#tigge — Public Fediverse posts

@JZ_Lpz
Interessant!
Ich wollte das Maximum des derzeit physikalisch Möglichen an Starkregen in Europa herausfinden. Dafür hab ich beim TIGGE Archiv vom ECMWF die 50 Ensemblemember mit all ihren "pertubed" Forecasts runtergeladen und laufende 3Tagessummen aufsummiert.
Man kann bei TIGGE auch andere Modelle runterladen, aber ich nahm #ECMWF, weil ich halt nicht besser wusste. Außerdem noch vom original 0.5x0.5 grid auf 1x1 interpoliert, um Plattenplatz u Zeit zu sparen. Auch ne schlechte Idee gewesen, da die Maximalwerte dabei verloren gegen.

Das Ergebnis war extrem ... unbeindruckend. Das Maximum aller 3-Tagessummen seit 2020 lag in der Nordost -Türkei, im Oktober 2024.
Der 1x1 Gridpunkt Valencia waren (aus dem Kopf) bloß 300mm oder so.

Um das heute physikalisch Mögliche bei Starkregen mal annähernd abzubilden, sollte ich also pertubed #GFS-Member in Originalauflösung seit 2020 runterladen und 3Tagessummen bilden?
Ah jee... das dauert wirklich ewig. Einmal das Bereitstellen durch #TIGGE, und dann vor allem auch das Processing auf meinem Läppi...

Kannst Du das nicht mal für uns tun und dann als Clickable Europakarte auf Eure Webseite stellen?

@rahmstorf
Impressive study, thank you. What made you choose monthly means, tho?
It is imaginable that a month has 3 events with what counts as heatwaves in a latitude band, interrupted by thunderstorms which cool the area down.
As a result, the month wouldn't appear on an index for extreme temperature. Yet the physiological stress on living beings and on hard infrastructure was enormous, with, say, lasting impact on local biodiversity, crops, and building&transport safety.

We haven't experienced yet what today's angry weather is physically capable of in "perfect storm" conditions. And what we don't know frightens me.

Potsdam's September 4th 2024 was the first one with higher daily max temperature than Sep 4 in 1895. Meaning, the 1895 extreme was physically possible already in a non-angry weather.
That "perfect storm" only occurred once - until 2 days ago, when the record was broken.
But 2 days ago was not a "perfect Sept 4th storm", I assume.
What would the extreme have been in perfect conditions?

A single daily max isn't so dangerous, ofc, unless paired with suitably risky humidity. And a heatwave is. And extreme rainfall.
So I'm asking: can we take the absolute maximum values any weather forecast ensemble member has ever computed to be physically possible in a particular location,
and put them in a clickable map?

I did ask Karsten Schwanke and then ECMWF. Neither wanted to. But ECMWF gave me a #opendata URL to past forecast member outputs called #TIGGE https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/TIGGE/TIGGE+archive

It's only, if I even can make sense of the data, I still wouldn't be able to make the analysis results available on the internet in a clickable map, so others can also also lower their fears by seeing/knowing how angry weather can get where they are today.

Look. These high September temperatures in Greifswald and Potsdam had already been physically possible 110 to 130 years ago, when #GlobalWarming was at ±0°C.
It merely only happened once.

And today.

But we haven't experienced yet what the physically possible is in today's CO2-charged weather.
Knowing this would be very valuable regarding #climate adaptation.

Do you know where we can get such information on today's physically possible?

By exporting the maxima from each Forecast Ensemble Member since 2020. 💡
A clickable map in a 1°by1° land-only grid, showing the maxima for °C, rain and stuff like 6-hour sustained °C and relative humidity, or 48hr rain and so on.

I asked the boss of #ECMWF Forecast😁 but they don't want to produce such a clickable map. What they did give me:
a URL to past Ensemble Member data so I can do it myself ! #OpenData https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/TIGGE/TIGGE+archive

Had a quick look at #Tigge but it's too hot for my poor brain to make sense of it. Maybe this winter. Or you?