#2023dw — Public Fediverse posts

A couple weeks ago, the media were buzzing about an asteroid that had 1/500 odds of hitting Earth in 2046. Now we know the real risk -- the part of the story that doesn't make the headlines. (a short thread 1/n)
#2023DW #asteroids

A couple weeks ago, the media were buzzing about an asteroid that had 1/500 odds of hitting Earth in 2046. Now we know the real risk -- the part of the story that doesn't make the headlines. (a short thread 1/n)
#2023DW #asteroids

Both ~60-meter Near-Earth #Asteroids with possible impacts this century, #2023DW and #2023DZ2, have now been removed - thanks to further astrometry - from the risk list: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html

Both ~60-meter Near-Earth #Asteroids with possible impacts this century, #2023DW and #2023DZ2, have now been removed - thanks to further astrometry - from the risk list: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html

#2023DW is now off the impact hazard list entirely: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html .

#2023DZ2 is down to impact probability 1:38,000,000 in the foreseeable future and will be removed from the hazard list soon.

Again: This happens all the time.

#2023DW is now off the impact hazard list entirely: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html .

#2023DZ2 is down to impact probability 1:38,000,000 in the foreseeable future and will be removed from the hazard list soon.

Again: This happens all the time.

Asteroid folks:

Has anyone reported observations of #2023DW or #2023DZ2 other than astrometry?

I have not yet found reports of lightcurves or spectra.

Asteroid folks:

Has anyone reported observations of #2023DW or #2023DZ2 other than astrometry?

I have not yet found reports of lightcurves or spectra.

The impact probability of #asteroid #2023DZ2 (in 2026) has now shrunk to one in 71,000 or one in 530,000 according to further calculations by JPL and ESA, respectively, using astrometry from 14 January til today. (And #2023DW has no longer any chance to collide with Earth in 2046).

The impact probability of #asteroid #2023DZ2 (in 2026) has now shrunk to one in 71,000 or one in 530,000 according to further calculations by JPL and ESA, respectively, using astrometry from 14 January til today. (And #2023DW has no longer any chance to collide with Earth in 2046).

With today's orbit update; the impact probability for #2023DW is down to one potential impact in 2049 with probability 1:22,000,000 that has not yet been ruled out.

#2023DZ2 is down to 1:71,000.

With today's orbit update; the impact probability for #2023DW is down to one potential impact in 2049 with probability 1:22,000,000 that has not yet been ruled out.

#2023DZ2 is down to 1:71,000.

Nuovo #asteroide in cima alla lista dei più pericolosi: #2023DZ2 ha un diametro di 60 metri e una possibilità su 621 di colpire la Terra il 27 marzo 2026. Scende al 5° posto #2023DW: nuovi calcoli indicano una probabilità di impatto di 1/5847 il 14/2/2046
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

Nuovo #asteroide in cima alla lista dei più pericolosi: #2023DZ2 ha un diametro di 60 metri e una possibilità su 621 di colpire la Terra il 27 marzo 2026. Scende al 5° posto #2023DW: nuovi calcoli indicano una probabilità di impatto di 1/5847 il 14/2/2046
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

With #2023DW now declared mostly harmless, here is the next #asteroid to keep an eye on ... but what is newly discovered - https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K23/K23F12.html - #2023DZ2 (ca. 60 meters in size) up to? https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DZ2 (with observations spanning 17 days until today) sees an #impact probability of 1 in 580 in March 2026 but https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2023DZ2 (lacking astrometry after March 1st) does not confirm this yet.

With #2023DW now declared mostly harmless, here is the next #asteroid to keep an eye on ... but what is newly discovered - https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K23/K23F12.html - #2023DZ2 (ca. 60 meters in size) up to? https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DZ2 (with observations spanning 17 days until today) sees an #impact probability of 1 in 580 in March 2026 but https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2023DZ2 (lacking astrometry after March 1st) does not confirm this yet.

Assessed impact probability for #2023DW is now down to 0.3%.

Updated probability assessments will be automatically posted at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DW .

And we may expect it to go to zero soon.

Assessed impact probability for #2023DW is now down to 0.3%.

Updated probability assessments will be automatically posted at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DW .

And we may expect it to go to zero soon.

With new astrometry the 2046 impact probability of asteroid #2023DW has now fallen to 1 in 3300, and it's thus become a Torino zero case: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DW

With new astrometry the 2046 impact probability of asteroid #2023DW has now fallen to 1 in 3300, and it's thus become a Torino zero case: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2023%20DW

Si riduce il rischio che l'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW colpisca la Terra il giorno di San Valentino 2046. Dopo nuove osservazioni la probabilità di impatto è scesa da 1/432 a 1/1584
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

Si riduce il rischio che l'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW colpisca la Terra il giorno di San Valentino 2046. Dopo nuove osservazioni la probabilità di impatto è scesa da 1/432 a 1/1584
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

