#lichtman — Public Fediverse posts

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American University's Distinguished Professor of History #Allan #Lichtman is offering a tried-and-true formula
that has correctly predicted every presidential election outcome since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election.

In 1991, Lichtman and coauthor #Ken #DeCell published

The 13 Keys to the White House (Madison Books, 1991),

a book laying out the 13-key forecasting system initially developed in 1981 by Lichtman and renowned mathematician #Vladimir #Keilis-#Borok.

They developed the keys based on their analysis of trends in presidential campaigns since 1860.

The 13 keys are simple to use:
♦️if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election
—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win.

The 13 Keys:

🔸Party mandate:
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
🔸Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
🔸Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
🔸Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
🔸Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
🔸Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
🔸Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
🔸Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
🔸Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
🔸Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
🔸Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
🔸Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
🔸Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

US supreme court ‘erred badly’ with Trump ruling, leading US historian says

“The supreme court erred badly based on our amicus brief and our review of history, in claiming that a candidate for federal office can only be disqualified by an act of Congress,” #Allan #Lichtman said, speaking to reporters with three other historians who signed the brief arguing Trump should be removed.
Lichtman is a professor at American University in Washington DC who has 🔸correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, using a system of “keys to the White House” he co-devised.🔸

With Trump closing on the Republican nomination, Lichtman recently said ♦️Joe Biden held five keys to Trump’s three, with five up for grabs.♦️

Most analysts and pollsters give Trump the edge, despite his facing 91 criminal charges (17 for election subversion, 40 for retention of classified documents and 34 over hush-money payments to an adult film star) and suffering multimillion-dollar penalties in civil suits regarding his business affairs and a rape allegation a judge called “substantially true”.
But with Colorado’s attempt to remove Trump from the ballot rejected by the supreme court – ensuring the same fate for efforts in Maine and Illinois – he is poised to secure the Republican nomination and potentially return to office.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/05/us-supreme-court-trump-ruling?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other