#2024yr4 — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #2024yr4, aggregated by home.social.
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JWST Observations of Asteroid #2024YR4 Rule Out a 2032 Lunar Impact and Demonstrate a New Regime for Planetary Defense Follow-up: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/ae6a95 -> interview with the first two authors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCdqIf7zgLI
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#Asteroiden #1997NC1 #2024YR4 #Astronomie
https://t3n.de/news/asteroiden-nasa-erde-abwehr-ideen-1691154/
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2024YR4 will NOT hit the moon.
Finlay is skeptical.
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#2024yr4 #spacenews #spacenewsdaily #hwatweeklypodcast #hwatweekly -
☄️La probabilité d’un impact de l’astéroïde #2024YR4 avec la Lune est désormais nulle.
Détails : https://reves-d-espace.com/la-probabilite-impact-de-asteroide-2024-yr4-avec-la-lune-est-desormais-nulle
📷 NASA, ESA, CSA, A. Rivkin (JHUAPL) et J. de Wit (MIT), position et incertitudes associées pour l'astéroïde 2024 YR4 le 26 février 2026 et de la Lune (cercle rouge). -
So there is an upcoming novel about #asteroid #2024YR4 which has just sold its movie rights: https://gizmodo.com/the-author-behind-the-social-network-has-an-asteroid-movie-coming-out-2000730674 - wonder what will happen when the producers of #TheLastOrbit eventually figure out that it's not only no risk for Earth anymore (as has been known for a year now, of course) but also not for the Moon. Talk about bad timing ... ;-)
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"Phew! NASA Rules Out Asteroid Smashup on the Moon in 2032" by @universetoday / @alanboyle - Astronomical observations of #asteroid #2024YR4, including from #NASA #WebbSpaceTelescope🔭 #JWST, refined its orbit estimate to rule out impact with the #Moon on its Dec 22, 2032 flyby. Possibility of Earth impact on that pass was already ruled out in April 2025. The 60m diameter rock would be a serious threat. https://www.universetoday.com/articles/phew-nasa-rules-out-asteroid-smashup-on-the-moon-in-2032 #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
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Erst jetzt gefundene alte Bilder und ganz neue Aufnahmen von Webb haben unabhängig voneinander die Bahn des Asteroiden #2024YR4 erheblich genauer gemacht - und ein Impakt auf dem Mond im Jahr 2032, der zuvor noch eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4% hatte, ist nun definitiv ausgeschlossen: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 bzw. https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/ und https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_will_not_impact_the_Moon
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New observations of the #NearEarthAsteroid #2024YR4 with the #Webb Telescope are now also, like the recently discovered precovery positions, firmly excluding a crash into the Moon: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/ - all the studies (and speculations) about consequences for Earth of such a lunar impact are now merely an exercise. But one day ... ;-)
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JWST confirms that #2024YR4 will miss the Moon in 2032.
And apparently also confirming that the potential precovery observation was indeed in the right spot.
2024 YR4 will not come so close to Earth and Moon again until at least the mid-2050s.
But its orbit will still have a very low minimum distance from Earth's.
For a longer-term trajectory prediction; wait until after the 2032 flyby.
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Today on the #arXiv :
Deen & Lam 2026, "2024 YR4: Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data" - https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449
This paper presents an archival search of old telescope images of #2024YR4 . It just happened to fall in gaps of several surveys.
But Deen & Lam identify one marginal potential detection from Palomar in 2016. If real, it would exclude the potential lunar impact in 2032.
I await the results of the latest JWST observations, which should be far clearer.
