#paranormal-belief — Public Fediverse posts

UK survey respondents love earth mysteries

New poll results about paranormal belief in the UK show that “earth mysteries” are really popular across the pond. US surveys don’t ask about these beliefs, so we can’t compare. That is just one of many complications that make it difficult to make sense out of poll numbers reflecting levels of paranormal beliefs over time.

Over the years, I’ve tracked belief in paranormal concepts, mostly in the US. It’s been interesting to see people claim that belief has increased, because it’s very much more complicated than that. Factors that increase or decrease not only belief, but social acceptance of those beliefs, are many and various. Media certainly has something to do with it, as well as a rejection of traditional religious practices. Several studies have found a correlation with between religion and the paranormal.

Yearly surveys are common, but not all are good. You can read about difficulties with belief surveys here:

https://sharonahill.com/ghost-belief-in-the-us-varies-widely-by-year-and-source/

I have updated my tracking table regarding ghost belief to include the one report I found for 2024. It’s fun to look at and ponder but is it really useful? I don’t know.

DO YOU BELIEVE IN GHOSTS?
Yearly polling resultsYearSource% belief in ghosts2003Harris512005Gallup322007Baylor-Religion492008Harris442008Ipsos.McClatchy572009Pew 18 *2009Harris332010Harris512010Gallup562011YouGov362012YouGov/Huff. Post452013Harris422016Chapman472017Chapman522017YouGov452018Chapman582019YouGov452021YouGov412021Statista362023NORC502023RealClear612024Civic Science41* This is an anomalous result, but is not altogether inconsistent with the other result from that year at 33%.

A new paper came out measuring belief in paranormal concepts in the UK.[1] It’s not surprising that there would be a difference in popularity of certain beliefs between the US and UK. For example, I would guess that the US population has a higher percentage of belief in UFOs and Bigfoot, but I should not assume because these polls are always tricky to interpret and not reliable. From the abstract:

The study makes four contributions to research on the paranormal by a) reiterating the continuing popularity of paranormal beliefs, even in highly secularized locations, with over 70% of people in the United Kingdom believing in something paranormal; b) demonstrating that these beliefs are differentiated across contexts where they might otherwise be assumed to be similar; c) demonstrating the applicability of social control and bounded affinity theories for explaining belief in the paranormal;
and, d) documenting how conventional religiosity relates to paranormalism in a relatively secular cultural context. These findings highlight the need for further research on diffuse forms of supernaturalism
and the potential for such studies to contribute to important questions about theory and research in sociology.

The 70% may be surprising at first, however, it is similar to the U.S. When you give an array of people a list of many choices, they likely will favor at least a few.

You can read the entire paper here. Let’s look at the top beliefs that showed up in this survey.

The highest levels of belief were reported for issues related to earth mysteries, with belief in dowsing (45.6%) and ley lines (41.5%) registering the highest affirmative responses. Beyond this, the highest levels of belief were reported for black magic (36.3%), hauntings (35.9%), mysterious creatures (32.9%), and curses (30.0%). The lowest levels of belief were reported for belief in Bigfoot (14.8%), the U.K. Wildman (14.8%), and fairies (15.4%).

Dowsing and ley lines! I have thoughts. Obviously, earth mysteries relates to my interest in spooky geology. I have first-hand experience in seeing how attached people are to their belief in dowsing. I have also seen the increased mention of ley lines in paranormal contexts. Currently, reports of spook lights or encounters with mysterious balls of light (BOL) are increasing, particularly related to cryptids. The association with “window areas” and, in turn, a connection to earth energies, is a given.

Belief in dowsing and ley lines might be less in the US because, at least for leys, the concept began in the UK and is more tied to their history and heritage. However, I don’t recall either of these being an option in US surveys. That is unsurprising as you have to limit your choices and such surveys already include a pretty long list related to cryptids, ghosts, aliens, Atlantis, psi, etc. So I do wonder what the comparison would really be regarding dowsing and leys in the US vs UK, especially considering the rising media inclusion of BOL and high strangeness areas.

I’m unclear why this these two options were included in this recent UK survey. I haven’t seen their inclusion before. In the past surveys (done by Baker and Bader) the focus was more on fears, but included paranormal beliefs such as ancient civilizations and telekinesis. “Black magic” was framed as demons or the devil. It’s similar but may not be interpreted the same way by respondents. As always, the phrasing of questions is always a problem. Notice the phrasing in this survey (with the percentage of “belief” shown):

