#noestimates — Public Fediverse posts

@aeva

hashtag #noestimates

#NoEstimates

"The accuracy of the forecasts has meant that when delivery dates aren't soon enough for a client, no one questions the accuracy of the forecasts. Instead, we get creative in ways to deliver sooner."

#noestimates #noguessing #justmath #classic

https://www.industriallogic.com/blog/reckoning-with-reality-with-probabilistic-forecasting/

This article illustrates a classic problem with the common use of #velocity as a metric.

https://betterteams.fm/articles/2019/06/Velocity-Escape-this-Pitfall/

#noestimates #escapevelocity

„How I estimate work as a staff software engineer“

https://www.seangoedecke.com/how-i-estimate-work/

»When I estimate, I extract the range my manager is looking for, and only then do I go through the code and figure out what can be done in that time. I never come back with a flat “two weeks” figure. Instead, I come back with a range of possibilities, each with their own risks, and let my manager make that tradeoff.«

Good article about estimating software projects or changes in software projects.

#NoEstimates

Estimation. The year starts with a conversation on why two people asked to estimate the same thing of testing come up with two entirely different estimates.

I was working with #NoEstimates so long that this "know how much you plan on invoicing us" is sometimes exhausting, especially when my personal metrics show that that portion of work I do before I am allowed to do the work is 32 to 39.

This article illustrates a classic problem with the common use of #velocity as a metric.

https://betterteams.fm/articles/2019/06/Velocity-Escape-this-Pitfall/

#noestimates #escapevelocity

@testobsessed #NoEstimates

@storchp @scrumschau #NoEstimates - Velocity ist IMMER kontraproduktiv

📊 "AI makes estimation more accurate!"
Wrong problem. Estimation is flawed because it ignores variability & creates false precision.
AI can't consider code quality, hidden dependencies, or team dynamics.
Real value of estimation? Team conversations that build shared understanding.
#NoEstimates #Scrum
https://agilepainrelief.com/blog/gen-ai-and-the-feature-factory-automating-away-collaboration/

@tottinge Estimation of software tasks is not difficult, it is mathematically impossible (J.P.Lewis, ACM 2001).
It is not that humans are bad at estimating (though they are), it is not that they need a better system of task estimation, it is that estimation is completely useless and a waste of time and effort.
Instead apply predictive forecasting and Monte Carlo analysis q.v. Vasco Duarte #NoEstimates

An die Engeneering-Bubble: Was haltet ihr von #NoEstimates?

https://noestimates.org/blog/

@mlevison Estimates are waste.
#NoEstimates

@gbip @ttuegel it is very creatively called #NoEstimates :D

Story Points не работают? И другие мифы про оценку задач, в которые мы почему-то верим

Про Story Points можно услышать что угодно. На одной конференции спикер всерьёз говорил: «Story Points — это плохо. Не используйте их вообще. Плохая практика». Но почему столько хейта? Неужели всё действительно так плохо? Или дело не в Story Points, а в том, как именно их используют? Меня зовут Семён, я тимлид в МТС Аналитике, бывший Java-разработчик, сертифицированный Scrum Master и преподаватель курса по Java в МФТИ. Веду блог. За годы работы много раз видел, как команды мучаются с оценками задач. В этой статье расскажу, за что критикуют оценки, чем отличаются человеко-часы от футболок и Story Points, когда их стоит применять — а когда лучше не мучиться и попробовать NoEstimates. И почему отношение к Story Points столь неоднозначно.​ Будет и про типовые ошибки, и про работающие подходы — чтобы планировать задачи без лишней боли. Спойлер: идеального способа оценки задач не существует. Зато есть вполне рабочие способы не сойти с ума и при этом нормально планировать работу.

https://habr.com/ru/companies/oleg-bunin/articles/908522/

#story_points #noestimates #черный_лебедь #критерии_оценки #антипаттерны #scrum

@dectentoo in my own experience I see only a weak correlation between story points and effort; that plus the fact that teams often cargo-cult story pointing as the point of story refinement makes the whole process a misleading waste of time. #NoEstimates and flow/throughput tracking is the way to go in my opinion.

This article illustrates a classic problem with the common use of #velocity as a metric.

https://betterteams.fm/articles/2019/06/Velocity-Escape-this-Pitfall/

#noestimates #escapevelocity

@ulrichkelber #NoEstimates

Roman Estimation looks like an alternative approach to estimating story points, when #NoEstimates is off the table.

https://mdalmijn.com/p/roman-estimation-a-simple-easy-and

Intro to Beyond Estimates with Woody Zuill

https://tube.tchncs.de/w/6EcovQqxYceSrSh94CmaGV

@donnerbella Das einzige was dagegen hilft (macht aber sehr viel Arbeit), ist die Aufgaben kleiner zu schneiden und/oder genauer zu beschreiben.

Oder eben #NoEstimates …

We all know that #Sauron is evil because he permanently asks Lord #Celebrimbor "How fares your progress?" and "How long?"

#NoEstimates

@bbak are you aware of the data behind #noestimates?

Absolutely agree on this. I have never seen anybody producing a valid estimate on a reasonably complex problem/ticket whatever. #noestimates
https://world.hey.com/dhh/software-estimates-have-never-worked-and-never-will-a41a9c71