#geopol — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #geopol, aggregated by home.social.
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1. Das Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der Zollunion #EU wurde mit dem Gemeinsamen Markt, #MERCOSUR, und nicht auf nationalstsatlicher Ebene abgeschlossen.
(vgl. früher: EG-Binnenmarkt "2. #Paraguay ist ein Vollmitglied des MERCOSUR.
3. #Ecuador ist nur ein assoziiertes Mitglied, und das hat regionalpolitische Gründe--so etwas gibt es auch in Europa (Neukandidat: Ukraine, z. B.).
Du gehst also von falschen Grundannahmen aus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercosur
Übrigens: außer dem...
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#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #NortheastPassage
...point of the war:
No more oil sales and no more spare parts for the #Russia war machine and economy.
They have succeeded once, why not again?
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #NortheastPassage... #Russian #Icebreaker vessel for the final leg of this merchant fleet to #China. --So far, far away from any #Ukrainian drones or the third #GulfWar.
This could be a big change, unless...
...#Ukraine were to pull of yet another #SiberianPearlHarbor 1), either destroying that convoy or severely ending its manoeuvrability...
Cutting the economic ties with #China is of utmost importance at this...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #China #Russia...as the #UnitedKingdom and #France of operating a kind of shadow fleet themselves."
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https://www.europesays.com/de/1235890/
However, #Russia has been anticipating this reaction at least since 2023, working on a new merchant route through the #Arctic, the #NortheastPassage.
It scored a big success in Oct. 2025, when the first containership used that route to reach the #UK.Presently, the probably largest convoy of merchant ships ever is awaiting a...
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#GeoPol #Shipping #InternationalTrade #OilPrices #Politics #Oanama
Here, you can find the #BackgroundSory for the soaring cost and diminished capacity of the #PanamaCanal:
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#US ended one #ForeverWar in 2020 with withdrawal from Kabul and ended up in two #ForeverWars. One in #Iran and the other in #Ukraine. With no expectations that both wars will be won or will go in a direction which would be beneficial to Washington.
Meanwhile #US now spends on interest payments an amount that is almost equal to its entire defense outlay.
Sheesh, talk about jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
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🦅 The US government just banned Roombas
｢ It’s not coming for your existing Roomba, and companies can keep importing and selling already approved ones. But the government claims that future foreign robots pose a national security risk, and even robovac companies are suddenly being asked to commit to US manufacturing ｣
https://www.theverge.com/policy/972312/us-robot-ban-sweep-up-chinese-vacuums
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#NATO Article 6 excludes #US Pacific territories, like Guam, Hawaii from its ambit. It also excludes all French and British possessions in South America, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, like French Guiana, Diego Garcia, New Caledonia and others. So if any of these territories were to be attacked, #Article5 of NATO cannot be invoked.
Ergo if US goes to war with #China NATO will not help.
If #Guam is obliterated then Article 5 cant be invoked
If #Hawaii is nuked............. -
#Ukraine by striking shipping in #Caspian Sea showed what the Ukraine war is all about. In case of #Taiwan contingency #China will loose access to sea. It will need Oil, Gas, metals, food, etc. which can be met easily by Russia and Central Asia. With Ukraine in NATO, supply from Caspian Sea, Caucuses, Central Asia and Iran can be interdicted.
It is a double pincer movement against China, from the western direction
#IranWar #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #Geopolitics #GeoPol
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#Ukraine crossed a Rubicon by striking shipping in Caspian Sea. This action has potential to turn two regional conflicts into a global conflict. If this reckless strike is not repudiated and invalidated this will set a precedent for China and Russia. Both of them will use this as a precedent to attack any shipping. Globally.
Dont sleep walk into a June-1914 Sarajevo situation.
#IranWar #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #Geopolitics #GeoPol #WWIII #WW3
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Diplomacy is back. Talks are on going. Updated #MOU may be out soon. Or interpretation of the #MoU will be clarified. As long as bombs are not falling, drones are not flying, missiles are not being launched that is a good thing. A welcome development.
#US is back to blockading #Iran. Not clear on how the Caspian Sea coast will be blockaded.
Meanwhile strait of #Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb are blocked.
#IranWar #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #Geopolitics #GeoPol #GeoPolitics
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PS:
"#Greece has deployed a U.S.-made #Patriot air defence battery, operated by #Greek personnel, in #SaudiArabia since 2021 under an agreement to help protect the kingdom's energy infrastructure.
Saturday's interception was the second time that Greek personnel had operated the system."Cc @newsguyusa
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#Iran is connected to #Russia via Caspian Sea and Caucasus corridor. #Iran is connected by land to #China via Central Asia and Russia.
If the expectation is to repeat the playbook used to overthrow Saddam's #Iraq i.e. degrade Iran over a period of a decade via sanctions and No Fly Zones so that the next US president can invade Iran easily, then that might not work
Meanwhile strait of #Hormuz is closed.
#IranWar #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #Geopolitics #Geopol #Geopolitic
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The #MoU has been merely suspended. It has not been nullified. It has not been annulled. It has not been revoked.