• Dowsing can be used to detect water, minerals and other elements 46.5
• Lines of energy, sometimes called “ley lines,” connect ancient structures 41.5
• Black Magic exists 36.3
• Places can be haunted by spirits 35.9
• Mysterious creatures, previously thought extinct, still inhabit this world 32.9
• Curses can be used to inflict harm or punishment on someone 30.0
• The ancient, advanced civilization of Atlantis, once existed 26.3
• Aliens have visited the Earth in our ancient past 25.6
• Some crop circles are created by non-human forces or energies 25.4
• Alien Big Cats (ABCs) roam the British countryside 21.6
• Aliens have come to Earth in modern times 21.6
• Some people can move objects with their minds (telekinesis) 19.5
• The Loch Ness Monster exists 19.5
• Fortune tellers and psychics can foresee the future 18.9
• The Abominable Snowman exists 15.9
• Fairies have the power to influence the human world 15.4
• Bigfoot is a real creature 14.8
• The U.K. Wildman, sometimes known as “the British Bigfoot,” exists 14.8
• Believe in at least one item above 78.3
• Believe in at least one item above (excluding earth mysteries) 71.5

I could critique the phrasing on almost all of them for some reason. Just a one word change may prompt a different answer. Example: “Mysterious creatures, previously thought extinct, still inhabit this world”. What does that even mean? Ivory billed woodpeckers? Dinosaurs? It’s a terrible phrasing structure, but you have to do some lumping to be as comprehensive as possible. The ley lines question puts them in context of connecting ancient structures but also loops in “lines of energy”. This conflates multiple ideas about leys.

Similarly, those who respond to these questions may not have a full understanding of what is being described. Many people mistakenly think that dowsing has some strange, but scientific, basis. As with ley lines, the idea of “energy” from the earth may suggest that there is some natural component at work that we haven’t yet discovered. Those kinds of belief may seem less paranormal than aliens, curses, or magic. Typically, higher education is correlated with lower levels of belief, but not in all concepts. This complexity shows how difficult it is to parse out why people believe weird things.

In conclusion, while I find these surveys interesting, there is a lot going on in the background and interpretations are context-dependent, which renders the percentages suspect. I’m beginning to question if we can make any kinds of concrete assumptions from them. The latest study concludes that the researchers are hopeful that “social scientists will further explore this interesting and consequential form of culture, across a wider range of social contexts.” I agree with this – paranormal beliefs are an important part of our culture and need to be recognized as such – but I would prefer a careful approach. Reported high percentages of belief in the paranormal sure are interesting, but is not something to fret about. It has always been, and always will be present.

———-

1. Tom Clark, Joseph O. Baker & Christopher D. Bader (10 Feb 2025): Marginalized, Secularized, and Popularized? The Prevalence and Patterns of Paranormal Belief in the United Kingdom, The Sociological Quarterly, DOI: 10.1080/00380253.2025.2461298

#beliefInGhosts #dowsing #earthMysteries #Ghosts #leyLines #paranormalBelief #problemWithSurveys #surveyOfParanormalBelief #UK

https://sharonahill.com/?p=9466

Vatican releases Supernatural Standard Operating Procedures

The Vatican publicly shared, on May 17, 2024, their revised standard operating procedures regarding claims of religious supernatural phenomena. The document includes an introduction and a set of rules or actions on how to investigate and conclude an incident of reported supernatural phenomena. It’s interesting reading if you can handle religious legalese. The document reveals that the Catholic Holy Office has the same internal administrative issues as all offices – managing work load, efficiency, decision-making, and public relations.

Vatican releases new norms on alleged supernatural phenomena
The Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith releases a document detailing new norms regarding cases of reported supernatural phenomena. As a rule, neither the local bishop nor the Holy See will declare that these phenomena are of supernatural origin, but will only authorize and promote devotion and pilgrimages. Document (English) Accompanying Press Release

In the Norms for Proceeding in the Discernment of Alleged Supernatural Phenomena, we are told that supernatural events are sometimes legitimate (which is debatable in the larger context, but I’ll overlook that for now) and are important for growth in faith and devotion. They use the word “fruits” to mean such outcomes. We are also assured that God’s ways are secret and ultimately unknowable. And, since he created nature, he can work in supernatural ways if he wants to.

However, not all reported supernatural events are legitimate. The church is well-aware. More so today, but really, throughout history, claims of miracles have been used for “profit, power, fame, social recognition, or other personal interest”. Or worse. Also, the church notes people make mistakes in interpreting events or are misled by others.

Direction is needed for modern times

Church leaders are charged with guiding the faithful in thinking about these events, which is ever more difficult in the modern age of instant mass (mis)communication.

It appears the process of revising the 1978 Norms began in 2019. Earlier this month, the final version was approved by the Pope. The norms provide what looks to many of us administrative workers as a standard operating procedure, except this one is about investigating and handling situations where “supernatural occurrences” are reported. The faithful need guidance on whether to disregard it as a hoax or to hit the road on a holy pilgrimage.

