🌍 Pushing #ClimateModeling to the Next Level

What happens when you run global climate #simulations at the kilometre scale for multiple years

In our latest blog post, we share insights from a landmark #nextGEMS study using ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System coupled to high-resolution ocean–sea ice models.

These simulations capture fine-scale processes—from mesoscale #OceanEddies to #UrbanHeat patterns—that coarser models can’t resolve, offering a more realistic picture of our climate system. Along the way, the team tackled key challenges, from water and #EnergyConservation to improving the simulation of #ExtremePrecipitation and polar sea ice leads.

💡 The results point towards more accurate, actionable climate information—but also highlight the huge computational demands of this frontier.

📖 Read the blog post on our website and comment below to get the link to the original publication by Thomas Rackow et al., 2025.

#H2020 #HighResolutionModels #EarthSystemScience #StormResolvingModels

@ECMWF
@cinea_EU

Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century

Wenxia Zhang, Tianjun Zhou , and Peili Wu

25 Jul 2024

Abstract
"As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases #ExtremePrecipitation. #Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show that precipitation variability has already grown globally (over 75% of land area) over the past century, as a result of accumulated #anthropogenic warming. The increased variability is seen across daily to intraseasonal timescales, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Increased precipitation variability is driven mainly by thermodynamics linked to atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales by circulation changes. Amplified precipitation variability poses new challenges for weather and climate predictions, as well as for resilience and adaptation by societies and #ecosystems."

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp0212

#ExtremeWx #Drought #UnpredictableWeather #ExtremeRains #Flooding
#ClimateCatastrophe #GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Resiliency #ClimateAction #ClimateActionNow