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American University's Distinguished Professor of History #Allan #Lichtman is offering a tried-and-true formula
that has correctly predicted every presidential election outcome since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election.

In 1991, Lichtman and coauthor #Ken #DeCell published

The 13 Keys to the White House (Madison Books, 1991),

a book laying out the 13-key forecasting system initially developed in 1981 by Lichtman and renowned mathematician #Vladimir #Keilis-#Borok.

They developed the keys based on their analysis of trends in presidential campaigns since 1860.

The 13 keys are simple to use:
♦️if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election
—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win.

The 13 Keys:

🔸Party mandate:
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
🔸Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
🔸Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
🔸Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
🔸Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
🔸Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
🔸Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
🔸Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
🔸Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
🔸Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
🔸Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
🔸Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
🔸Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.