Our Lady of Ocotlan, Tlaxcala, Mexico 1541

According to the church doctrine, the Holy Spirit may reach us through supernatural means such as apparitions or visions of Jesus or Mary, written messages or voices, phenomena related to religious items (weeping and bleeding objects, and the like), and psychophysical phenomena (levitation, stigmata, etc.). They recognize, however, that mistakes can be made in interpretation or that there might be outright fraud at work. Reading a bit between the lines, it seems like the church may have had an issue with Bishops of local Dioceses declaring a phenomenal event as being of divine origin and promoting it. We have certainly seen examples of supposed miracles drawing thousands to see for themselves. The church also recognizes that in the modern world, news travels very fast. Nothing extraordinary stays local and things can rapidly get out of hand.

The Catholic faithful may look to the church for clarity about these alleged events. In the Intro to the Norms document, the Prefect makes clear that the church wishes to avoid “such complicating situations” that create “confusion among the faithful”. Additionally, it’s no surprise that the work relating to investigation of supernatural events is long, taxing and controversial. If you are going to declare something a supernatural divine action, you better have put all your ducks in a row.

Sidesteps a declaration of “supernatural”

The old process of waiting for a declaration about the supernatural nature of the event took too long, and “resulted in very few cases ever reaching a clear determination.” The introduction text says that since 1950, “no more than six cases have been officially resolved”. The claims have only increased in number; the process was not working. In the example given, regarding a case of apparitions from the 1950s, flip-flopping determinations of supernaturality continued for 70 years.

The revised norms incorporate a way to sidestep the declaration of supernaturalness, and hopefully avoid the embarrassment of being called out for condoning a hoax later on. The rules provide a way for the Church to discern if the phenomena show the following: signs of divine action, conflict with teachings, problems or risks in appreciating the events, and if the events should be promoted. As a general rule, the church would not declare that the phenomena are certainly “supernatural”. That’s convenient.

From my superficial reading of this, and from knowing a bit about supernatural claims, it’s obvious that the church as the authority in religious matters is pressured to make a declaration about the incident. In doing so, they influence the attention, crowds, and donations that may result. It’s a big responsibility!

The Intro cites that, in the past, some Bishops wanted to make statement about the events by saying, “I confirm the absolute truth of the facts” and “the faithful must undoubtedly consider as true…”. This was a form of coercion deemed problematic, particularly if it was weakly supported or conflicted with other teachings. With the new procedure, the Bishop is still tasked with examining the cases and making the decision, which then goes for approval to a higher department. He can’t make public statements about the authenticity or nature. If things move fast with the public, the Bishop has to move faster and prevent misinformation from spreading. It does take some responsibility away from the Bishop who might want to promote it for local benefit. It also might relieve them from making a very touchy conclusion.

Options for conclusions (loosely translated into modern speech)

Six potential conclusions of an investigation are given. I have distilled the (English) text into colloquial language or “in a nutshell” translation:

Nihil obstat (Nothing hinders) – We’re not saying it’s supernatural but it could be the Holy Spirit at work, which we believe can do fancy-schmancy things. So far, it seems harmless so feel free to get excited about it, including making a trip to see for yourself. Have fun, but don’t go nuts. (Expect this new can’t-lose option to be put into heavy rotation.)

Prae oculis habeatur (It should be kept in mind) – There are supernatural vibes happening, but some aspects are sus. Really, don’t go nuts.

Curatur (It is taken care of) – Ok, you’ve gone nuts. The horse has left the barn before we could close the door and, if we aren’t careful, we could cause a ruckus. Call in the fixers.

Sub mandato (Requires special vigilance) – This is overall great, but someone is using this event for their own gain — we are going to make them a deal they can’t refuse to shut it down.

Prohibetur et obstruatur (Should be discouraged) – Oh boy, this could blow up in our faces. Send in the special forces to shut this s*** down now.

Declaratio de non supernaturalitate (It is declared not supernatural)- Everyone go back to your business, nothing to see here. Put the nonsense to bed and we wipe our hands of it.

These aren’t altogether unreasonable. Sure, the paranormal skeptics will make fun of this framework, but context is important. All people don’t live by laws of rationalism and scientific authority and we’re not going to get there anytime soon. Specifically, however, the norms do mention use of scientific assessments, which is a plus. The norms incorporate processes like using scientific tests on “tears” or blood. The text includes the following regarding the investigation phase of objects: “The aim of this investigation is to reach a scientific, doctrinal, and canonical assessment of the objects to aid in the subsequent evaluation.”

In conclusion, this is a decent process (in context) surrounded by the expected religious trappings and doctrinal language that isn’t going to put a damper on a sensational claim if it gets people back into churches. Notably, the nihiil obstat gives the religious officials a way off the hook by stating: We’re not going to declare it’s supernatural but, just saying, sometimes the Holy Spirit can work in supernatural ways. Maybe this is one of those times, but we can’t quite decide.

All policies like this have to be tried out in the real world and updated as real world conditions change. It might be interesting to watch. Or maybe not. I can’t quite decide. I’ll just equivocate instead.

#belief #miracle #paranormalBelief #Pope #religion #supernatural #Vatican

https://sharonahill.com/?p=8568