#rogelj — Public Fediverse posts

The authors also put a Guest Post on CarbonBrief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-to-minimise-the-risks-from-overshooting-the-1-5c-limit/

#Schleussner #Rogelj et al 2024 "Overconfidence in climate overshoot" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9

But I must say, the long thread on Bluesky is worth it. Glad it's not on Twix!

@muellertadzio

The Paris Limit of 1.5°C is defined as "by the end of the century".
The dream goes: we splurge now and later, Greta goes on a diet/gets a tummy tuck.
It's called "overshoot scenario" and all 1.5-scenarios and even most of the below-2C-scenarios have the magicc of carbon removal built in. (By which the excess CO2 to a to-be-determined warming level is removed.)

Joeri Rogelj explains 3 factors (there are more!) why the ease in which society looks at 1.5C_overshoot scenarios is overconfident:

* 1 out of 6 of such model runs do an overshoot by a whopping 0.5C !
* societies face more stress in overshoot from temperature the increase, and as a result, maybe stop CO2 removal altogether !
* exact warming per t CO2 is uncertain !

#Rogelj is the God Of #CarbonBudget and #IPCC lead author in #AR6-WG1.
https://granthaminstitute.com/2023/11/29/overconfidence-in-overshoot/

When you hear of "net zero" target years, what do you think they are communicating?

For example the policy advice in the new paper by, among others, Joeri #Rogelj, Johan Rockström:

"Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissionsby 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. "

What do you make of their year 2100?

Please share 🙂