Since the #MoU has not been abrogated, expect #US and #Iran to return back to its essence in a few weeks. Once the munitions have been exhausted.
That is the upside. The downside? Economically things are going to get bad. Very bad. For all. Not end of world type bad. Nor global conflict.
#IranWar #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #Geopol #Geopolitics #Geopolitic
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#MoU has been suspended but not abrogated. That is a crucial and significant development.
There was a misunderstanding between the parties about what is there in MoU. While differences are sorted out, strait of #Hormuz remains closed. Maybe #BabElMandeb strait will be closed too.
Both the #US and #Iran are not bound by the MoU. They will be bound to the agreement which comes out of the MoU
#IranWar #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #Geopolitics #GeoPol #GeoPolitics #Geopolitic
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(7/7)
...might still come either way, given that the #UN estimates that there will be 300mn to 2 billion #ClimateRefugees.
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(6/n)
... for anyone living today.
(There are no Stargates or Warp Drives.)So, if there is to be a future for humanity, there is only one way this might and well for all of us:
All the alleged perpetrators of war crimes or crimes against humanity (and hopefully soon #Ecocide) must be tried at the #Hague.
The alternatives all entail a breakdown of society as we know it. .which...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(5/n)
... astronomer and #Nobel Prize laureate said in a long 2025 #ORF interview:
"...the way things are currently progressing, humanity will not even make it to #Mars [let alone to an extrasolar planet, as #Longtermists crave.]
Like me, he's completely opposed to a "Planet B" approach, meaning, if we wreck Earth 🌍, we can just settle some other planet.
This will not happen, with almost 100% certainty not... -
#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(4/n)
...and now elsewhere,) but the global rise in #Antisemitism was also to be expected.
It can only be hoped, that they finally make the right decision in October when they will decide on the future of #Netanyahu in particular and #Israel's future in general--at the polls.
If human society is to survive, the return to the rules-based system implemented after #WWII is indispensable.
As a famous French...
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#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(3/n)
...apart from some occasional #JerusalemPost headlines, but the global backlash, and even the classification of their military 's deeds as #Genocide, made it very obvious that there would be a reckoning:
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/115129530425980355
It is extremely unfair to all the #Jews in the global #Diaspora who did not have a hand or even opposed the #Israeli regimes actions in #Gaza (and now elsewhere,)...
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#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(2/n)
...to explain how the events
with which the forefathers engage are replicated to some degree in subsequent generations."https://www.emethatorah.com/children-abraham
Christians know this concept from
1 #Maccabees 2:51-53:"51 “Remember the deeds of the fathers, which they did in their generations; and receive great honor and an everlasting name."
There are even other Bible quotes that come to mind.
IDK what the #Israelis were thinking,...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #GeoPol(1/n)
As I was saying a year ago:
"👉This abominable deed will haunt them for generations to come👈 (probably less than the instigated murder of #Christ by the #Roman invasion force at the behest of the #Jerusalem elite, but still.)"
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/114999539193193621
In other words:
"There is a popular #Hebrew phrase which states, "maaseh avot siman lebanim", meaning 👉"the deeds of the fathers are portents for the children." 👈
It is used...
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#Iran's economy is battered. It will need north of 300 billion to get back in shape. #Iran will need to sell 80 billion worth of produce per year for a decade just to build it back. That is provided no money is sent to #Hezbollah, #Hamas, etc. There are indications that Iran has been prioritizing sending money to #Hezbollah and possibly #Houthis even over #IRGC units.
#Ayatollahs have a choice to make.
#IranWar #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #GeoPolitics #GeoPol #Geopolitics
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@AdeptVeritatis
If attacking #Russian refineries is celebrated then there will be those who will celebrate attacking refineries in #Iran, #Saudi, #UAE, etc.If aggression against #Ukraine is unwarranted, which it is regardless of the valid concerns of Russia, then so is the wanted aggression against Iran
There is so much nonsensical violence in the world. Just stop it and discuss it across a table
#IranWar #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #GeoPolitics #GeoPol
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#Ukraine is targeting #Russian oil #refineries and #tankers. Missing from the target list is Russian #LNG tankers and infrastructure. Hmm I wonder why? Who is the biggest #LNG customer of Russia and who has the most to loose in case of a disruption of Russian #LNG supply? Can someone please help shed some light on this?
Does targeting tankers and refineries in any way construe a war crime? #Iran is watching.
#Geopolitics #GeoPols #GeoPol #war #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars
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#EpicFury and #Ukraine have significant bearing on #ROC, aka #Taiwan. #US is unwilling and unable to send ground troops into #Iran and #Ukraine. #US will NOT surge a million or 100000 troops into Taiwan. Taiwan is not a treaty ally of US, regardless of 1979 Taiwan act.
#Iran and #Ukraine can be and are being supplied via land borders. #Taiwan has no land border. Taiwan has very little Oil/Energy and food reserves.
#IranWar #EndlessWar #EndlessWars #ForeverWar #ForeverWars #Geopolitics #GeoPol