#preciselyincorrect — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #preciselyincorrect, aggregated by home.social.
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On #PreciselyIncorrect quantification in ecological economics, a key criticism in [1] "is not that we always need high-precision in our economic analyses. Rather, that it is wrong to manipulate the uncertainties in information and conclusions in such a way that recommendations turn out to be far more certain than could possibly be justified scientifically"
A core point deals instead with quality: "uncertainties to be managed for the achievement of the best possible quality of information"
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[1] Saltelli, A., 2023. What is post-normal science? A personal encounter. Foundations of Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10699-023-09932-x
[2] Breznau, N., Rinke, E.M., Wuttke, A., et al., 2022. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (44), e2203150119+. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119
#DOI #PostNormalScience #complexity #uncertainty #preregistration #reproducibility #PreciselyIncorrect
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[2] Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., et al., 2007. Coupled human and natural systems. AMBIO 36, 639–649. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[639:CHANS]2.0.CO;2
[3] Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., et al., 2007. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317, 1513–1516. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144004
(Available free access versions:
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=9748014925464765351
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=4395469514804190369 )
#DOI #CoupledHumanAndNaturalSystems #DeepUncertainty #PreciselyIncorrect #complexity #SciencePolicyInterface
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"Coupled human and natural systems are experiencing unprecedented rapid changes and progressively tighter couplings at multiple scales"
They "challenge traditional #planning and #management assumptions and strategies for #NaturalResources and the #environment. By and large, most #policies in place today will not lead to #sustainable outcomes" [2]
"success or failure of many policies and management practices is based on their ability" to address complexity
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On the myth of an unreasonably precise #ReturnPeriod in #CoupledHumanAndNaturalSystems (CHANS) under the #ClimateChange and highly uncertain #TippingPoints "when earth systems suddenly tip into alternate semisteady states" [1]
"common #CognitiveBiases complicate the understanding of #probability [...] For instance, when lacking or considering historical data, people tend to base their estimations of probability on what they have recently experienced" [1]