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#2024YR4 - Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 -> "These candidate detections, not accounting for any currently-undetected Yarkovsky forces, predict a perilune of 22001 +/- 49 km and a perigee of 277534 +/- 46 km (relative to the center of each respective body) representing an improvement of > 300 times in the approach distance uncertainty above the existing orbit solution and, if confirmed, decisively ruling out a lunar impact in 2032" -> https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/41437
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• @f16.solodisplay.rdaf #WeaponsOfWarWednesday 🫡
On QRA we joined with our #NATO Allies to train together. #airpower #247alert
#flyvevåbnet #forsvaret #danmarkstryghed #f16fightingfalcon #fighterwingskrydstrup #fighterpilot #aviationlovers ##2024yr4
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Today on the #arXiv :
Micheli et al. 2026, “Astrometric follow-up of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino scale level 3 alert” - https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.06890
This paper goes through all of the observations of #2024YR4 after its discovery at the end of 2024 until it became too faint to observe some months into 2025.
The next observations of the asteroid will be happening with JWST over the next couple of weeks.
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"Asteroid 2024 YR4's collision with the moon could create a flash visible from Earth, study finds" by @LiveScience - #Asteroid #2024YR4 was briefly subject of concern until Earth impact was ruled out. It's still being studied for potential impact with the #Moon on Dec 22, 2032. New paper estimates impact areas, all on the side facing Earth. A tiny fraction might be in darkness, visible without optics. https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/asteroid-2024-yr4s-collision-with-the-moon-could-create-a-flash-visible-from-earth-study-finds #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
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An #asteroid could hit the #moon in #2032, scattering debris toward #Earth
There’s about a 4% chance that a building-sized asteroid will hit the moon in 2032. Moreover, there’s about a 1% chance that the asteroid, dubbed #2024YR4, will not only strike the moon but also scatter a multitude of tiny meteorites into near-Earth space, potentially harming satellites and astronauts.
Depending on local conditions, the impact could be visible from Earth
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/asteroid-moon-impact-2032-2024-yr4
https://archive.ph/rEcjX -
Today on the #arXiv:
Devogèle et al. 2025, "Rapid-response characterization of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino Scale 3 alert" - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09405
Reviewing the case of #2024YR4 as we approach the first anniversary of its discovery.
And, to emphasize, it will miss the Earth.
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Studies of #2024YR4's ☄️ potential lunar impact 💥 effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening #astronauts and #spacecraft. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12351
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There are several more presentations at #EPSCDPS2025 on the case of #2024YR4: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EPSC-DPS2025/session/55136.
For those unaware:
2024 YR4 will not impact Earth, but has a chance of impacting the Moon in 2032.
The next data expected will be by @asrivkin et al. in 2026.
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QT Andy Rivkin @asrivkin
2025 August 22Quick FYI--while the next ground-based observations of YR4 won't be until 2028, there's a JWST DDT program that was recently accepted for observations this coming February. So hopefully we'll have a more definitive answer by this time next year!
https://bsky.app/profile/asrivkin.bsky.social/post/3lwytwzxgf22c -
Gerade habe ich mir den 22. Dezember 2032 im Kalender eingetragen. Dann wird der Asteroid #2024 YR4 für ein wenig Wirbel sorgen.
Asteroid könnte 2032 zum Problem für Satelliten werden -
Bahnablenkung, Gravity tractor, PI-Methode: Was hinter den Ansätzen steckt, um Asteroiden vom Einschlag auf der Erde abzuhalten, lest ihr in unserer Analyse.
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Bahnablenkung, Gravity tractor, PI-Methode: Was hinter den Ansätzen steckt, um Asteroiden vom Einschlag auf der Erde abzuhalten, lest ihr in unserer Analyse.
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Bahnablenkung, Gravity tractor, PI-Methode: Was hinter den Ansätzen steckt, um Asteroiden vom Einschlag auf der Erde abzuhalten, lest ihr in unserer Analyse.
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Probability of #Asteroid #2024YR4 hitting the #Moon increases
Scientists improve knowledge by 20% thanks to #JamesWebb #Space #Telescope data
#NASA said data from the #JWST "improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent." The upshot is that there is now a 4.3% possibility that the asteroid will hit the Moon in 7.5 years' time, although it wouldn't alter the natural satellite's orbit.
https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/10/asteroid_2024_yr4_update/