"Don’t panic over the risk of an asteroid smashup in 2046" by @cosmiclog / @alanboyle - News about #asteroid #2023DW is tentative, not cause for panic. New observations will tighten orbit estimate, which usually eliminates a collision. https://cosmiclog.com/2023/03/13/dont-panic-over-the-risk-of-an-asteroid-smashup-in-2046/ #LowFlyingRocks #astronomy

"Don’t panic over the risk of an asteroid smashup in 2046" by @cosmiclog / @alanboyle - News about #asteroid #2023DW is tentative, not cause for panic. New observations will tighten orbit estimate, which usually eliminates a collision. https://cosmiclog.com/2023/03/13/dont-panic-over-the-risk-of-an-asteroid-smashup-in-2046/ #LowFlyingRocks #astronomy

Is there a chance that an asteroid known as #2023DW will smack us on Valentine's Day 2046? That risk assessment is based on how little we know about the asteroid's orbit - a knowledge gap that will surely be rectified in the weeks ahead. To quote the immortal words of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: DON'T PANIC! https://cosmiclog.com/2023/03/13/dont-panic-over-the-risk-of-an-asteroid-smashup-in-2046/ #Space #Asteroids

Is there a chance that an asteroid known as #2023DW will smack us on Valentine's Day 2046? That risk assessment is based on how little we know about the asteroid's orbit - a knowledge gap that will surely be rectified in the weeks ahead. To quote the immortal words of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: DON'T PANIC! https://cosmiclog.com/2023/03/13/dont-panic-over-the-risk-of-an-asteroid-smashup-in-2046/ #Space #Asteroids

Assessed asteroid impact probabilities often rise a bit as the uncertainty region shrinks, and then promptly go to zero as the Earth ends up outside of it.

Per https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/faq.html .

#2023DW

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RT @Josep_Trigo
Well the new astrometric data is increasing a bit its probability of impact (now 1 in 537). Nothing to worry yet, but a good example of the need to keep the telescopic coverage of these asteroids: https:…
https://twitter.com/Josep_Trigo/status/1634940264535162883

Assessed asteroid impact probabilities often rise a bit as the uncertainty region shrinks, and then promptly go to zero as the Earth ends up outside of it.

Per https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/faq.html .

#2023DW

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RT @Josep_Trigo
Well the new astrometric data is increasing a bit its probability of impact (now 1 in 537). Nothing to worry yet, but a good example of the need to keep the telescopic coverage of these asteroids: https:…
https://twitter.com/Josep_Trigo/status/1634940264535162883

On 14th February 2046, an asteroid measuring 50 metres in diameter approaches the Earth-Moon system at high speed.

Read more:

https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2046.htm#asteroid #2023dw #asteroid #asteroids

On 14th February 2046, an asteroid measuring 50 metres in diameter approaches the Earth-Moon system at high speed.

Read more:

https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2046.htm#asteroid #2023dw #asteroid #asteroids

@michael_w_busch Yup, odds are a collision will be ruled out. But at some point a potential impact will be confirmed. #2023DW still wouldn't be reason to panic. It's estimated a little smaller than the 1908 Tunguska asteroid, which is a serious hazard. 2046 is more than enough time to prevent an impact. Humanity has already practiced redirecting a bigger asteroid, Dimorphos, which #NASADART hit in 2022.

@michael_w_busch Yup, odds are a collision will be ruled out. But at some point a potential impact will be confirmed. #2023DW still wouldn't be reason to panic. It's estimated a little smaller than the 1908 Tunguska asteroid, which is a serious hazard. 2046 is more than enough time to prevent an impact. Humanity has already practiced redirecting a bigger asteroid, Dimorphos, which #NASADART hit in 2022.

Lettura consigliata per chi vuole approfondire la notizia dell'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW, che il 14 febbraio 2046 potrebbe colpire la Terra. Potrebbe generare un evento simile a quello di #Tunguska ma per fortuna è improbabile che accada
https://asteroidiedintorni.blog/2023/03/10/2023-dw-impatto-improbabile/

Lettura consigliata per chi vuole approfondire la notizia dell'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW, che il 14 febbraio 2046 potrebbe colpire la Terra. Potrebbe generare un evento simile a quello di #Tunguska ma per fortuna è improbabile che accada
https://asteroidiedintorni.blog/2023/03/10/2023-dw-impatto-improbabile/

Initial news of a potential 2046 impact by #asteroid #2023DW is only tentative. In previous cases, further observations narrowed orbits to eliminate a collision. If not, we can move it: #NASADART hit a bigger asteroid in 2022 for practice. Stay tuned. #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks

Initial news of a potential 2046 impact by #asteroid #2023DW is only tentative. In previous cases, further observations narrowed orbits to eliminate a collision. If not, we can move it: #NASADART hit a bigger asteroid in 2022 for practice. Stay tuned. #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks

