#rogelj — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #rogelj, aggregated by home.social.
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The Paris Limit of 1.5°C is defined as "by the end of the century".
The dream goes: we splurge now and later, Greta goes on a diet/gets a tummy tuck.
It's called "overshoot scenario" and all 1.5-scenarios and even most of the below-2C-scenarios have the magicc of carbon removal built in. (By which the excess CO2 to a to-be-determined warming level is removed.)Joeri Rogelj explains 3 factors (there are more!) why the ease in which society looks at 1.5C_overshoot scenarios is overconfident:
* 1 out of 6 of such model runs do an overshoot by a whopping 0.5C !
* societies face more stress in overshoot from temperature the increase, and as a result, maybe stop CO2 removal altogether !
* exact warming per t CO2 is uncertain !#Rogelj is the God Of #CarbonBudget and #IPCC lead author in #AR6-WG1.
https://granthaminstitute.com/2023/11/29/overconfidence-in-overshoot/