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91 results for “tomaszwozniak”
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
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🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
-
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Rather not! I don’t know! What do you think? 🤷♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑 My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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✨⭐ Here it comes! A new working paper with fantastic Fei Shang. That's another methodological paper for the R package bsvars! 🩷💛 Just have a look at the abstract! Rest assured we provide solid backing for each of them 🦾💪
More details coming up soon.
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Alright! Today we premiered the logo of my subject Quantitative Methods 1. Ofc, it presents linear regression output. My question to you is: what's the applied problem we're talking about here? Can you guess?
Reproduction scripts: https://github.com/donotdespair/naklejki/tree/master/qm1
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👽 There it is! 👾 Our new and shiny paper for the Journal of Econometrics! 🤖
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106107 🚀In this paper:
✅ we provide general conditions for partial identification of Structural VARs through heteroskedasticity
✅ we show that it's great for analysing fiscal policy effects on the economy
✅ it's the methodological paper for my bsvars package👇
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Hey! Save the date as my new presentation for fantastic 🇺🇦Workshops for Ukraine 🇺🇦 by Dariia Mykhailyshyna is coming up on Sep 25! And it's about:
💙 Intro to C++ programming for R applications for Econometricians 💛
Register following the instructions at: https://sites.google.com/view/dariia-mykhailyshyna/main/r-workshops-for-ukraine#h.54unp6nxuu7k
Nice! ❤️🇺🇦
#IsupportUkraine #UKR #cpp4Rapp #rstats #econometrics #Rcpp #RcppArmadillo
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It was super cool to visit Macau for the first time and present at the SETA conference! 😎 So many interesting researchers to meet and presentations to watch! ...and to share our essential evidence for Time Varying Identification of Structural VARs! 📊
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Alright! ✨ The teaching semester is over and it was so cool to work with such brilliant first-year students 👩🏫 on Quantitative Method 1 👩💻 at the @unimelb We covered quite some essential topics, and now... I can't wait for the Monday's exam! 🚀
Good luck, everybody! In culo alla balena! 🤗
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And here comes the HEX sticker of my cash rate forecasting website, where I provide codes and forecasts from the predictive system!
That's a hydra plot!
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It’s a RAISE! And maybe for the better! Inflation readings consistently outside of RBA’s target convinced everybody about the inevitability of the RAISEs. That’s what my forecasts capture. The current cash rate value is decisively outside of the predictive interval and the mean indicates an increase in its value. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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It's definitely a possibility! 🤷♀️ That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. 🤷♂️ And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain 🤷
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This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀 The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value, but they include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease.
My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣
⭐ My system predicted last twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐
This time it predicted a decisive CUT but the RBA kept the cash rate at the current level. That's OK!
After another cut, I'll write more about the mid-to-long-term trajectories for cash rate.
In the meantime, enjoy my gif 💜 💙
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👽 Third time lucky! The forecasts from my predictive system indicate another 3️⃣ CUT. The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value. 🤖 They include a 25bp cut, though. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease. 📉
👾 My system predicted correctly last 12 decisions. Will 13 become my lucky number? 🚀
🌐 These forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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😎 In line with expert opinions and market expectations, the combined forecasts from my models indicate a decisive CUT 📉 of the cash rate in May. The predictive intervals do not include the rate’s current value and include a 25bp cut ✅ All the bond yield curve models’ predictions align with these projections, and those that rely more on exchange rates or cash rate persistence do not.