"Newly discovered asteroid the size of a swimming pool has a 1-in-600 chance of colliding with Earth, NASA says" by @LiveScience / @BeardSpeck - More observations needed to determine if #Asteroid #2023DW will impact Earth in 2046. https://www.livescience.com/newly-discovered-asteroid-the-size-of-a-swimming-pool-has-a-1-in-600-chance-of-colliding-with-earth-nasa-says #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks

"Newly discovered asteroid the size of a swimming pool has a 1-in-600 chance of colliding with Earth, NASA says" by @LiveScience / @BeardSpeck - More observations needed to determine if #Asteroid #2023DW will impact Earth in 2046. https://www.livescience.com/newly-discovered-asteroid-the-size-of-a-swimming-pool-has-a-1-in-600-chance-of-colliding-with-earth-nasa-says #astronomy #LowFlyingRocks

Newly spotted 50-meter #asteroid tops #Risk List

"... #scientists say that a 49-meter-wide asteroid discovered last week is currently calculated to have a 1-in-625 chance of hitting our #planet in a couple of decades from now.

The rock, called #2023DW, now sits atop the #EuropeanSpaceAgency’s Risk List as the only one with a '1' rating on the #TorinoScale, which is used for categorizing the impact hazard of #NearEarthObjects."

https://www.digitaltrends.com/space/newly-spotted-50-meter-asteroid-tops-risk-list/

Newly spotted 50-meter #asteroid tops #Risk List

"... #scientists say that a 49-meter-wide asteroid discovered last week is currently calculated to have a 1-in-625 chance of hitting our #planet in a couple of decades from now.

The rock, called #2023DW, now sits atop the #EuropeanSpaceAgency’s Risk List as the only one with a '1' rating on the #TorinoScale, which is used for categorizing the impact hazard of #NearEarthObjects."

https://www.digitaltrends.com/space/newly-spotted-50-meter-asteroid-tops-risk-list/

L'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW, scoperto da pochi giorni, potrebbe colpire la Terra il giorno di San Valentino del 2046. La probabilità che accada è 1 su 625. In questo momento è in cima all'elenco degli oggetti più pericolosi
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

L'#asteroide di 50 metri di diametro #2023DW, scoperto da pochi giorni, potrebbe colpire la Terra il giorno di San Valentino del 2046. La probabilità che accada è 1 su 625. In questo momento è in cima all'elenco degli oggetti più pericolosi
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

For those unaware:

#2023DW will be observable for the rest of 2023 March. The potential impact in 2046 is likely to be ruled out.

If it should not be; 2023 DW comes back in 2026 March and the potential impact will almost certainly be ruled out then.

This happens all the time.

For those unaware:

#2023DW will be observable for the rest of 2023 March. The potential impact in 2046 is likely to be ruled out.

If it should not be; 2023 DW comes back in 2026 March and the potential impact will almost certainly be ruled out then.

This happens all the time.

For more information about asteroid 2023 DW, and about the actual risks of asteroid impacts, read this very informative thread by @SquigglyVolcano:
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RT @SquigglyVolcano
THE VALENTINE’S DAY ASTEROID SCARE

Here’s everything you need to know about asteroid 2023 DW, in one thread.

#2023DW
https://twitter.com/SquigglyVolcano/status/1633871109861920769

For more information about asteroid 2023 DW, and about the actual risks of asteroid impacts, read this very informative thread by @SquigglyVolcano:
---
RT @SquigglyVolcano
THE VALENTINE’S DAY ASTEROID SCARE

Here’s everything you need to know about asteroid 2023 DW, in one thread.

#2023DW
https://twitter.com/SquigglyVolcano/status/1633871109861920769

In Americans will use anything but #metric news..
Olympic Pool-Sized #Asteroid Has ‘Very Small Chance of Impacting Earth’, #NASA Says
Newly-discovered asteroid #2023DW has a 1-in-625 chance of colliding with Earth in 2046, according to current estimates
https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkaezv/asteroid-has-very-small-chance-of-hitting-earth-nasa-says

In Americans will use anything but #metric news..
Olympic Pool-Sized #Asteroid Has ‘Very Small Chance of Impacting Earth’, #NASA Says
Newly-discovered asteroid #2023DW has a 1-in-625 chance of colliding with Earth in 2046, according to current estimates
https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkaezv/asteroid-has-very-small-chance-of-hitting-earth-nasa-says

PS on Twitter: "#2023DW. With just 3 days of arc, I found about 1 in 400 chance of impact on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Surely this possibility will soon be ruled out, however, as an exercise, I calculated where the asteroid might fall if this possibility occurred. https://t.co/ldlSYJMvMz" / Twitter https://twitter.com/Piero_Sicoli/status/1631229473570914304?s=20

PS on Twitter: "#2023DW. With just 3 days of arc, I found about 1 in 400 chance of impact on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Surely this possibility will soon be ruled out, however, as an exercise, I calculated where the asteroid might fall if this possibility occurred. https://t.co/ldlSYJMvMz" / Twitter https://twitter.com/Piero_Sicoli/status/1631229473570914304?s=20